KENTUCKY DERBY SERVICE THREAD
- Thread starter GIANTS007
- Start date
ATS Triple Crown Package
Gayego to win and place
play gayego with these for exacta's, tri's and super's
Court Vision
Big Brown
Colonel John
Smooth Air
Gayego to win and place
play gayego with these for exacta's, tri's and super's
Court Vision
Big Brown
Colonel John
Smooth Air
TEDDYJUNE
derby picks
Pyro accross the board
exacta and trifectas
Pyro
Colonel John
Monba
Tale of Ekati
derby picks
Pyro accross the board
exacta and trifectas
Pyro
Colonel John
Monba
Tale of Ekati
BIG AL
On Saturday, our selection is on Pyro, and our recommendation is to wager on Pyro to win, place and show.
It's hard to remember a more wide-open Kentucky Derby field in recent memory than this 134th running. The favorite is a lightly-raced colt by the name of Big Brown (reportedly named for the nationwide delivery service UPS), who drew an impossible far outside post (otherwise known as the "20 hole"). And the best 2 year-old from 2007, a colt named War Pass, had to withdraw when a small fracture in his leg was recently discovered. When War Pass was racing last year, and beating every other two year-old in the country rather easily en route to his two year-old horse-of-the-year title, there was one horse who was always clearly second-best and that horse was Pyro. When it came time to race in 2008 as three year-olds, War Pass and Pyro went their separate ways, and Pyro did not have to face his nemesis in any of his three tune-ups for the Derby. Prior to his injury, War Pass went into training in South Florda, while Pryo's connections sent him to the Fair Grounds race track in New Orleans. In the Big Easy, Pyro won his first two starts of 2008 with amazing ease, coming from far off the pace in both efforts to win comfortably with his regular rider, Shaun Bridgmohan aboard. Then Pyro suffered a disappointment in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland Race Track in Kentucky. But the Blue Grass is run on an artificial surface, and it just may have been that Pyro didn't care much for it. If he had won the Blue Grass the way he did his other two starts of 2008, then he probably would have been no worse than the co-favorite in the Derby with odds somewhere in the 3-1 range. But because of that last, unimpressive effort on the Polytrack, Pyro has been installed as no better than the third choice at 6-1. Trainer Steve Asmussen (who has another, much less accomplished horse in the Derby) drew a perfect position of #9 and Pyro has been training superbly for this race. I wouldn't be surprised if Pyro floats up to 7-1 or 8-1 by post time, as he seems to be somewhat the forgotten horse in here. But even if the odds tick down slightly from 6-1, I still love the value. Asmussen has had an amazing last 12 months with 2007's horse of the year, Curlin, having crushed all the best older horses in the world, winning the world's richest race in Dubai back in March, and it just may be that Asmussen has a few more bullets in his chamber for the first Saturday in May. Bet on Pyro 'across the board' to win, place and show. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
On Saturday, our selection is on Pyro, and our recommendation is to wager on Pyro to win, place and show.
It's hard to remember a more wide-open Kentucky Derby field in recent memory than this 134th running. The favorite is a lightly-raced colt by the name of Big Brown (reportedly named for the nationwide delivery service UPS), who drew an impossible far outside post (otherwise known as the "20 hole"). And the best 2 year-old from 2007, a colt named War Pass, had to withdraw when a small fracture in his leg was recently discovered. When War Pass was racing last year, and beating every other two year-old in the country rather easily en route to his two year-old horse-of-the-year title, there was one horse who was always clearly second-best and that horse was Pyro. When it came time to race in 2008 as three year-olds, War Pass and Pyro went their separate ways, and Pyro did not have to face his nemesis in any of his three tune-ups for the Derby. Prior to his injury, War Pass went into training in South Florda, while Pryo's connections sent him to the Fair Grounds race track in New Orleans. In the Big Easy, Pyro won his first two starts of 2008 with amazing ease, coming from far off the pace in both efforts to win comfortably with his regular rider, Shaun Bridgmohan aboard. Then Pyro suffered a disappointment in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland Race Track in Kentucky. But the Blue Grass is run on an artificial surface, and it just may have been that Pyro didn't care much for it. If he had won the Blue Grass the way he did his other two starts of 2008, then he probably would have been no worse than the co-favorite in the Derby with odds somewhere in the 3-1 range. But because of that last, unimpressive effort on the Polytrack, Pyro has been installed as no better than the third choice at 6-1. Trainer Steve Asmussen (who has another, much less accomplished horse in the Derby) drew a perfect position of #9 and Pyro has been training superbly for this race. I wouldn't be surprised if Pyro floats up to 7-1 or 8-1 by post time, as he seems to be somewhat the forgotten horse in here. But even if the odds tick down slightly from 6-1, I still love the value. Asmussen has had an amazing last 12 months with 2007's horse of the year, Curlin, having crushed all the best older horses in the world, winning the world's richest race in Dubai back in March, and it just may be that Asmussen has a few more bullets in his chamber for the first Saturday in May. Bet on Pyro 'across the board' to win, place and show. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
Winner's Choice
Churchill Downs
Race 10:
Top 3 Picks: 20-9-19
Class: 12-20-5
Speed: 20-9-13
Pace: 2-20-17
Churchill Downs
Race 10:
Top 3 Picks: 20-9-19
Class: 12-20-5
Speed: 20-9-13
Pace: 2-20-17
The Scratch Sheet
Churchill Downs
Race 10:
Top 3 Picks: 20-12-18
Top Speed: 8-20-9
Top Class: 20-12-5
Churchill Downs
Race 10:
Top 3 Picks: 20-12-18
Top Speed: 8-20-9
Top Class: 20-12-5
The Professor
Kentucky Derby-G1
20-Big Brown 4-1 - Won by daylight in all 3 career starts earning best Beyer & Sheet figure in this field. Must overcome FAR OUTSIDE post and a history of foot problems. Trainer Richard Dutrow is extremely confident of his chances. Logical favorite but may be overbet at probable 2-1 odds.
9-Pyro 5-1 - Am willing to overlook his poor performance on the Keeneland "follytrack". Won his only race at Churchill Downs and can handle a wet surface. May rebound at his 6-1 morning line odds.
4-Court Vision 12-1 - Strong closer will be flying late with a clean trip
5-Eight Belles 12-1 - Unbridled's Song filly is undefeated in 4 starts this year. Her Beyer & Sheet figs indicate she fits with the boys. May surprise at her 20-1 ML odds.
10 Colonel John 12-1 - Improving Tiznow colt is untested on a dirt surface. His blistering 5 furlong work at Churchill Downs earlier this week may indicate he can handle it. Capable with minor improvement.
8-Visionaire 15-1 - His best race was his Gotham-G3 win on a sloppy track. May get the same surface if the expected thunderstorms materialize. Contender from mid-pack.
