Jaguars @ Cowboys

[taxi driver]

Jacksonville @ Dallas

This game offers an initial two strong and obvious points that are hard to ignore. In an of themselves they warrant a play in my opinion.

1.) A scheduling mismatch. Dallas played Monday night in Mexico and now must play on Thursday night. For all practical purposes, that leaves 2 days of preparation, Tuesday and Wednesday. In contrast, even though this game is early in the week (Thursday), the Jags have the luxury of having had a full week to prepared since their last game was also on a Thursday.

2.) A drastic gap in pre-season idealogies. Tom Coughlin is one of those pre-season gurus that insists on winning. Along the lines of Bill Parcells and Dennis Green, he has established himself as one that likes to win in these games. And like Green in his earlier years, Coughlin has been known to win big. In contrast, the Cowboys remain the worst, bar none, in pre-season no matter who their coach is.

Having pointed out the obvious, here's some more thoughts. Tom Coughlin is a taskmaster. Following his team's pre-season cycle and efforts in their first 3 games suggests to me that this week could be a huge win for them.

In their opener against Carolina, Jacksonville eeked out a narrow 2-point win over Carolina in a game where Seifort played out of pre-season character to silence his critics.

In game two, Jax took to New York only to catch the Superbowl losers at home fresh off a 14-0 shutout loss. Jax not only got routed but looked horrible in the process.

That game seemed to set up a nice play on the Jags as they were headed home with a decent 'rest' advantage over the Chiefs. I almost jumped on that game, but stayed off. One, the Chiefs are deep at QB and the Jags were still aching a bit. And two, I wasn't prepared to lay points yet with the Jags off a huge loss until they 'rode out' their funk.

In game three vs. the Chiefs, the Jags fell way behind early trailing by double-digits at half time. Then, finally, Tommy got their attention. They came out the second half a different team and pulled off the rally.

I believe that second-half performance is the kind of spunk we can expect from them this week. Coughlin hasn't had his annual pre-season blowout yet, and I think this is a good spot for him to get it, especially as it is the final week before the real deal.

Coughlin is 5-1 SU and ATS in his final pre-season game. He is 2-0 SU and ATS vs. Dallas in pre-season--both of which were in the final week and both of which were sizeable victories winning 42-20 and 27-6.

On the other side, the always-horrific Cowboys are off an uncanny win last week--and a big one--versus the Raiders. Just asked San Fran how much zap the Raiders can take out of you. With 2 days to prepare for Couglin's Pit Bulls, zap is the last thing they need to lose. It reeks of a blowout to me.

Recommendation:

Go ahead and grab it at minus four. The line is fair, and is lower than I would've expected--presumably due to the Cowboy's Monday Night showing. I don't expect for the line to drop, and holding out for that to happen could be vain and/or cost you a half-point or more.

2* Jags -4 over Cowboys


dave

 

[4bubba]

Great write up Dave.
Have you found out any info on the winning margin and totals for the last week of preseason?

------------------
indecision is the KEY to flexibility

 

[a-train]

Nice Write-Up
Intertops and Aces Gold Jags -3.5
Let's get a win and start the season off right
GLTA

 

[pepin46]

bubba

i have neglected that research, and have been winging it, thus my awful record so far.

this info is available, but hard to actually get it printed, as so far i have not been able to print from either stats or donbest.

from the overview i got last night of last year's performances, and taking into account the extremely low totals on most games, i would look to see many totals go way over this week.

some that have caught my eye:

buff/pitt-looks like at least a 20-17 game

indy/cinci indy doesn't let up, and cinci should get a couple in this spot.21-14 without any fgs, so at least a 38 point total.

tampa/atlanta tampa has to score in this spot, they have to open it up. at the very least 24 points, and for atlanta?? need 10 to get it over.

green bay/oak oak looks very suspicious, like they haven't awakened from the balt thrashing from last year. although in the comforts of home, i expect g.b. to challenge and push it over. 27-20????

n.o./seattle-these boys have the tools, have been under-achieving, i look for a break-out from new orleans to get this game over 50.

san diego/ariz is another possibility, with totals at 35.

i'm hoping this will be my break-out week as well, will do a few overs coupled with buff, indy, tampa and n.o. to cover as well. maybe.....

pep

 

[taxi driver]

I'll check that out if/when I can bubba...you can find some decent pre-season info at repole.com

dave

 

[taxi driver]

bubba-

Last 6 years Overs Week four are 46-41.

