Monday Night Football: Jets at Titans
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (-1, 42)
The New York Jets remain an unlikely contender for a postseason spot and will seek their third straight victory when they visit the Tennessee Titans on Monday night. Despite an offense that remains in shambles, New York has posted back-to-back victories over the Arizona Cardinals and Jacksonville Jaguars - teams with a combined one win in the last nine games - to stay within striking distance of the No. 6 seed in the AFC. The Titans are the latest struggling opponent for the Jets, having lost three straight and five of six. Tennessee has issues on both sides of the ball, with the defense surrendering at least 30 points in seven of the first nine games and the offense having bogged down since quarterback Jake Locker returned from injury.
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE: Titans -1, O/U 42
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the west at 8 mph.
ABOUT THE JETS (6-7): With Mark Sanchez continuing to flounder, New York finally reverted to its preseason promise of a ground-and-pound attack in last week's 17-10 win at Jacksonville. Bilal Powell rushed for 78 yards and a TD on 19 carries and Shonn Greene had 77 yards and a score on 20 rushes. That allowed coach Rex Ryan to keep the ball out of the hands of Sanchez, who threw for only 111 yards after being benched the previous week in favor of third-stringer Greg McIlroy. New York's receiving corps has been decimated by injuries, leading to the decision to bring back well-traveled veteran Braylon Edwards earlier this week. The Jets' defense has permitted a combined 16 points in the last two games after getting shredded for 49 by New England on Thanksgiving night.
ABOUT THE TITANS (4-9): Locker missed five games earlier in the season due to injury and he has shown little progression since returning to the lineup. The second-year QB has thrown seven interceptions in the past three games, including one from his own end zone that helped wipe out Tennessee's 13-point halftime lead against Indianapolis a week ago. Despite his struggles - among the reasons for the dismissal of offensive coordinator Chris Palmer - the Titans are not shy about having Locker air it out. He's attempted an average of 40 passes in the last three games, and they are not coming when the team is forced to play catch-up. Running back Chris Johnson has rushed for 1,000 yards for five straight seasons, but he is averaging only 3.3 yards per carry in the last three games.
TRENDS:
* Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
* Titans are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Jets are 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Under is 6-0-1 in Titans? last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Tennessee has won four of its last five Monday night games.
2. Edwards was claimed off waivers from Seattle this week despite posting on his Twitter account that New York's management was "idiots" for the way Sanchez has been utilized.
3. Titans TE Jared Cook, the team's second-leading receiver, is done for the season after suffering a torn rotator cuff in last week's game.
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Tale of the Tape: Jets at Titans
Take a quick glance at the tale of the tape for Monday night?s showdown between the New York Jets and Tennessee Titans.
Offense
Mark Sanchez has continued to struggle despite less-than-stellar competition. The Jets' embattled quarterback is 22 of 40 for 208 yards with three interceptions and a fumble over the last two games. With Sanchez continuing to flounder, New York finally reverted to its preseason promise of a ground-and-pound attack in last week's 17-10 win at Jacksonville. Bilal Powell rushed for 78 yards and a TD on 19 carries and Shonn Greene had 77 yards and a score on 20 rushes. New York's receiving corps has been decimated by injuries, leading to the decision to bring back well-traveled veteran Braylon Edwards (hamstring) earlier this week. He is probable to suit up Monday night.
Titans QB Jake Locker missed five games earlier in the season due to injury and he has shown little progression since returning to the lineup. The second-year QB has thrown seven interceptions in the past three games, including one from his own end zone that helped wipe out Tennessee's 13-point halftime lead against Indianapolis a week ago. Running back Chris Johnson has rushed for 1,000 yards for five straight seasons, but is averaging only 3.3 yards per carry in the last three games. Tight end Jared Cook, the team's second-leading receiver, is done for the season after suffering a torn rotator cuff in last week's game.
Edge: Titans
Defense
The Jets' defense has permitted a combined 16 points in the last two games after getting shredded for 49 by New England on Thanksgiving night. But keep in mind those dominant performances the past two weeks were against the NFL?s two worst offenses (Arizona, Jacksonville).
The Titans put together a dominant defensive first half ? holding the Colts to 111 total yards, sacking Andrew Luck three times last week. The Tennessee stop unit limited the league?s third-best offense at the time to 269 yards and 4-of-12 third-down conversions. It also scored a touchdown. The Titans allow an average of 127 rushing yards, tied for 23rd in the league.
