Plenty of angles and writeups on tonights game, might as well add one more.
Northern Illinois comes into tonight as the clear cut favorite and for good reason - they're playing very well of late with backup quarterback Nicholson behind a strong veteran offensive line. Akron comes into Ford Field under a phenom season put together by head coach Brooking and is quite the suprise team to be representing the MAC East.
The winner between the Huskies against the Zips will come away with the big prize and a return ticket to Detroit for the Dec. 26 Motor City Bowl. The loser most likely is done for the year, snuffed by the remaining bowls in most scenarios. Therefore motivation is at a pinnacle for both sides, as it should be. This is the MAC Championship after all.
Instead of focusing on the actual spread or the total , Im directing my efforts tonight on a proposition wager involving both teams.
Akron quarterback Luke Getsy has experience in this system, coming over with HC Brookhart as a Pitt transfer. He's posted a respectable 18 TDs against just 11 interceptions up until this game.
His best effort of the year came against these same Huskies, infact. Tossing a career high 5 TDs without a single pick for a whopping 406 yards. There have been FIVE other games where he's attempted MORE passes, but never put up those types of numbers. Thats pretty staggering when you put it into that kind of perspective. Matt Leinart hasnt had a five TD game this year. Getsy has done it once and it was AGAINST this same team tonight. Certainly, he is more favored than not to have a pretty good contest in Detroit.
Getsy is a large (but not suprising) favorite to toss a TD pass before throwing an interception for obvious reasons. Just a few of which were touched on above. He also has some serious weapons at reciever including Domenick Hixon, who has more than 1,000 receiving yards this season with 6 touchdowns. Perhaps even a bigger threat is unheralded Jason Montgomery, who leads all Akron wide receivers with seven touchdowns, including two against NIU. (Hixon had one vs. NIU)
Getsy has thrown picks in six different games this season with only two of those games coming against secondaries on caliber with NIU. Those are Middle Tennessee St and Miami (OH). The Huskies have been playing much better than both those teams of late and I really like the veterans they have roaming. First Team All-MAC strong safety Ray Smith leads the Huskies as captain on NIU?s defense, and SS Dustin Utschig has been a ball hawk of late. Novak will have his boys ready and should limit Biggs effectiveness forcing plenty of third and long plays.
Getsy is known as a scrambler and creator out of the pocket and tonights tilt will be no exception. He will throw an interception but will it come before or after his first TD throw? Thats the question. My mathematical models have him throwing a TD (first) just 58% of the time and a line of +155 for tossing an INT first gives enough expected value return to warrant a long run profit. Basically, this is a bet that has a greater than not chance to lose, but at the increased payout is worth taking the risk in the long run. I'll cut the rest of the analysis short for time's sake.
Getsy INT before TD pass +155
Northern Illinois comes into tonight as the clear cut favorite and for good reason - they're playing very well of late with backup quarterback Nicholson behind a strong veteran offensive line. Akron comes into Ford Field under a phenom season put together by head coach Brooking and is quite the suprise team to be representing the MAC East.
The winner between the Huskies against the Zips will come away with the big prize and a return ticket to Detroit for the Dec. 26 Motor City Bowl. The loser most likely is done for the year, snuffed by the remaining bowls in most scenarios. Therefore motivation is at a pinnacle for both sides, as it should be. This is the MAC Championship after all.
Instead of focusing on the actual spread or the total , Im directing my efforts tonight on a proposition wager involving both teams.
Akron quarterback Luke Getsy has experience in this system, coming over with HC Brookhart as a Pitt transfer. He's posted a respectable 18 TDs against just 11 interceptions up until this game.
His best effort of the year came against these same Huskies, infact. Tossing a career high 5 TDs without a single pick for a whopping 406 yards. There have been FIVE other games where he's attempted MORE passes, but never put up those types of numbers. Thats pretty staggering when you put it into that kind of perspective. Matt Leinart hasnt had a five TD game this year. Getsy has done it once and it was AGAINST this same team tonight. Certainly, he is more favored than not to have a pretty good contest in Detroit.
Getsy is a large (but not suprising) favorite to toss a TD pass before throwing an interception for obvious reasons. Just a few of which were touched on above. He also has some serious weapons at reciever including Domenick Hixon, who has more than 1,000 receiving yards this season with 6 touchdowns. Perhaps even a bigger threat is unheralded Jason Montgomery, who leads all Akron wide receivers with seven touchdowns, including two against NIU. (Hixon had one vs. NIU)
Getsy has thrown picks in six different games this season with only two of those games coming against secondaries on caliber with NIU. Those are Middle Tennessee St and Miami (OH). The Huskies have been playing much better than both those teams of late and I really like the veterans they have roaming. First Team All-MAC strong safety Ray Smith leads the Huskies as captain on NIU?s defense, and SS Dustin Utschig has been a ball hawk of late. Novak will have his boys ready and should limit Biggs effectiveness forcing plenty of third and long plays.
Getsy is known as a scrambler and creator out of the pocket and tonights tilt will be no exception. He will throw an interception but will it come before or after his first TD throw? Thats the question. My mathematical models have him throwing a TD (first) just 58% of the time and a line of +155 for tossing an INT first gives enough expected value return to warrant a long run profit. Basically, this is a bet that has a greater than not chance to lose, but at the increased payout is worth taking the risk in the long run. I'll cut the rest of the analysis short for time's sake.
Getsy INT before TD pass +155
