Johnnie Walker Classic

[Stanley]

Outright plays (0.75 units):

Robert Allenby to win 20/1 e.w. @ SkyBet and BlueSq
Avoiding the South Africans who rightly head the market this week and will hope for a strong home effort instead. This is Allenby's first start in Australia this year, but he did put in a strong performance in the Sony Open in Hawaii last month. It was his fourth top-6 finish in five Tour events spanning the New Year and two of those events were on the Australasian Tour. He is not a player to back in putting contests, but on a challenging track he should go close.

Adam Scott to win 33/1 e.w. @ BlueSq
Missed the cut last week and the odds reflect that. It was his first start of the year though, so some rustiness was to be expected. He also had a poor performance on this course last year, but that was also his first start of the year and he did bounce back for a top-15 finish the following week (he had been in the top-3 in-running). After closing last season with five consecutive top-10 finishes, including two runners-up spots, he is too good a player for these odds and should bounce back again in the second week of his season.

Nick Faldo to finish in the top-five 10/1 @ Five Dimes
Twice a winner of this title (1990 and 1993), Faldo is another who prospers on the tougher courses. He could have won the Heineken Classic around Royal Melbourne a fortnight ago, but faltered on the final day. Nevertheless, it continued his run of excellent form in Australia. Apart from two missed cuts in the 2001 season, he has finished no worse than 16th in his last ten starts on Australian soil. His ability to hold onto the lead in Melbourne does point however to the place-only option being the best strategy this week. He is competitive again, but he has not won a tournament since 1997.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (0.75 units):

Gary Evans to beat Ian Woosnam -113 @ Pinnacle
Not expecting a good week from Woosie. He hasn't played in Australia since he missed the cut in the 1999 Heineken Classic and in three of his last five seasons he has missed the cut in his first event. He ended 2002 in good form, but this is strange week to begin his 2002 season as next week's event is co-sanctioned with the Davidoff Tour. Having never played this course either, he is opposed with a player who has played well in the last two weeks in Australia and did play in this event last year.

Soren Hansen to beat Ian Woosnam -111 @ BetandWin
Hansen is another who has played two events in Australia so far and so is much better prepared for this event. They were both top-30 finishes and a repeat should be more than enough to win this match.

Soren Kjeldsen to beat Ian Woosnam -118 @ Expekt
By the same measure, Kjeldsen should be a stronger fancy to beat Woosnam. His Australian starts have yielded a 4th place and a 12th place finish in the last two weeks and he finished in the top-20 last year. He is another consistent, acclimatised player.

Steve Webster to beat Paul McGinley -111 @ BetandWin
Would have liked to oppose McGinley more, but sticking with just this match. This is his first start of the new season and he certainly looked very tired at the end of last season. It was no surprise that his form dipped after the Ryder Cup. Again opposing a 2003 debutant with a player who has played in the last two weeks - two mid-table finishes - and last year on this course - again a mid-table finish.

Nick Faldo to beat Jarrod Moseley -110 @ BlueSq [-111 @ BetandWin]
Should be a good match between the resurgent Faldo and the local man, Moseley. Both should be contenders this week, but Faldo should have the edge. In the two Australasian Tour events that he has played in the last two months, he has beaten Moseley both times and he beat him on this course last year as well.

David Lynn to beat Kevin Na -111 @ BetandWin
Na was a very welcome 40/1 winner two months ago, but that was in Malaysia and golf on a tough Australian course is quite different. He has never played competitively in this country until this week and finished a lowly 55th in the Singapore Masters three weeks ago in his last outing. Lynn finished 30 places ahead of him that week and has since secured a top-5 finish in the Heineken Classic and made the weekend last week, which should be more than Na will achieve this week.

Peter O'Malley to beat Lian-Wei Zhang -111 @ BetandWin
Opposing Zhang for similar reasons to Na. He won the Singapore Masters three weeks ago - the only person to finish ahead of Els this year - but his record in Australia is very poor. He has missed the cut four times in seven starts, including last year on this course, with just one top-20 finish. O'Malley has been struggling this year, but he is much too good a player to remain in this slump. He finished ahead of Zhang last year and will surely resume his impressive home form sooner or later.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Sheez Looks like I have to get up earlier. A couple of these have move to -150 @ B&W

 

[Stanley]

Unlike their matchups on the Seniors which have completely disappeared since the Player-Palmer debacle :shrug:

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

:lol: That was the worst line I believe I have witnessed Stan.
If they don't have your account flagged there yet with your assault on them so far someone is sleeping,either their linesmaker or you with the owners daughter

From your timestamp it looks as if I need to go to bed later and not get up earlier

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
If last week is any indication it looks like place only on beards is gone @ 5dimes and Sia also. Maybe just a void week,I Hope.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Oops Back @ SIA

 

[Stanley]

From your timestamp it looks as if I need to go to bed later and not get up earlier

And I need to do the opposite :lol:

 

[lostinamerica]

I read two credible sources that stated that Lake Karrinyup is decidedly to the liking of players that shape their shots right to left. DTB wondered in the Buick thread if there was a handy reference available for the home state of each player, and I confess that without a similar scorecard, I?m about as likely to recall offhand a mid-table player?s strengths on a links course or troubles in the 4th round (or sometimes what tournament he met his spouse at!) as I am the shape of his shots (or the length of his putter!). It?s scary to think about what you don?t know that can hurt you in a field of 150+ golfers.

OUTRIGHTS:

Nick Faldo(40/1 and 50/1) for 0.60* e.w. @ Bet365 and 5dimes
I see a live dog.

Retief Goosen(9/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ 5dimes
I think Retief is close. At least he has the right ball flight.

