Joe Shmoe and others - let me in on your leans

[ari]

Joe - although i hate to do this - I think I am going against the Cs tonight. The line seemed off (too low) and now it doesn't budge with a lot of action on Cs? Seems too easy to take Cs only laying 2 at home with a tied series????

I am not playing the LA/Hou game. I really liked the way Houston moved without Yao - but I am afraid LA brings the heavy guns tonight. Just can't lay 13 - maybe a small play on Houston to keep it close the first half???

:0corn

 

[joe_shmoe]

Joe - although i hate to do this - I think I am going against the Cs tonight. The line seemed off (too low) and now it doesn't budge with a lot of action on Cs? Seems too easy to take Cs only laying 2 at home with a tied series????

I am not playing the LA/Hou game. I really liked the way Houston moved without Yao - but I am afraid LA brings the heavy guns tonight. Just can't lay 13 - maybe a small play on Houston to keep it close the first half???

:0corn

I'm studying some stuff right now. I'll come back in an hour or so with what I like.

 

[Griffin8s]

I like Houston in this spot for some reason. I can't see them wining the game but to get +12 or maybe better by game time when that LA money comes in. Houston knows if they lose this game things could end quickly and I think we will see a all out effort here. As for the other game I just don't know been back and forth all day which is not a good sign for me. GL on whatever you play!:toast:

 

[JBrilman]

Joe - although i hate to do this - I think I am going against the Cs tonight. The line seemed off (too low) and now it doesn't budge with a lot of action on Cs? Seems too easy to take Cs only laying 2 at home with a tied series????

I am not playing the LA/Hou game. I really liked the way Houston moved without Yao - but I am afraid LA brings the heavy guns tonight. Just can't lay 13 - maybe a small play on Houston to keep it close the first half???

:0corn

FWIW
I played only one play today. A 2 team parlay of exactly how I think tonight will play out

Orlando ML
Lakers -12

 

[JBrilman]

Joe - although i hate to do this - I think I am going against the Cs tonight. The line seemed off (too low) and now it doesn't budge with a lot of action on Cs? Seems too easy to take Cs only laying 2 at home with a tied series????

I am not playing the LA/Hou game. I really liked the way Houston moved without Yao - but I am afraid LA brings the heavy guns tonight. Just can't lay 13 - maybe a small play on Houston to keep it close the first half???

:0corn

Wouldn't touch HOU 1st half as that's when LA will apply the most pressure. If you placing money on HOU today it is in hopes of a backdoor cover.

 

[ari]

Good stuff guys - thanks for the input. I am leaning harder on the Magic +2.

 

[PeePee]

Wouldn't touch HOU 1st half as that's when LA will apply the most pressure. If you placing money on HOU today it is in hopes of a backdoor cover.

Agreed...based on the fact that Lak notoriously letting team sneaking back in 4Q.

 

[joe_shmoe]

I accidentally posted this in Ools thread instead of this one... but here are my plays for the night.

Locked in on two totals.

#1 Under 96.5 ORL/BOS 1H.

In the last 10 meetings between these teams, they have scored more than 96 just once - game 2 of the current series. Hopefully the defensive intensity of both teams stays up and they limit the amount of open 3's they each get.

#2 Over 198.5 in LOS/HOUS game.

In each of the 3 Lakers playoff losses, the total has gone under. In their 6 playoff wins, the over is 4-2. I don't know if the Lakers are going to cover or not, but I think the odds of them winning the game are in the 80-85% range.

From what I have seen, the Lakers need to push the ball in order to beat these Rockets. They can't get lulled into the halfcourt game and I think they will look for opportunities to score quickly like they did in game 3.

I'm leaning ORL +2 but waiting to see if I can get a better line. Lastly, I'm already locked in on the Denver -8.5. I figure I can buy back if I need to. The Nuggets beat up Dallas the last two times in Denver and I don't see why they don't do it again.

 

[ari]

thanks Joe - appreciate the feedback. I'll look into that 1h call on C/M. Good luck tonight gents:scared

 

[joe_shmoe]

Okay, line doesn't seem to be moving. I'm adding a unit on ORL +2 and taking ORL +1 and Under 96.5 in the 1H on a parlay.

 

[ari]

I like it Joe - I added Magic 1H +1 - to my Under 1H - both small plays. I just need to see the flow of this game before I decide to put any serious $ on it.

 

[ari]

[handshake] off to the books...

 

[ari]

Man Cs are so cold - but I got to think they come back and at least make this close in the end??

 

[ari]

And the pace picked up considerably - I think the 3Q is very high scoring and maybe a little less points in the 4th as the D really clamps down.

 

[joe_shmoe]

Man Cs are so cold - but I got to think they come back and at least make this close in the end??

If it was a bigger middle opportunity, I would prob take the C's. But why would I take the C's now at -3.5 when I wasn't willing to take them at -2 for the FG. The refs might help them out but I'll just let my FG Orl play ride out.

I am however, adding the under 96.5 in the 2H for 1/2 a unit.

BOLTA.

 

[ari]

I took Magic Over 23.5 3Q. Let's get them.

 

[joe_shmoe]

That's 4th quarter was comical.

 

[ari]

pathetic

 

[ari]

It's either LA or nothing tonight - what are your leans Joe? Still like the over?

 

[canuckfan77]

Any 2H plays for the Lakers game Joe?