IWM

Jord20

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I am getting pretty short up here. Between 103.25-103.50, I started buying some puts.

This is a bubble, I don't care what anyone says. This whole system is a joke. 1 big pressure cooker manipulated by low rates and excessive money. These high prices are NOT indicative of the real economy. ALL attempts at central planning and money manipulating have failed throughout history. this time will be no different.

I realize equity prices can keep rising on money printing and inflation alone, but I will take my chances of exposure.

GL
 

Jord20

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I stick with this thesis i put in the other thread...

"I think the long gold, short equity trade is going to see it's way into the light soon."

Gold will be a great hedge against rising equity prices (if you are short stocks, like I am now).

IMO, equity prices have zero business going up unless there is massive inflation (higher commodity/gold prices)

I bought some more IWM puts today just now with underlying at 104.70.

I have some long GDXJ... will probably buy gdx and gld on pullbacks.

I'm shorter equities, than I am longer gold stuff
 
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selkirk

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Jord though I could see a pullback, of maybe 10%, hard to see a brutal sell off. there are plenty of problems with the economy and the world wide economies, however central banks will keep rates low, and most major economies are growing though at very slow rates for the most part.

as for American banks, many are traded below worldwide peers, if they trade up on better results and more predictable earnings.

I have put options also but for the most part as insurance to guard against a correction..., cheap insurance.

thanks
selkirk
 

Jord20

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Jord though I could see a pullback, of maybe 10%, hard to see a brutal sell off. there are plenty of problems with the economy and the world wide economies, however central banks will keep rates low, and most major economies are growing though at very slow rates for the most part.

as for American banks, many are traded below worldwide peers, if they trade up on better results and more predictable earnings.

I have put options also but for the most part as insurance to guard against a correction..., cheap insurance.

thanks
selkirk

If your thesis is the "Central Banks' Put," i think we are living on borrowed time. They can't fix the game forever. The "truth" always exposes itself. In the game that is the markets - that truth comes in the form of price.

Creating more currency out of thin air does not creat wealth. The underlying economy is bad. We are up to ears in debt, at the consumer and national level. THis bubble will burst. And you won't be able to get out easy. Kicking the can down the road, debasing currency, and having price controls has NEVER EVER worked for any long period of time. This time is not any different, IMO.

When you create distortions to the real economy, you create malinvestment and bigger problems underneath the surface.

The Central Banks are powerful, so how long this con game can last is obviously unknown. But it is known that it won't last forever.

GL Selkirk
 
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Dead Money

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Point in case of imminent stock market debacle

Point in case of imminent stock market debacle

I know a late twenty something that was until recently a Wall Mart Associate ($9.00 an hour).
After several years of hard work he has built up a small nest egg.

Apparently he quit Wall Mart last month and just put almost all his funds into stocks that his aunt has picked.

Today I asked him if he found a new job.
He replied "Nope, I figure these stocks will double very quickly and I can take the year off."

I am not sure if he lives in his aunt's basement, but if he does, he better get used to it with thinking like that.:0008

I think smart money has gotten out and the Johnny come lately's are being set up for the eventual slaughter to come.
 

stockjockey

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I know a late twenty something that was until recently a Wall Mart Associate ($9.00 an hour).
After several years of hard work he has built up a small nest egg.

Apparently he quit Wall Mart last month and just put almost all his funds into stocks that his aunt has picked.

Today I asked him if he found a new job.
He replied "Nope, I figure these stocks will double very quickly and I can take the year off."

I am not sure if he lives in his aunt's basement, but if he does, he better get used to it with thinking like that.:0008

I think smart money has gotten out and the Johnny come lately's are being set up for the eventual slaughter to come.

Totally agree Money. Retail investors always buy the heaviest at the top of the market. Retail is selling treasuries and safer assets to buy this grossly overpriced market at the wrong time. Professional investors (institutions) and corporate insiders have been steady sellers all year and the last two months (June and July) they sold heavily. Margin debt peaked in July, always a sign of a market top. Profit margins peaked in 2nd qtr, P/E10 of S&P 500 touched 25 last week, these measures are all mean reverting so you know what must come next. I sold out at S&P 1550, got short at 1600, 1650, and again when we hit 1700. It's been lonely, but it's the right play. Everyone is complacent and believe the Fed has their back with the Bernanke put. The fact is the Fed has blown another bubble and the further this mirage is allowed to continue, the harder the fall will be. Yeah, the Fed has our back.... until they don't.
 

Jord20

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Good run. IF I get one more rally up near 103, I am going to unload short again. XLF above 20 is still a great sale as well.

I will wait to hopefully scoop up GLD and the miners at bargain prices once this fake market sees some reality.
 
