The "murky" 128th running. I have a futures bet on Pool 1: "The Field." The event was wide-open then, and it's wide-open now.
"Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it."
I believe that was Winston Churchill.
This race could mark the year that some old trends fall. In some way each runner is at a historical disposition; it's almost inevitable that a long-standing Derby "law" will get the axe. Logic dictates no less when looking over the past-performances of these 3 year-olds.
I thought you should be forewarned....
History is not on our side here.
For my first two, I excuse the "trend bucking" to the modern-thoroughbred regimen. A road that is becoming less less traveled. Perfect Drift has not had a prep since the Spiral Stakes. Medaglia D'Oro has only raced 4 times. In time, these particular paths to the Derby may become commonplace.
The time could be now.
Preferred horses, with my own morning line:
1. Perfect Drift (8/1)
2. Medaglia D' Oro (8/1)
3. Essence of Dubai (11/1)
The post-position hurt Perfect Drift a bit (there are 17 horses to his outside; getting boxed-in is a possibility). Fortunately, he has a Derby-tested jockey who was on board for a masterful, perfectly-timed move in the Spiral (which was run in 1:48 and 4; the final time in the Wood was 1:48 and 3). His running-style should make the draw a non-issue, and his kick can close the deal in deep stretch. The longshot choice.
Medaglia D'Oro COULD have been as high as 8 or 9/1. But the injury to Buddha will compromise his post-time value. He has a big job ahead. He will almost certainly have to rate to win this, which means a change in tactics. He has shown a lot of game in the stretch after falling back, and in earlier races he rated just off the leader; two good signs.
Essence of Dubai made the list by default, when the field became Buddha-less. But this could be the year one of these Dubai runners slips through the cracks. Most of us have now made a practice out of automatically dismissing desert invaders after years of watching them finish up-the-track. This one has the distance under his belt, and boasts an off-the-pace running style, a logical fit. His timeform ratings in Dubai are good enough; a step forward would put him right there. Giving him a chance at a price.
It's hard to predict the post-time odds of Medaglia D' Oro, but I am assuming it will be 6/1 at the very highest with Buddha gone. For price's sake, these are my plays:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Main play:
Win bets on both Perfect Drift and Essence of Dubai.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Exacta:
Perfect Drift, Essence of Dubai
with
Medaglia D'Oro
Saarland
Private Emblem
Easy Grades
Request for Parole
Castle G
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Good Luck and have fun.
SLEW
"Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it."
I believe that was Winston Churchill.
This race could mark the year that some old trends fall. In some way each runner is at a historical disposition; it's almost inevitable that a long-standing Derby "law" will get the axe. Logic dictates no less when looking over the past-performances of these 3 year-olds.
I thought you should be forewarned....
History is not on our side here.
For my first two, I excuse the "trend bucking" to the modern-thoroughbred regimen. A road that is becoming less less traveled. Perfect Drift has not had a prep since the Spiral Stakes. Medaglia D'Oro has only raced 4 times. In time, these particular paths to the Derby may become commonplace.
The time could be now.
Preferred horses, with my own morning line:
1. Perfect Drift (8/1)
2. Medaglia D' Oro (8/1)
3. Essence of Dubai (11/1)
The post-position hurt Perfect Drift a bit (there are 17 horses to his outside; getting boxed-in is a possibility). Fortunately, he has a Derby-tested jockey who was on board for a masterful, perfectly-timed move in the Spiral (which was run in 1:48 and 4; the final time in the Wood was 1:48 and 3). His running-style should make the draw a non-issue, and his kick can close the deal in deep stretch. The longshot choice.
Medaglia D'Oro COULD have been as high as 8 or 9/1. But the injury to Buddha will compromise his post-time value. He has a big job ahead. He will almost certainly have to rate to win this, which means a change in tactics. He has shown a lot of game in the stretch after falling back, and in earlier races he rated just off the leader; two good signs.
Essence of Dubai made the list by default, when the field became Buddha-less. But this could be the year one of these Dubai runners slips through the cracks. Most of us have now made a practice out of automatically dismissing desert invaders after years of watching them finish up-the-track. This one has the distance under his belt, and boasts an off-the-pace running style, a logical fit. His timeform ratings in Dubai are good enough; a step forward would put him right there. Giving him a chance at a price.
It's hard to predict the post-time odds of Medaglia D' Oro, but I am assuming it will be 6/1 at the very highest with Buddha gone. For price's sake, these are my plays:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Main play:
Win bets on both Perfect Drift and Essence of Dubai.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Exacta:
Perfect Drift, Essence of Dubai
with
Medaglia D'Oro
Saarland
Private Emblem
Easy Grades
Request for Parole
Castle G
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Good Luck and have fun.
SLEW