SHIPP +9 OVER HEARST
Coach Steve Mariucci said he still hasn't decided how much playing time some of his banged-up players will get in the final two weeks. The 49ers would like to finish with the best record possible and have some momentum heading into the playoffs, but not at the expense of a beat-up roster for the postseason." (A better record) weighs in less than playing in the playoffs with a healthy team," Mariucci said. "Winning these two games at all costs -- playing guys who shouldn't play -- it's not worth having them play."
Marcel Shipp is averaging 80ypg on the ground in the last five, thats including a horrid 26 yard performance when they were smoked 49-0 by KC.
This won't be that kind of game. Expect SF to sit Garcia for most if not all of the second half as well as OL Deese. So even if SF is up 21-0 early they won't be pouring it on. Barlow and Hearst splitting time in the backfield for the first two, and possibly three quarters. Both backs have been dinged recently and I fully expect a SOLID 15 carries out of the SF backfield from Paul Smith.
Remember that name as you will be seeing Mr.Smith. The 49ers are locked into the 4th playoff seed in the NFC as you know, and cannot affect their standing in any way.
There are some problems. SF will be running quite a bit early on with both the normal RB's and the threat of Hearst taking one to the barn is very realistic. A 60 yard scamper will really hurt. Thats one.
Secondly, there are some banged up/out key OL starters for Arizona. Fina and Kendall are very doubtful. Running behind a reformed offensive line will shorten the Arizona playbook, as if it needed to be. Ugh. **This is my primary concern.
Overall, you have yourself a starting running back versus a starter who splits time already and won't be playing deep into the game. ANY KIND OF INJURY TO SF will send Mariucci to his clipboard and shuffling starters out. The kicker is that in this head to head we are GETTING YARDS @ +9.
Right now the chalk is -140.
Here's the commodore 128's numbers on this prop.
Shipp 20 carries 65 yards.
Hearst 11 carries 49 yards.
Hearst could end up with 15 attempts but no more than that, that number falls on my worst case scenario. Best case scenario -he is in for one series and gets the ball about 6 times.
Throw in the +9 and the fact that we have a player who WILL PLAY in the second half and those numbers skew. Arizona was down 24-7 last week and still managed to have more rushing attempts than passes, which says something. Also, Shipp did score 3 of the 4 TD's for Arizona LW and will be featured in some capacity throughout the game IMHO. As long as Steve-O rotates 2-3 backs in and passes to some degree this one should be a quality play.
Coach Steve Mariucci said he still hasn't decided how much playing time some of his banged-up players will get in the final two weeks. The 49ers would like to finish with the best record possible and have some momentum heading into the playoffs, but not at the expense of a beat-up roster for the postseason." (A better record) weighs in less than playing in the playoffs with a healthy team," Mariucci said. "Winning these two games at all costs -- playing guys who shouldn't play -- it's not worth having them play."
Marcel Shipp is averaging 80ypg on the ground in the last five, thats including a horrid 26 yard performance when they were smoked 49-0 by KC.
This won't be that kind of game. Expect SF to sit Garcia for most if not all of the second half as well as OL Deese. So even if SF is up 21-0 early they won't be pouring it on. Barlow and Hearst splitting time in the backfield for the first two, and possibly three quarters. Both backs have been dinged recently and I fully expect a SOLID 15 carries out of the SF backfield from Paul Smith.
Remember that name as you will be seeing Mr.Smith. The 49ers are locked into the 4th playoff seed in the NFC as you know, and cannot affect their standing in any way.
There are some problems. SF will be running quite a bit early on with both the normal RB's and the threat of Hearst taking one to the barn is very realistic. A 60 yard scamper will really hurt. Thats one.
Secondly, there are some banged up/out key OL starters for Arizona. Fina and Kendall are very doubtful. Running behind a reformed offensive line will shorten the Arizona playbook, as if it needed to be. Ugh. **This is my primary concern.
Overall, you have yourself a starting running back versus a starter who splits time already and won't be playing deep into the game. ANY KIND OF INJURY TO SF will send Mariucci to his clipboard and shuffling starters out. The kicker is that in this head to head we are GETTING YARDS @ +9.
Right now the chalk is -140.
Here's the commodore 128's numbers on this prop.
Shipp 20 carries 65 yards.
Hearst 11 carries 49 yards.
Hearst could end up with 15 attempts but no more than that, that number falls on my worst case scenario. Best case scenario -he is in for one series and gets the ball about 6 times.
Throw in the +9 and the fact that we have a player who WILL PLAY in the second half and those numbers skew. Arizona was down 24-7 last week and still managed to have more rushing attempts than passes, which says something. Also, Shipp did score 3 of the 4 TD's for Arizona LW and will be featured in some capacity throughout the game IMHO. As long as Steve-O rotates 2-3 backs in and passes to some degree this one should be a quality play.
