JT Sneaks is God

[Nolan Dalla]

I've been really impressed with what JT Sneaks has been doing here at this forum for quite some time. His NBA record speaks for itself.

Tonight, I came to the forum for a last minute look before calling in two late plays.

I read JT's breakdown of the WASH-SANT game where he touted SANT -8.5 in the FH and WASH +15.5 for the game.

Both bets won (by a half point).

What really facinates me about this, other than picking up the win, was the way JT broke down the game mentally -- suggesting the Spurs would build an early lead, and then the Bullets would close for a backdoor cover. He nailed both plays.

I'm curious to know how much success (if any) JT or anyone else has had doing a contradictory hedge play like this? In other words, you play one team to win the half, but the opposite team to win the game?

It's tough enough to predict which teams will show up on any given night, but I like the idea of playing very strong teams that are double digit favorites, perhaps to cover for the game, but to lose the first half. It seems to me that big favorites mnore often than not struggle in the first half, and place a close game, then pull away in the second half as the talent disparity comes into play. Of course, every game is different, but the idea of playing TEAM A to win the first half and TEAM B to win the second half is worth looking into.

I'd welcome other opinions on this and also want to thank JT for his contribution to this forum.

Nolan Dalla

 

[Randercity]

The best thing about JT is his ability to listen to others and confer or differ, BUT at least read into what others may say. He's very in tune with the NBA, but even he suggested listening to others in regards to the FH or whatever concerning the game. beertime was the MAN for FH plays, but has been absent for sometime, so in his absence, I stepped up and gave my opinion since JT asked for it. SPURS have been notorious all year for building big leads, only to lose them late, and JT knows this. ONCE, we got the FH play in, it was a great call to go the other way in 2H. Most NBA games go back and forth in spurts, and when you get in sync with that ebb and flow, and how it relates to FH and 2H plays, it's great!!

JT and I worked great together for a long stretch last season, and hopefully will do so again this season.

You yourself are a great capper, and I hope you're statement was said in honesty and not sarcasm. JT gives us great insight without the brashness of myself or others here, and he does a great job. The BEST I've ever witnessed in the NBA, so Nolan, feel free to join in on our HT analysis, it gets to be quite fun!!

 

[Nolan Dalla]

RanderCity:

I didn't mean to slight you or anyone else by giving JT all the credit.

I realize it was a dialogue between a couple of people and the HALF / SIDE play was hammered out amongst multiple contributors.

FWIW, I have no experience with betting second halfs. So, I'm eager to read and listen to learn more.

I do want to say that the advance play of hedging (TEAM A first half and TEAM B to cover for the game) is very interesting. I was looking to find out if there is any correlation for playing teams in such situations that proves profitable over a certain period.

EXAMPLE: Play Dog of 6+ to win first half, but play against the dog of 10+ to win the game. Again, it seems to me that good teams often go through the motions inb the first half, then often pull away in the second. I'm looking to hear from others who have been successful with such trends.

Thanks for respopnding.

Nolan Dalla

 

[yyz]

I made a killing on the Bucks over the last two seasons, when they were big chalk. They would win the 1st half, and blow the line overall. It was unreal how often it happened. This season, there were a couple of spots early, where the same thing held true. I can't recommend it now, though, with their play of late.

 

[JT Sneaks]

Nolan,

Thanks for the kind words, always nice to hear.

As far as the contradictory hedge play is concerned I am not the best person to ask, as I rarely focus on first half plays, but concentrate more on the entire game and second half plays.

Although I do not play first halves often I do have a theory on this particular situation. Veteran teams often look to get a big lead against bad teams early in the game hoping they can rest their older players, especially if they have a big game coming up next. Veteran teams also do not panic if they are leading a team by thirty and the lead gets cut to twenty, they will still play slow ball and look to run out the clock. Young teams, especially poor teams, are in the familiar situation of being down by a lot of points so continue to stick with a game plan that should produce points against a team, especially if that team is now playing back ups. This theory works the exact opposite in the playoffs.

