Just made the biggest wager I have ever made

[Marra]

On Kerry. Seriously. I have never felt so confident in my life. Nothing happened this week helped Bush at all. It hurt him. The debates hurt him. The economy is hurting him. The war is hurting him. Education is hurting him. NO president has ever won the election with an approval rating below 50. Bush is anywhere from 43-47 %. People dont' stand 4 hours in line for their health...most of them WANT CHANGE.

Voter turnout is going to be an all time high, which obviously helps the democrats. Kerry has done nothing wrong (other than the lesbian comment) to hurt his chances. He is a strong finisher. Electoral-vote.com has it 298-231 Kerry. AND I GOT +125 ON THIS? That is just because they would never make the incumbant the underdog...and the probability that most better are Repubs.

Farewell to the worst president this country has ever seen! :clap:

 

[Trossi3389]

Just made the biggest wager I have ever made

marra,ok i just cleaned out my basement bro.. i only got a 14" t.v down there with rabbit ears so u might want to bring 1.. also when u arrive we gotta board up the windows.. trust me THE MAN wont find u here.. even if there is a reward for your head..dont be :scared u can trust me.. :look:

 

[THE KOD]

marra,ok i just cleaned out my basement bro.. i only got a 14" t.v down there with rabbit ears so u might want to bring 1.. also when u arrive we gotta board up the windows.. trust me THE MAN wont find u here.. even if there is a reward for your head..dont be :scared u can trust me.. :look:

......................................................................

Tross


:142smilie :142smilie :142smilie

 

[Blitz]

Farewell to the worst president this country has ever seen! :clap:

That quote right there shows how clouded your view on this is... for your sake, and I sincerely mean this, I hope you didn't bet too much, I don't see Kerry winning...

 

[kosar]

marra,ok i just cleaned out my basement bro.. i only got a 14" t.v down there with rabbit ears so u might want to bring 1.. also when u arrive we gotta board up the windows.. trust me THE MAN wont find u here.. even if there is a reward for your head..dont be :scared u can trust me.. :look:

lol- funny...and you *still* have one of the funniest posts in MJ's history with your Vegas recap.

 

[pt1gard]

odds dropped to near even for kerry at OLY just now, +105, lowest in months ... I have followed it for 2 years, prob checked 200xs at least ...

gl, im with ya marra, but not my biggest bet ever
gregg

 

[Master Capper]

Marra,

While I wouldn't call Bush the worst President in history, I would venture to say that he is by far the worst President of my lifetime! I wish you luck on your wager and hope you hit it but I don't have the same great feeling about a Kerry win. All of the indicators that you listed are true but your still going to need Kerry to win Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida which is going to be a tough road for him to hit that trifecta. I seriously hope you hit your wager as I dont know if this country can take four more years of this bungling administration without riots in the streets as with four more years he will polarize this country to the point of no return.

 

[Marra]

He doesn't need a trifecta, although he is going to get it. He has a substantial lead in PA. Zogby and Gallup both have Kerry by 2% in Ohio. The two states I will be watching most closely are Colorado and Hawaii, both leaning red, but are right on the border. Hawaii is the biggest suprise as Gore beat Bush by 18% last time! Hawaii doesn't get the news or what? :cursin:

The only thing I am worried about are major thunderstorms in Ohio and the big Red Machine and Karl Rove stealing votes in Florida. If those have no effect, I am VERY confident. I am 80% confident Kerry will win, and I never felt this good about a sports bet...so why not bet it?

 

[Marra]

That quote right there shows how clouded your view on this is... for your sake, and I sincerely mean this, I hope you didn't bet too much, I don't see Kerry winning...

I definitely haven't WITENESSED a worse one, but from what I can gather about past presidents, Bush takes the cake for the worst.

 

[Master Capper]

Marra,

Just got a call from moveon organization asking me if I needed a ride tomorrow as they will have shuttles running from 6 in the morning until 9 at night, so I dont think weather will be a major factor here.

 

[gardenweasel]

i grabbed a little more kerry at +111 tonight......their probably the only wagers i can recall making in my life that i hope i lose......

kerry`s not the absolute worse choice the dems could have made...clark...the shrieker....they were guys i would have volunteered to work against....

bill richardson...i`d be o.k with him.......lieberman....o.k.........

kerry`s a phony....he wouldn`t know how to take a stand on something if his life(not his political life)depended on it... a very disingenuous guy...a social and political climber.... a male version of arianna huffington,who also wavers with the most advantageous breeze....

but he`s better than clark and the shrieker.....much worse than richardson,lieberman or say, evan bayh.....either of the 3 may have gotten my vote....

so,my fellow republicans,i`m not crazy about bush,to be honest....and kerry isn`t quite enough to sway me.....i`m voting for george......he `s not afraid to take a stand....


but,i`m afraid the young,minority,deceased and cartoon character voting blocks have registered in record numbers and it appears to be enough to swing the election....

i hope i`m wrong and lose the bets....sadly,i think i`ll collect.....hopefully before thanksgiving...

