Kansas/Colorado

[BigNick]

I'm opening up this topic so we can get some insight from those that have closer connections to the Jayhawks or Buff than myself.

I've been following both teams pretty closely and have made some good money working the angles with both. Though I must admit, Kansas has been easy simply lay that chalkkkk:fit01:

I've been looking at this game all week and felt I had it capped right...soup to nuts. Now I'm asking myself...DO I? Since this is my big play of the week..any insight would be appreciated.

Here's my breakdown.

Kansas (-4) @ Colorado. Based on my number Kansas should be a 14-17 point favorite. I assume that the difference is based solely on Colorado's win over Oklahoma at home. I do think Colorado plays well at home, but I would counter the home field advantage with the desire fro the jayhawks to make a run in a weaker division and stay unbeaten. I expect a strong rush attack to setup the pass and Reesing should outgun Hawkins. Plus, I anticipate at least 1-2 freshman throws from Hawkins that Kansas is able to pick-off.

Kansas has the edge in Offense.
-------------------------------------------
Kansas Rush - 218.8 yds
Colorado Rush - 143.7 yds

Kansas Pass - 297 yds
Colorado Pass - 240.4 yds

Kansas has the edge in D
----------------------------------
Kansas Rush - 80 yds
Colorado Rush - 122.4 yds

Kansas Pass - 160yds
Colorado Pass - 240.4 yds

Kansas has the edge with turnovers
Kansas - 1.5
Colorado - 2.6

Kansas has TOP edge
Kansas - 30.1 min
Colorado - 28.1 min

Kansas - Games to date
Date vs. Score Line O/U Tot Rus Pas
10/13/07 BAY W 58-10 W -26 O 57.5 245 188 57
10/06/07 @KANST W 30-24 W 3.5 U 54.5 74 117 -43
09/22/07 FLINT W 55-3 W -35 O 54 360 102 258
09/15/07 TOL W 45-13 W -27 U 65.5 306 58 248
09/08/07 SOLOU W 62-0 - - - - 426 252 174
09/01/07 CMICH W 52-7 W -7.5 O 51 244 116 128

Colorado - Games to date
Date vs. Score Line O/U Tot Rus Pas
10/13/07 @KANST L 20-47 L 4 O 49 -53 -62 9
10/06/07 @BAY W 43-23 W -8 O 48 -15 102 -117
09/29/07 OKLA W 27-24 W 23 U 55 151 43 108
09/22/07 MIAOH W 42-0 W -13.5 U 49 495 315 180
09/15/07 FSU L 6-16 L 4.5 U 47 58 -122 180
09/08/07 @ARZST L 14-33 L 15.5 U 53 -203 -99 -104
09/01/07 COLST W 31-28 x W -2.5 O 45.5 -56 -28 -28

Plus here are some trends that I'm looking at...trying not to ignore the trends that would say go with Colorado, but there are few

Colorado
# Colorado are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 conference games

# Buffaloes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.

# Buffaloes are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

# Buffaloes are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in October.

# Buffaloes are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 conference games.

# Buffaloes are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.

Kansas
Jayhawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in October:dance1:

Jayhawks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.

Jayhawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.

Jayhawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.

:scared:# Jayhawks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.

:scared:# Jayhawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.

:scared: # Jayhawks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite.

 

[BigNick]

Have to assume that the kids are going to psyched up to play on national TV...:Kid1:

Kansas University's football game at Colorado next week is slated for a 4:45 p.m. (CST) kickoff and will be televised nationally by ESPN.

The Jayhawks (6-0 overall, 2-0 Big 12 Conference play) will be playing on cable giant ESPN for the first time since the Fort Worth Bowl in 2005, when they beat Houston, 42-13. Last year, Kansas lost to Toledo on ESPN2.

Colorado (4-3, 2-1) lost to Kansas State, 47-20, on Saturday, propelling Kansas to the top of the Big 12 North race. KU is the only undefeated team remaining in the conference.

Television possibilities for KU's game at Texas A&M on Oct. 27 are expected to be announced Monday."

LJWorld.com

 

[hawkeye]

Hearing 6-7 key starters for CU have had the flu all weeK?

 

[gjn23]

i'll say this and pretty much guarantee that this is correct

if you're numbers show that kansas should be a 14-17 point favorite AT col then your numbers are seriously flawed.

a simple viewpoint....oklahoma was a 21 point fav AT col.....but you think kansas should be 14-17 fav????

no way.

now, kansas may win and cover (they may even win by 17+) but if the line was col +17; would ANYBODY bet kansas???????

