John Q. Hammons Hotel Classic

Stanley

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Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)

Jeong Jang to win 25/1 e.w. @ BetFred
Staying clear of players involved in last week's Solheim Cup. There is no starker example of the draining effect of this event than last week's incident where Meg Mallon, who made the putt that won the Cup, had to be taken to hospital after collapsing at the closing ceremony wither heart registering 266 beats per minute. There has been a week off after the last two Solheim Cups, so this is a break from trend, though it is worth noting that after the last three Ryder Cup matches, none of the Americans won the following week on the PGA Tour. So with Jang much fresher than many of the Tour's best players and in better form that the Tour's best players - she has finished 1st, 2nd and 4th in her last three starts - she should be able to take advantage.

Karrie Webb to win 33/1 e.w. @ William Hill
Webb is another player in form and well-rested. She had finished outside the top-20 only once since the start of June (eight starts) before the State Farm Classic two weeks ago and had been in 5th place after the first round of that event. She withdrew on the news that a close friend had died in Florida and that withdrawal is probably the reason for these high odds. But having improved her leaderboard position in every round on her course debut last year and finished 17th, she should be well-placed to return to the form that she showed two weeks ago, if able to fully re-focus on Tour golf.

Heather Bowie to finish in the top-five 10/1 @ Five Dimes
Bowie did earn her maiden Tour win in the Jamie Farr Owens Corning Classic in July, but there was no Annika in that field. In fact, she has finished ahead of the World #1 in a LPGA Tour event only once since July 2003. And while her 3rd place finish in the State Farm Classic two weeks ago showed her form, the fact that she was the first round leader and then failed to break 70 for the next two days only adds to the place-only argument. But that said, she played extremely well on this course last year despite being in very poor form. Last September, she played four times, missed the cut on three occasions and finished 4th on this course. In much better form now, another top-5 finish is a strong possibility.
 

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Matchup plays (1.5pts):

Carin Koch to beat Maria Hjorth -114 @ Expekt
Big difference in form between these two last week. Whereas Koch won twice, halved once and lost only once in her four matches, Hjorth lost three times and won only once. Add in the fact that Koch finished five shots of Hjorth on this course last year and that she has totally dominated this matchup - she has finished behind Hjorth only seven times in 44 common events since 2003 - and this should be a straightforward win.

Jeong Jang to beat Candie Kung -110 @ BetFred
Backing Jang again. Kung did finish 3rd on this course last year and while she has been playing just as well recently, it has not been at the same level as Jang who has four top-5 finishes in her last five starts, whereas Kung does not have a top-10 finish in her last five. No surprise, therefore, that Jang has finished ahead of Kung in four of their last five common events.
 

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Outrights - FINAL RESULT: 0-3; -4.50pts

Jang 6th
Webb 39th
Bowie 32nd

An untimely bogey by Jang on the penultimate hole resulted in her finishing outside the top-5 and a blank on the event.

Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 1-1; -0.21pts

Koch/Hjorth LOST by 4
Jang/Kung WON by 8

Split the plays so at least Jang earned some return for her effort this week.

LPGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 15-45; +17.58pts
Matchups: 38-20; +50.63pts
 
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