16-Denis of Cork 15-1 - Disappointed in the Illinois Derby-G2 after winning his first 3 races. Late runner may rebound at long odds with a clean trip.
Wagering Strategy
$1 Trifecta wheel: 9-20 / 4-5-9-10-20 / 4-5-8-9-10-16-20 = $40
$1 Superfecta wheel: 9 / 20 / 4-5-8-10-16 / 4-5-8-10-16 = $20
Kentucky Derby-G1
20-Big Brown 4-1 - Won by daylight in all 3 career starts earning best Beyer & Sheet figure in this field. Must overcome FAR OUTSIDE post and a history of foot problems. Trainer Richard Dutrow is extremely confident of his chances. Logical favorite but may be overbet at probable 2-1 odds.
9-Pyro 5-1 - Am willing to overlook his poor performance on the Keeneland "follytrack". Won his only race at Churchill Downs and can handle a wet surface. May rebound at his 6-1 morning line odds.
4-Court Vision 12-1 - Strong closer will be flying late with a clean trip
5-Eight Belles 12-1 - Unbridled's Song filly is undefeated in 4 starts this year. Her Beyer & Sheet figs indicate she fits with the boys. May surprise at her 20-1 ML odds.
10 Colonel John 12-1 - Improving Tiznow colt is untested on a dirt surface. His blistering 5 furlong work at Churchill Downs earlier this week may indicate he can handle it. Capable with minor improvement.
8-Visionaire 15-1 - His best race was his Gotham-G3 win on a sloppy track. May get the same surface if the expected thunderstorms materialize. Contender from mid-pack.
16-Denis of Cork 15-1 - Disappointed in the Illinois Derby-G2 after winning his first 3 races. Late runner may rebound at long odds with a clean trip.
Wagering Strategy
$1 Trifecta wheel: 9-20 / 4-5-9-10-20 / 4-5-8-9-10-16-20 = $40
$1 Superfecta wheel: 9 / 20 / 4-5-8-10-16 / 4-5-8-10-16 = $20
Jody Mac's Espn 950 Radio Plays
Win #9 Pyro
Place #10 Colonel John
Show #6 Z Fortune
4th #8 Visionaire
5th #16 Dennis A Cork
Win #9 Pyro
Place #10 Colonel John
Show #6 Z Fortune
4th #8 Visionaire
5th #16 Dennis A Cork
Wizard's Major Stakes for Saturday, May 3rd, 2008
Churchill Downs Race 10 - 134th Running of the Kentucky Derby
Churchill Downs Race 10 - 134th Running of the Kentucky Derby 1 1/4m Grade I 3yo, Purse: $2,000,000. Post Time: ET
Race Synopsis
The Kentucky Derby, then and now. Handicapping thoroughbred races has always been a complex process. Now, with the emergence of synthetic tracks the last few years, that task has become increasingly more difficult, if not down right impossible as these ?fake? surfaces have wreaked havoc with handicapping. Case in point is the recently concluded Keeneland meet, where favorites took it on the chin, winning at a rate that is far below the national average. While it is true that no dirt tracks are alike, each synthetic surface has its own nuance as well. Perhaps even more so, these artificial tracks are supposedly comprised of relatively the same materials. Even if a thoroughbred possesses the so-called ?proper breeding? necessary to handle this new wave type of surface, there is no guarantee that they will ultimately find it to their liking, as it has been stated that they change constantly due to weather, racing, and even track maintenance. While I am all for safety in racing for all concerned, bettors have voiced their discontent as to the complexities of handicapping those tracks who have made the change to synthetic.
As a result, handicapping has become more difficult at these venues, and the Kentucky Derby has been impacted as well. Handicappers must ascertain whether those horses that lack traditional dirt form, will be able to produce their ?A? race at Churchill Downs. Also, some of the trainers who once dominated the Kentucky Derby have fallen by the wayside. In recent years, D. Wayne Lukas and Bob Baffert, who were a conspicuous presence in the Run for the Roses, and could be counted upon to have a legitimate contender or two, have been absent of late. And, while trainer Nick Zito will be represented this year, he is not the major force he once was. I suppose it is great to have an infusion of new blood, but it seems these changes are all happening at once. Undoubtedly, there has been a changing of the guard, as every year there seems to be a different trainer, a relative newcomer to the Triple Crown trail, who journeys to Louisville seeking fame and glory at Churchill Downs, and ultimately comes away with his or her name etched in the annals of racing history.
Life, as we all know, is full of changes. We all do our very best to adapt to these new challenges whether they be in our daily lives, or even something, as inconsequential at times, as isolating the winner of a horserace. Selecting the Kentucky Derby winner, which has always been demanding, seems to be more troublesome these days. This year, several major contenders are unproven over a conventional dirt surface, let alone Churchill Downs. In years past, horses were eliminated based upon their Dosage Index, which indicated their ability, or lack thereof of getting the 1 1/4 mile Derby distance. Also, runners which failed to be within 10 lbs. of the top horse on the Experimental Free Handicap were cast aside due to lack of accomplishment as a two-year-old. Number of starts, days away, and even the finish position from a horse?s last prep race, have been angles used by handicappers at one time or another to pare a bulky Derby field down to a palatable number of contenders.
While I may have gone off on a tangent, what I am trying to say is that it is extremely difficult these days to eliminate any horse from consideration in the Kentucky Derby based solely upon a predetermined set of rules. The Kentucky Derby may just be the most difficult race in the world to handicap, in addition to being the most recognized. While everyone wants to brag about picking the Derby winner, I am thrilled whenever I show a profit in the race. Despite the fact that most everyone believes that handicapping the winner is the path to profitability in thoroughbred racing, the key that unlocks the door is diligently betting what you have handicapped. Keeping that thought in mind, good luck in this year?s Kentucky Derby!
The Field from the rail out
# Name ML
1 COOL COAL MAN 20/1
2 TALE OF EKATI 15/1
3 ANAK NAKAL 30/1
4 COURT VISION 20/1
5 EIGHT BELLES 15/1
6 Z FORTUNE 15/1
7 BIG TRUCK 50/1
8 VISIONAIRE 20/1
9 PYRO 6/1
10 COLONEL JOHN 4/1
11 Z HUMOR 30/1
12 SMOOTH AIR 20/1
13 BOB BLACK JACK 20/1
14 MONBA 15/1
15 ADRIANO 30/1
16 DENIS OF CORK 20/1
17 COWBOY CAL 20/1
18 RECAPTURETHEGLORY 20/1
19 GAYEGO 15/1
20 BIG BROWN 3/1
First Selection: (20) BIG BROWN (Dutrow Richard E/Desormeaux K J)
It was closing day at Saratoga when Big Brown made his debut going two turns on grass. Racing without lasix and ice cold in the betting at 14-1, it was unlikely that he would win. When the gates opened, Big Brown zipped to the lead and never looked back, scoring a scintillating eleven length victory. I was mesmerized by his performance. Big Brown moved effortlessly with giant strides. I said to myself that he was going to win the Breeders? Cup Juvenile Turf, to be run for the first time at Monmouth Park in late October. It never occurred to me that Big Brown?s bright future could also be on dirt and as the favorite to win this year?s Kentucky Derby.
