John Deere Classic

[Stanley]

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)

Stewart Cink to win 14/1 e.w. available generally
It has been a disappointing season for Cink after opening with two top-5 finishes and he has just one top-10 finish since Hawaii, which was at the Bay Hill Invitational in March. But he did record his best finish since Bay Hill at the U.S. Open (his last start) and was challenging for the title on his debut on this course last year. Against this weak field, he should do so again this week.

Ben Crane to win 50/1 e.w. available generally
The winner of the 2003 BellSouth Classic has shown some good form recently, particularly with a 2nd place finish in the Booz Allen Classic last month. With two years' course experience as well, these odds seem a little large for such a player.

Vaughn Taylor to win 80/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
Taking a chance on a player returning from injury as he has not played since pulling out of the Booz Allen Classic with a stomach muscle injury on 10th June. But as he had been 4-under-par after 17 holes and in the top-5 at the time, he is clearly a player that was in form. He finished in the top-5 in the Wachovia Championship the previous month and won the Reno-Tahoe Classic in his rookie year last year, so he can certainly beat this weak field. It also helps that he had a particularly impressive debut on this course last year, opening with a 63 and remaining in the top-3 until the final round.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Glover 12.5/1 to place top 5 @ CBET

Strange player to guage as he has numerous top 10's(6) sandwiched by cuts--in fact Toms only player in field with more top 10"s.

Have wagered on him several times at very large odds this year but missed his only top 5. Odds have now regressed on him but if hot this field should not pose problem.

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Maruyama 40ew (GG)
Taylor 80ew (Expekt)
CWarren 125ew (SB)
Hensby 20ew (B365)

 

[lostinamerica]

ODDS AND ENDS:

(1) Virtually all established players with any designs on greatness have designs and game plans for peaking at the major championships. I'm more convinced than ever that "popping early" is a theme that emerges time and again, under a host of circumstances, with the run up to the majors being just one example. Figuring out who "popping early" is going to strike is no easier or harder than chasing any other angle, but IMO it's not wise to deny it's existence, just like it's not sensible to deny that cappers also "pop early" with selections that are very much on track, but a week or two early.

(2) I've offered far less commentary this year regarding my plays and the sport in general. For starters, no matter how much I enjoy mixing metaphors and trotting out hackneyed phrases and misusing verb tenses and prepositional phrases, there is just no denying that figuring things out and then polishing my writing to even come close to saying what I mean and meaning what I say is a labor and not a gift. More significantly, I've found for the last two seasons now running on three that the best way out of a mini-slump or a not so mini-slump is to spend more time on the capping and less time on contributions through observations or analysis. So there is substance lurking behind what frequently becomes for me a "don't you dare say a word" superstition . . . I'll probably be back in my slump-buster mode sooner rather than later.

(3) I've done well this season in my capping at sensing which events I feel in tune with and which events are lacking illumination. Moreover, the illumination and darkness has been uncharacteristically hopping about from one Tour to the other on an almost weekly basis (which might help explain my heightened ability to sense it); furthermore, with surprising frequency, the foggy conditions on Wednesdays have quickly dissipated and been replaced with some significant opportunities after the event is underway, often times even before the start of the second round, and consequently I've been "real patient" (I feel) at waiting out the fog and laying low if nothing is coming to me. So . . . there is no question that last week I felt I saw a clearer picture ragarding the Western Open, while the week before it was the French Open, and since Monday of this week I've felt much better about my handle on potential threats and busts in European and Champions Tour play.

(4) I recognize substantive and structural reasons in my capping to explain my long-standing trend of better results in 18 hole matchups (including Thursday) than 72 hole matchups, but be that as it may, 72 hole matchups continue to be a disappointment vis-a-vis my expectations when starting to regularly cap golf in January of 2002. The only tweak that I've tried, seen improvement with, tried more often, and continued to see favorable results with, is simply this: I've always thought that outright plays were not good choices for 72 hole matchups, as I've already got quite a bit invested; but now, with all things the same as before after ticking, underlining and circling plays on my printout, I've moved toward a more aggressive "go for it and get get something or something more out of a good performance like a 2nd or 6th or 14th or 33rd etc. place performance if you think you are on to something" at 14/1 or 225/1, and stepped out of my longstanding willingness to adopt a "hedging principles counsel that you not put too many eggs in one basket" approach.

