The Dolphins have 40 wins on Monday night all-time, the most in the AFC and second to only the Cowboys (42) in league annals.
The Patriots, meanwhile, are 10-5 on Monday night under Belichick. Considering that the spread is not coming into play tonight, thats a pretty telling statistic.
Heres another one.
New England entered Week 4 ranked a distant 28th in the league in scoring defense, 27th in yards allowed, 25th in passing defense and 20th in rushing defense. Those represent some of the most grisly defensive numbers of the Bill Belichick era in New England, and enhance the suspicion that the season-ending injuries suffered by end Ty Warren and top cornerback Leigh Bodden in the preseason have had a profoundly negative impact on this group.
Quite simply, this defense is not very good, infact its bottom 10 in the league. Leigh Bodden is a has been who never was. His best attribute was tacking the guy after he made the first down catch. Still the Pats drafted Devin McCourty in the first round but hes not ready to handle someone like Marshall at this point in his career. Kyle Arrington at corner hasnt defended a pass this season and will have his hands full on Monday as the nickel / dimer. Darius Butler will have to have a big game for this secondary to keep Miami in check.
I dont know if thats gonna happen. Keep in mind this is the team that made Ryan Fitzpatrick look like a pro bowler. 20/28 for 240 Stop. Read that last sentence again. Its pretty scary.
NE jumped all over Cinn in the first game and Palmer never got settled in until late. He threw some garbage time yards and scores to make it respectable but the damage was done.
The Buffalo thing is scary. Really. Did anyone see what the Jets did to that 'improved' Fitzpatrick offense yesterday? Yeah.
Know this. If youre betting on the Pats the good news is that they just have to win. Its a big game, and youve got Brady and Bellicheck. Its nice, like a snugglly blanket. Brady even is going for his 100th win for whatever thats worth.
Youve also got a shit defense that cant get off the field and thats coming against QBs Fitzpatrick, Sanchez and Palmer (who was trailing by DD almost instantly) Carson put up 50 passes for 340 yards BTW. Ugh.