Not the best tournament for me, but I did sweep the board in last weeks Lville/Mich St. game.
Today Im bringing out an off beat play that just barely qualifies under the system. Normally, I recommend strongly against betting anything other than straight flat bets but there appears to be enough of a correlation in the outcome of todays game to take advantage of the 2x parlay payout. Quite simply, thats value.
This game will be won or lost on the inside, not by jumpshots and three pointers. Adrian and Thabeet will combine for 40+ pts and rebounds which will be the difference today. Expect to even see Ibok in there getting his hacks. UConn will want to run and gun, taking minimal time in transition to generate a shot and specifically not allow MichST. to set up half court defense. While the Spartans talk up the idea of using their depth and doing the same, its far from the truth. They want to slow down the game tempo and maximize possessions. If and when the game gets to a double digit lead, the Spartans will have to play more uptempo and push to get back in it. If MichSt. pulls the upset or covers it will be in a lower scoring affair. Certainly possible, but Im not betting on it. Playing this for just half unit as I rarely bet parlays. Hard to believe Im betting a favorite and an over but the value of playing them with such a high correlation and the big payout at +260 is too tempting.
UCONN -4 / OVER 134 500/1300
Today Im bringing out an off beat play that just barely qualifies under the system. Normally, I recommend strongly against betting anything other than straight flat bets but there appears to be enough of a correlation in the outcome of todays game to take advantage of the 2x parlay payout. Quite simply, thats value.
This game will be won or lost on the inside, not by jumpshots and three pointers. Adrian and Thabeet will combine for 40+ pts and rebounds which will be the difference today. Expect to even see Ibok in there getting his hacks. UConn will want to run and gun, taking minimal time in transition to generate a shot and specifically not allow MichST. to set up half court defense. While the Spartans talk up the idea of using their depth and doing the same, its far from the truth. They want to slow down the game tempo and maximize possessions. If and when the game gets to a double digit lead, the Spartans will have to play more uptempo and push to get back in it. If MichSt. pulls the upset or covers it will be in a lower scoring affair. Certainly possible, but Im not betting on it. Playing this for just half unit as I rarely bet parlays. Hard to believe Im betting a favorite and an over but the value of playing them with such a high correlation and the big payout at +260 is too tempting.
UCONN -4 / OVER 134 500/1300