 

[Scott4USC]

Zogby has BUSH +6 in Ohio and TIE in FL.

That is NOT good news for your "biggest wager ever" on Kerry. Especially when YOU quoted OHIO and FL for Kerry based on zogby's poll.

This election might NOT be as close as everyone thinks. BUSH is getting MOMENTUM in the polls. I hope you were NOT duped by the polls over the weekend because REPUBLICANS do not fare well on weekend polls and that is a fact.

I am not saying this election is a lock for BUSH but I would NOT be surprised if BUSH wins big. Reagan vs Carter, the POLLS/MEDIA had Carter winning by 5pts and a CLOSE election. Remember that? Media is getting MAJOR ratings by predicting close election. It is easy to say in a poll your voting for Kerry, but will they go and vote and if they do, will they honestly vote Kerry? Remember, the Republicans got their act together this election vs last election on getting Republicans to vote. Very important and Republicans been working on this since 2002.

The major issue is war on terror, and BUSH has 10pt advantage on that issue.

LASTLY, there are a lot more ways for Bush to WIN than for Kerry. Bush can also seal the deal by getting both Ohio and FL and it looks like right now Bush has the MOMENTUM in both states!

POLLS

Zogby: FL: TIE | OH: Bush +6
Rasmussen: FL: Bush+3, OH: Bush+4
Quinnipiac: FL: Bush +8
FOX News: FL: Kerry +5, OH: Bush +3
SUSA: FL: Bush +1, OH: Bush +2
OH: Ohio Poll: Bush 50.1, Kerry 49.2
Strategic Vision (R) FL: Bush +4, OH: Bush +2

If BUSH takes Ohio and FL it is over for Kerry!

I also have heard Bush is leading Kerry in early voting in FL but that is not confirmed. Just something I heard.

BTW, CARTER was a HORRIBLE President!

 

[gardenweasel]

if bush loses florida,it`s over,usc.....i don`t think he`ll get ohio....not with the ruling that you can`t challenge voters in ,at least,some areas....that`s a license to steal....


i think that the polls are basically gobbledygoop...i really think the young vote,that historically doesn`t show up,will this year....along with the deceased and fictional characters...

as i said,unfortunately....

 

[Scott4USC]

These democrats especially the young people tell these polsters they will vote, but will they? I am betting they won't. You can def. count on the Republicans coming out to vote. In addition, unlike last year, this year the Republicans put MAJOR emphasis on getting their party out to vote. Last year they did not do this and almost lost. Then you must factor those who say they are voting Kerry, but then inside the voting booth, will vote for Bush BECAUSE of the war on terror. Just my opinion/prediction.

Like I said, polls trending to BUSH and I think the polls & media are BS and are against BUSH. Just my opinion.

Bush does not NEED Ohio to win this election. Kerry NEEDS Ohio to have a "chance" to win this election.

LASTLY, Why hasn't the "liberal media" talked about the early exit voting???? WHY???? I heard they are going BUSH way.


From Harris Polling:
Many voters have already voted
One of the several differences between this and previous elections is that
almost a quarter of all the votes will have been cast early, mostly by mail.
In 2000 we found that eight percent (8%) of voters cast their vote early.
Now we estimate that approximately 24 percent of all this year's votes have
already been cast. These voters have given an early 50 to 44 percent lead to
President Bush over Senator Kerry.


From CBS's poll:
Early voters split about evenly, one-third each between Democrats, Republicans and Independents. They are a bit older: one-quarter are 65 or over, and eight in ten are above age 45. President Bush holds a lead among them.

 

[Marra]

Scott you wen't from partially brain damaged to insane to downright delusional with that last post.

 

[Scott4USC]

Marra

We shall see! I also put a very large wager on this election but I am rooting for BUSH to win the election. I put over 30% of my winnings from my SOX bet on BUSH. If Kerry does win, I am still up big for the week. If BUSH wins tom. you have just lost your biggest bet ever. I would not be so confident in Bush. I also noticed the sportsbooks took HUGE line move in BUSH's favor. I think people are seeing what I am seeing.

 

[toastonastick]

You could of got +140 at my book right now

 

[Master Capper]

[
B]From Harris Polling:
Many voters have already voted
One of the several differences between this and previous elections is that
almost a quarter of all the votes will have been cast early, mostly by mail.
In 2000 we found that eight percent (8%) of voters cast their vote early.
Now we estimate that approximately 24 percent of all this year's votes have
already been cast. These voters have given an early 50 to 44 percent lead to
President Bush over Senator Kerry.


From CBS's poll:
Early voters split about evenly, one-third each between Democrats, Republicans and Independents. They are a bit older: one-quarter are 65 or over, and eight in ten are above age 45. President Bush holds a lead among them.[/B][/QUOTE]



Scott,

These polls are worthless if they are not for the battleground states

 

[Nosigar]

Pinnacle with republican president back to -150 (was -127 yesterday)

Bush to take Florida: -164

adlock:

 

[Master Capper]

What was Pinnacle's odds on the Red Soxs beating the Yankees?