IEAH Stables purchased a majority interest in Big Brown from owner Paul Pompa Jr. after his maiden win and gave him to trainer Richard Dutrow Jr. Dutrow is the son of Richard Dutrow Sr. who was one of the most successful trainers on the Maryland circuit. When he passed away in 1999, he had won 3,665 races, placing him 13th in all time in victories. Big Brown was pointed for Juvenile Turf, but during a workout on grass at Aqueduct before the race, Big Brown developed a foot infection. It was discovered shortly after that he had a quarter crack. Quarter cracks are vertical cracks in the hairline or coronary band of the horses hoof. They can be large or small and they can make a horse lame. Big Brown was given time to recover. Later in the year he was shipped down to Palm Meadows training center in south Florida to begin training again. He soon developed another quarter crack in the opposite foot and had to be put on the sidelines once again. It wasn?t until early February that his foot problems were behind him and he could go back to serious training. Big Browns workouts were strong. When he easily outworked an older stakes winner named Diamond Stripes, Dutrow knew he had a potential star in his barn (Diamond Stripes has since come back to win the $1 million dollar Godolphin Mile on Dubai World Cup Day).
On March 5, Big Brown finally returned to Gulfstream Park. The race was scheduled for the grass, but wet weather forced it to be switched to the dirt track. Despite not being a 100 % fit, Big Brown demolished the field winning by twelve lengths. Even Dutrow was shocked by the performance. He told reporters ?we did get very lucky for it to come off the grass. If it hadn?t, we might have not run in the Florida Derby!? Twenty four days later Big Brown entered the gate as the heavy favorite for one of the ?key? Kentucky Derby prep races. Big Brown had a tough task having to overcome an outside post in a field of twelve. Following is my Stakes write up on Big Brown when I selected him to win the Florida Derby.
All I have read this week is that any horse breaking from post 12 at 1 1/8 miles at Gulfstream is unlikely to win. History in this race has confirmed this. The Wizard feels differently. They said that about top grass miler Lure when he won the BC mile from post 12. I can go on and on about the critics knocking horses because of false myths. Racing has changed in the US. Horses are not bred the same as in the past. I like to go the other way when others take the path of least resistance. That is why I like Big Brown to win the Florida Derby. I could be wrong, but so can trainer Richard Dutrow who has elected to stay in Florida to saddle this 3 year old, instead of flying to Dubai and enjoying the luxuries only we can imagine and dream off. That tells me that it is more important to him to win this 1 million dollar race instead of the cool 2 million he can earn with Benny The Bull winning the sprint. (I know for a fact that Dutrow has no problem flying around the place when big money is on the line). I am not concerned one bit about the outside post, because there is a lack of early speed in the race. Rider Desormeaux can shoot to the lead or stalk without losing much ground around the first turn. He has worked brilliantly for this race. I love Dutrow in big game situations. I may be wrong, but if I am, chalk one up for the majority.
Big Brown shot to the lead and never looked back, winning by five lengths. Big Brown's final time of 1:48.16 was just 0.37 of a second off Brass Hat's 1 1/8-mile track record, and nearly a full second faster than 2006 Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro's final clocking for his Florida Derby victory earlier that spring. It was also the fastest Florida Derby since Unbridled's Song's victory in 1996.
Since the Florida Derby, Big Brown has not missed a beat. Not only do I think Big Brown is the best horse in the Kentucky Derby, but I also have a special rooting interest in him. Having grown up in New York City and spending many years going to Aqueduct, Belmont and Saratoga, I have become friendly with many trainers, especially when I became a professional handicapper in the mid eighties. I first met Richard Dutrow in the mid nineties and we have been friendly since. I have closely watched his progression from strictly a claiming trainer to one who has built one of the strongest operations in the world. In 2005 Dutrow won two Breeders? Cup races on the same day capped off with a victory by Saint Liam in the $4 million dollar Breeders? Cup Classic. He has won such prestigious Grade 1 races as the Metropolitan Mile, The Carter, Coaching Club American Oaks, De Francis Dash and The Frank Kilroe Mile. Last year Dutrow won the Breeders? Cup Mile with Kip Deville who also was plagued by quarter cracks. This year he won two races on Dubai World Cup day with Diamond Stripes and the super sprinter Benny The Bull.
My main concern for Big Brown is not the distance, nor the fact that he has had only three career starts. It all comes down to how he is ridden. There are only two scenarios for him to be crowned the winner of The Kentucky Derby. He either clears to the lead early, setting a comfortable pace, or he takes back to stalk the front runners. I expect the latter, given his far outside draw. He might be caught somewhat wide while trying to gain position behind the front-runners, but that's better than being stuck down inside while in traffic all the way. The outermost post may also be a good thing in that he will load last, and not have to stand in the gate for nearly as long as many of the other horses. Big Brown will be very difficult to run down if he can open up daylight turning for home. As in most Derbys, the pace is expected to be quick. Jockey Kent Desormeaux must make a perfectly-timed move to challenge for the lead on the far turn. The longer he can wait, the better. If Big Brown duels or cannot open up turning for home, he will be in deep water. This could set it up for the closers, in particular Colonel John, who I feel is his most dangerous rival.
Second Selection: (10) COLONEL JOHN (Harty Eoin/Nakatani C S)
If you are looking for a horse to beat the Derby favorite Big Brown, your search may be over. Bred in Kentucky by high profile Win Star Farm, Colonel John was cut out to be a good horse from birth. His sire, Tiznow, a California-bred runner, was a dominant force in the Handicap ranks out west from 2000 to 2001. However, his greatest accomplishments came outside of the Golden State, as he emerged victorious in the Breeder?s Cup Classic in 2000 at Churchill Downs. He successfully defended his title the following year in New York, annexing the 2001 Classic at Belmont Park in dramatic fashion. Although his dam was not as accomplished a runner on the racetrack, she was nevertheless versatile, finding her best stride after a winless juvenile season. In all, she won five races throughout her career, handling dirt, grass and eventually winning over a wet track as well.