Edge: Jets
Special Teams
The Jets rank eighth in opponents? kickoff-return average and lead the league with 22 opponents? drives starting inside their own 20. Kicker Nick Folk has made only 76 percent of his field goal attempts this season, ranking him 32nd in the league in that category.
Titans return specialist Darius Reynaud enjoyed success early in the season, but teams are now avoiding him. He returned just one punt for 14 yards in last week?s loss to the Colts and was ripped by the local media for his poor decision-making the week before against Houston. Rob Bironas and Brett Kern are one of the better kicking/punting duos in the league.
Edge: Titans
Word on the street
?Big, talented, physical guy (Locker). Almost has a mentality of a running back when he takes off with it. Obviously, he?s a great athlete, he has a big arm. He?s a guy, certainly, you have to worry about. Not only with his arm, but his scrambling ability as well.? ? Jets head coach Rex Ryan on Jake Locker.
?We have a young quarterback and most teams have to decide, do we want to try to confuse him and go after him, or make him read coverage? I'm sure they'll do a little bit of both.? ? Titans head coach Mike Munchak on what he expects from the Jets defense.
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New York Jets vs. Tennessee Titans
Point Spread - Pick
New York Jets (6-7 SU, 7-6 ATS) vs. Tennessee Titans (4-9 SU, 4-9 ATS)
NFL Week 15
Date/Time: Monday, December 17th, 2012, 8:30 p.m. EST
Where: LP Field, Nashville, Tenn.
TV: ESPN/DirecTV 206
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Point Spread: NYJ +1/TEN -1
Over/Under Total: 41.5
Left for dead and with a whole tabloids-worth of drama still surrounding them, the New York Jets are only a game out of the AFC Wild Card chase, so it should make for some interesting television to start the work week when the Jets travel to LP Field in Nashville to take on the Tennessee Titans on Monday Night Football on ESPN.
With a mini two-game win streak and three wins in their last four games, the Jets have scratched and clawed their way back into the playoff race on determination alone. It certainly helps that two of those three wins have come against the laughingstocks of the NFL these days (Arizona and Jacksonville), but this isn't the BCS and style points and scoring margin don't matter in the NFL.
The Jets slipped past the Jaguars last week, 17-10, but it wasn't very convincing. Quarterback Mark Sanchez didn't throw any interceptions, but his 12-for-19 and 111 yards wasn't awe inspiring either. Sanchez's biggest benefit was the fact the Jets decided they were a run-first team, running 42 times for 166 yards (3.9 per). But even still, the Jets didn't seal the win until they intercepted Jags QB Chad Henne deep in their own territory with 15 seconds left on the clock.
Tennessee is currently stuck in a three game losing streak, including a hard-fought but tough loss on the road in Indianapolis last weekend, 27-23. It marked the second time the Titans lost a tough one to rookie Andrew Luck and the Colts (lost 19-13 in OT in week 9), with the first loss being the one that started their 1-5 slide and dropped them into the race for a high draft pick instead of an AFC playoff spot.
With little left to play for but pride, and maybe head coach Mike Munchak's job, the Titans can spoil the Jets chances and send them packing with a win at home in primetime if they can just find a way to protect the ball on Monday Night Football.
The game opened with the Titans as 1-point favorites at home and despite some decent public money on both sides of the number, the Titans have held as favorites and have even gone up to minus -1.5 or -2 point favorites at most sportsbooks. The number is climbing because a lot of sharp money is coming in on the Jets, causing Bookmakers to move the line up even though most of the average weekend gamblers are fading the Jets thinking their ship has already sailed this season.
The over/under total opened at 42 and can still be found at that number at a few books, but a majority of offshore sportsbooks and even most of the properties in Las Vegas have dropped the game the hook to 41.5 to take the push out of play on Monday.
As fans we should be in for a barnburner this week on Monday Night (cue sarcasm). Seriously though, with two struggling offenses and two quarterbacks that can't seem to hold onto the football (Sanchez 15 INT/6 FumL; Jake Locker 9 INT/5 FumL), I wouldn't expect either team to throw the ball anymore than they possibly have to on Monday.
All of this means it will come down to running the football and defense, and in both instances the Jets hold the advantage.