Here's the breakdown:

1995: 6-9
1996: 10-5
1997: 7-6
1998: 4-10
1999: 9-6
2000: 10-5

dave

 

[fpatbigd]

Nice write-up on the game! Yesterday at AcesGold the line moved down to 3.5 early in the afternoon. By early evening the line moved back up to 4. The line is still at Jax -4 when I checked this morning. I suspect that the line will creep up to -5 or more by game time.

 

[NuttyGambler]

This wasn't hard to find, as it was on the Jag's website, but just incase you didn't see it. More on the Jag's plans for tonight.


************

8/27/2001
By Vic Ketchman, Jaguars Inside Report Senior Editor


The final preseason game is generally regarded as the least important of the four, as starters take to the bench early, coaches are most determined to show nothing of any schematic importance, and everyone's mind is on the start of the regular season that is just a week away. Jaguars coach Tom Coughlin, however, puts an interesting twist on this week.

"It's a full game-plan week. It's a full presentation to the players," Coughlin said of this week's preparation for Thursday night's game in Dallas.

Coughlin uses this week as a dry run for next week, when the Jaguars will prepare for their season-opener against the Pittsburgh Steelers. This is a week to get into the regular-season routine.

This will not be a totally unnecessary exercise this week for A D V E R T I S E M E N T

other reasons, too. The Jaguars, according to their performances against the Giants and the Chiefs, are not regular-season-ready. They need more work.

"I'd like to run the ball. I'd like to rush the passer and do a better job with our pass-coverage. I'd like to know we won't have any break-outs on kick coverage, and that we'll do a better job with the punt game. There are a certain number of individuals I want to see play," Coughlin said.

Yes, the final preseason game is mostly about the final roster cuts, but that's not the big issue with the Jaguars, who are trapped by the salary-cap amortization of their veteran players, and who aren't deep enough in talent to anguish over low-priority roster decisions.

This Thursday's game in Dallas is about getting this team ready to face the Steelers; to be ready to begin a September schedule so favorable that the Jaguars must start fast to have any chance of being a playoff contender.

"The closer you get to the regular season, the more specific we have to practice and play," Coughlin said.

That's where the Jaguars' medical report enters the picture, again. Tony Boselli (knee), Keenan McCardell (hernia surgery) and Fernando Bryant (separated shoulder) are attempting to recover in time for the opener, Now, add to that list tight end Kyle Brady, who has a troubling leg infection.

"That's one of those things, and that's the scary part," Coughlin said of Brady's injury, which hadn't been considered serious until today. Brady is believed to have acquired the infection as a result of an abrasion on his leg.

In other medical news, rookie linebacker Eric Westmoreland missed today's practice with a sprained knee.

Coughlin announced that rookie long-snapper Randy Chevrier will also play some defensive line Thursday against the Cowboys, and rookie punter David Leaverton will give kickoffs a try. Those two players are in hotly-contested roster battles and may need to increase their worth.

 

[pepin46]

looking at those yearly o/u:

you must take into account the fact that the unders have overwhelmed the pre-season totals, thus the bandwagon effect is in full force, and forcing the oddsmakers to dig way down to split those bets.

if, like many here on this board, you have been making out like a bandit with the teasers under/dogs, 95% of you won't change.

i have done a few (15) 4-parlays, all overs coupled with the best teams, using 3 teams as key. the anti-nolan. how is that for action?

the way things have been going, i normally would suggest fading me, as i did last week, but not this week and not with these lines.

i won't post them as i am starting to feel it is a certain jinx.

by the way, taxi, i should have mentioned that your writing makes a lot of sense, but i smell a rat, as i would expect that your logic would have been well recognized by now, and moved that line at least 1 point, which it hasn't. i have included jax and the over, though.


pep

 

[fpatbigd]

Line just moved to Jax -4.5 at AcesGold.