While Big Brown grabs your attention with his brilliance, and rightfully so, Colonel John has been nothing short of remarkable with his consistency during his brief career. Trained by Eoin Harty, who tutored under trainer Bob Baffert, he has never been worse than second in six career starts, winning on four occasions, and placing on two others. Perhaps a good example of his grit and determination was his recent victory in the Santa Anita Derby on April 5. In that contest, Colonel John lost both position and ground around the far turn, which never bodes well for a winner. However, once jockey Corey Nakatani maneuvered him outside of runners for a stretch bid, he finally began to pick up the pace. With three lengths to make up passing the furlong grounds, Colonel John kicked into overdrive under Nakatani, eventually overhauling a game Bob Black Jack in deep stretch to triumph in dramatic fashion. His final burst of acceleration that day caught my eye, and it clearly enabled Colonel John to effectively snatch ?victory from the jaws of defeat?. While he certainly could never be considered a flashy runner, his workmanlike performances on the racetrack have served him well. Except for his debut effort last summer at Del Mar, Colonel John has not failed to gain ground and/or pass horses in the stretch in his five subsequent starts. That should serve him well as he faces his sternest test to date.
Like several other runners competing in the Run for the Roses, Colonel John is untested over a traditional dirt surface. When he first shipped into Churchill Downs, it took him a while to become acclimated to his new surroundings. He appeared to be a bit unsure of himself, tentative if you will, and noticeably struggled to become familiar with this new surface. However, since that time, he has noticeably turned the corner as evidenced by his ?eye-popping? work on Sunday in 57.61, eventually completing the six furlongs of his gallop-out in a sprightly 1:10.99. After the work, Eoin Harty pronounced him back to his old self, and ready for the challenge that lies ahead of him. If that bullet workout is a true indication of his current level of sharpness, Colonel John could be on the brink of taking his game to another level at a most opportune time.
Earlier, I went into great detail about Colonel John?s pedigree. And, I did so for a reason. Although I am of the opinion that while he might be the most talented horse in the race, he has been an absolute gem of consistency, and is one of only a few runners that are ideally suited to 1-1/4 miles. While the majority of the competition may be gasping for breath as the Derby field turns into the stretch, Colonel John should be finding his best stride at this time. If this Win Star farm homebred is within striking distance of the leaders, and is afforded clear sailing for a late rally, a victory could be in the cards.
Third Selection: (14) MONBA (Pletcher Todd A/Dominguez R A)
Monba is one of two Todd Pletcher entrants in the Derby. There are several reasons to consider him a major player. Monba has won three of five starts. His twelfth place finish in the Fountain Of Youth can easily be ignored. He was squeezed back into the first turn. Obviously something went amiss at that point when he fell back steadily under no urging by rider Edgar Prado. In his final prep for the Derby, Monba returned with a vengeance, to score a gritty win in the Blue Grass. That victory gave him a perfect two for two record over the Keeneland polytrack. It?s back to a conventional dirt track at Churchill for the Derby. Can he be as effective with the switch in surfaces? I see no reason that he can?t. Monba broke his maiden first time out at Keeneland as a two year old, and then came right back to win at a mile at Churchill Downs. Monba is a versatile performer who can adapt to any pace scenario. He has shown the ability to race up close to the lead, or close from behind. A very important factor, which will go unnoticed, is that in all five starts, Monba has raced in full fields of twelve. This can only help him in the Derby where he will not be intimidated by nineteen other horses jockeying for position. It is significant that Edgar Prado who rode him to victory in the Blue Grass, has opted to ride Adriano instead.
Fourth Selection: (19) GAYEGO (Lobo Paulo H/Smith M E)
Gayego is a sharp and improving colt that has never been worse than second in five starts. He has shown that his tactical speed is just as effective going a distance of ground as it is sprinting. Unlike his west coast rival, Colonel John, Gayego has proven he can win outside California on a conventional dirt surface. He won the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park three weeks ago where he forced the pace from the start, holding off a stiff challenge from Z Fortune in the final eighth of a mile. There are two major factors which make him competitive in the Derby. Gayego has shown he has the courage to look a horse in the eye and battle tooth and nail down to the wire. His tactical speed enables his Hall Of Fame rider Mike Smith to place him in perfect striking position from the outset. Gayego also has trainer Paulo Lobo in his corner. Lobo is a master at having a quality performer dead fit for a peak performance in a major stakes event. Lobo shipped in Farda Amiga to Churchill Downs to upset the odds on favorite Take Charge Lady in the 2002 Kentucky Oaks.
Fifth Selection: (9) PYRO (Asmussen Steven M/Bridgmohan S X)
It is impossible for me to give Pyro a pass after a horrendous performance in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. In his first start over polytrack, he showed me nothing at any point during the race. From start to finish, Pyro lost ground at every call, finishing 10th in a field of 12. This is not the type of race I want to see three weeks before the Derby. Pyro?s lofty reputation was built on two strong second place finishes as a two year old against juvenile champion War Pass as well as two stakes wins at the Fair Grounds this winter. All four races were run on dirt. Does this mean that a return to his preferred surface Saturday is enough to reverse his April 12 debacle into a potential victory? Not in my opinion, but I do believe that he could be finishing strongly enough to pass most of the field and garner a minor award. Even if Pyro won the Blue Grass, I would have felt he was a strong ?bet against? for the win spot in the Kentucky Derby. Both of his graded stakes wins were at 1-1/16 miles. Even though he rated beautifully in both races, and had a strong stretch kick, for some reason, Pyro never gave me the impression that his closing rally would be as effective at the Derby distance. Trainer Steve Asmussen indicated following the Blue Grass that he was concerned Pyro got nothing out of that race. That does concern me, but I also look at Pyro's record of running very well on five different dirt surfaces, ranging from 'fast' to 'good' to 'sloppy', and he must be given a chance to rebound with one of his typical strong performances here over a track where he won his only prior try.
The Remainder of the Field (In order of preference)
(4) COURT VISION (Mott William I/Gomez G K)
At the conclusion of Court Vision?s two year old campaign, I had him penciled in as a serious Kentucky Derby victor. He had reeled off three straight victories, capped off by a game win in the Remson Stakes at Aqueduct. Several winners of this important two year old stake have subsequently gone on to win or run well in past Kentucky Derby?s. As a three year old, Court Vision has not improved enough to consider himself as a Derby winner. He has run third in both starts this year. In the Fountain Of Youth, Court Vision sustained a wide rally. It appeared that the game plan of his Hall Of Fame trainer Billy Mott and jockey Garret Gomez was to ?give him one?. I thought it was a perfect sharpener for the Wood Memorial. I expected a much better performance than what I got in the Wood. Court Vision was taken far off the pace, closing ground through the stretch to miss by 1 ? lengths. His performance was more an optical illusion than the solid effort I was looking for. The final time of the Wood was very slow, especially the last eighth of a mile. Court Vision had every chance to win but he could not get the job done. In a field of twenty, which he will encounter in the Derby, He cannot afford a straw in his path when his rider sets him down in the stretch. In the Derby Court Vision will be equipped with blinkers for the first time, but It?s is too late in the game to be a plus.