Jamie Donaldson(125/1) for 0.40* e.w. @ Bet365
Rather than sorting through the locals, I'll try these odds on a youngster that I?ve had my eyes on and is showing kind of well at the moment.

P.S. I thought about posting a play on Player vs. Palmer even though it wasn't available to me, and then begging Stan to have it count toward my standings for the year. That one wasn't fair at any price.

GL

 

[sports student]

1st round @ 5dimes

Goosen +118 over Els

Goosen usually a better 1st round player, hard to pass up the price

 

[steved]

watching the books and who they duck...

best so far for Euro Tour is ducking Karlsson (33 as opposed to 66 (Coral))...thought track might be too tight for him, but reports indicate not perhaps as tight as last year, so he gets 0.5 ew...

also short is Moseley who gets 0.5 ew at 50/1

finally, had 0.5 ew on one for the future Eddie Lee 250/1 (VChandler)...

 

[Anders]

As per, playing Allenby and Scott from Stan's outrights and will add local boy O'Hern at 36-1 (Canbet).

Also taking most of the matchup - omitting Faldo and O'Malley - and adding:

Allenby o Rose -111
Dougherty o Lafeber -111

GL all

 

[bettingmad]

I've gone match betting mad this week!

S Kjeldsen 10/11 to beat D Howell 10/11 Blue Square

This looks a total mismatch and is the must bet of the week! Kjeldsen has a 12th and 4th on his last 2 outings compared to Howell's 34th and missed cut in the same events. The other major plus point is the tee times. Kjeldsen is 7:10 & 11:50 in the 2nd group out morning and afternoon each day. Howell is 9:00 and 13:40 the final group out morning and afternoon. Although there are only 2 hours between lst and last group Kjeldsen has a 1 hour 50 minute advantage both days in which the greens will be spikier and hopefully the expected later in the day wind will be well blowing! Howell also has an amateur in his 3 ball who will hopefully play red arrows and disjoint the play a little!

I admit I have a history of ties in match bets particularly when it's 'ties lose'! So the only word of warning would be that they both finished 17th here last year!!

 

[milpalm]

Immelman (20/1), Allenby (20/1) and Faldo (50/1) for me. They have all done well this year and should enjoy this track.

 

[lostinamerica]

MATCHUPS:

One so far that I need to get posted:

Faldo(-150) over Poulter (Tournament) for 1* @ 5dimes
While I was waiting for something better to come along involving Faldo I missed out on the (-135) that was first offered.

I'm getting a good (late) chance now to look closer at the 3 Balls and some additional matchups, but these starts in Australia come up way too fast for me.

GL

 

[bettingmad]

That was funny.... event the amateur beating Kjeldsen in the first round

 

[Anders]

Here's hoping he forgets to pack his puffer in his bag today then ...

Ian Woosnam battled through bronchitis to shoot a first round five-under-par 67 at the Johnnie Walker Classic on Thursday.
The Welshman has not played for two months and was pleased with the score which kept him in touch with Ernie Els, leading on 64, but he walked from the course out of breath.
Woosnam, 44, said: ``It was a good scrambling sort of round and as it was the World Cup when I last played, I wasn't looking forward to it at all to be honest.
``I just can't shrug off this bronchitis I have and I can feel it getting worse as you go round the course.
``I can feel it in my breath and my voice is starting to go a little bit. I have finished with the antibiotics but I still have my inhaler although I didn't take it with me out on the course but I might do that tomorrow.''

 

[nomad]

Hope this helps to explain things a little

[B][U]Day 1[/B][/U]
         Avg.     Sub-Par
Morn.	71.7	36
Aft.	72.7	23

[B][U]Day 2[/B][/U]
         Avg.     Sub-Par	
Morn.	70.6	47
Aft.	71.7	35

The following link shows pretty good equivalent wind speed measurements for the Lake Karrinyup area.

www.seabreeze.com.au

The images go a long way to showing how little wind there was in the afternoon on the second day (Friday) compared with the first day (Thursday).

As you can see at about midday on the Thursday the wind turned direction and jacked right up but it didn't happen Friday.

 

[Stanley]

Mid-point update:

Evans/Woosnam Trails by 3
Hansen/Woosnam LOST (Hansen withdrew after 1st round)
Kjeldsen/Woosnam Trails by 2
Webster/McGinley LOST by 9
Faldo/Moseley Trails by 1
Lynn/Na Leads by 6
O'Malley/Zhang WON by 5

Allenby 2nd
Scott mc
Faldo 49th

Not a great start to the event. Behind or already down in all three matches against Woosnam and Els is scintillating form. Great round by Allenby today, but a backward nine of 29 and Els has a four-shot lead. Looks like Allenby will need a lot of assistance if this is to be a profitable event.

 

[Stanley]

Final update:

Matchups: 2-5-0; -2.72 units

Evans/Woosnam LOST by 1
Kjeldsen/Woosnam LOST by 1
Faldo/Moseley LOST by 3
Lynn/Na WON by 4

Outrights: 1-2; -1.35 units

Allenby 4th
Faldo 46th

Looked like being a profitable event until two hours from the end. Allenby had been 3rd but bogeyed the 17th hole to end in a tie for 4th place with four others, but more frustrating was Woosnam's four birdies in his last five holes to deny Evans and Kjeldsen (where ties would not lost) by a single shot. Great display of golf by Els, yet again.

Australasian Tour ytd
Matchups: 15-12; +4.55 units
Outrights: 4-8; -1.35 units

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Looks like ole Murphy is hanging out on all tours this week.
Some bad beats Stan.