Henry Miller got the ball against Duke and hasn't taken it back since. Heading into the game tonight at Memphis, Miller has scored a touchdown in four straight games and has seven of the team's eight rushing TDs. The highlight of this firfth year seniors career came on the last play of the Cards last game. A 25 yard run into the endzone in OT. Take that confidence and build on it.
Memphis is expected to alter its defensive scheme and give its cornerbacks more man-to-man responsibilities. The change is designed to help a rush defense that has given up an average of 222 yards per game, the highest in C-USA. Im not so sure that this change against a preseason Heisman candidate is good timing. With that you have to realize that Ragone comes into tonight as the teams leading rusher and his ability to scramble out of a passing situation is the reason. Therefore, I expect to see Memphis use a QB spy at times as well in this game. The Tigers' primary concern should be containing Ragone, who passed for 207 yards and two touchdowns in Louisville's 38-21 win last season. Dont be suprised to see MEMPHIS QB Wimprine end up this evening with the same if not more passing attempts than Ragone, which bodes well for our prop.
Moving on. You like numbers? Ive got some numbers from the past 4 weeks with both teams.
Miller brings a 14.5 AvgATT @ 62 YPG against teams avg allow 3.6 YPR
Brown checks in with 10AvgATT @ 46 YPG against teams avg allow 3.78 YPR
Brown's backup DeAngelo Williams has 296 yards rushing in his last three games
Louisville is allowing an average of 92 YPG on the ground and as mentioned earlier Memphis is not the Memphis of years past. They are much softer on the defensive side of the ball, allowing 222 YPG.
My mathematical numbers show true with Miller getting 21 attempts for 84 yards. Problem is the numbers on Brown have a much higher distribution ranging from 68 (high) to 24 (low)
Worst case scenario puts a 16 yard differential between the two backs, and Im willing to take that chance with a line separation of 16' yards. (How do they come up with these spot on numbers???)
All in all, it would not surprise me to see Henry Miller go over the century mark for the first time this season, and for a runner who has yet to achieve that laying chalk and double digit yards is a stretch. However, I also believe that Williams big play ability and speed will find him and not Brown getting the majority of the workload. This has already been the case in 3 of 5 Memphis games with most recently Tulane.
Whats stopping me from making this a higher rated play is the return of four Memphis starters including two DTs in Taylor and Glover. Thats nearly 600 lbs of beef. How much they play and to what effectiveness remains to be seen. Hell, thats why they call it gambling ya savvy??? (borrowing an expression). If this was an easy way to make a living you might be hard pressed to find people that enjoy spending their days cleaning toilets. Enough with the banter, my homework is done and Im playing a prop on Miller to have what could be a career night over another talented back, but one who plays in a two back system that shares the running chores. Henry Miller -16' rushing yards over Dante Brown -130
Memphis is expected to alter its defensive scheme and give its cornerbacks more man-to-man responsibilities. The change is designed to help a rush defense that has given up an average of 222 yards per game, the highest in C-USA. Im not so sure that this change against a preseason Heisman candidate is good timing. With that you have to realize that Ragone comes into tonight as the teams leading rusher and his ability to scramble out of a passing situation is the reason. Therefore, I expect to see Memphis use a QB spy at times as well in this game. The Tigers' primary concern should be containing Ragone, who passed for 207 yards and two touchdowns in Louisville's 38-21 win last season. Dont be suprised to see MEMPHIS QB Wimprine end up this evening with the same if not more passing attempts than Ragone, which bodes well for our prop.
Moving on. You like numbers? Ive got some numbers from the past 4 weeks with both teams.
Miller brings a 14.5 AvgATT @ 62 YPG against teams avg allow 3.6 YPR
Brown checks in with 10AvgATT @ 46 YPG against teams avg allow 3.78 YPR
Brown's backup DeAngelo Williams has 296 yards rushing in his last three games
Louisville is allowing an average of 92 YPG on the ground and as mentioned earlier Memphis is not the Memphis of years past. They are much softer on the defensive side of the ball, allowing 222 YPG.
My mathematical numbers show true with Miller getting 21 attempts for 84 yards. Problem is the numbers on Brown have a much higher distribution ranging from 68 (high) to 24 (low)
Worst case scenario puts a 16 yard differential between the two backs, and Im willing to take that chance with a line separation of 16' yards. (How do they come up with these spot on numbers???)
All in all, it would not surprise me to see Henry Miller go over the century mark for the first time this season, and for a runner who has yet to achieve that laying chalk and double digit yards is a stretch. However, I also believe that Williams big play ability and speed will find him and not Brown getting the majority of the workload. This has already been the case in 3 of 5 Memphis games with most recently Tulane.
Whats stopping me from making this a higher rated play is the return of four Memphis starters including two DTs in Taylor and Glover. Thats nearly 600 lbs of beef. How much they play and to what effectiveness remains to be seen. Hell, thats why they call it gambling ya savvy??? (borrowing an expression). If this was an easy way to make a living you might be hard pressed to find people that enjoy spending their days cleaning toilets. Enough with the banter, my homework is done and Im playing a prop on Miller to have what could be a career night over another talented back, but one who plays in a two back system that shares the running chores. Henry Miller -16' rushing yards over Dante Brown -130
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