 

[Ravenous]

Let me preface this by saying I'm a life-long Jayhawk fan. Use caution when betting on the Jayhawks, especially laying points on the road.

As far as the trends go, how far back do you have to go to get seven games where the Jayhawks were road favorites? It doesn't seem all that common. They have been a dismal road team in recent years.

The Jayhawks have not won at Folsom Field since their overrated 1995 team won there (but we did take them to overtime in 2003). Further, the Jayhawks haven't won two conference road games in a single season since 1996.

But this Kansas team is different from the others. Late last year they developed a bit of a swagger. They've maintained it all year.

I love the Jayhawks, but I am on the sidelines (cheering, though) this week. In my view they simply have not been sufficiently tested to take any substantial risks on them.

GL with whatever you decide to do.

 

[BigNick]

gjn23...obviously I didn't mean that I saw Kansas as a 14 -17 point road favorite. When I cap I look at a straight comparison first and foremast. Then I take into account the other factors, home team, injuries, weather, EMO, trend, etc. Based on a straight up assessment, Kansas should win by two scores (14). Now that doesn't mean I would take them as -14 pt favorites. I feel that they should be a solid favorite at -7 to -10. The Oklahoma line doens't mean anything. 10 games and Oklahoma not only wins, but covers 9x out of 10.

Ravenous - Good feedback, much appreciated. I agree that they haven't been tested. But liked the team last year and felt they couldn't close. I feel last year's team now has the experience to close a season with...as you say...Swagger.

Going to make this a solid (not Huge) play for me. 3-4 units.

 

[jw7777]

Also, have to remember this is the first game outside the state of KS for JHawks. Think new QB has brought calm and consistancy they haven't had lately. I think KU wins but by less than a TD.

 

[Dr. Fade]

Not sure why this game is going to be your "big" play of the week when you claim that you are not sure which side you're on? Take KU. They have covered every game. Ride w/streaks. OU lost @ CU - that's college fball, but KU has serious talent. Not OU talent, but they have much more talent than the books/public thinks. That's why they have DESTROYED every spread/every game thus far. There is a perception about KU fball and its well deserved. The notion that they haven't played a game "outside the state of KS" is only valid in regards to only playing 1 road game. Who cares if the one road game was in-state that is actually their most difficult road game any year. They also haven't won @ K-State since 89' before 2 weeks ago. I think they will be ready today. The Trend is Your Friend, my friend! :bigun:

 

[BigNick]

Dr. Fade...I agree with your thoughts.

This is my big play and I am clearly on one side. Just thought I would put it out for opinion. I like the feedback and usually it helps me find anything I may have overlooked.

Feel I have a good handle on this game.

Kansas wins by at least 10.:00x1 :11jackson

 

[BigNick]

See turnovers playing a huge part in this game.:s5:

BC-AFN;KANSAS-COLORADO


=== Perfect Jayhawks tangle with Buffs in Boulder ===

Boulder, CO (Sports Network) - For just the second time this season, the
15th-ranked Kansas Jayhawks hit the road, as they travel to Boulder to
take on the Colorado Buffaloes in Big 12 play at Folsom Stadium.

At a perfect 6-0, the Jayhawks are one of six remaining unbeaten teams at the
FBS level, as they are off to their best start since opening the 1995
season 7-0. Dating back to last season, Kansas has won nine of its last 10
games and that includes a convincing 58-10 triumph over Baylor last weekend.
With that win, the Jayhawks improved to 2-0 in league play, marking their
best start since posting the same record in 1997. Kansas, already bowl
eligible for the third straight year, now heads away from home, having
posted a 30-24 victory at Kansas State in its lone road game this season.

As for Colorado, it played at Kansas State last weekend, but it was on the
short end of a 47-20 setback. The loss brought the team's three-game win
streak to a close and dropped it to 4-3 overall and 2-1 in the Big 12. The
Buffaloes however, now return home, where they have gone 3-1 this season
and that includes a 27-24 upset of nationally-ranked Oklahoma on
September 29th.

Colorado leads the all-time series with Kansas, 41-22-3, but the Jayhawks
snapped a five-game losing streak to the Buffaloes with a 20-15 victory in
Lawrence last season.

