Johnnie Walker Classic

[Stanley]

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)

Miguel Angel Jimenez to win 20/1 e.w. available generally
Siding with players who have a proven history in this region and very few can compare with these three. Since winning the Johnnie Walker Classic in Thailand last year, Jimenez has since finished 6th, 1st, 1st and 6th in his next events in Asia. One of those wins (Asian Open) was in China as well, so three wins in five starts in this region in the past year is a pretty impressive ratio for a 20/1 shot. His 2005 form is also good with a 2nd place finish in his last European Tour start, the Dubai Desert Classic, and a decent showing in the Masters two weeks ago. Should be shorter than the 20/1 available.

Colin Montgomerie to win 25/1 e.w. available generally
Monty's form in this region is rather impressive as well: 3rd, 1st, 1st, 13th, 16th, 1st, 2nd, 6th and 4th in his last nine starts in Asia. One of those wins (2002 TCL Classic) came in China and his last Tour win was in this region (2004 Caltex Masters). With 2005 form that reads 2nd, 11th, 5th, 4th, 6th and 4th, there are plenty of numbers that support Monty this week and with him refreshed from not playing in the Masters and with a new lease of life after his divorce year last year, he should be another on the leaderboard throughout the week.

Thomas Bjorn to win 33/1 e.w. @ Bet365 and William Hill
Did come very close to nominating K.J. Choi for the final berth, but will settle on a regular selection for these events, Thomas Bjorn. In the last eighteen months, he has played in seven events in this region and finished in the top-4 in all but one of them. He may have gifted the title to Jimenez last year (when a selection), but he has shown enough form in 2005 (including 3rd with one round to play in the Masters) to suggest that he will at least give himself another chance this year.

 

[phar lap]

72 hole match bet

Luke Donald -118 vs Adam Scott
at Centrebet

 

[phar lap]

One more 72 hole match

Barry Lane -120 vs Michael Campbell
at Sportsacumen.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1pt unless stated):

Retief Goosen to beat Luke Donald -135 @ Olympic
Opposing Donald who has never played in Asia with someone who may have only limited experience here, but has at least finished in the top-5 each time. Given that Goosen holds a 8-1-0 h2h record against Donald in all events bar the PGA Tour, he deserves to be the strong favourite in this match.
(also available at Nordicbet)

Colin Montgomerie to beat Luke Donald +105 @ William Hill and Easybets
Donald would justify favouritism on the PGA Tour or in European, but in Asia it is a different matter. Not only does Monty have a great record in this region, but he has played in China (other than Hong Kong) three times before this week, finishing 1st, 1st and 6th in the process. That advantage from local knowledge of course and weather conditions will more than offset the difference in quality between these tow players.

Barry Lane to beat Nick Dougherty -125 @ Five Dimes
With two successive top-5 finishes, Lane is clearly a player in form and while he is unlikely to repeat that feat against this field, he should again play well in this region. He has never missed a cut in China (including Hong Kong) and has finished in the top-30 in nine of his last ten starts in Asia. Dougherty may have won the Caltex Masters in Singapore in January, but he cannot match Lane for consistency.
(also available at Sportingbet and Sporting Odds)

Barry Lane to beat Paul Lawrie -114 @ Expekt [2pts]
With a 15-5-1 h2h record over the past year and a 2-0-0 h2h record in this region, Lane really should beat Lawrie who was very disappointing at San Roque on Sunday. A long-haul flight to China will have done little to raise his confidence.
(also available at Ladbrokes)

James Kingston to beat Richard Sterne -111 @ Ladbrokes
Sterne is another with no experience in Asia and that should work against him this week, particularly against an Asian PGA Tour regular. Kingston has plenty of experience of playing in China and given that he holds a 13-6-2 h2h advantage over Sterne over the past year anyway, he should win on familiar territory with ease.

 

[lostinamerica]

OUTRIGHTS:

Thomas Bjorn(28/1) e.w. @ Bet365
- - A big event with big guns lining up at a new venue in Asia is close to a natural as a spot for Bjorn to kick his demons in the nuts and savor at least a temporary respite. Most Nicklaus designs also offer a natural fit to the Danes hammering shots and aggressive style. A comfortable pairing with Goosen and Zhiang is only enhanced by the April 16 Bjorn/Goosen paricipation in the skins game in Thailand for tsunami relif in which Bjorn played well throughout.

Paul Lawrie(100/1) e.w. @ Bet365
- - On the Tour's first swing through Asia, it was readily apparent how close Lawrie was to turning the corner if he stayed patient and managed to quit wasting shots when every opportunity existed to save shots. If Lawrie had scored a 100/1 win in Portugal without my backing, I'd have been happy for him, had a laugh and a cry, and just moved on from there . . . In his last two events, even some dodgy putting hasn't stymied the rest of Lawrie's short game from getting sharper and more confident in moments of increasing significance. Now it's back to Asia for a showcase event, and throw in some very breezy conditions and some readable Nicklaus style contours to the greens and you get much the stage I'd select (albeit half way around the world) for a chance for Lawrie to display the level his game is at.



MATCHUPS:

Lane(-150) over Dougherty (Tournament) @ 5dimes
- - For several tournaments I haven't liked the way Little Nick has been swinging, not at all. A full week in stiff breezes doesn't seem like a proper prescription for sorting much out, and I don't look for Nick's putter to carry him. Lane offers about all I could hope for as a tournament matchup, other than my typical deliberate style having cost me a chance to get Lane at +100 when this line opened; as a consolation, at least some other cappers are liking the matchup as well.

Pa.Lawrie(+138) over Bowditch/Strange (Thursday) @ Bet365
- - I love 3-Balls, and the prices are a big part of it.

Lafeber(-110) over Marksaeng (Tournament) @ 5dimes
- - I think the wrong player is favored in this matchup, and more importantly, I think it will play out accordingly.


GL

 

[Stanley]

Outrights - FINAL RESULT: 0-3; -3.00pts

Jimenez 70th
Montgomerie 6th
Bjorn 30th

Monty's birdie putts shaved the edge of the hole on the last two greens and it meant that he finished one shot out of a top-5 payout place. Close, but no return on the outrights.

Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 4-1-0; +3.94pts

Goosen/Donald WON by 4
Montgomerie/Donald WON by 1
Lane/Dougherty WON by 5
Lane/Lawrie WON by 1
Kingston/Sterne LOST by 12

Edged a couple of close ones in the matchups so justifiably ended the tournament in profit, albeit a small one.

Asian PGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 2-12; -9.50pts
Matchups: 9-9; +0.49pts