(15) ADRIANO (Motion H Graham/Prado E S)
Adriano enters the Derby after a strong win five weeks ago in the Lanes End Stakes over polytrack at Turfway Park. Both his prior victories had come on grass. The question remains, will Adriano run a career best effort over conventional dirt at Churchill Downs? He will need to do so to be considered a major player. I feel he can. Adriano was well beaten in the Fountain Of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park prior to the Lanes End. I am willing to excuse that effort. He was severely compromised breaking from an outside post in a field of twelve. Once Adriano took up on the first turn, for all intensive purposes, he was done. In the Lanes End, Adriano?s performance was visually impressive. He showed improved early speed under new rider Edgar Prado. When Prado pushed the button, Adriano responded effortlessly to take the lead turning for home, winning as much the best. He galloped out strong past the wire, suggesting there should be no problem whatsoever about his ability to relish 1 ? miles in the Derby. His pedigree suggests that the longer he goes, the stronger he will be. Superb horseman Graham Motion is a master at developing horses who are bred to go a distance of ground. It is interesting to note that Prado has elected to stay aboard Adriano in the Derby, rather than ride Monba or Tale Of Etaki. He had ridden both horses to victories in their final Derby prep races. Last Sunday, Adriano worked over the Churchill Downs main track for the first time. He seemed not to handle it very well. For this reason, I downgraded his chances.
(6) Z FORTUNE (Asmussen Steven M/Albarado R J)
If Z Fortune were to win the Kentucky Derby, he would join Funny Cide as one of the only two horses bred in New York State to have won The Run for the Roses. Unfortunately for this colt, it will not be his good fortune. Z Fortune comes into the Derby following three straight defeats. He was easily swallowed up by Pyro when second in the Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds. In the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn, Z Fortune came up empty. He rebounded with a solid second to Gayego in the Arkansas Derby, but had the length of the stretch to run down that rival. Z Fortune possesses excellent tactical speed and agility, but everything I have seen indicates that the 1-1/4 mile Derby distance does not play in his favor.
(8) VISIONAIRE (Matz Michael R/Lezcano Jose)
Visionaire has only run worse than third once in six starts and that was a fifth place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland three weeks ago. Visionaire was making his first start on polytrack that afternoon. On closer inspection, he ran better than it ?looks on paper?. Visionaire had a difficult task overcoming a tough outside post in a field of twelve. He rallied through the stretch racing extremely wide. In the Derby, he will have to step up his game ?big time? to be competitive. At this point in his career, Visionaire has proven to be a cut below his major opposition. Two of his three wins have been at a mile, the lone exception being a victory on wet track at 1 1/16 miles which suggests that the Derby distance is too far for him.
(16) DENIS OF CORK (Carroll David/Borel C H)
Denis Of Cork inspires very little confidence after running poorly as the heavy favorite in the Illinois Derby four weeks ago. His effort was a head scratcher because he had run well in his prior three starts, winning each time at three different racetracks, including a maiden win first time out of the box at Churchill Downs. Denis Of Cork likes to lay back and make one well timed rally. The faster the pace, the better it flatters his running style. Even if I give him a ?pass?, when he ran fifth in The Illinois Derby, he has proven to be a cut below several of his rivals in the Derby. Denis Of Cork also has the looks of a runner with distance limitations. 1-1/4 miles is simply too far for him.
(5) EIGHT BELLES (Jones J Larry/Saez Gabriel)
Eight Belles will attempt to be the fourth filly to win the Kentucky Derby in 133 years. Only Winning Colors in 1988, Genuine Risk in 1980 and Regret in 1915, have won The Run For The Roses. Even though Eight Belles is a quality performer, she is clearly not in the same league as the others. Eight Belles enters the Derby off four straight victories, three in stakes races. In her last two, she raced against fields of three and five. In the Derby, Eight Belles will be facing nineteen males. In her last start in the Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn Park, I expected her to win more impressively than she did as the overwhelming favorite. Eight Belles is a very versatile filly. She can stalk or rally from off the pace. She has shown a tendency to break awkwardly from the gate. If this were to occur in the Derby, it would become a monumental task to recover in such big field. I feel that Eight Belles does have the talent to be competitive against this crop of three year olds. I am concerned about her ability to perform her best at the Derby distance.
(2) TALE OF EKATI (Tagg Barclay/Coa E M)
Tale of Etakai won two races, both sprinting, as a two year old. In his first start as a three year old, he was well beaten by Pyro in the Louisiana Derby. This was Tale of Etaki?s first start around two turns on a dry surface. Off that effort, I found it difficult to select him to win the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in his next start. He surprised me when he went on to defeat last year?s juvenile champion War Pass. Tale of Etaki sat a perfect rail trip through the stretch to run down a tired War Pass. The last three furlongs, as well as the final time, were slow. His weak gallop out past the wire indicated to me that I don?t want him on my short list of major contenders. History has shown that any horse that runs well in the Wood must be considered a danger in the Kentucky Derby. Most years I would agree with this assessment, but this year I am not convinced. Recent Hall Of Fame inductee Edgar Prado opted to ride Adriano over Tale of Etaki, which is also a factor that must be considered in assessing his chances relative to those of others in this field.
(13) BOB BLACK JACK (Kasparoff James M/Migliore R)
Bob Black Jack will be making his first start on a conventional dirt surface after seven starts on polytrack and syntyhetic surfaces in Southern California. All three of his victories have come in sprints. In his last two starts, Bob Black Jack stretched out to two turns and ran better than I expected. His second place finish in the Santa Anita Derby four weeks ago was excellent. He battled tooth and nail, only to be run down in the very late stages by Colonel John. I did not like the fact that he drifted out late after such a grueling effort. Bob Black Jack knows only one way to win and that is the front end. He will be hounded from the start by other front runners and Big Brown waiting to pounce. I can't see him holding on through the final furlong for anything more than a very minor award.
(1) COOL COAL MAN (Zito Nicholas P/Leparoux Julien R)
Cool Coal Man?s claim to fame as a three year old was a victory in the Fountain Of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park. He sat a perfect trip from the advantageous rail post. In his final prep race before the Kentucky Derby, Cool Coal Man flattened out badly, after chasing a slow pace over polytrack in the Blue Grass Stakes three weeks ago. He returns to dirt Saturday, which he clearly prefers. All four career wins have been over a dirt surface, one at Churchill. Cool Coal Man possesses excellent tactical speed, but it is likely that 1-1/4 miles is too long a distance for him.
(17) COWBOY CAL (Pletcher Todd A/Velazquez J R)
Trainer Todd Pletcher has won every award that a horseman can attain in this game, except the most important jewel of them all, The Kentucky Derby. Pletcher has a record of 0-19. On Saturday, he will start two horses, Monba and Cowboy Cal. It is very difficult to separate these two in terms of how I think both will perform in the Derby. As a matter of fact, they squared off three weeks ago on polytrack in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. Monba defeated Cowboy Cal by a short neck. Cowboy Cal has plenty of upside. He has made a lofty reputation for himself on grass with four excellent races. Three were won effortlessly. His lone start on dirt was a seventh place finish in his debut at Saratoga. Although the verdict is still out on how Cowboy Cal will handle Churchill Down?s conventional dirt surface, his biggest obstacle will be Big Brown. Cowboy Cal likes to be on or near the lead from the start. When he gets hooked by Big Brown, he could very likely ?call it a day?.
