Lets start a thread to list everybodys top selection for the Kentucky Derby. Try and Include reasoning why you think your selection is the best if possible.
Kentucky Derby Selection Thread
- Thread starter verbalkint
- Start date
I've been trying to keep myself out of trouble tonight as tomorrow morning we're heading to the links for 18 holes, and then it's off to the track for some horses and several fine John Labatt products. So, that said, I've been doing my handicapping tonight, and while looking at the form, I've been tossing around a few ideas here tonight to anyone who will listen, but here is my ultimate selection:
#14 READ THE FOOTNOTES - I still think Tapit is probably the horse to beat, but I think this is where the value lies. There hasn't been a horse win the Derby off this long of a layoff since Needles in I believe 1957, but there was never a New York bred to win the Derby until last year with Funny Cide (RTF could make it two in a row). He has worked well in Florida leading up to this race, and I just can't get that Fountain of Youth race out of my mind, in which he posted a 113 Beyer in beating a very talented Second of June. I will throw the Florida Derby out, as he was in the perfect spot to "bounce" after his previous monster effort.
He should be able to work out a nice stalking trip under Robby Albarado, and if he returns to anywhere near his previous best speed figure, he will give this field all they can handle.
Good Luck Guys!
Sharky
#14 READ THE FOOTNOTES - I still think Tapit is probably the horse to beat, but I think this is where the value lies. There hasn't been a horse win the Derby off this long of a layoff since Needles in I believe 1957, but there was never a New York bred to win the Derby until last year with Funny Cide (RTF could make it two in a row). He has worked well in Florida leading up to this race, and I just can't get that Fountain of Youth race out of my mind, in which he posted a 113 Beyer in beating a very talented Second of June. I will throw the Florida Derby out, as he was in the perfect spot to "bounce" after his previous monster effort.
He should be able to work out a nice stalking trip under Robby Albarado, and if he returns to anywhere near his previous best speed figure, he will give this field all they can handle.
Good Luck Guys!
Sharky
#14 READ THE FOOTNOTES - unknown breeding, good trainer good jockey, neither has ever won derby before. has won off a layoff and at a distance before and a graded stake winner all strong positives. The best speed # in the race and very long odds. excellent value, worth a look.
Good thread verbalkint!
I think Albarado is one of the sports up and coming stars, and it is interesting to note that with the defection of Baffert's Wimbledon, Nick Zito is the only trainer in the race to have won the Derby before.
I think Albarado is one of the sports up and coming stars, and it is interesting to note that with the defection of Baffert's Wimbledon, Nick Zito is the only trainer in the race to have won the Derby before.
#3 Lion Heart
#3 Lion Heart
Posted the reasons in my Derby Pick thread, simply think the pace of the race will set up in his favor.
#3 Lion Heart
Posted the reasons in my Derby Pick thread, simply think the pace of the race will set up in his favor.
Have seen the last 40 or so derbies so nothing would surprise. Some theories say go with jockies, trainers, speed, class, trip, Dosage, breeding, systems or pure luck. No matter it is going to be difficult to find this years Funny Cide.
As mentioned earlier in my posts I will use Master David and Tapit as my main picks top and bottom with a few longshots. Again I think the Wood was a stronger race than the speed figures show and if Tapit is the hot money horse than you have to like Master David who he just nipped at the wire. Also Master David will be closer to midpack or better and will have less traffic to negotiate.
If it is wet as predicted I am now leaning towards Friends Lake as my best longshot. I am concerned about the layoff, however there are some things I like about this horse. A) Will get the distance AP Indy - Spend A Buck bred. B) Should close from mid pack much like Master David C) Superior off track breeding and according to observers has looked very smooth on the wet CD surface in workouts.
If it is wet as predicted I am now leaning towards Friends Lake as my best longshot. I am concerned about the layoff, however there are some things I like about this horse. A) Will get the distance AP Indy - Spend A Buck bred. B) Should close from mid pack much like Master David C) Superior off track breeding and according to observers has looked very smooth on the wet CD surface in workouts.
track condition is the one overriding factor, it will effect both the style and performance of every horse. Until the condition of the track for the race is known it is impossible to make an informed selection. As soon as any info is known on the track condition or the weather report please post it.
Raining very hard, definitely will be some moisture on the track at race time. The irish horse moves way up on an off track. Simple logic in Ireland it rains all the time.
