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dogface

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Here are some SUperbowl trends, whatever you find place it here! This will be the educated trends line...let's see em. I'll start:

ATS and Money Line Trends

Favorites in the Super Bowl are 25-10 SU and own an ATS mark of 19-13-3
Double digit favorites are 9-3 SU and 7-4-1 ATS
The SU winner is 29-3-3 ATS in the 35 previous Super Bowls, so if you?re taking the dog, you may as well take the money line
The NFC holds a 20-15 SU and 17-15-3 ATS edge all time, but is 0-4-2 ATS in the last six games
The team that is the higher seed is just 1-3-2 ATS in the last six Super Bowl games
The team with the better record going in to the game is 24-9 SU (note: three times the teams had identical won-loss marks)

Halftime Trends
The team that wins the game SU owns a 25-10 ATS first half mark
The team that wins the game ATS owns a 27-5-3 ATS mark in the first half
The first half favorite is 19-16 ATS in the 35 previous Super Bowls
52.3% of the total points are scored in the second half of the games

Over / Under Trends
As noted earlier, there have been 45.3 total ppg scored in the Super Bowl
In nine domed Super Bowl games, the total points scored per game is 49.9
7 of the last 10 games have gone OVER
The highest scoring quarter is the second quarter, 448 points (12.8 ppg)
The lowest scoring total is the first quarter, 317 points (9.1 ppg)

Teaser Trends
The underdog owns just a 19-15-1 ATS Teaser mark in previous Super Bowls
The favorite is 26-9 ATS in Teaser plays

Thanks to Statfox for the trends!


dogface
 

dogface

Registered STUD
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Feb 13, 2000
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Minnesota
More forgot to add on...

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Proposition Wager Analysis

There are hundreds of proposition wagers available to a bettor on Super Bowl Sunday, ranging from statistical matchups to winning point margin to the coin toss. The odds can be very enticing for many of these, but keep in mind that the longer the odds, the less chance that it will happen. Still, it?s fun to try and predict these features of the game. Here are some thoughts on a few typical proposition options:

First player to score a TD: A well known favorite to proposition bettors. The last six players to earn this title include Stokley, Holt (a rookie at the time), Griffith, Freeman, Rison, and Novacek. You won?t find any of these names on either the Super Bowl MVP list, or among the league?s all time touchdown leaders, so make sure the odds are worth it.

Team to score first and win/lose: In 25 of the 35 previous Super Bowls, the team that scores first has won the game. This would mandate at least 2.5-1 odds if you were to choose the opposite.

Coin toss: The odds say take ?Heads?, or maybe ?Tails?. Either way, you have a 50-50 chance of winning. Despite the lack of control or predictability, this wager remains among the most popular.


Statistical Performance Trends

Execution plays a pivotal role in any football game, and is even more critical in the Super Bowl. Teams that control the line of scrimmage, pass the ball efficiently, and limit their mistakes almost always come out on top. Those familiar with StatFox.com know that these factors figure prominently in our computerized game projections. Rushing yards, passing yards per attempt, turnovers, and time of possession are four key statistical categories that often decide who wins, both SU & ATS. The following trends will demonstrate the importance of these statistics:

Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 28-7 SU & 26-6-3 ATS

Teams that average more passing yards per attempt are 31-4 SU & 26-6-3 ATS

In the 35 previous Super Bowls, the team that has more turnovers has won just twice SU and four times ATS. In fact, the last time it happened, in SB XIV, Pittsburgh used a Super Bowl record 14.71 yards per pass attempt to offset a 3-1 TO disadvantage in defeating the Rams 31-19

Teams that win the time of possession battle are 26-9 SU & 26-6-3 ATS

Teams that hold an edge in at least three of these four key statistical categories are 30-1 SU & 27-3-1 ATS

Teams that win all four categories are 20-0 SU & 19-0-1 ATS

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