(11) Z HUMOR (Mott William I/Douglas R R)
Z Humor?s gut wrenching dead heat victory in his final start as a two year old appeared to have taken its toll. Since that effort, his three races this year have shown nothing to suggest that he will be competitive in the Derby. In each of those starts, he has lost ground in the stretch, whether he stalked slow paces, or tried to close on quick fractions. Z Humor clearly has distance limitations. Offspring of his sire Distorted Humor have proven that they are most effective up to 1 1/16 miles. This will be the point in the race when Z Humor begins to pack it in.
(7) BIG TRUCK (Tagg Barclay/Castellano J J)
Big Truck has never given me the impression of being a long distance runner. Even though he won the Tampa Bay Derby two starts back at 1 1/16 miles, Big Truck had a perfect trip against a very weak field. In the Blue Grass Stakes, he was a badly beaten eleventh in his first start over polytrack. All three of his wins have come on dirt which he will return to at Churchill Downs. This is a quality New York Bred who would be better served finding a softer spot at distances no further than a mile.
(3) ANAK NAKAL (Zito Nicholas P/Bejarano R)
Anak Nakal has run on dirt in all six career outings. In his last start as a two year old, he won a Stake at Churchill Downs. Since returning at three, he ran poorly in the Fountain Of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream and the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn. Anak Nakal showed more life, running fifth with blinkers on, in a slowly run Wood Memorial at Aqueduct four weeks ago. He rallied from far off the pace, picking up tired horses late. Anak Nakal has not shown me enough to consider him a threat in the Derby, especially at the 1-1/4 mile distance.
(12) SMOOTH AIR (Stutts Bennie F Jr/Cruz M R)
Smooth Air was a no threat second place finisher to Big Brown in the Florida Derby five weeks ago. Off that alone, he should be competitive in the Derby. The only problem is a major one, which greatly diminishes his chances on Saturday. Last week Smooth Air got sick and lost two days of training with a fever. He went back to the track on Monday, and according to his 70 year old trainer Bernie Stutts, ?its full steam ahead?. When you are asking a three year old to run 1-1/4 miles in the Kentucky Derby after even the slightest illness and missing training time, it is folly to suggest that runner can win, let alone be at his best. If I were the connections of Smooth Air, I would fold my cards now and wait for a better hand.
(18) RECAPTURETHEGLORY (Roussel Louis J Iii/Baird E T)
Recapturetheglory?s claim to fame entering the Kentucky Derby was his decisive front running victory in the Illinois Derby four weeks ago. He was loose on the lead setting slow fractions. Recapturetheglory also benefitted by a track surface which strongly favored inside speed. He is certain not to get his own way in the Derby. Big Brown will see to that.
Wagering Strategy
The most important aspect in winning money at the races is the wagering strategies. Many times you can pick the winner, and either lose money on the race, or not optimize your profit. Every race requires a different strategy. The Kentucky Derby is one of the most difficult races to pick the winner, given the field of 20 horses. Once you determine who your ?key? horse is, a win bet is the first play you want to make. The next wager is deciding if you want to concentrate on exactas, trifectas or superfectas. The super is the hardest wager to make because it requires you to pick the first 4 horses in order. The ten cent super has become popular because it allows the player, especially a small bettor, to make multiple combinations for a small investment. Unfortunately, in this year?s Derby, the cost of a superfecta play is $1.00. I will suggest a win wager on Big Brown and a smaller ?saver? win bet on Colonel John. These are going to be the top two wagering choices. The reason I am making this play is that I like Big Brown. I am making a saver win bet on Colonel John because he will go off at longer odds than what he deserves to be, and he is my second choice. You want to bet enough on Big Brown to show a nice profit, and wager just enough money on Colonel John to break even or make a little money if he wins.
The next play is a small equal exacta box with Big Brown and Colonial John. Even though these are the two betting choices, if the exacta comes in, it will be a decent payoff because of the large field. I don?t want to get too involved in the exactas, because I will be concentrating most on the trifectas, where there is the potential for a big score. There will be no superfecta wagers. On our trifectas we will 'key' either Big Brown or Colonel John on top on each ticket. Three of our trifecta tickets require both of them to finish in the top 3, while two of our trifecta tickets only require that one of those two colts wins the race, regardless of what the other does.
* A win bet on (20)BIG BROWN
.
* A smaller saver win bet on (10)COLONEL JOHN
.
* Exacta box 10-20
.
* Trifecta Wagers (all tickets are in denominations of $1.00):
.
TICKET 1: 10-20 with 10-20 with ALL = $36
TICKET 2: 20 with 9-10-14-19 with 2-4-5-6-8-9-10-13-14-15-16-19 = $44
TICKET 3: 10 with 9-14-19-20 with 2-4-5-6-8-9-13-14-15-16-19-20 = $44
TICKET 4: 20 with 2-4-5-6-8-9-13-14-15-16-19 with 10 = $11
TICKET 5: 10 with 2-4-5-6-8-9-13-14-15-16-19 with 20 = $11
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TOTAL Trifecta wagers above = $146
Churchill Downs Race 10 - 134th Running of the Kentucky Derby
Churchill Downs Race 10 - 134th Running of the Kentucky Derby 1 1/4m Grade I 3yo, Purse: $2,000,000. Post Time: ET
Race Synopsis
The Kentucky Derby, then and now. Handicapping thoroughbred races has always been a complex process. Now, with the emergence of synthetic tracks the last few years, that task has become increasingly more difficult, if not down right impossible as these ?fake? surfaces have wreaked havoc with handicapping. Case in point is the recently concluded Keeneland meet, where favorites took it on the chin, winning at a rate that is far below the national average. While it is true that no dirt tracks are alike, each synthetic surface has its own nuance as well. Perhaps even more so, these artificial tracks are supposedly comprised of relatively the same materials. Even if a thoroughbred possesses the so-called ?proper breeding? necessary to handle this new wave type of surface, there is no guarantee that they will ultimately find it to their liking, as it has been stated that they change constantly due to weather, racing, and even track maintenance. While I am all for safety in racing for all concerned, bettors have voiced their discontent as to the complexities of handicapping those tracks who have made the change to synthetic.
