Keith Jardine vs Thiago Silva fight breakdown

Mcnasty

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the more i look at this matchup the more i like it.... silva's ufc run is not that impressive if you watch each fight in order and break them down...

1st fight vs james irvin.... irvin lands a nice right and leg kicks his ass to the floor...irvin makes the mistake of going to the ground with silva. if irvin keeps it standing i think he KO's him.... instead silva is able to scramble and get to his feet then take down irvin with irvin's knee blowing out.... silva wins

2nd fight vs thomasz drwal.... drwal wins the first round standing war even thou he gasses 3 min into the fight lol the 2nd round is shockingly close til the end with a gassed drwal, silva's conditionin exposed as well, but he puts together a highlight reel combination leading to a KO in the final seconds on a basically lifeless thomasz drwal

3rd fight vs houston alexander... houston gives silva the fight with a dumb gameplan, his strategy should have been at all costs keep it on the feet and keep seperation and land bombs. He lands a few good body shots has silva runnin around avoiding trading punches, and decides its a good idea to take him down which he picks up and dumps him rather easily, but alexanders ground game was weak and silva is able to scramble, gain side control, and immediately to the mount. good night alexander

4th fight vs antonio mendes...mendes comes out and lands a head kick right at the start sending silva to the canvas, 30 seconds later mendes lands a body kick sending silva back to the canvas yet again. mendes scores a punch or two, then decides he wants to try to get silva to the ground??? slips while attempting a judo throw and silva gets mount immediately. good night mendes

5th fight vs llyoto machida... silva never had a chance to win this fight. what have we learned about silva? he has only left the first round once, and he gassed in the 2nd. he has been beat in the stand up game by each of his opponents in previous fights, minus the 2nd round of the drwal fight, but again drwal could have been mistaken for a motionless punching bag at that point. kicks were scoring and damaging him in his previous fight. and his wins are coming from his ground game, yet he really doesn't have a strong take down game. when the fights hit the ground its because his opponent felt that was the smart move and they took it there, then he pwned them all there. So a good conditioned, strong striker, with good takedown defense will massacre silva everytime. welcome machida. he lands a body kick or two. successfully sweeps and scores a takedown. gets up off and back to his feet (which is smart, why mess with the only danger that silva possess). lands a big hook and drops silva, controls silva for a short while then smartly back to his feet again. drops him again with a right. then in the closing seconds silva attempts a weak ass takedown and machida tosses him like a doll the mat and capitalizes with a brutal KO

Keith Jardine will def look to keep this standing as he usually does in his fights. He has great kicks. He has proven to have excellent conditioning. And his takedown defense is very good as well. And in the event he is taken down he will not be there long. This is the recipe to put a beat down on silva.....needless to say I have picked Keith Jardine at -150 to beat silva. Im gonna say by unanimous decision but could def see jardine ending it in the 3rd via tko if silva gasses like i predict he will.

Let me know what you guys think!! Im gonna start posting my plays regularly on the different threads... Lets get that money :toast:
 

layinwood

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Mcnasty, nice write up on the fight. The only reason I'm not on Jardine is because you never know which chin of his will show up. He took some big time blast vs Chuck but then he crumbled vs Wandy. He seems very hit and miss. IMO he wins this thing by decision by keeping his distance much like he did vs Chuck.
 

Mcnasty

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also going with marquardt... i think his BJJ defense and take down defense is good enough to keep it on the feet where he has a big advantage.... Maia's conditioning is also a lil suspect... think this ends in tko late 2nd early 3rd
 

gardenweasel

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i like silva because i thought +170 was a little too much wood to give vs an up and down fighter who`s capable of getting blown out vs physical strikers....

you can skew a write-up to fit a pre-formed opinion("houston gives silva the fight with a dumb gameplan") with practically any fight......the guy`s 13-1 and has shown extreme resiliency vs all opponents except vs the one truly exceptional opponent(who just happens to probably be a top 3 or 4 pfp guy)....i`d counter with the fact that a guy that loses to bonnar and gets blown out by alexander and an over-the-hill wandy can certainly lose to a young,hungry guy with the ability to end a fight suddenly like silva....

the odds have come back down to earth,so i can see taking jardine if you like him.......his chimpanzee style,even though horribly technically incorrect,does give guys that choose to "fence " with him trouble.....

my thinking is that silva(if he`s smart),will want to close distance and use his muay thai or take jardine down and use his jiu jitsu.....he can`t stand outside and dick around with jardine and let jardine fight a nice leisurely fight like rampage did,making it much more difficult........

tough call...i just happened to like the +170 odds that the fight opened at....

just a contrary opinion(you`ll se lots of that on this forum and it`s all done respectfully)....

g.l., and welcome aboard...:thumb:

btw,i also like marquardt a bit...
 
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Coach_K

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I like Jardines W-L-W-L- streak to continue, think he gets TKO late in the second.

Good luck with your play
 

kickserv

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Sometimes it is good to be alone.........remember when I was the only one on Mir against Nog and everybody made fun of me.

GW may be telling us all "I told ya so" kurby
 

gardenweasel

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Sometimes it is good to be alone.........remember when I was the only one on Mir against Nog and everybody made fun of me.

GW may be telling us all "I told ya so" kurby

or frankie edgar vs sherk....;)

btw...i just read that nog had a severe staph infection in the lead up to the mir bout...of course that doesn`t explain his prior poor performances...
 
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WhatsHisNuts

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weasel alone in the woods on the brazilian.....:s2:

I hit Silva at +165 and I love the bet. The guy's only defeat is to the best 205lb fighter on the planet. Jardine is a great brawler and I like him a lot, but I love the odds here. I really think the fight is a toss up, so getting better than +120 seems like a steal.

I like Marquardt as well.
 

ukgaz

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Like Jardine but won't be betting this. Silva may win first round but KJ will take the last 2
 
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