The Jets used this same blueprint last week at Jacksonville, grinding out 42 runs using both Shonn Greene (20 carries-77 yards, TD) and Bilal Powell (19 carries-78 yards, TD) in equal doses to keep them fresh and keep the Jets attack ahead of the sticks as much as possible. With the Titans run defense ranked 24th allowing 127 yards a game, you can expect the Jets to keep things simple and keep plugging away even if the Titans creep an eight and ninth man in the box begging Sanchez to throw it.
Tennessee still has Chris Johnson as their main weapon in the running game, but CJ2K is nowhere near the back he was years ago and he's only had four 100-yard rushing games this season. With Javon Ringer hurt for most of the season, the Titans have not found anyone to complement Johnson and as a result they often struggle to stay out of third-and-long situations and only average 105 yards a game (23rd). It doesn't help that the Titans have also been playing from behind for most of the season, putting extra pressure on Locker. But if there is a silver lining it's the fact that the Jets have been terrible against the run this year (136 ypg - 29th), giving Johnson and interim offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains (Chris Palmer was fired in late November) reason to keep plugging away even if it's tough sledding early on in the game.
Also working in the Jets favor is the fact that they are riding a six-game covering streak against the Titans dating back to the 1998 season. Five of those games ended in straight up victories too, so even though the Jets look like a cluster-fudge on offense, there are some strong betting trends telling you to ignore your gut and go with the Jets on Monday. The Jets are also 4-0 ATS in Tennessee over the years, the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six head-to-heads, and the road team is 5-2 ATS as well.
But let it be known that Tennessee does seem to enjoy the big stage with the Monday Night spotlight, going 4-1 ATS in their last five appearances on Monday Night Football.
Badger's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Bad teams find ways to lose. I'm referring to the Jets.
I'm betting the Titans!
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Jets or Titans? Bloggers debate who will cover
Monday Night Football welcomes two fringe teams to the primetime spotlight. The New York Jets are on playoff life support while the Tennessee Titans, who are 1-point favorites, are trying to save face after an up-and-down season.
THREE REASONS WHY NEW YORK WILL COVER
Ground and pound
The New York Jets have got back to effectively running the football, thanks to a 1-2 punch of Bilal Powell and Shonn Greene. When the Jets can run the football successfully, they can protect Mark Sanchez and open up their play-action passing attack. They are 6-1 this season when running at least 30 times.
Pride
The Jets were humiliated in their last primetime game, butt-fumbling their way to a 30-point loss against the Patriots. Losing like that has to be fresh in everybody?s mind and provides an extra layer of motivation for a prideful, veteran team. Beyond that, the Jets are in the thick of the AFC wildcard chase and absolutely can?t afford a loss if they have any hopes of playing in January.
Defensive line growth
Defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson is peaking right now and looking every bit like a Pro-Bowl player. Alongside him, rookie end Quinton Coples is coming off his best game of the season. Tennessee is down four starting offensive lineman and their starting tight end. They will struggle to get a push up front in the running game, which could force them to rely too heavily on quarterback Jake Locker.
THREE REASONS WHY TENNESSEE WILL COVER
Defensive pressure
The Titans were terrible on defense early in the season. Back then, Jerry Gray had his defense sitting in a soft Cover-2 and only rushing four most of the game. They were giving up passes and missing tackles. That led to a lot of points allowed. About six weeks ago, Gray completely changed his philosophy. He has been dialing up blitzes all over the field and the Titans have gotten a lot of pressure as a result. This will make things challenging for Mark Sanchez, who doesn't deal well with pressure.
Chris Johnson
The Jets are 29th in the league against the run. That will make for a huge night for Chris Johnson. Getting C.J. going will allow the Titans offense to stay balanced and open things up for Jake Locker down the field. Locker has struggled at times, but he has not had trouble throwing the ball down the field.
Primetime home-field advantage
The Titans have struggled mightily this year, but they tend to play well at home in primetime. They took down the Steelers at LP Field on a Thursday night earlier this season. This team also knows they're playing for Mike Munchak's job and they seem to really like Munch as their coach.
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Super Situations? - FoxSheets
NFL NY JETS at TENNESSEE
Play Over - Home teams against the total in conference games, off 2 straight losses against division rivals.
38-15 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.7% 21.5 units )
2-2 this year. ( 50.0% -0.2 units )
NFL NY JETS at TENNESSEE
Play On - Underdogs vs. the money line (NY JETS) in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG) after 8 or more games, after allowing 14 points or less last game.
95-94 since 1997. ( 50.3% 0.0 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% 0.0 units )
NFL NY JETS at TENNESSEE
Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is between 18 and 21 after 1 or more consecutive wins, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.
