June 9 Thirsty

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Still about 9666 seconds, plus or minus, until Thursday lines dawn but I have some inkling what I might do, depending on unknowns.
Other than stay thirsty, I mean.

7 ariz(Collmenter)@Pit(Karstens)
Large edge ariz SP though Karstens has been surprisingly decent (give it time), esp. at home in 5 GS.
Both pens reasonable, lately. Small edge Pit or even depending on Wed.
Medium edge ariz bats.
ariz 11-10 @R, Pit 7-11 home to R.
Wind out to center 7mph and good chance of storms on and off, apparently.
Series closer, with ariz off to Fla and Pit staying put for Mets.
Have ariz 58%.
My kingdom for something in the -110 range or better. Your kingdom for something decent on the 1st5.
Lean under but not with weather and my faith in Karstens does not become me.

7 chc(Wells)@Phil(Kendrick)
Small edge chc SP, normally, but he's had some trouble in 2 since DL.
Medium edge Phil BP.
Bats comparably stinky, lately, though that "normal" shit should again favour Phil, esp. w/the staying put while chc comin' in from Cinci.
chc 8-13 @R, Phil 11-9 home to R.
Wind out to far-right 9mph and chance of storms.
Phil 54%.
passola
Sounds like an over waiting to happen. Hope to see a 9 tops. chc a whpping 4 score and 7 outs to go, Wed, so you never know.


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7 atl(Jurrjens)@Flor(Volstad)
Large edge atl SP.
BP's comparable though atl has moved up the ranks lately while Flor a minor drop-off from early season dominance.
Bats comparable.
atl 9-11 @R, Flor 11-11 home to R.
Strong wind in from center and chance of storms.
Series closer with atl off to Hou and Flor awaiting d'backs.
atl 59%.
Gotta be cheaper than Hanson-Hand was...maybe -120 to -127.5? I dunno. Tempting--not a big fan of Volstad's work. Hard to be in love with either team's bats lately.
Under the 7'ish, maybe.

8 stl(Lynn)@Hou(Happ-L)
Medium edge Hou SP but who knows what to predict from Lynn is just his second go. Happ's been pretty good lately and good at home in 6.
Small+ edge stl BP and no complete games might be the safest bet.
Small edge stl bats as numbers vs L are coming down; they totally struggled with L last season.
stl 3-3 @L, Hou 5-14 home to R.
Wind out to center 12mph if open; weather supposed to be decent.
stl leaves after for big series @Mil, Hou awaits the braves.
Hou 52% but who knows what Lynn brings.
No clue on line, either.


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8 nym(Niese-L)@Mil(Gallardo)
Large edge Mil SP. Niese has been good lately but nothing special on road and putrid in 2 meetings vs Mil, no '11. Gallardo vg lately and 5-0 at home in 7.
Medium edge Mil BP.
Sticks comparable with Mil preferring R but I'm not sold.
nym 11-13 @R, Mil 5-1 home to L with first loss facing Capuano Tues--was the let-down game suspected, coming home after sweepage in Flor.
Wind in from left 13mph if open but decent chance of rain so likely not.
Mil stays put for cards while mets are off to Pittsburgh.
Mil 63%.
Price can't be much off Wed's so limited value unless I'm out to lunch which seems more likely than a mets sweep.
Under if I had to play it. Likely 8, max.
I think the ump will be Paul Emmel.

8:4 lad(Kershaw-L)@Col(Chacin, I think)
Medium edge lad SP. Chacin good vs in 7 GS incl. home vs Apr5th.
Small+ edge Col BP.
Bats a tough call. Both preferring L, by OPS, but Rox are stinky, lately, while lad is hitting quite well.
lad 9-13@R, Col 5-3 home to L.
Wind in from center 8mph. Minimal chance of rain.
Game 1 w/Rox coming home from SD while lad tours in from Phil.
Col 52%.
Can't touch that.
Prefer lad as dog or pass.
Under sounds resaonable depending on total, Wed action, ump and whatevas else might factor in.


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10 wash(Livan, apparently)@Sd(Harang)
SP's comparable. Livan somehow 0-5 at Petco in 8, other numbers @ nothing special. Harang 0-2 vs in 6, other numbers also nsp; he's been good last 4.
Small edge SD BP.
Medium edge wash bats.
wash 11-15 @R, SD 8-19 home to R...seriously.
Mild wind in from left.
SD stays put after finale with rox while wash makes short trip from SF.
Undecided. Totally a 50-50 call, here.

