Johnnie Walker Classic

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Stanley

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Outright plays (1 unit):

Ernie Els to win 9/2 available generally
Certainly the top player in this field and deemed to be value at 9/2. He won the Sony Open in very impressive style two weeks ago and has an even more impressive record in this event: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 1st in his last five attempts. He should take a big step towards defending his Order of Merit title this week.

Thomas Bjorn to win 25/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler and Paddy Power
First start of the season for Bjorn, but it certainly would have been no advantage to have been playing in South Africa last week. Last season was certainly a memorable year for the Dane after he came so close to winning the British Open, but he finish the year in style, winning the Dunlop Phoenix Tournament and finishing 3rd in the Hong Kong Open in his last two starts. Any repeat of that form should make him a likely contender to Els.

Colin Montgomerie to win 33/1 e.w. available generally
It's been a long time since Monty was tipped in the outrights here and he was very nearly passed over in favour of Jaidee (66/1), but there are some good reason to expect a strong performance from him. For one, he has won his last events on the Davidoff Tour (2002 TCL Classic and 2003 Macau Open) so he can certainly compete on the type of courses found in this region. And secondly, he was in good form for three rounds in the South African Open. He finished 16th, but if he had only shot 70 (rather than 78) in the 2nd round, he would have joined Immelman in the playoff. Enough reason to hope for a top-5 finish.
 
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Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):

Thomas Bjorn to beat Ian Poulter -111 @ Centrebet [2 units]
Backing an outright selection against a player who is a standard player to oppose in matchups. Bjorn beat him in 13 of their 19 common events across all Tours last year so these look good odds.
(available generally)

Adam Scott to beat Ian Poulter -120 @ Bet365 [2 units]
Also opposing Poulter with Scott who looked impressive when finishing 2nd in the Australian Masters last month and 7th in the Mercedes Championship earlier this month.
(also available at Victor Chandler)

Thongchai Jaidee to beat Ben Curtis -111 @ BetandWin [2 units]
Will oppose Curtis a great deal this year as he chases the money from his British Open win. Very easy to oppose him with Jaidee who won in Thailand only last month (Asian Masters) and finished in the top-10 in the Thailand Open last week. He will cope with the conditions much better than his Major-winning opponent.

Thongchai Jaidee to beat David Smail -125 @ Paddy Power
Opposing the injured Smail who played with cracked ribs two weeks ago only because it was his home Open. He did finish 3rd on that occasion, but without a similar fast start, he could be grateful to having the weekend off. That should not happen to Jaidee.

Nick Faldo to beat Charl Schwartzel -138 @ Pinnacle
It could happen to Faldo, but he did finish in a very respectable 15th place in his last event, the Hong Kong Open last month and he did win this event twice in the 1990s. Schwartzel, on the other hand, misses a lot more cuts and will surely struggle to raise his game having played (poorly) in the last two weeks in South Africa.

Colin Montgomerie to beat Justin Rose -111 @ William Hill and Easybets [2 units]
Rose was very disappointing last week and he also should suffer from having played in the last two events in South Africa before flying to Thailand to play in this event. Monty should be fresher and has finished 10th and 16th in his last two European Tour events, Rose's last top-10 finish was back in August.

Hennie Otto to beat Marcel Siem -107 @ Five Dimes
Simply opposing the winner of last week's event. It was in a playoff, it involved a player who was winning his maiden title and had folded under final round pressure on previous occasions and it was in another continent. Fully expect Siem to miss the cut this week.
 
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lal2000

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JW Outrights ? 0.5 unit e.w.

P Marksaeng ? 66/1 @ Chandler
B Ruangkit ? 125/1 @ Sky Bet
L W Zhang ? 80/1 @ Bet 365
B Curtis ? 125/1 @ Chandler
G Havret ? 125/1 @ Chandler
J Randhawa ? 100/1 @ Sporting Bet

Good Luck!
 
L

lostinamerica

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Bangkok just sounds oppressive, and The Weather Channel confirms it, with no breeze to speak of.

OUTRIGHTS:

Colin Montgomerie(28/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
From what he says and what I've seen, Colin should be and seems to be, right on the cusp of something approaching a very positive statement with his game (after which there is no point in my hoping that I won't hear him crow about it) . . . Thankfully, with the dozens of possibilities crowding my thinking each week in each event, I came across some information that seems more substantial than I usually uncover: ( http://www.colinmontgomerie.com/news/fulltext.sps?sid=21243&lid=1&aid=29143&atpval=0 ) I especially like the passages: " . . . On to the lessons learned and the solutions . . . My 2004 schedule will not be revolving around those events I think would be good for me. Instead, I'm going to play where I feel comfortable. I'm comfortable in Asia . . . Sink as far as I did and you have no option but to sort out the foundations." . . . I'm telling myself these are much the same signs I was seeing from Westwood when I fumbled my chance to hammer a play on him in the BMW last year, and maybe this will be similar to the story last year at Houston when Stan struck gold with his first outright play on Fred Couples in quite some time . . . And I'm not quite sure how the numbers at Stan's site churn out a No.2 rating for Monty in this event, but there it is.

