Italian Open

[Stanley]

Outright plays (total stake per play):

Raphael Jacquelin to win 22/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power [6 places]
Quite probably the hottest player on the Tour at the moment. He was impressive in finishing 2nd in the Estoril Open de Portugal a month ago, but then came his performances in Asia. In the China Open he led after the first two rounds before finishing 6th and in the Asian Open he was a wire-to-wire winner. He rested last week, so he should certainly improve on his 16th place finish here last year.

Martin Kaymer to win 33/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power [6 places]
Sticking with Kaymer for another week at the same odds and same place terms. He did little wrong other than record a couple of late bogeys in the 2nd round when he had reached a top-5 place and struggled on the greens on Sunday, but he still finished 14th and that is his third consecutive top-15 finish on this Tour. And there is no doubting his potential, so I'll back him at these odds in these weaker European events.

Jyoti Randhawa to win 40/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
Difficult not to be impressed with Randhawa's performance last week. After running up an eight on the 16th hole and shoot 75 in the first round to be in 109th position, he then shot 65, 66, 67 to finish 2nd. When he dropped a shot at the 15th hole on Sunday, it was his first bogey for 47 holes; in the intervening period he had recorded 26 pars and 20 birdies. When the pressure was most intense in the final round, he hit 17 out of 18 greens. He has not played on this course or in Italy previously, but that was also the case last week and given that his previous Tour event outside Asia had been the Dubai Desert Classic when he finished 7th, he should be able to beat this field.

 

[ridle]

Another week, another int. event:

1/5 1-5:
Barham 200/1 SportsTAB
Struver 250/1 SportsTAB
1/4 1-5:
Andersson Hed 150/1 Gen.
Lee S James 300/1 Sportingbet
Lomas 200/1 Totesport
Scarpa 500/1 Sportingbet
Sullivan 300/1 Coral
Webster Shaun P 300/1 General
1-5:
Hepworth 80/1 Centrebet
1/4 1-6:
Spence 200/1 Betinternet

 

[Stanley]

Further outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)

Nick Dougherty to lead after the 1st round 28/1 e.w. @ BetFred
Not a player that I would normally back in the outright markets, but he is better suited to a 1st round leader one. He has, after all, ended his last two starting rounds in 5th and 1st place. No course form, but with a morning tee-time and rain forecast for the afternoon, he could set the pace early once again.

Mark Foster to lead after the 1st round 66/1 e.w. @ Bet365
Foster does have course form with the cut made in both his previous attempts and, like Dougherty, he comes into the event in good form, having finished 11th in Portugal and 4th last week in Spain. And finally, like Dougherty, he skipped the Asian event last month and so should be fresher than some players on view this week. Had been tempted by Bourdy, but these odds look more attractive than the 50/1 on offer for the Frenchman.

 

[lostinamerica]

There are always exceptions, but I feel there's been a persistent theme from this year of popular long shots generally being well adrift by Saturday night. Of course, it's not like it's been a big road to success in other seasons, just that it's been fairly desperate on the whole, IMO. Anyway, not overjoyed to see I'm trotting out too many such selections on my card for this week (I ain't talking about the Mr. ridle variety), but trusting my judgment includes having weighed that aspect in my calculations, so I'm surely hoping "it's" due to turn better rather than worse.

Outrights:

Gregory Havret(66/1) e.w.
- - In my post before the BMW Asian Open, I said, "I've been holding out, more or less, for here and Italy on Havret, and I will be surprised if two months from now I have to say I was dead wrong and Havret wasn't hinting at anything I thought fit with his recent best." After an opening round of 68 had him lying second there, Havret said, "I played well. My game has not been good the last couple of weeks and Jeff Lucquin gave me a few tips yesterday and they were brilliant. I am playing much better and feel very happy.? :mj07:

Emanuele Canonica(66/1) e.w.
- - If I ever went down a list and thought, "He's perfect here," and "He's perfect there," and then rated my choices, this one would be in the discussion near the top.

Jarmo Sandelin(66/1) e.w.
- - More of the same with a popular tip, but having backed Jarmo here last year helps explain why I detected his movement on my radar when I believe it started this year, and have been surmising since over where it could be headed.

Benn Barham(150/1) e.w.
- - The seeds for an eventual encore were firmly planted last year, and could easily sprout this year: http://www.europeantour.com/publish...tid=2006034&infosid=3&pageno=1&reportid=52734

Tom Lehman(66/1) e.w.
- - Maybe the American Ryder Cup captain is taking his appearance seriously, and maybe thankfully he's not set back too far during the early days by some travel lethargy, in which case the course and conditions are right up his alley.

Jonathan Lomas(150/1) e.w.
- - Through the muck, and with a nudge and an assist from Mr. ridle, the birthday boy carries some of my cash here again.

Jamie Spence(150/1) e.w.
- - With a nudge and an assist from Mr. ridle, bumps any play on the Molinari team.

GL