John Q. Hammons Hotel Classic

Stanley

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Outright plays (1.5pts):

Hee-Won Han to win 25/1 e.w. @ SkyBet and Ladbrokes
Good price for a player who in the three weeks has reached a playoff, finished 3rd and was lying 4th with one round to play in the last event. She is clearly in excellent form and with Sorenstam making her first start in five weeks, she can certainly win this week. It also helps that Meg Mallon and others are not on the starting sheet.

Laura Diaz to win 40/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes
Backed Diaz at 30/1 last week with no Sorenstam in the field, so 40/1 seems a fair price. Once again, she fell back in the 4th round as after three rounds her positions in her last six events have been 4th, 10th, 12th, 2nd, 4th and 8th. It is therefore a good thing that this is a 54-hole event! Playing well enough to win if she can secure a good final round, these odds are generous enough.

Catriona Matthew to win 50/1 e.w. @ William Hill
It was Matthew who defeated Han in the playoff for the Wendy's Championship for Children and with finishes of 6th and 9th in her two other starts in the past month, she is also clearly a player in good form. With Cedar Ridge being used for the first time, then it must surely be current form that will be most important this week and few in this field can match these three in that department.
 

Stanley

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54-hole plays (1.5pts unless stated):

Catriona Matthew to beat Paula Creamer -125 @ Stan James
Creamer has certainly impressed as an amateur this season, but should struggle to compete with Matthew who has become a very strong contender each week once again.

Catriona Matthew to beat Laura Davies -111 @ Centrebet [3pts]
Davies has shown good form in Europe over the past two months, but she has only finished ahead of Matthew in three of their last ten common LPGA Tour events. Siding with the form player again.

Pat Hurst to beat Laura Davies +100 @ Stan James
Similar story here. Hurst has shown dome good form recently, though not as impressive as Matthew, and she has finished ahead of Davies in seven of their last eight common LPGA Tour events. Will gladly take these odds against those stats.

Karrie Webb to beat Karen Stupples -114 @ Expekt
For all Stupples' form, particularly in Europe, she has only finished ahead of Webb in three of their last ten common events. This may be different course to last year, but backing the defending champion to show a return to form this week.

Will post more plays in the morning if Five Dimes offer matchups.
 

Clive

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Main bet this week is Kung at 66/1

Other small ones in a scattergun approach:

Rankin 150/1
Hart 330/1
C Kim 66/1
Koch 80/1
Taylor 125/1

and a match bet My Hun Kim to beat Grace
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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Clive I sure would like to see Park fire a little this week but it doesn't look like it will happen.
I have been catching some very absurb lines on her. Last week they put up sameplace odds as win and this week they put up "double" odds to place vs win and this book generally eats there mistakes.

Could you pass on this???

John Q. Hammons Classic - Top 5 - Grace Park 28/1
 

Stanley

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Outrights - FINAL RESULT: 0-3; -4.50pts

Han 27th
Diaz 8th
Matthew 27th

Diaz looked as though she might sneak a top-5 finish for a profit on these plays, but finished two shots shy. There was never any hope that she might challenge Sorenstam for the title.

Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 3-1-0; +4.29pts

Matthew/Creamer WON by 2
Matthew/Davies WON by 6
Hurst/Davies WON by 8
Webb/Stupples LOST by 2

Once again the matchups on this Tour bailed out the outright plays.

LPGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 11-52; -21.96pts
Matchups: 59-38; +47.79pts
 
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