Just pick winner Idea

[djv]

Well we just kicked the chit out of the just pick the SU winner this last week so lets have some fun. Hey the more that put ther picks here the more we mayget out of this. I understand the idea is pick the SU winner and you have achance aoround 80% vs ATS.
Here are my SU picks for the week.
Minn
Wash
St Lou
GBay
Indy
NYG
Pitt
Atl
Denv
S DG
Jack
Oak
Phily
NYJ
Ok now what part of that 80% is correct. Now then after we got that straight. What part of the 80% I have right will cover ATS. Dam its easy ant it. There are No short cuts.
Guys im willing to learn and have stones throwen at me so have at it. Im guessing I will have at least 4 SU winners wrong. I guessing best I do ATS is 7&7 or 8&6.

9/5 SU & 9/5 ATS


[This message has been edited by djv (edited 10-01-2001).]

[This message has been edited by djv (edited 10-02-2001).]

 

[Hooks]

djv-here's my selections,i'm not playing every game.

Washington
Miami
Indianapolis
Atlanta
Denver
Jacksonville
Oakland
Philadelphia



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let element-x be with us

 

[Hooks]

adding:

Giants
Jets

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let element-x be with us

 

[djv]

Hey wheres the guys that say getting this 80% stuff is way to go. Lets get those picks up here. We got try it to see how good we are.

 

[buddy]

MY NFL plays:

1/ MINN

2/ kansas city

3/ miami

4/ CAROLINA

5/ NEW ENGLAND

6/ GIANTS

7/ pittsburgh

8/ atlanta

9/ DENVER

10/ cincinnatti

11/ JAXONVILLE

12/ OAKLAND

13/ PHILADELPHIA

14/ san francisco

[This message has been edited by buddy (edited 09-27-2001).]

 

[djv]

Buddy we want you to just pick the SU winner use no points spread. Pick all games if you have a idea who wins SU.

 

[djv]

Starting to look like there maybe something here. Well its just one week. But with just NYJ game togo. I see my SU to win is 9 & 4 and its ATS 9 & 4. Who was the person that said pick S U, and you get ATS 80%. Was not me. But I will try this another week. It would have been more fun if a few others then just three of us had tryed it.

 

[buddy]

I agree, djv

need others to join in.

 

[dr. freeze]

anything can happen in one week....it is around 80% long term....be careful

 

[BIGHEAD]

If this is any consolation:

MNF: Jets

This next week I will put my $0.02 in.

 

[rrc]

Over the past 10 years or so if the spread is 9 1/2 or LESS, the straight up winner covers about 83% of the time.

 

[dr. freeze]

yep -- about 83 percent....higher spread, the percentage goes down.

You guys gotta realize that your success rate is gonna be your winning percentage multipied times this 83% for these games. And since there are so many unpredictable things going on, that winning percentage may take a dip sooner rather than later. I would prefer to take the games I look for a strong cover and only be concerned with that.....

 

[djv]

I for one would not tell anyone to place picks based on this info. As I said above first some how you need to pick 80% SU. Once you did that you have to hope they all cover or your 80% is shot. However we are about trying things here and still like to have some fun. Just picking SU winners with out spread seems easy. But I believe we will see long run it is not. Yes this week so far I have done well. Next week just as easy I could have a 7&7 result. But in many case Forsure if you are going to play a small under dog. You have to believe they can win SU or you should not place that bet. Will you as this week.Get burned by the big under dogs winning. Yup and so will about 75% of us. Indy and Jack was just about everyones can't miss play this week. Did anyone when taking the dogs in these game think N Eng and Cleve would win SU. Be honest not more then 5% or 10%, did. A play Vs the spread sure.

 

[4bubba]

djv
I am sure you noticed in the "Match Up" forum that NE beat the Colts (in NE) the last 5 years in a row. Half of the loses of your original list were divisional games (Colts and Jax, plus some people had TB), one was a conference game, and then there is picking WASH.
Of course this is hindsight betting, but it seems that divisional games have the highest probability for upset.
One trend that seems to follow is in a conference game, when 1 team has beaten another in the last year, they feel confident they can do it again (and cover).
I had noticed this in playoff games especially.
I will try to get more data on this.
If anyone else has the info, please post.

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indecision is the KEY to flexibility

 

[djv]

4Bubba some very good points.

 

[hawk3675]

on su pks i`ll take all favs except gb game this game is the strongest play i have sen this year

 

[djv]

Hawk we started a new one for this week. Week of Oct 7th games. See other post.