Okay, everyone start laughing. Here are my picks:
$1 tri key:
11 (Cliffs Edge), 13 (Birdstone), 16 (Castledale), 18 (Tapit) with
3 (Lion Hart), 6 (Friends Lake), 11, 13, 15 (Smarty Jones), 16, 18 with
3, 6, 11, 13, 15, 16, and 18.
$120.00 guaranteed to return at least $0.
Eddie
$1 tri key:
11 (Cliffs Edge), 13 (Birdstone), 16 (Castledale), 18 (Tapit) with
3 (Lion Hart), 6 (Friends Lake), 11, 13, 15 (Smarty Jones), 16, 18 with
3, 6, 11, 13, 15, 16, and 18.
$120.00 guaranteed to return at least $0.
Eddie
Imperialism at 15-1
.....good mudder on what will most likely be a muddy track and ridden by a two time Derby winner. Has good bloodlines as well.
.....good mudder on what will most likely be a muddy track and ridden by a two time Derby winner. Has good bloodlines as well.
#7 --minister eric to win, place
#7-#3 exacta straight and boxed
#7-#18 exacta straight and boxed
#7-#3 exacta straight and boxed
#7-#18 exacta straight and boxed
Took my shot as well. A buddy of mine and I have been betting one big trifecta on Derby Day since 1998. We haven't won a single frickin' one, although we have had horses run 1-2-4 twice, and in 1998 had the top three, including Real Quiet at 8-1 but only wheeled Victory Gallop into the third spot so he bit us in the ass when he took second over Indian Charlie.
$1 trifecta, $120 total
Master David-Smarty Jones-Cliff's Edge-Tapit WITH same 4 plus Lion Heart and Castledale WITH same 6 plus Imperialism and Friend's Lake
8, 11, 15, 18 W/ 3, 8, 11, 15, 16, 18 W/ 3, 6, 8, 10, 11, 15, 16, 18
Good luck guys
$1 trifecta, $120 total
Master David-Smarty Jones-Cliff's Edge-Tapit WITH same 4 plus Lion Heart and Castledale WITH same 6 plus Imperialism and Friend's Lake
8, 11, 15, 18 W/ 3, 8, 11, 15, 16, 18 W/ 3, 6, 8, 10, 11, 15, 16, 18
Good luck guys
Who knows but...
Who knows but...
I am playing these three for the Exacta:
#18 Tapit. As I explained earlier in another post, this is the horse that I think is growing and maturing the most.
#12 Borrego. Only bad races were his first green effort at Santa Anita where he was steadied early and the Generous (G3) at Hollywood where he was simply poorly raced by jock Valdivia. Last four races on dirt have all been rather impressive efforts with notably the strong push at end in Arkansas Derby to almost catch Smarty Jones.
#15 Smarty Jones. What else can I say except he is 6 for 6 and is the only horse in the field to run excdeptional beyers throughout.
Box those three in my humble opinion.
Who knows but...
I am playing these three for the Exacta:
#18 Tapit. As I explained earlier in another post, this is the horse that I think is growing and maturing the most.
#12 Borrego. Only bad races were his first green effort at Santa Anita where he was steadied early and the Generous (G3) at Hollywood where he was simply poorly raced by jock Valdivia. Last four races on dirt have all been rather impressive efforts with notably the strong push at end in Arkansas Derby to almost catch Smarty Jones.
#15 Smarty Jones. What else can I say except he is 6 for 6 and is the only horse in the field to run excdeptional beyers throughout.
Box those three in my humble opinion.
okay its definitely a sloppy track. So look at horses that should like wet not mud . usually speed and slop breeding. which means Lionheart out of storm cat obvious choice. and the cliffs edge by mr prospector, and castledale [ire] bred where sloppy all the time. pollard vision won huge on slop in saratoga and is by mr prospertor.
the play key 3,11,16,17 with 3,11,16,17,6,7,8,12,15 in exactas.
4 x $8 tickets = $32 total wagered . 32 $1 exactas.
the play key 3,11,16,17 with 3,11,16,17,6,7,8,12,15 in exactas.
4 x $8 tickets = $32 total wagered . 32 $1 exactas.
Congrads bjfinste! :spotting:
$2 Trifecta (15-3-10) Paid $987.60
Are you buying a round of Mint Juleps?
$2 Trifecta (15-3-10) Paid $987.60
Are you buying a round of Mint Juleps?