As a result, handicapping has become more difficult at these venues, and the Kentucky Derby has been impacted as well. Handicappers must ascertain whether those horses that lack traditional dirt form, will be able to produce their ?A? race at Churchill Downs. Also, some of the trainers who once dominated the Kentucky Derby have fallen by the wayside. In recent years, D. Wayne Lukas and Bob Baffert, who were a conspicuous presence in the Run for the Roses, and could be counted upon to have a legitimate contender or two, have been absent of late. And, while trainer Nick Zito will be represented this year, he is not the major force he once was. I suppose it is great to have an infusion of new blood, but it seems these changes are all happening at once. Undoubtedly, there has been a changing of the guard, as every year there seems to be a different trainer, a relative newcomer to the Triple Crown trail, who journeys to Louisville seeking fame and glory at Churchill Downs, and ultimately comes away with his or her name etched in the annals of racing history.
Life, as we all know, is full of changes. We all do our very best to adapt to these new challenges whether they be in our daily lives, or even something, as inconsequential at times, as isolating the winner of a horserace. Selecting the Kentucky Derby winner, which has always been demanding, seems to be more troublesome these days. This year, several major contenders are unproven over a conventional dirt surface, let alone Churchill Downs. In years past, horses were eliminated based upon their Dosage Index, which indicated their ability, or lack thereof of getting the 1 1/4 mile Derby distance. Also, runners which failed to be within 10 lbs. of the top horse on the Experimental Free Handicap were cast aside due to lack of accomplishment as a two-year-old. Number of starts, days away, and even the finish position from a horse?s last prep race, have been angles used by handicappers at one time or another to pare a bulky Derby field down to a palatable number of contenders.
While I may have gone off on a tangent, what I am trying to say is that it is extremely difficult these days to eliminate any horse from consideration in the Kentucky Derby based solely upon a predetermined set of rules. The Kentucky Derby may just be the most difficult race in the world to handicap, in addition to being the most recognized. While everyone wants to brag about picking the Derby winner, I am thrilled whenever I show a profit in the race. Despite the fact that most everyone believes that handicapping the winner is the path to profitability in thoroughbred racing, the key that unlocks the door is diligently betting what you have handicapped. Keeping that thought in mind, good luck in this year?s Kentucky Derby!
The Field from the rail out
# Name ML
1 COOL COAL MAN 20/1
2 TALE OF EKATI 15/1
3 ANAK NAKAL 30/1
4 COURT VISION 20/1
5 EIGHT BELLES 15/1
6 Z FORTUNE 15/1
7 BIG TRUCK 50/1
8 VISIONAIRE 20/1
9 PYRO 6/1
10 COLONEL JOHN 4/1
11 Z HUMOR 30/1
12 SMOOTH AIR 20/1
13 BOB BLACK JACK 20/1
14 MONBA 15/1
15 ADRIANO 30/1
16 DENIS OF CORK 20/1
17 COWBOY CAL 20/1
18 RECAPTURETHEGLORY 20/1
19 GAYEGO 15/1
20 BIG BROWN 3/1
First Selection: (20) BIG BROWN (Dutrow Richard E/Desormeaux K J)
It was closing day at Saratoga when Big Brown made his debut going two turns on grass. Racing without lasix and ice cold in the betting at 14-1, it was unlikely that he would win. When the gates opened, Big Brown zipped to the lead and never looked back, scoring a scintillating eleven length victory. I was mesmerized by his performance. Big Brown moved effortlessly with giant strides. I said to myself that he was going to win the Breeders? Cup Juvenile Turf, to be run for the first time at Monmouth Park in late October. It never occurred to me that Big Brown?s bright future could also be on dirt and as the favorite to win this year?s Kentucky Derby.
IEAH Stables purchased a majority interest in Big Brown from owner Paul Pompa Jr. after his maiden win and gave him to trainer Richard Dutrow Jr. Dutrow is the son of Richard Dutrow Sr. who was one of the most successful trainers on the Maryland circuit. When he passed away in 1999, he had won 3,665 races, placing him 13th in all time in victories. Big Brown was pointed for Juvenile Turf, but during a workout on grass at Aqueduct before the race, Big Brown developed a foot infection. It was discovered shortly after that he had a quarter crack. Quarter cracks are vertical cracks in the hairline or coronary band of the horses hoof. They can be large or small and they can make a horse lame. Big Brown was given time to recover. Later in the year he was shipped down to Palm Meadows training center in south Florida to begin training again. He soon developed another quarter crack in the opposite foot and had to be put on the sidelines once again. It wasn?t until early February that his foot problems were behind him and he could go back to serious training. Big Browns workouts were strong. When he easily outworked an older stakes winner named Diamond Stripes, Dutrow knew he had a potential star in his barn (Diamond Stripes has since come back to win the $1 million dollar Godolphin Mile on Dubai World Cup Day).
On March 5, Big Brown finally returned to Gulfstream Park. The race was scheduled for the grass, but wet weather forced it to be switched to the dirt track. Despite not being a 100 % fit, Big Brown demolished the field winning by twelve lengths. Even Dutrow was shocked by the performance. He told reporters ?we did get very lucky for it to come off the grass. If it hadn?t, we might have not run in the Florida Derby!? Twenty four days later Big Brown entered the gate as the heavy favorite for one of the ?key? Kentucky Derby prep races. Big Brown had a tough task having to overcome an outside post in a field of twelve. Following is my Stakes write up on Big Brown when I selected him to win the Florida Derby.
All I have read this week is that any horse breaking from post 12 at 1 1/8 miles at Gulfstream is unlikely to win. History in this race has confirmed this. The Wizard feels differently. They said that about top grass miler Lure when he won the BC mile from post 12. I can go on and on about the critics knocking horses because of false myths. Racing has changed in the US. Horses are not bred the same as in the past. I like to go the other way when others take the path of least resistance. That is why I like Big Brown to win the Florida Derby. I could be wrong, but so can trainer Richard Dutrow who has elected to stay in Florida to saddle this 3 year old, instead of flying to Dubai and enjoying the luxuries only we can imagine and dream off. That tells me that it is more important to him to win this 1 million dollar race instead of the cool 2 million he can earn with Benny The Bull winning the sprint. (I know for a fact that Dutrow has no problem flying around the place when big money is on the line). I am not concerned one bit about the outside post, because there is a lack of early speed in the race. Rider Desormeaux can shoot to the lead or stalk without losing much ground around the first turn. He has worked brilliantly for this race. I love Dutrow in big game situations. I may be wrong, but if I am, chalk one up for the majority.
Big Brown shot to the lead and never looked back, winning by five lengths. Big Brown's final time of 1:48.16 was just 0.37 of a second off Brass Hat's 1 1/8-mile track record, and nearly a full second faster than 2006 Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro's final clocking for his Florida Derby victory earlier that spring. It was also the fastest Florida Derby since Unbridled's Song's victory in 1996.
