Derby 128, horse by horse plus and minus
By Ed McNamara
Special to ESPN.com
Harlan's Holiday
Positives: Has done nothing wrong, and his running style and pedigree suggest he'll have no trouble with 1 1/4 miles. Could be value at 7-2 or better in a race where the wise guys might out-think themselves trying to find longshots. Being born in Ohio will help his price.
Negatives: Speed figures aren't terrific, and the best horse he's ever beaten is one-dimensional speedster Booklet.
Came Home
Positives: Has run only one bad race, in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and had excuses (bad post, speed duel, illness-induced layoff). California's best hope is 6-for-7 with high cruising speed and grit. Worked brilliantly at Churchill.
Negatives: Is he a freak or a brilliant sprinter/miler being asked to go too far? If the Derby were a mile and a sixteenth, he'd be 3-5, but his pedigree says 1 1/4 miles are too far.
Essence of Dubai
Positives: Won at 1 1/4 miles in Dubai, making him the first horse since Venezuela's Canonero II, the 1971 Derby winner, to come into America's Race with a victory at 10 furlongs. Solid 2-year-old campaign in U.S. before spending winter in the Middle East. Ratable and closes well.
Negatives: Although he's 3-for-3 running fresh, no horse since Needles in 1956 has won the Derby off a six-week layoff.
Medaglia d'Oro
Positives: Never worse than second and ran a gutsy race when second to Buddha in the Wood. Trainer Bobby Frankel is a demon who instantly transformed him from maiden-breaking sprinter to stakes-winner.
Negatives: Light on experience, and no horse since 1918 has won the Derby in its fifth career start. Head-to-head duel for final 7 furlongs in the Wood could have been too much too soon.
Buddha
Positives: Major talent who may turn into the best 3-year-old by the end of the year. He's 3-for-3 this spring, and his Wood was a tremendous effort in only his fourth lifetime start. Strong stamina bloodlines, and has a good chance if the Wood didn't take too much out of him.
Negatives: Like Medaglia d'Oro, whom he edged in the Wood, is inexperienced and a prime bounce candidate.
Saarland
Positives: Best distance pedigree in the field, and minor throat surgery has cleared up a breathing problem that hindered him in the Wood Memorial. Good chance to slip into the superfecta because he's likely to pass many tired horses late.
Negatives: Operation may have helped his wind but won't give him a turn of foot. Plodder may find trouble in a crowded field because he can't accelerate quickly. May be mid-priced underlay for win, but may offer value in place and show pools.
Johannesburg
Positives: 6-for-7 record ties Came Home's for best in the field, and he's won on dirt in America.
Negatives: He's never been around two turns, has had only one prep race (7 furlongs on grass) and his pedigree is slanted more toward speed than distance. Would be better off in the English 2,000 Guineas at a mile May 4. If you didn't score with him in the Juvenile, he's not worth playing.
Blue Burner
Positives: Big, good-looking chestnut is bred to stay, which gives him an edge over many. Regressed a bit when a non-threatening fifth in the Wood, but might move forward if he likes Churchill.
Negatives: Still hasn't run a big one against top competition. Looks like a poor man's Saarland.
Private Emblem
Positives: Versatile colt won 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby easily despite outside post, finishing well to get clear by 4 1/2 lengths. Distance doesn't appear to be a problem, and he likes wet tracks. Improving, and may be a longshot with chance to hit the board.
Negatives: Class lines are weak, and he beat nothing of significance at Oaklawn. Derby will be his first big-league test.
Perfect Drift
Positives: Never been out of the exacta in six starts. Has tactical speed, can come home well and won the 1 1/8-mile Spiral at Turfway.
Negatives: Narrowly beat Azillion in Spiral, and that colt was up the track in the Blue Grass. Still hasn't met top competition, and coupled with his six-week layoff, he's hard to take seriously.
Winward Passage
Positives: Showed good tactical speed to take Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn before running a distant third in the Arkansas Derby. Bloodlines (by Captain Bodgit out of a Miswaki mare) say he should handle 1 1/4 miles better than most of his rivals. Broke his maiden in November at Churchill.
Negatives: Takes on top company for the first time.
Request for Parole
Positives: Nine in-the-money finishes in 10 starts, including two seconds to Harlan's Holiday and one behind Repent.
Negatives: Those three races were last year, and trainer Steve Margolis kept him at Turfway Park over the winter to duck the big boys. Seems up against it, especially with the dreaded six-week layoff.
