Another year has come and gone. Not too many folks were thinking Pittsburgh and Seattle before the season started and there certainly were a few teams that had much better years than Id have imagined back in August.
Teams like Tampa Bay and Denver for instance were pegged last in their own division by many accounts. Both exceeded expectations and rose above .500 and made the playoffs. What about the downtrodden Chicago Bears not only winning out but getting a first round bye as the two seed in the NFC? There wasnt a lot of preseason hype on Chicago especially when Grossman went down early. It just goes to show.
So, youre asking yourself this. Hey Bender, what in the hell does this have to do with the Superbowl today??? Its simple. Things change during the course of a season and you have to change your mindset to be willing to accept that 'bad' teams arent nearly as bad as you once thought and the 'good' ones can fall short of expectations. Just ask any Colts fan, that bandwagon got huge if you didnt pay attention. So many people are talking about the fact that its a #1 seed vs. #6. The weak schedule of the Seahawks, the road warrior mentality of the Steelers ... and on and on.
There is much to be made of this game and history will be broken. Pittsburgh could become the first ever #6 seed to win the Superbowl. For Seattle, Holmgren could become the first ever HC to win it all with two different teams. Indeed. This has no bearing on my handicapping and, truth be told, I really couldnt give a damn.
Its my belief that the XL Superbowl line is more a reflection of the bettors than it is of the talent taking the field. This game is played in Heinz stadium, Id make Pittsburgh a 3pt fav, at Quest then Seattle should be laying the FG. On a neutral field in Detroit my numbers have this game at a PK. The reason its not is because of public perception and the overwhelming amount of coin that would hit the Black and Gold.
Im not going to break this game down position by position, its really not necessary. Seattle has the better offense, while Pittsburgh has the superior defense. Special teams, which could be the difference, are very evenly matched (especially considering Q.Morgan is out and not returning kicks)
The game will ultimately be decided by turnovers and coaching. While both are evenly matched my numbers give the slightest edge to Seattle. While unpopular in opinion Id take Holmgren and Hasselbeck over Bill and Ben. Its just the way I see this one. If they played this game 10 times then each team would win 5. Hows that for Switzerland? The way to make money on a 50/50 bet is to take the value and the positive money. Thats handicapping 101. Keep it simple, thats how Im playing it.
Seattle +170
Teams like Tampa Bay and Denver for instance were pegged last in their own division by many accounts. Both exceeded expectations and rose above .500 and made the playoffs. What about the downtrodden Chicago Bears not only winning out but getting a first round bye as the two seed in the NFC? There wasnt a lot of preseason hype on Chicago especially when Grossman went down early. It just goes to show.
So, youre asking yourself this. Hey Bender, what in the hell does this have to do with the Superbowl today??? Its simple. Things change during the course of a season and you have to change your mindset to be willing to accept that 'bad' teams arent nearly as bad as you once thought and the 'good' ones can fall short of expectations. Just ask any Colts fan, that bandwagon got huge if you didnt pay attention. So many people are talking about the fact that its a #1 seed vs. #6. The weak schedule of the Seahawks, the road warrior mentality of the Steelers ... and on and on.
There is much to be made of this game and history will be broken. Pittsburgh could become the first ever #6 seed to win the Superbowl. For Seattle, Holmgren could become the first ever HC to win it all with two different teams. Indeed. This has no bearing on my handicapping and, truth be told, I really couldnt give a damn.
Its my belief that the XL Superbowl line is more a reflection of the bettors than it is of the talent taking the field. This game is played in Heinz stadium, Id make Pittsburgh a 3pt fav, at Quest then Seattle should be laying the FG. On a neutral field in Detroit my numbers have this game at a PK. The reason its not is because of public perception and the overwhelming amount of coin that would hit the Black and Gold.
Im not going to break this game down position by position, its really not necessary. Seattle has the better offense, while Pittsburgh has the superior defense. Special teams, which could be the difference, are very evenly matched (especially considering Q.Morgan is out and not returning kicks)
The game will ultimately be decided by turnovers and coaching. While both are evenly matched my numbers give the slightest edge to Seattle. While unpopular in opinion Id take Holmgren and Hasselbeck over Bill and Ben. Its just the way I see this one. If they played this game 10 times then each team would win 5. Hows that for Switzerland? The way to make money on a 50/50 bet is to take the value and the positive money. Thats handicapping 101. Keep it simple, thats how Im playing it.
Seattle +170
