Sometimes its best to look at the past as a way of not repeating it.
Thats what the Chicago Bears will be doing tonight in an effort to enact some form of revenge against the rival Green Bay Packers.
Looking back over the first game which was the Packers most lopsided win this season, a 37-3 beatdown over a banged up Orton and Co. The Pack dominated the run game and put up by far and away their highest run total of the year, a whopping 200 yards on 38 carries. Rogers was steady and efficient going 23-29 for 227.
You dont need to pass when you can run that well and since that game GB has thrown more than its ran in the last four tilts to a total of 108 rushes versus 148 pass attempts. While its true they have lost all four games, they only lost one of them by more than 4 points.
My numbers have the Packers putting the ball up in the air more than the previous meeting despite the freezing conditions. Obviously if they get up 14+ points that wont happen but Im betting that it will.
In the last month only the Minnesota Vikings have ran more than thrown against Chicago, and frankly, why not when your choices are Adrian Peterson a.k.a Purple Jesus vs. Gus Frerotte.
Im also banking on the hostile conditions keeping things quick and shortening the field. Without breaking into too much statistical geekdom, it seems very likely that Aaron Rodgers would be putting up over 8.0 attempts per quarter even with a heavy dose of Forte (toe?) keeping him on the sideline. My numbers have Rodgers throwing 37 times and thats enough value to let it ride.
Aaron Rodgers is no Frerotte, and will bet on the math to be true, despite the cold. The wind chill is -8 but this guy has spent his whole career in GB and can gut it out. He ain't skeered. Im looking for around 18-20 attempts by halftime to put us in a position to win.
Air it out Aaron, air it out.
Rodgers over 33 1/2 pass attempts
Thats what the Chicago Bears will be doing tonight in an effort to enact some form of revenge against the rival Green Bay Packers.
Looking back over the first game which was the Packers most lopsided win this season, a 37-3 beatdown over a banged up Orton and Co. The Pack dominated the run game and put up by far and away their highest run total of the year, a whopping 200 yards on 38 carries. Rogers was steady and efficient going 23-29 for 227.
You dont need to pass when you can run that well and since that game GB has thrown more than its ran in the last four tilts to a total of 108 rushes versus 148 pass attempts. While its true they have lost all four games, they only lost one of them by more than 4 points.
My numbers have the Packers putting the ball up in the air more than the previous meeting despite the freezing conditions. Obviously if they get up 14+ points that wont happen but Im betting that it will.
In the last month only the Minnesota Vikings have ran more than thrown against Chicago, and frankly, why not when your choices are Adrian Peterson a.k.a Purple Jesus vs. Gus Frerotte.
Im also banking on the hostile conditions keeping things quick and shortening the field. Without breaking into too much statistical geekdom, it seems very likely that Aaron Rodgers would be putting up over 8.0 attempts per quarter even with a heavy dose of Forte (toe?) keeping him on the sideline. My numbers have Rodgers throwing 37 times and thats enough value to let it ride.
Aaron Rodgers is no Frerotte, and will bet on the math to be true, despite the cold. The wind chill is -8 but this guy has spent his whole career in GB and can gut it out. He ain't skeered. Im looking for around 18-20 attempts by halftime to put us in a position to win.
Air it out Aaron, air it out.
Rodgers over 33 1/2 pass attempts