Proud Citizen
Positives: Front-running victory on off going in the Lexington earned him and trainer D. Wayne Lukas a trip to the Derby. Likes it wet and has speed.
Negatives: Pedigree seems unsuited to longer distances, but disregarding Lukas at big odds in big races has been a mistake many times. Could he be another Charismatic? Don't think so. For Lukas freaks.
War Emblem
Positives: Stole the Illinois Derby on an unchallenged lead at speed-favoring Sportsman's Park, after which Prince Ahmed Salman bought him so that trainer Bob Baffert would have a Derby runner for the seventh consecutive year.
Negatives: Won't get an easy lead and will pack it in after a mile or so.
Sunday Break
Positives: Should get a lot out of his close-up third in the Wood Memorial, his stakes debut, when Gary Stevens didn't punish him in deep stretch.
Negatives: Pedigree is iffy beyond 1 1/8 miles. If 20 other horses enter, he won't have enough graded-stakes earnings to get into the race. If 2000 Derby winner Neil Drysdale didn't train him, almost no one would care.
Castle Gandolfo
Positives: Won his dirt debut April 6 over the all-weather surface at Lingfield in England. Was a strong turf runner last year in Europe, winning a Group III and placing in two Group I's. May be better suited for dirt than Johannesburg, his famous stablemate.
Negatives: Odds are stacked against him and Johannesburg in Coolmore's first Derby experiment. Trainer Aidan O'Brien is a genius, but his rich owners are taking a wild stab at glory.
Easy Grades
Positives: Made a strong move in the stretch but couldn't sustain it and ran second to Came Home in slowly run Santa Anita Derby.
Negatives: 0-for-4 on dirt, with his only victory at a mile on grass. Pedigree says yes to classic distances but may not be good enough to handle top company on the main track.
U S S Tinosa
Positives: Steady sort had been off the board only once in 10 starts before running fifth in the Santa Anita Derby, where he had a bad start and traffic trouble. Won a minor stakes easily at 1 1/8 miles before finishing second to Medaglia d'Oro in Grade II San Felipe.
Negatives: The other Ohio-bred in the field is 0-for-3 in graded stakes. Is a cut below top class but monstrous price may tempt some to use him in exotics.
Wild Horses
Positives: Continued on well to be a distant second at long odds in Arkansas Derby, where he had traffic trouble and Rene Douglas lost his whip. Rated fairly well that day, which should help down the road.
Negatives: Class lines are weak, and his best chance to stay in the mix for a while would be if the track turns up wet. He's in over his head.
Lusty Latin
Positives: Made up a lot of ground late to be third in the Santa Anita Derby, partly because the horses he was chasing, Came Home and Easy Grades, weren't moving very quickly.
Negatives: 2-for-11 lifetime and low speed numbers. Should be coming from way out of it and might slip into the superfecta if the pace is hot and half the field is walking at the eighth pole.
Crimson Hero
Positives: Got up late to be a non-threatening second in the Lexington. Would give two-time Derby winner Nick Zito a horse in the race.
Negatives: 1-for-5 lifetime, no figs, doesn't belong with the heavies.
Ocean Sound
Positives: Former European was a respectable third at a big price in the Blue Grass and second in the mile Rebel.
Negatives: He's 0-for-3 on dirt after going 1-for-9 on grass in Great Britain and Ireland. Doesn't fit in a classic.
Red Masque
Positives: Won a grass stakes at Keeneland; three wins, three seconds in six career races.
Negatives: Looks like a promising turfer, but Derby Fever has struck his connections. Don't bother.
It'sallinthechase
Positives: At least he's sound, because he's already made 14 starts.
Negatives: Has lost six of his last seven, including all five races this year. No-hoper is winless beyond a mile and should stay in the barn. Connections appear to have a particularly virulent form of Derby Fever.
Mayakovski
Positives: World-class front-runner will fry the other speeds and could set the fastest quarter-mile and half-mile fractions in Derby history.
Negatives: Is he in as a pacesetter for Johannesburg, also owned by Michael Tabor? Seems like a waste of a potentially great sprinter/miler. Won't stay 1 1/4 miles and wasn't pointed for the Derby, which means he'll be up the track.
Straight Gin
Positives: Will get two-time Derby winner Nick Zito, a good guy and a favorite in Kentucky, into the race.
Negatives: Has been nowhere in both graded-stakes tries. Still eligible for a non-winners-of-1 allowance, which is where he'll get his next win.