A veteran team often is content with playing at an equal level in the first half, and they look for separation in the second half, more importantly in the beginning of the third quarter. I have had heard countless interviews with superstars on champion teams that proclaim the beginning of the third to be the most critical part of the game. I do not have numbers on this, but I do remember that in the NBA playoffs last year, the team that would cover in the first half would be a go against in the second half. When I looked into this a bit further it was the veteran teams that would often fail to cover in the first only to pull away and cruise in the second half.

Remember this is only a theory, but I hope it helps.

Thanks again,

JT

Sneaks

 

[Randercity]

No harm done... I'm used to being OVER-SHADOWED by the master... I'm merely a grasshopper under his wing...

As far as what you brought up, JT would be more inclined to give input on that. I do my best work at HT, analazing what has taken place so far, and anticipating what coaches/players will do in the latter part of the game. Most plays are simple mathematics, ie, JAZZ under 2H tonite. The line is 190, they score 119 in FH, and both hit for over 50% from the field and go 9 of 14 from 3. NOT gonna happen again!! What happens, they come back and score 85, EXACTLY what I said to expect. It's not normally that easy, but I play almost EVERY half UNDER 2H, that goes fifteen or more over the anticipated line for FH. It's not rocket science, merely law of averages. Teams shoot around 42% or so, so expect that each nite. If they're hitting over 52%, it's gonna slow down most nites...

I also like taking GOOD home teams at home when behind at the half, or about even. SAC was an easy winner for me tonite, although the suddenly slumping BUCKS never showed up, and failed to get close. This is usually profitable also.

That's it in a nutshell, come join and see. Some nites it seems easy, others, well, we drink them off and forget em!!!

 

[MrChristo]

Hi, guys.
This is my first post (although I have been following this forum for a while now), so I hope you don't mind me 'butting in' on the big boys!

I love HT plays also. I use the correlation between FG attempts and points scored to determine when/what to play.

ie. At HT in the Minni/Seattle game there were 82 shots taken but 105 points scored!
I've found that these 2 figures tend to even up over a full game, so I was very keen on the second half under.
(I also hit the under in the SA/Wash game)

I usually look at the FG attempts at HT and if the second half total is +/- 10 of this figure, then that is the play I will make.

I hope this helps people, and sorry again for the interuption.

 

[ClubFoot]

I've been observing behind the scenes for a while too and JT's & RC's performance during these games is unbelievable. Some nights they have helped me make a come back after getting my ass kicked and I truly appeciate their capping expertise. In fact, I am considering naming our first born JT Sneaks because of it. Great job y'all!!!

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Making money ain't nothing exciting to me. You might be able to buy a little better booze than the wino on the corner. But you get sick just like the next cat and when you die you're just as graveyard dead.

 

[hawkeye]

we still miss the master of 1st half lines-beertime--maybe he will be back soon-hope to seee him htis weekend for a beer-maybe i cn twist his leg-gl

 

[Hailmary]

sorry it posted the same twice

[This message has been edited by Hailmary (edited 12-05-2001).]

 

[Hailmary]

I know we are talking basketball here but the same has held true this year in college FB for East Carolina. They came out and built early leads in almost every game only to let their opponent's come back in the second half. Just an extra something to look at following this theory.

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Gambling is a drug and I'm a junky.
Bombs away!!!!

 

[meatman]

I find this very interesting-some
great info here on halftime wagering.
This kind of discussion is what helps
all of us. Thanks

 

[Valuist]

Last year's Bulls team was great for:

1) play on them in the first half
2) fade them in the second half.

Unlike San Ant, they don't build to many big first half leads (although they did last night). I may use this exact strategy tonight vs Orlando.

 

[alienx]

NOLAN IS A PROPHET.

I think it is time we figure what kind of ritiual we'll follow for God Almighty. And timing is important too. I think we should pray to JTSneaks every afternoon before the early games tipoff and later when we see the bookie. As our prophet Nolan should tell us.

Just trying to stir some soup. Hope nobody gets offended. Mr Sneaky has great caping abilities and a NBA league pass to go w/ it. It is a great input for those not whatching the games. Chit, It's still great input when whatching the game. To say the least, the ride of 2 half plays has been great. Profitable and enjoyable.
I would like thank God, for sharing his insight and great picks.

I think everybody contributing is doing a great job. Thanks Randercity, TJBELL, Nolan. Great Forum.

 

[pizmo]

To Alienx to remark: AMEN