49-20 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.0% 27.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 1.0 units )
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MNF - Jets at Titans
The final Monday night game of the season takes place in Nashville with Christmas Eve and New Year's Eve on tap the next two Mondays. The Titans don't have much to play for except pride, but the boisterous Jets are still hanging around in the AFC playoff race. New York is coming off consecutive wins over Arizona and Jacksonville, while facing three below .500 teams in the final three weeks of the season.
The Jets were 4-7 following a Thanksgiving night massacre against the Patriots, falling 49-19 at home. However, Rex Ryan's team bounced back the next week with a grind-it-out 7-6 victory over the struggling Cardinals. New York put together another win last Sunday at Jacksonville, a 17-10 triumph to cash as three-point road favorites to improve to 6-7. Mark Sanchez threw for just 111 yards one game after getting pulled against Arizona, but the former USC standout didn't throw an interception in Jacksonville.
Tennessee showed some flashes of brilliance earlier this season with outright underdog victories over Pittsburgh and Buffalo in October. However, the Titans have gone backwards by losing five of their last six, while covering just once in this stretch. The latest setback came at Indianapolis, the second time the Titans have thrown away a late lead against the Colts.
Mike Munchak's team lost its third consecutive game to a division rival in a three-week span, a 27-23 defeat to the Colts as 3?-point underdogs. This game opened with the Colts as 5?-point 'chalk,' but sharp money came in on Tennessee late in the week, as those who bet the Titans on gameday missed out on a winner. Tennessee led Indianapolis, 20-7 at halftime, but the Colts picked up a pair of third quarter touchdowns in a three-minute span to take the advantage. The Colts received two late Adam Vinatieri field goals to push the contest 'over' the total of 47, the first 'over' in the last four games for the Titans.
New York has been a very up and down team away from Met Life Stadium with a 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS record. The Jets lost by double-digits at Pittsburgh and Seattle, while getting squeezed in overtime at New England. However, New York picked up an overtime victory at Miami and a convincing rout of St. Louis prior to the win at Jacksonville. The total has been hard to gauge on the road for the Jets, going 3-3 to the 'over.'
Since beating the Steelers with a last-second field goal in Week 6, the Titans have dropped three consecutive games at LP Field. Tennessee has been outscored, 75-30 in the two home defeats to Chicago and Houston, while posting a 2-4 ATS home record this season.
The last time the Jets and Titans hooked up came in Week 3 of 2009 at Met Life Stadium. New York grabbed a 24-17 win as one-point favorites, as Sanchez threw two touchdown passes while running in another score. The Jets have won four of the last five meetings since 2003, while winning the last visit to Nashville with Brett Favre under center in 2008.
Tennessee is hosting Monday night football for the first time since 2008 when the Titans topped the Colts, 31-21 as four-point favorites. The Titans own a three-game winning streak on Mondays over the last five seasons, including a 30-3 rout at Jacksonville in 2010. The Jets are just 2-4 on Mondays during Ryan's tenure, which includes a home loss to the Texans in Week 5, but New York cashed as 9?-point 'dogs.
Heading into this final Monday nighter of the season, favorites put together a 10-5 SU and 7-8 ATS record, as the 'chalk' have won and covered five of the last seven times. The 'under' hit in nine of 15 Monday night contests, but the 'over' is 3-1 the past four weeks.
The Titans are listed as 1?-point favorites at most outlets, while several 2's are hanging out. The total is set at 41?, but will likely jump to at least 42 at gametime.
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NFL Week 15
Jets (6-7) @ Titans (5-8) ? As bad as the Jets have been, as awful as their QB play has been, they close with Titans-Chargers-Bills; its not impossible they could still make playoffs. Go figure. Gang Green won three of last four games, allowing 13 or less points in all three wins; they?re 3-3 on road, losing at Pitt-Foxboro-Seattle. Tennessee lost four of last six games, as young QB Locker gets experience; he?s kind of a right-handed Tebow, athletic as hell, not an accurate passer. Titans are 2-4 at home, with both wins by a FG (Lions/Steelers). Jets ran ball for 177-166 yards last two games, as they try to take pressure off Sanchez, who has horrible set of WRs; expect more of same here. Jets won five of last six series games, winning three of four here, but last of those was in ?08. AFC East road underdogs are 5-7 vs spread; AFC South home favorites are 5-1. Did you know before the Jets were the Jets, they were the New York Titans?
