Outrights:
Nick Dougherty(40/1) e.w.
- - On the verge of getting seriously involved in the mix for 72 holes, well before the Tour arrives back in GB&I in May, and probably more than just once, IMO. This moment for a return to the fray seems properly positioned for such a go, and the venue seems a fair fit with the strengths of Little Nick's game if he's in his best form and is therefore mentally sharp about keeping the big numbers from popping up on his scorecard . . . or maybe I'm a little premature, and I get the joy of supporting him again real soon at an equally skinny price.
Peter Hanson(66/1) e.w.
- - He's been on my short list all season, and at least at the moment I like him best on courses where low scores will be hard work, and I can't deny a palpable sense that I'm pegging the right guy to snatch from the air whatever immediate inspiration there is floating about from Hank Stenson's emphatic arrival.
Paul Lawrie(80/1) e.w.
- - Another that looks on the verge of sustaining a serious presence over 72 holes, at least once, IMO, and although I like this just returning to the fray moment better for Dougherty, this price almost makes this play more to my liking.
Peter O'Malley(66/1) e.w.
- - The Fred Funk of the European Tour can take inspiration from said Fred's exploits; the form of the old Aussie campaigner for this year has been building on his good stuff from last year; the premium on ball striking at Blue Canyon C.C. was documented with a T-4 by O'malley in 1998, and he doesn't lack for other strong performances in these regions . . . This could well be his chance, but talk about your twitching assholes on Sunday - c'mon man, pull yourself together!
Shingo Katayama(66/1)
- - Gets the nod over Lucquin for a final play, and likely one play too many. I don't think Lucquin can match the brilliance of his play on his last outing - which still wasn't good enough - while Katayama ranks 6th in Stan's rankings. Notwithstanding Katayama's struggles in Asia, IMO, when he leaves the little island of Japan, I think this is a big enough spot for one of his better efforts thereabouts in Asia, and then a pairing with Casey has potential IMO and was the final piece behind my decision.
Ross Fisher(80/1) e.w.
- - OK, six plays at middling odds is sometimes 1 or 2 too many plays - and sometimes not - but specifically with regard to this week, the quality of the names dominating the final leaderboard at this venue in 1988 strongly suggests a similar look to this year's final leaderboard, and creates a sense that fewer plays, or plays on the likes of Adam Scott and other highly ranked champions, is the proper approach for this week . . . And now I'll designate this as a second play that earns the nod over Lucquin, which probably seals the deal when it comes to unwittingly identifying better options for my money and erecting specious support beneath this play.
GL