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Dead Money

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Jim Rogers on markets

Jim Rogers on markets

Always considered him a Financial "Sharp"

Entire article here..
http://www.goldcore.com/goldcore_blog/gold-much-much-higher-syria-war-and-market-panic-jim-rogers

Astute investor, Jim Rogers has warned overnight in an interview with Tara Joseph of Reuters that oil and gold will go much, much higher? due to ?market panic? regarding Syria and the coming ?end of free money?:

Jim Rogers: Well, Tara, I own oil, I own gold, I own things like that and if there is going to be a war, and it sounds like America is desperate to have a war, they're gonna go much, much higher. Stocks are gonna go down, some of the markets that I'm sure are already going down, commodities are gonna go up. I mean, yeah, some of the things I own all make a lot of money. It's, I'm not particularly keen on war, I assure you, but it sounds like they want it.
Tara Joseph: Is your main concern about supply chain disruptions for oil? Is that where we'll see the biggest moves?

Jim Rogers: Well, that's where we'll see huge moves but the problem with war, Tara, is -- and I'm not the first to know this -- no matter how well the plans are made, strange things happen in war and who knows what unintended consequences will come. But I do know that throughout history whenever you had war, things like food prices have gone up a lot, energy prices have gone up a lot, copper price, lead prices: you know, all of these things go up a lot whenever there's been a war in the past.
TJ: Meanwhile, moving farther to the Far East, we're seeing of a mini crisis around Asia. The Fed stimulus unwinding really affecting confidence in India and Indonesia in particular. Do you think this is a short-term blip or do you think these countries face very rough waters ahead?

Jim Rogers: Of course they face rough waters ahead, Tara. You know, India and Indonesia - Turkey too, which is part of Asia - all of them have huge balance of trade deficits, which they've been able to finance with all this artificial free money that's been floating around. Now, the artificial sea of liquidity is going to end some day and when it ends, all the people depending on this free money and this sea of liquidity are gonna suffer. Whether its this week or this year or next year, they're all going to suffer.
TJ: We're already, though, Jim seeing sort of the unwinding of what happens when there's fears of that stimulus coming out. What's next for these countries? Where does it go from here?

Watch the interview in full here. If the video does not display correctly, please click on this link.



Jim Rogers: Tara, we, we haven't seen much of anything yet. I mean, normally, in bear markets things go down 40% to 80% and people give up. They throw the shares out the window and they say, "I never want to invest again as long as I live." Sure, we've seen some declines. Have we seen panic, have we seen terror? Absolutely not. Not in any markets yet.
TJ: Are you expecting panic? We've seen mini crises do you see more panic?

Jim Rogers: Yes, of course. When, when, when this artificial sea of liquidity ends we're gonna see panic in a lot of markets, including in the US, including in West developed markets.

I mean, Tara, this is the first time in recorded history that all major central banks have been flooding the market with artificial money printing at the same time. They've all been trying to debase their currencies at the same time.
This has never happened in recorded history. When this ends its gonna be a huge mess.
 
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DuckDogs

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Jord - any thoughts on the market impacts with that jobs report today? Doesn't seem like we will see any tapering for now - will the bull keep running?
 

Jord20

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Jord - any thoughts on the market impacts with that jobs report today? Doesn't seem like we will see any tapering for now - will the bull keep running?

We may some minor tapering. They will never stop printing money, debasing the currency, and setting price control on rates. This is what Central banks do. They print money so that they can spend, spend, spend, and enrich the big banksters, oil companies, and defense contractors. They print money so they can fight senseless wars... and we all know that War is the health of the state. They create inflation so they can wipe out the middle class and create a nation of welfare recipients that depend on the mighty state. They keep rates low, so people make risky investments and spend money they don't have. This creates mass malinvestment. They kick the can down the road, so that they can enrich their lobbyists and stay in power for as long as possible, while keeping a positive image that nothing went wrong on their watch.

That jobs report meant nothing to me. I don't believe one piece of data that comes from the government. It is all manufactured and manipulated to tell a certain story.

Will the bull keep running... perhaps. Look at Venezuela. The prices of equities is not indicative of the health of the economy- although it does keep the sheep at bay and away from panic. The system is SURE to come crumbling down at some point. If I knew when, I would be a lot wealthier than I am. It's a tough short here, because they will print, print, print to keep an illusion of prosperity.

Me- I'm taking a shot getting short again today at IWM 104.60... I think this is a beautiful spot for some nice downside.

GL
 
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Jord20

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THis $IWM action is insane. Massive relative strength. Probs a decent time for a straddle, though I prefer a huge short 4 when it has to catch up
 

Jord20

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I know I haven't followed up with any of my trades on here... But I did start buying some weeklies up here.

IWM puts bought between 112-12.30
 
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JMAC

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Jord20
Bought IWM last month at $118...Should I sell soon or will it bounce back?

Thanks

JMAC

Also have GLD at $171 bought over a year ago, waiting for it to bounce back.


Losing my ass!!!
 

Jord20

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Jord20
Bought IWM last month at $118...Should I sell soon or will it bounce back?

Thanks

JMAC

Also have GLD at $171 bought over a year ago, waiting for it to bounce back.


Losing my ass!!!

You are shitting me, right? You bought IWM stock at 118, and still own it? Jeez.

I am very short it via puts... There will be some serious damage in there over the next year or 2, IMO.

I wouldn't recommend being long ANY equities up here.... including Gold, even though I am a long term believer.

GL
 
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