Round 4 play (6pts):
David Lynn to beat Ignacio Garrido +100 @ Paddy Power [available generally]
I'm backing Lynn to bounce back tomorrow. He had held a share of the second-round lead in this event, but suffers a very poor day on the course and has now dropped to 25th and six shots off the lead. That may be unsurmountable with such a congested leaderboard, but it will give him added focus not to throw this event away after such a poor 3rd round, as will his current position in the Race to Dubai Standings: he lies 102nd and a decent 4th round will guarantee him a Tour Card for next season. Two other reasons why he should bounce back from today: his course record, which reads 22nd, 16th, mc, 5th, 2nd, 2th, 14th, 44th and 10th in the last nine years, and the fact that he has yet to record a score higher than 72 in the final round throughout 2010. Garrido has been in poorer form, does not have a good record in this event, is a shot further off the pace, and has scores of 76 and 78 in two of his last three final rounds.
[unofficial rd4 system plays: Molinari F tb Molinari E -116; Edberg tb Guerrier -110; Siem tb Parry -125; Rumford tb Randhawa +100; Wilson tb McGrane +105; Dodd tb Aguilar -120; Bourdy tb McGrane -116]