J.R. Miller book

[Chenker]

Has anyone read How professional gamblers beat the Pro Football Pointspread?

If so, what are your thoughts?

I am thinking about picking up a copy for the upcoming season.

 

[Skinar]

It's a good book if you don't have much experience handicapping the NFL. I've been following J.R. Miller for years now, and his ideas and philosophies have been helpful to me.

Skinar

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

He should possibly go back and read his own book.After dodging independent monitoring for years he made blatant error last year stepping into the ultimate handicapping challege where they monitor his plays.
Hit less than 50% down-3,680 units for year and got the nads to call himself a capper and charge for his plays.
Now if ya don't want to take old dogs word for it take a peak. http://www.uhchallenge.com/football/pastwinners.htm

 

[Mr. Promises Delivered]

I don't know the guy personally & all but everyone is entitled to have a bad season, it isn't the end of the world you know.

 

[Hoops]

"Entitled to have a bad season"...well, let's just take him for example...it's certainly more than ONE bad season.

 

[Mr. Promises Delivered]

True so he has had a few bad seasons but in general it seems unfair how some are ready to knock someone because they sell & had a bad season.

 

[Chenker]

So don't pick one up? Or is it a good resource?

 

[Mr. Promises Delivered]

I've heard the book is a good read, some just question why it seems like he doesn;t follow the tips he gives.

 

[Hoops]

That must be the world's smallest violin playing in the background...

 

[MadJack]

anybody that sells plays and loses should refund the subscription fees paid. if you're not good enough to deliver winners, don't sell the plays, period!

if someone sells plays and loses, the whole world should know about it, so that nobody else pisses their money away.

if i buy a microwave or a television and the damn thing doesn't work, i'll get my money back. what's the difference?

 

[Skinar]

First of all, I have personally monitored J.R. Miller for the past 5 years. This past year his brother passed away and J.R. really hit the skids afterwards. He was down something like 120 units in combined sports, NFL, NBA in a 7 month period.

Prior to that event J.R. had always had pretty decent records in the NFL, one season he was plus 45 units and hit right at 60% of all selections.

This year in MLB he is currently up 45 units. J.R.'s newsletters always include an analysis of his selections which are worth the read, even if you don't play his picks. This is especially true of his NFL plays. I think that J.R. follows his published methodology quite well, considering that the book in question was published several years ago and he has added some new things he has learned about the NFL.

Personally, I think J.R. runs an honest service, and he admits his mistakes when he makes them. Actually, I no longer take his newsletter just for the picks, but for the analysis as well. I use his info along with my own research to make my decisions.

Skinar

 

[Skinar]

One more thing - when J.R. had that really bad spell this past fall and spring, he extended everyone's subscriptions to cover the losing time period - so he ended up NOT charging for those bad picks.

Actually, he stayed so bad for so long it became a blessing. I just faded him for about 3 months and came out OK.

Skinar

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

I own his book and I will say I picked up quite a few things from it and his website. It looks like everyone has different opinions on him but I will say the book is worth the $20 or $30.

His service was the last service I really ever subscribed to. I purchased a month of his service and it was horrible. I think I caught him at the start of his big losing streak. I did keep monitoring him and it just got worse. I do keep tabs on him but I have no plans to ever pay that kind of money for picks again.

Especially with all of you here.

Trampled

 

[djv]

Save the money. Watch and read what is here for you. It's more then you will ever need.
Not running the guy down. In general you don't need to buy any.

[This message has been edited by djv (edited 07-24-2001).]

 

[ctownguy]

I bought his book 2 years ago and found it somewhat boring. Also got his newsletter for a few months and found that his theories espoused in the book are no better or worse than my own and others. He just is a prolific writer and has a real talent for overloading the subject with alot verbage not needed to get across his point.

I found him to be honest, but definitely do not agree on some of his theories no matter what kinda of percentages his puts out there to back his ideas up.

Believe me I know how alot of you feel about paying for picks, but I have found whatever it takes to win is a good thing and using a forum like this with its valuable info from everyone is part of it and paying for picks can be another part of the plan to beat the man.

So how ever its done lets all have a great and profitable season and I hope to contribute to this forum this year as I will have more time to do so this season than the last couple.

[This message has been edited by ctownguy (edited 08-12-2001).]

 

[Whale]

Honest? How on earth can you call the guy honest?

If honesty means only telling half the truth sure. When you make about 1/2 a million a year from selling a newsletter, it doesn't pay to tell the whole truth.

The book, is average.

 

[sweatbet]

I think Skinar hit the nail on the head, after his brother passed away, his picks went down big and fast.

 

[Fred]

Originally posted by Whale:


If honesty means only telling half the truth sure. When you make about 1/2 a million a year from selling a newsletter, it doesn't pay to tell the whole truth.

In complete agreement with you Whale.

J.R.'s 'straight shooter' avuncular charm is a facade.

He can't hold a candle to dozens of 'cappers who post here (eg Nollan Dalla, I.E, Anders and many others).

Incidentally he was losing way before the death of his brother. (I don't make light of his grief. I respect how painful such things can be)

It's not the losing that's so wrong. It's the delibrate misrepresentations of his long term performance. Never answering direct questions relating to it. Throwing in red herrings.

What's your long term record J.R.?
"we like to play a lot of moneyline dogs"

What's your long term record J.R.?
"it's not winning percentage that counts but total profit"

What's your long term record J.R.?
"we don't have time to break down our record by each sport including totals home and road team etc -- we're too busy 'capping"

What's your long term record J.R.?
"were you watching? if you'd been with us during (the last 2 weeks/June/last NBA season etc) you'd be up X units"

What's your long term record J.R.?
"if you're looking for a guy to hit 70%,80% or even 90% we aren't for you. We aim to hit 55-58% ATS or moneyline equivalent"

What's your long term record J.R.?
"we've had losing months before and we'll sure have them again but over the long haul we hope to come out in front"

What's your long term record J.R.?
"alot of people lose money simply through poor money management. Stay away from progressive betting systems (like the Kelly criterion) they'll send you broke, and fast!"

He has the right to sell his picks. Anyone has the right to buy them.

Sure, I bought his plays and lost but that isn't what pisses me. I guess every tout misrespresents themselves. J.R. is just so good(convincing) at it.


But ya know what's really tragic? A dude actually plagerises J.R.'s site. I won't post the address but the presentation is obviously ripped from J.R. and this dude used to (according to J.R.) subscribe to 'professional' gambler/salesman newsletter then mix the plays with some others and sell them for more!

!

 

[Flipper13]

I will sell you my copy of JR Millers book if anyone is interested. Email me at flipper013@aol.com. I was gonna put it for sale at ebay.