Briefly . . . I stuck to my guns with Steve Webster(80/1)(Bet365), charting a route to Asia of getting humbled after stepping up, but now I see he is not listed with the 1st round pairings . . . Westwood was almost a selection, but I've heard his talk about his own good play that seems a bit stronger than what I've seen, which is an angle I'm usually not quick to wager on . . . I've got my eyes on Faldo for next week, so I'm hoping for just some hints this week . . . Peter Lawrie at 120/1 is too large to pass up for a few dollars on an "unofficial" play . . . Lafeber is the odd man out, for Thursday, anyway.

GL
 
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lostinamerica

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british bulldog

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Johnnie Walker Classic

1.5 point WIN Els 9/2

1 point EW Montgomerie 33/1

1 point EW Bjorn 25/1

0.75 point EW Davis(B) 40/1

0.5 point EW Downes 150/1


Total stakes 8 points
 
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lostinamerica

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Nick Faldo(14/1) for 0.50* e.w. (1/4 for Top 4) @ Bet365

Last year I noted a theory I have about players "popping early" - a week ahead of a big event on their calendar (i.e., one of the majors, a hometown tournament, a tournament "that owes them one", etc.). The theory is prominent in my handicapping notes to start the year, and has been on my brain every week so far this season. It was clearly prominent when I capped Faldo this week (I made a point of referencing it in my prior post), as next week was lined up as an opportunity to announce his presence at Royal Melbourne, which he called "my favorite course in the world" before finishing a shot behind Els and in a tie for second place last year.

Additionally, a tenet of my capping strategy to start this year is to reduce the number of outright plays prior to the tournament, and jump on certain players when they come through in the early going with the right stuff, paying particular attention to players on my short list of best candidates going into the event. The multiple prongs underlying the evolution of that strategy include: (a) hands down, the info I achieve the best return on during the prior two seasons has come from watching the players and the action with my own eyes, and also seeing the unique rhythms and themes that unfold during the course of each event, and also from information related during the broadcasts (in this regard, 3rd round plays after two days of close spectating, have easily been my most profitable): and (b) recognizing that in a field of 150+ players, it's scary what you don't know about those you like and those you haven't really considered.

Just for starters in this event, 10 minutes of scanning a VCR tape this morning showed me a course with soft greens, soft fairways and no wind, which are elements of a shooting gallery and putting contest (on some love them or hate them surfaces) that plays to the strengths of Ian Poulter's game. And call me an ignorant novice, but that's really not what I was expecting to see.

So for a little elaboration on my Faldo play. The post-round write-up on europeantour.com sums up better than I could the effort and focus that Nick has brought to the start of this season. The signs of a valedictory stretch to his fabulous career have been popping up since long before his last outing in December. I didn't see any of Nick's play from the first round, but the statement he made while paired with Els tells me he is poised about matching shots with all comers at the moment. No tough winds in the afternoons and no change in the weather is in the forecast. Johnnie Walker is an event that holds significance in Faldo's illustrious career. While some moments of creakiness are certain to appear, players of Faldo's stature are often good bets to feed off these moments and quickly tap into a reservoir of knowing exactly what it takes to seize an opportunity.

It took less than two holes of viewing last week for me to consider Mickelson an obvious play. This play on Faldo certainly seems more a matter of faith and expectations. It's too late to do anything about not pulling the trigger earlier on Faldo in a spot that was so clearly scripted with "popping early" that he was even paired with the giant to whom he finished second at Royal Melbourne. Simply put, I like the chances of Faldo being in with a shout down the stretch on Sunday at better odds than 14/1 e.w.

:tmi:

GL
 
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S

Stanley

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Outrights - Final update: 1-2; +0.63 units

Els 10th
Bjorn 2nd
Montgomerie 13th

What a ****er! Cue memories of last year's Open Championship, in the final round Bjorn stood on the tee at the 14th and 17th par-5 holes tied with Jimenez for the lead. Both times he carved his drive over 60 yards to the right and into lakes that were no more than cosmetic additions to the course! He had been leading after every round until it really mattered. Monty suffered a similar loss of ability when dropping shots on the 14th and 15th. He finished two shots out of a tie for 4th place. And he was "very nearly passed over in favour of Jaidee (66/1)" ... and Jaidee did finish 4th. Could have, should have, but didn't finish a great week!

Matchups - Final update: 4-3-0; +2.28 units

Bjorn/Poulter WON by 2
Scott/Poulter LOST by 6
Jaidee/Curtis WON by 10
Jaidee/Smail TIED (loss)
Faldo/Schwartzel WON by 7
Montgomerie/Rose WON by 6
Otto/Siem LOST by 2

Small profit on the week with the winners never really looking like losing. Could have had a couple more though ... Jaidee tied with Smail, but this was at a book where ties lose and Siem did miss the cut as predicted ... I've definitely cooled on Otto over the past month.
 
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