(4) I've got some notes on a few other themes in my handicapping that I would like to touch on - including an overdue tip of the cap to Whalers Rule for his calls on Michael Campbell and Jean Van de Velde - but I'm just as likely take a nap after dinner. So for now . . .


OUTRIGHTS:

For starters . . .

Todd Hamilton(100/1) e.w. @ 5dimes
- - It's hard to find names in this field with two wins in the last two seasons . . . I could elaborate on things heard and seen quite recently that suggest backing Hamilton to get in the mix this week, and at least two observations or angles that cut the other way (one of which is the swirl of Michelle Wie chatter) . . . But with a "popping early" date on the calendar, and knowing that true regrets in my own capping come from plays not made, rather than the clunkers that are an inevitable consequence of chasing 14/1 or 225/1 shots, in deciding whether Hamilton makes the cut among the names in the field that I have ticked, underlined or circled on my printout for consideration this week for one reason or another, it comes down to this: the Claret Jug is riding around in the trunk of his car for a second week in a row, and if that something extra sparks something special without me on board, I'll have regrets every time I hear the name Todd Hamilton, until I don't know when . . . Color this play with just a little bit less favorable hints of better form and a favorable mind set - and with 14th place being my actual expectation - this Claret Jug play at 66/1 would still be a no brainer for me EVERY time, whether I have one or seven other plays I can't let go of, either.

GL

lostinamerica

 

[Another Steve]

Track-ter-Supply

Track-ter-Supply

Got back on track last week, need to keep it going.

Going with Jeff as a long shot to Win.

Jeff Maggert WINS JOHN DEERE CL+40.00

Billy Mayfair OV/Nick Price-1.30
J.L. Lewis OV/Dudley Hart-1.10
Jeff Maggert OV/Duffy Waldorf-1.20
Stephen Leaney OV/Brandt Jobe-1.15

I hope Wie makes the cut.

 

[phar lap]

72 hole matchups

Ben Crane -111 vs Oberholser
at Sportsacumen

Duffy Wadlorf -118 vs Baddeley
at Sportsacumen

 

[1NOLE]

hey fella's
Do you think MICHELLE WIE makes the cut :nooo:

 

[rrc]

I'm leaning wie over 1 1/2 birdies for the first rd. Thoughts???

 

[lostinamerica]

Adding . . .

OUTRIGHTS:

Arron Oberholser(40/1) e.w. @ GolfingGods
Heath Slocum(60/1) e.w. @ GolfingGods
Steve Stricker(150/1) e.w. @ Bet365
Dean Wilson(150/1) e.w. @ Bet365

From the moment a lull first appeared in his 2005 campaign, Oberholser has remained an unseated constant as my one and only first choice as the player in 2005 that would not only play well and regularly contend later in the seaon, but would actually succeed in busting through to the winner's circle, and that profile fits snugly in the pantheon of previous Quad-Cities champions . . . I choose to watch for rather than dismiss Slocum's streaky ball striking in my capping . . . Maybe some MJ cappers "popped early" with plays on Stricker last week . . . It's bad enough in capping 3 or 4 events of 500+ players to recognize all you really don't know about 98% of the players on any given Wednesday evening, so it's best not to forget salient angles about the few you might have some clue about, and while Wilson has been on my short list all week, in making my final cuts in the last half hour, it just struck me out of nowhere that Wilson carries something tangible into an event in which Michelle Wie is capturing the headlines.

GL

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

"step right up folk to the greatest show on earth"

The barkers whether for circus or media are all the same--and have nothing ventured except hype--believe it if you will but don't be surprised to see Wies charming smile turn to that "guppy sucking on side of fish bowl expression" she shows when reality hits again.

Birdies props are tough considering one one easiest course (38th) on tour and you never know if another 11 one putt greens could pop up.However one thing you can be sure of that that will NEVER allow a female to be competive in male events is gentics--they can not hit a shot that will hold from 200 yard range.
You saw it with Annika in last skins games watching her woods bounce of firm greens on par 4's--and if you watched there was par 5 in womens open that left the longer hitters around 200 over water on 2nd shot--NOT ONE that I saw went for it in 2 and Wie was only 186 out in middle on fairway on one occasion and laid up.
That won't cut it on the Hooters tour let alone PGA.
With that in mind the best approach on props is the more holes you include in prop the better your chances of reaching the inevitable outcome.

