Hard to spend so much time on just two MNF games, but had to come up with a gameplan for attack.
Certainly some questionmarks on any opening season game, much less two divisional ones.
There is so much uncertainty on the NE/Buffalo game that its gonna be impossible for me to put a bet down based on what cannot be expected.
1. How will Brady respond to live action for more than a quarter, against a true #1 NFL defense?
2. Can the same line that allowed 48 sacks last year with Cassel, protect Brady better? Will he be releasing the ball sooner?
3. How does the Buffalo offensive line block with two rookies at G?
4. Which primadonna WR whines about pass interference first? T.O or Moss?
On paper, Im not impressed with the starting corners for NE, but not sure if Edwards will have ample time to get the ball downfield. I could go on and on but it seems most are getting the point. What happens in-game, on the field for a quarter or two will answer enough for me to take a halftime edge, if its there.
Now for the nightcap, which I am playing. Marmalard versus JaBustus. Believe it or not, expectations are pretty high in Oakland this year.
McFadden is healthy and could have a breakout season if the line can open up some holes. SD DE Cesaire is a gtd, and if he does play, wont be in full time but more of a rotation. Thats a big loss thats not getting much attention. Now, the Raiders O-line is my main concern going into this one, but the RB combo of Bush and McFadden should generate some solid production. Hopefully enough to keep pressure off Russell.
On defense, Oakland has been exposed as a poor run stop unit for some time, and attempted to address that with the last minute signing of DT Seymour, who excels in that aspect. He will join Warren and Kelly up front in forming a mammoth sized D-line which will limit Tomlinson to some extent. (Actually more worried about Sproles) This should benefit risingstar LB Morrison and fellow backer Howard to work the edge and use their speed to stuff the line. Im not saying that Oakland is gonna be a brick wall, but they will keep SD honest. Marmalard has to thow against a top 5 secondary, which should be fine.
All in all, expect to see two run-first offenses for the most part tonight and the team that makes the most of special teams play could end up deciding this one. These teams feature the best two punters in the NFL and dynamic return specialists who can take any kick back for a TD.
Points should come at a premium or on big-plays, and Im going to bet accordingly. Its best to try to stick with football handicapping instead of the off field news and whatnot, but the media circus around Merriman and the previously possible susp. at the very least is a non-healthy distraction. Not gonna put a whole lot of stock into such things, but its definitely not a positive.
My math numbers have this game off by 4 points as SD should only be favored by 6 which is close to where the line opened. Im going to spread my bets around instead of taking the 10 points though. With a dd home dog, and some good lines, the idea is that by risking more, I reduce my variance.
Therefore, playing the Raiders for 2 units total in four separate quarter bets to win a half unit each. I dont even have to 'win' a single quarter to win the bet, which is very attractive with a live home dog in this situation IMO.
1Q OAK +3-120
2Q OAK +3'-110
3Q OAK +1-110
4Q OAK +1/2-110
Opinions welcome either way, thats what the forum is for. IMO there are way, way too many posters just putting up their bets with little to no rationale as to why or how. Its pointless. Nobody cares that you have the Pats teased down with the SD over if you cant put words behind it with some clear form of thought. Not singling anyone out but its all over the place. Value information and opinion much more than anything else.
Certainly some questionmarks on any opening season game, much less two divisional ones.
There is so much uncertainty on the NE/Buffalo game that its gonna be impossible for me to put a bet down based on what cannot be expected.
1. How will Brady respond to live action for more than a quarter, against a true #1 NFL defense?
2. Can the same line that allowed 48 sacks last year with Cassel, protect Brady better? Will he be releasing the ball sooner?
3. How does the Buffalo offensive line block with two rookies at G?
4. Which primadonna WR whines about pass interference first? T.O or Moss?
On paper, Im not impressed with the starting corners for NE, but not sure if Edwards will have ample time to get the ball downfield. I could go on and on but it seems most are getting the point. What happens in-game, on the field for a quarter or two will answer enough for me to take a halftime edge, if its there.
Now for the nightcap, which I am playing. Marmalard versus JaBustus. Believe it or not, expectations are pretty high in Oakland this year.
McFadden is healthy and could have a breakout season if the line can open up some holes. SD DE Cesaire is a gtd, and if he does play, wont be in full time but more of a rotation. Thats a big loss thats not getting much attention. Now, the Raiders O-line is my main concern going into this one, but the RB combo of Bush and McFadden should generate some solid production. Hopefully enough to keep pressure off Russell.
On defense, Oakland has been exposed as a poor run stop unit for some time, and attempted to address that with the last minute signing of DT Seymour, who excels in that aspect. He will join Warren and Kelly up front in forming a mammoth sized D-line which will limit Tomlinson to some extent. (Actually more worried about Sproles) This should benefit risingstar LB Morrison and fellow backer Howard to work the edge and use their speed to stuff the line. Im not saying that Oakland is gonna be a brick wall, but they will keep SD honest. Marmalard has to thow against a top 5 secondary, which should be fine.
All in all, expect to see two run-first offenses for the most part tonight and the team that makes the most of special teams play could end up deciding this one. These teams feature the best two punters in the NFL and dynamic return specialists who can take any kick back for a TD.
Points should come at a premium or on big-plays, and Im going to bet accordingly. Its best to try to stick with football handicapping instead of the off field news and whatnot, but the media circus around Merriman and the previously possible susp. at the very least is a non-healthy distraction. Not gonna put a whole lot of stock into such things, but its definitely not a positive.
My math numbers have this game off by 4 points as SD should only be favored by 6 which is close to where the line opened. Im going to spread my bets around instead of taking the 10 points though. With a dd home dog, and some good lines, the idea is that by risking more, I reduce my variance.
Therefore, playing the Raiders for 2 units total in four separate quarter bets to win a half unit each. I dont even have to 'win' a single quarter to win the bet, which is very attractive with a live home dog in this situation IMO.
1Q OAK +3-120
2Q OAK +3'-110
3Q OAK +1-110
4Q OAK +1/2-110
Opinions welcome either way, thats what the forum is for. IMO there are way, way too many posters just putting up their bets with little to no rationale as to why or how. Its pointless. Nobody cares that you have the Pats teased down with the SD over if you cant put words behind it with some clear form of thought. Not singling anyone out but its all over the place. Value information and opinion much more than anything else.
