Just a note on UConn/Gonzaga

[Smitty]

noticed this the other day... uconn is 0-4 in games decided by less than 6 points this year. in fact, they only have 2 wins by less than 8 points. one was against... georgetown. the other was in the big east tournament against providence when they blew most of a 26-pt lead.

if this is close late in the game, could be a big edge to gonzaga.

i'm not advocating a wager on gonzaga. personally, i bet uconn -5.5 at +155.

but if you like gonzaga, play them on the ML.

i'm interested in how uconn is going to guard timme. hurley doesn't like playing zone. but timme against sanogo seems like a mismatch, and timme against karaban really seems like a mismatch. timme is so much quicker than either of them. maybe you just let timme get his 30 and try to stop everyone else. oh, and go at him on offense, trying to get him in foul trouble. that actually may be their best bet.

 

[ezpickin]

This line stinks... I think Zags figure out a way to get it done

 

[Smitty]

anything is possible. i think uconn is the last pick from any of the "experts" that are still standing, so they may be due to get knocked out. however, the lines are, obviously, driven by the computers. while i don't have access to the linesmakers' computers, the sagarin #s indicate uconn should be favored by a point. so the line has already been adjusted off of that.

but if it's close late in the game, and i can still bet the game live, i'll be looking to bet gonzaga. uconn just hasn't had to finish out a close game all year.

 

[ejthree]

noticed this the other day... uconn is 0-4 in games decided by less than 6 points this year. in fact, they only have 2 wins by less than 8 points. one was against... georgetown. the other was in the big east tournament against providence when they blew most of a 26-pt lead.

if this is close late in the game, could be a big edge to gonzaga.

i'm not advocating a wager on gonzaga. personally, i bet uconn -5.5 at +155.

but if you like gonzaga, play them on the ML.

i'm interested in how uconn is going to guard timme. hurley doesn't like playing zone. but timme against sanogo seems like a mismatch, and timme against karaban really seems like a mismatch. timme is so much quicker than either of them. maybe you just let timme get his 30 and try to stop everyone else. oh, and go at him on offense, trying to get him in foul trouble. that actually may be their best bet.

I'm leaning Zags here mainly experience and seems the whole world on UConn. Think Timme takes em on to final four...GL Smitty :0074

 

[ezpickin]

I'm leaning Zags here mainly experience and seems the whole world on UConn. Think Timme takes em on to final four...GL Smitty :0074

World? More like universe/galaxy! ​​​​​

 

[Smitty]

as a friend said to me last week... "sometimes, everyone is right."

 

[ezpickin]

as a friend said to me last week... "sometimes, everyone is right."

Hahaha! So true, or stated differently, sometimes when it looks too EZ, it still is!

 

[Smitty]

Hahaha! So true, or stated differently, sometimes when it looks too EZ, it still is!

the ladies have said that about me for years. :0008

 

[Real_Vision]

[dup post

 

[Real_Vision]

as a friend said to me last week... "sometimes, everyone is right."

This is interesting…
The heavy action on one side is something I STRONGLY factor into every play. The 76rs in nba are a great example. They’re one of the hardest teams to bet against in bball across the board this season, BUT as road dogs (dont quote me here) they’re something like 2-7. Getting blown out by phx as we speak (+4.5 pregame - in phx).

money was on philly, thats a spot to take your shot against them.

w/uconn, the weight of action hasn’t been a good tool to use this season. Its the narrative thats been the most useful tool… the “story of the entire season”.

dominated NC play, were ranked #2 or 3 going into big east play. They stumbled almost immediately, losing 5 of 7 at one point.

i’m 9-1 betting on uconn this yr, 2-1 betting against them. The point is the road to march success is very often blazing hot early, not so dominant in january conf play, then they re-emerge in feb-mar. They often dont win their conf tourney. Uconn fit the bill the whole way. There’s no reason to believe they’d struggle OOC because again, top 5 team before big east play. Minus losses to marquette, 2 to xav, a very close road loss @ creighton, this is a 29-4 team with a perfect non conf record.

the zags? 4 non conf losses, 7-5 vs top 50.

more importantly, ATS, zags like 11-18.

uconn 25-11
FAU 25-11
sometimes its that simple.


meanwhile, zags as road dogs - see image -11 pts away from spread.
4-8 neutral sites again negative pts from spread.

one of the best ATS teams this yr vs a team that cant get it done on the road, AFTER they just covered a road game.

It’d be weird if ppl weren’t on that side no?

i posted this yesterday, the number was begging for gonz money. On paper, i thought zags be favored. When they weren’t it made me even more confident to lay like 40x on ucon bets tonight