My favs
Mize -120 vs Wie(-1 1/2) strokes "for tourney" NOT 1st rd @ Oly
Wie -130 over 146 1/2 for 36 holes

Granted Mize is approaching 50--one of shortest hitters on tour--would rank about 175 on tour scor ave if he had enough events--BUT that average is 72.21 which if he can shoot to would be ample to cover--as it was in beating her by 10 strokes in 1st 36 holes on her home course in Hawaii earlier this year.

Will be curious to see how Wie progresses--I think her statement-
""I feel like I have nothing to lose,'' she said. "Basically, I'm the underdog here, so I'm just going to have a lot of fun.''

--tells the story--she rides on coatails of press knowing regardless of drubbing, shes getting "lucrative exposer" BUT avoids playing in amatuers events and losing when she suppose to win.(not good press) It is without question the drubbing her amatuer counterparts put on her in Womens Open was the most humiliating experience in her carreer.

 

[rrc]

Wow whatever happened to David Gossett...+11 thru 13 holes.

Didn't he have some talent and supposedly a future?

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

rd 2
wie +116 over 2.5 birdies

More or less a hedge as I believe this # is about right on.
As stated above--very easy course where 121 players in very weak field covered 2 1/2 yesterday.
Her stats went about as expected yesterday with key to any success would be running in putts in plus 15 feet range which lead to her best stat -24th in putts in gir,unless you want to include her rank of 14th in bogies made.

Other wise ball striking was right where expected
DD 139th
DA 68th
GIR's 95th

heres interesting article which answers on question I had on how she got in LPGA Champ--
http://sports.yahoo.golfserv.com/gdc/news/article.asp?Source=YAHOO&id=33601

 

[lostinamerica]

Friday:

Wilson(-112) over Snyder @ 5dimes
- - On the fly and under the wire . . . typical.

GL

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Franco -2.5 over Duval -132 WSEX (2nd R)

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Toms +100 over Cink Oly Cont-- currently 1 down

Tourny can resume to normality as Wie keeps her miss cut streak alive--wouldn't have made a difff if she shot 100,the media and events will keep this side show attraction alive from profit standpoint.Wish she would make cut one time and get a little exposure to week end pins. Lots of bad vibes on LPGA over Nike flying her to Europe on privite jet.

 

[Stanley]

Further outright play (total stake: 1.5pts):

Jeff Sluman to win 14/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power
Long given up hope on three original plays, so adding another at the cut. The Illinois native has been playing particularly well from tee-to-green, ranking 2nd in greens in regulation and 2nd in driving accuracy over the first two rounds and was still improving yesterday when hitting 17 of 18 greens in regulation. He has finished in the top-10 in two of his last three visits to Deere Run and has won twice in neighbouring Wisconsin. A consistent player who should drawn on a large amount of home support if he remains in contention.

 

[Agent 0659]

A few small ones for Sunday for me

Ticket # 26135280
Accepted: 7/9/2005 11:04:52 PM
Wager Type: Future/Prop
Risk: 18
Win: 15
Description: PGA Golf Birdies or Better - John Deere Classic - 4th Round - Cink vs Kuehne - Stewart Cink -? Birdies or Better -120
____________________________________________________________________________________

Ticket # 26135307
Accepted: 7/9/2005 11:12:56 PM
Wager Type: Future/Prop
Risk: 15.75
Win: 15.00
Description: PGA Golf Greens in Regulation - John Deere Classic - 4th Round - Cink vs Mayfair - Stewart Cink +? Greens in Reg. -105
____________________________________________________________________________________

Ticket # 26135308
Accepted: 7/9/2005 11:13:38 PM
Wager Type: Future/Prop
Risk: 6.75
Win: 5
Description: PGA Golf Greens in Regulation - John Deere Classic - 4th Round - Lewis vs Johnson - J.L. Lewis +? Greens in Reg. -135
____________________________________________________________________________________

 

[Stanley]

FINAL RESULT: 0-4; -6.00pts

Cink 29th
Crane wd
Taylor mc
Sluman 66th

Came very close to backing O'Hair at the cut, but opted for Sluman instead. Just about sums up my efforts in this event!

PGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 12-68; +45.21pts
Matchups: 16-15; +3.41pts

All Tours ytd
Outrights: 67-253; +162.09pts
Matchups: 95-65; +88.92pts