The Jayhawks surprisingly, possess one of the top offensive units in the
nation, as they rank second in scoring (50.3 ppg) and seventh in total yards
(515.8 ypg). The team is well balanced between the run (218.8 ypg) and pass
(297.0 ypg), and it has committed just nine turnovers in six games. Last
weekend, Kansas rolled up 447 yards of total offense, including 236 on the
ground, in a route of Baylor. Jake Sharp paced the ground attack with 110
yards and a score on 18 carries, while Brandon McAnderson added 53 yards and
touchdown on 10 totes. The duo has done a good job for the Jayhawks this
season, as they have combined for 959 yards and 12 touchdowns. Quarterback
Todd Reesing also turned in a solid performance last weekend, completing 14-
of-31 throws for 186 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The versatile gunslinger
has done a good job avoiding mistakes (four interceptions) this season and he
also thrown for 1,652 yards and 16 touchdowns. He is even dangerous outside of
the pocket, rushing for 131 yards and a touchdown. Marcus Henry has been a big
play target for Reesing, as he leads the team with 471 receiving yards for the
year.

The Jayhawks' defense has been every bit as good as the offense this season,
ranking second in the nation in scoring defense (9.5 ppg) and fourth in total
defense (240.0 ypg). The unit has been almost impossible to run against,
surrendering just 80.0 ypg and tow touchdowns on the ground. The team has also
had success against the passing, picking off 12 throws and allowing just four
touchdowns through the air. Last weekend, Kansas put forth another tremendous
effort on defense, as it limited Baylor to just 202 total yards, including
only 48 on the ground. The defense also came up with a few big plays, forcing
five turnovers, with four coming on interceptions. Joe Mortensen logged eight
tackles in the game, and he currently leads the team with 55 stops and 11.5
TFLs.

The Buffaloes aren't anywhere near as explosive as Kansas is, but they have
done a decent job averaging 26.1 ppg and 384.1 total ypg. The offense however,
has trouble avoiding mistakes and it has already turned the ball over 18
has trouble avoiding mistakes and it has already turned the ball over 18
times. Last weekend, Colorado racked up 411 yards of total offense, but
committed four turnovers in a 47-20 loss to Kansas State. Hugh Charles though,
was a bright spot for the Buffaloes, as he rushed for a career-high 171 yards
and a touchdown on 22 carries. It was a great effort from Charles, who has
missed some time this season, but still leads the team with 522 rushing yards
behind a 6.1 yard per carry average. Quarterback Cody Hawkins however, didn't
fare as well last weekend, completing only 19-of-41 pass attempts for 223
yards, with three interceptions and just one touchdown. Hawkins, a redshirt
freshman, has struggled with consistency this season, as he has thrown 12
freshman, has struggled with consistency this season, as he has thrown 12
interceptions compared to 11 touchdowns. His favorite target is clearly Scotty
McKnight, who leads the club with 31 catches and 374 receiving yards. He
pulled down six balls for 63 yards in a losing cause last weekend.

On the defensive side of things, Colorado has done a solid job in holding its
foes to 330.1 total ypg, although the 24.4 ppg it is allowing could use some
improvement. Creating turnovers is another area that could stand some
improvement, as the Buffaloes have forced just 10 thus far. Last weekend,
Colorado didn't generate a single turnover while allowing Kansas State to rack
up 463 yards of total offense. The team gave up 249 of those yards on the
ground and that was a big surprise considering the Buffaloes are allowing
only 122.3 ypg on the ground this season. Jordon Dizon paced the defense in
defeat with nine tackles and he leads the Big 12 with 97 stops for the season.



10/17 10:56:06 ET


back

 

[Ravenous]

3-0 at halftime. Jayhawks have avoided the big mistakes, but have not made the big play offensively. See why I'm nervous about laying points on the road with them?

 

[BigNick]

Second half pick...I like the way KU is getting after the ball. I'm thinking the continue to play hard and pressure Hawkins... I think we see the Colordao D start to let up a little...and the Jayhawks D continue to get after Hawkins...

Also like the second half under -24

 

[BigNick]

0-8 on onside kicks since 1999....:com:

 

[BigNick]

:bigun: :bigun:

The Buffs played tight there at the end...but Kansas played strong this second half....that last TD had me nervous, but a cover is a cover....


:bigun: :bigun: :bigun:

Lets fire those guns baby


:Kid1: :Kid1: :Kid1: :Kid1:

 

[Ravenous]

AWesome. If I said I knew they had it in hand the whole time would anyone call me on it?

 

[Dr. Fade]

Beep, beep, beep. "Just back it up here boys" KU/MU 13-0 ATS. KU in control all game. It was apparent who the better team was. Jump on board folks :SIB