JT Sneaks, RC, Nolan?

[Padre]

First, i would like to comment as did Nolan on such a great job JT and RanderCity did on the NBA. What i think was even better was that they worked together in the same trend and worked out some great plays, and i think that in itself made them work even harder to break down the games together, rather than have seperate trends. I think that JT does well at breaking down a game and then RC comes in to see what has happened and does well with the outcome of the game.

But i do have one problem now, and i think that the three of u, and anyone else may have an opinion on this, This very thing came up last year and i was unable to do a search on it to find out the final outcome of it.

But it was-- When a capper is doing quite well , do u fade him at one point?

As did some wanted to fade u Nolan last year when u had peaked at some point like 62% or 65%.

R/C- your logic based on the first half information in a game allows you to wager on the 2nd half. Ur reasoning is the law of averages - 1 or 2 teams shot really high %s so this "should not" continue, hence the play on the under.

Well now we have a situation with a capper, the RED HOT JT Sneaks, i think that u last posted that u are 99-62, or something like that, and well is was like 61% or close to that, point is i think and lot of people would agree that is a high % in a sportswagering. (Not that i have problem with that

) Personally i am riding ur wave till the end JT, but i know that this issue did bring up some great disicussion last year with Nolan.

Not that i want to jinx or anything like that , just want to know what these guys have to say about this and everyones take on this. That is all. Again everyone is doing a great job, night in and night out, Same to be said about Nolan, the last few weeks have been good in the NFL, i actually went with the same logic and increased my bet size, with the understanding that Nolan should be comming around closer to his average. (Not to put any pressure on ya Nolan-

One more thing-

Happy Holidays to ALL

 

[jiwos2m1]

that sounds to me like betting on the come or betting on the due. never a good idea. if we believed in the law of averages why would we gamble? law of averages would say we would only win half our games. that means we lose juice. i believe everbody here believes that we can beat that odd. that we can hit that 60% plateau and make money. look long term and make money not short term fade plays against a hot capper.

 

[gsp]

Padre, I don't believe you can fade any of the cappers you mentioned and be happy with the outcome. A bad week for them, would be 55 to 58%. I think long and hard before I go against them anytime. Good luck

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Padre:

I do remember the discussion from last year. I think I was right at 62 percent in the NBA, then hit a horrendous cold streak in the month of February. The theory capitalizes on the concept of MEAN REGRESSSION, that no prognosticator can continue to hit such a hot pace. So, you fade the picks at some point and make money.

The trouble with this idea is -- it assumes that the hot capper will suddenly start hitting less than 50 percent. Since you are fading the picks, you need the hot capper to produce less than 47.62 winners to earn a profit.

What would account for a hot capper (using JT Senaks or Randercity, as examples) to start losing? Would they become lazy with thier methods, get careless, or simply not put as much into the research? I think not.

Capping is not athleticism. It's not as though we put "everything" into one week, then have a letdown the following week (there may be exceptions to this, but they are not successful longtime cappers). If I see JT or RanderCity on game tonight, although I do not know them, I presume they have put the saem degree of thought and research into the game as the other plays that proved so successful.

I think it's fair to asssume a hot capper will fall back to earth at some point. But as the previous post stated, the "fallback" may be that he only picks 54 percent winners the next month. So, the 62 percent in Month 1 combined with the 54 percent in Month 2 comes out to a very respectable and attainable 58 percent overall.

The point is -- unless you uncover a flaw in the methodology which indicates the capper has just been "lucky," I think fading is not a wise idea. For every horrible month a decent capper has, he will have a couple of great months and several average ones.

Interesting discussion.

-- Nolan Dalla

 

[alienx]

What is the probability of the winning (or loosing) streak ending versus continuing. I think there was a nice thread about this on the home page of madjacksports, but I couldn't find it Jack must have taken off. As all streaks come to an end, it is more likely to stay alive then die on a given day. I wish I have saved that thread, it was very informative, as it went into stock market and etc.
Hard to figure when the hot streak will end when they are on it. It's like selling your microsoft when the stock price doubled it. Hope somebody puts up a link for that thread.

 

[Juice]

I think following a proven capper can be related to investing in the stock market. You know there will be ups & downs, but in the long run you will come out ahead. But, if you try to time the market, you will, more often that not, lose. So I think you should invest in a good Blue Chip (JT, Nolan, etc) and just ride it out, you are almost certain to get a good ROI.