10 cin(Cueto)@Sf(Bumgarner-L)
SP's comparable. Bumgarner has smited early season troubles with 8 straight decent outtings; he's 0-3 at home with a .314 baa; he's allowed no homers over his last 9 starts; he was shit in only vs, home on Aug25 last year.
Small edge SF BP.
Huge edge cin bats esp. if you consider their OPS vs L of .876 compared to SF vs R at .674, though Cin gets to play half at Great American while SF sees theirs and other pitcher's parks, not to mention Bumgarner's ability to keep the ball in the park, a major factor in reds scoring abilities.
cin 2-4 @L (6-6 vs L overall), SF 10-9 home to R pre-Maya, of course.
Wind out to center 8mph I guess might help reds more.
SF staying put after nats while cin coming in from home after Dempster suprise.
cin 55%.
Tough call and might be close to even or cin small fave.
Under a thought but will be tiny number and wind blowing out doesn't help.


Two umps I will never play overs with--Hirschbeck and Eddings. I may have mentioned that from time to time. Frittered and wasted my lean on the chc-Cin total, fortunately.


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[EXTRAPOLATER]

Line, line, everywhere's a line
Blockin' out my bankroll and breakin' my spine
Bet this, don't bet that
Can't you read the line


4 tor(Romero-L)@Kc(Hochevar)
Large+ edge SP tor. Ricky's off a poor game but he is very good at bouncing back from same. Former 1st-overall mistake Hochevar has been crap past 3.
Medium edge tor BP.
Bats comparable for this situation.
tor 12-12 @R, KC 4-4 home to L.
Strong wind out to center and chance of storms.
tor takes off for home after to face RSox while KC takes off for Anaheim.
tor 60%(-133)+2
Maybe something.
Pass total 8.5. Would try tor ov4 but likely 4.5.

7 seat(Fister)@Det(Verlander)
Large edge Det SP. Fister crap in only @Comerica, way back in 2010.
Small edge seat BP.
Large edge Det bats esp. w/on fireness.
seat 8-9 @R, Det 11-9 home to R.
Wind out to right 11mph and slightly cool; slim chance for rain.
Det coming home from Tex while seat coming in from Chicago.
Det 67%(-200)zero
Total of 7 unappealing. Det's been scoring that on their own lately. Home from trip might be let-down though I hope that Ogando encourages them to try harder.

7 bost(Beckett)@Nyy(Sabathia-L)
Small edge bost SP. They faced off @Post-Ruth house May 14th with bost taking it 6-0.
Medium edge Nyy BP.
Small edge bost bats esp as both preferring L. Not sure wazzup with Texeira at moment...looks like he's in lineup Wed.
bost 3-4 @L (12-7 vs L overall), Nyy 11-9 home to R.
Wind out to right 12mph and chance of storms.
bost off to T.O. while Nyy stays for slumping injuns.
bost 51%(+110)+3
Need to witness Wed and see how brave I feel.
Total of 8 looks risky.
Think ump will be Wendelstedt.


one more pass to drop

 

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I don't really like The Band so didn't post it.
You're welcome.


8 tex(Holland-L)@Min(Blackburn)
SP's comparable, sorta. I had Holland rated pretty grim but then he twirls that CG ShO @Clev; he's been poor vs in 4 esp.@in2. Blackburn also a tough read but he's been decent.
Small edge tex BP.
Large edge tex bats.
tex 12-8 @R, Min 2-6 home to L (7-9 vs L overall).
Wind in from right 12mph.
Tex coming from home while Min fished up early in Clev.
tex 56%(-133)-2
Beats me.
Same w/total of 8.5.

8 oak(Cahill)@Cws(Buehrle-L)
Medium edge oak SP. Cahill nothing special in 2 vs this season and same in 3@US.Cell overall.
Small edge oak BP. Cws getting better in that department but that wasn't hard.
Medium edge Cws bats though oak preferring L; still, Cws the much hotter team with sticks.
oak 6-3@L (10-6 vs L overall), Cws 10-10 home to R.
Wind left-to-right 11mph and good chance of you-know-what.
Cws staying put after m's visit while oak comes in from Balt.
Undecided. 50-50.
Oddsmakes appear to agree (-105/-101).
Cahill mildly cold while Mark has been tolerable.
Not interest in total of 7.5.


GL


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