Since the Florida Derby, Big Brown has not missed a beat. Not only do I think Big Brown is the best horse in the Kentucky Derby, but I also have a special rooting interest in him. Having grown up in New York City and spending many years going to Aqueduct, Belmont and Saratoga, I have become friendly with many trainers, especially when I became a professional handicapper in the mid eighties. I first met Richard Dutrow in the mid nineties and we have been friendly since. I have closely watched his progression from strictly a claiming trainer to one who has built one of the strongest operations in the world. In 2005 Dutrow won two Breeders? Cup races on the same day capped off with a victory by Saint Liam in the $4 million dollar Breeders? Cup Classic. He has won such prestigious Grade 1 races as the Metropolitan Mile, The Carter, Coaching Club American Oaks, De Francis Dash and The Frank Kilroe Mile. Last year Dutrow won the Breeders? Cup Mile with Kip Deville who also was plagued by quarter cracks. This year he won two races on Dubai World Cup day with Diamond Stripes and the super sprinter Benny The Bull.
My main concern for Big Brown is not the distance, nor the fact that he has had only three career starts. It all comes down to how he is ridden. There are only two scenarios for him to be crowned the winner of The Kentucky Derby. He either clears to the lead early, setting a comfortable pace, or he takes back to stalk the front runners. I expect the latter, given his far outside draw. He might be caught somewhat wide while trying to gain position behind the front-runners, but that's better than being stuck down inside while in traffic all the way. The outermost post may also be a good thing in that he will load last, and not have to stand in the gate for nearly as long as many of the other horses. Big Brown will be very difficult to run down if he can open up daylight turning for home. As in most Derbys, the pace is expected to be quick. Jockey Kent Desormeaux must make a perfectly-timed move to challenge for the lead on the far turn. The longer he can wait, the better. If Big Brown duels or cannot open up turning for home, he will be in deep water. This could set it up for the closers, in particular Colonel John, who I feel is his most dangerous rival.
Second Selection: (10) COLONEL JOHN (Harty Eoin/Nakatani C S)
If you are looking for a horse to beat the Derby favorite Big Brown, your search may be over. Bred in Kentucky by high profile Win Star Farm, Colonel John was cut out to be a good horse from birth. His sire, Tiznow, a California-bred runner, was a dominant force in the Handicap ranks out west from 2000 to 2001. However, his greatest accomplishments came outside of the Golden State, as he emerged victorious in the Breeder?s Cup Classic in 2000 at Churchill Downs. He successfully defended his title the following year in New York, annexing the 2001 Classic at Belmont Park in dramatic fashion. Although his dam was not as accomplished a runner on the racetrack, she was nevertheless versatile, finding her best stride after a winless juvenile season. In all, she won five races throughout her career, handling dirt, grass and eventually winning over a wet track as well.
While Big Brown grabs your attention with his brilliance, and rightfully so, Colonel John has been nothing short of remarkable with his consistency during his brief career. Trained by Eoin Harty, who tutored under trainer Bob Baffert, he has never been worse than second in six career starts, winning on four occasions, and placing on two others. Perhaps a good example of his grit and determination was his recent victory in the Santa Anita Derby on April 5. In that contest, Colonel John lost both position and ground around the far turn, which never bodes well for a winner. However, once jockey Corey Nakatani maneuvered him outside of runners for a stretch bid, he finally began to pick up the pace. With three lengths to make up passing the furlong grounds, Colonel John kicked into overdrive under Nakatani, eventually overhauling a game Bob Black Jack in deep stretch to triumph in dramatic fashion. His final burst of acceleration that day caught my eye, and it clearly enabled Colonel John to effectively snatch ?victory from the jaws of defeat?. While he certainly could never be considered a flashy runner, his workmanlike performances on the racetrack have served him well. Except for his debut effort last summer at Del Mar, Colonel John has not failed to gain ground and/or pass horses in the stretch in his five subsequent starts. That should serve him well as he faces his sternest test to date.
Like several other runners competing in the Run for the Roses, Colonel John is untested over a traditional dirt surface. When he first shipped into Churchill Downs, it took him a while to become acclimated to his new surroundings. He appeared to be a bit unsure of himself, tentative if you will, and noticeably struggled to become familiar with this new surface. However, since that time, he has noticeably turned the corner as evidenced by his ?eye-popping? work on Sunday in 57.61, eventually completing the six furlongs of his gallop-out in a sprightly 1:10.99. After the work, Eoin Harty pronounced him back to his old self, and ready for the challenge that lies ahead of him. If that bullet workout is a true indication of his current level of sharpness, Colonel John could be on the brink of taking his game to another level at a most opportune time.
Earlier, I went into great detail about Colonel John?s pedigree. And, I did so for a reason. Although I am of the opinion that while he might be the most talented horse in the race, he has been an absolute gem of consistency, and is one of only a few runners that are ideally suited to 1-1/4 miles. While the majority of the competition may be gasping for breath as the Derby field turns into the stretch, Colonel John should be finding his best stride at this time. If this Win Star farm homebred is within striking distance of the leaders, and is afforded clear sailing for a late rally, a victory could be in the cards.
Third Selection: (14) MONBA (Pletcher Todd A/Dominguez R A)
Monba is one of two Todd Pletcher entrants in the Derby. There are several reasons to consider him a major player. Monba has won three of five starts. His twelfth place finish in the Fountain Of Youth can easily be ignored. He was squeezed back into the first turn. Obviously something went amiss at that point when he fell back steadily under no urging by rider Edgar Prado. In his final prep for the Derby, Monba returned with a vengeance, to score a gritty win in the Blue Grass. That victory gave him a perfect two for two record over the Keeneland polytrack. It?s back to a conventional dirt track at Churchill for the Derby. Can he be as effective with the switch in surfaces? I see no reason that he can?t. Monba broke his maiden first time out at Keeneland as a two year old, and then came right back to win at a mile at Churchill Downs. Monba is a versatile performer who can adapt to any pace scenario. He has shown the ability to race up close to the lead, or close from behind. A very important factor, which will go unnoticed, is that in all five starts, Monba has raced in full fields of twelve. This can only help him in the Derby where he will not be intimidated by nineteen other horses jockeying for position. It is significant that Edgar Prado who rode him to victory in the Blue Grass, has opted to ride Adriano instead.
Fourth Selection: (19) GAYEGO (Lobo Paulo H/Smith M E)
Gayego is a sharp and improving colt that has never been worse than second in five starts. He has shown that his tactical speed is just as effective going a distance of ground as it is sprinting. Unlike his west coast rival, Colonel John, Gayego has proven he can win outside California on a conventional dirt surface. He won the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park three weeks ago where he forced the pace from the start, holding off a stiff challenge from Z Fortune in the final eighth of a mile. There are two major factors which make him competitive in the Derby. Gayego has shown he has the courage to look a horse in the eye and battle tooth and nail down to the wire. His tactical speed enables his Hall Of Fame rider Mike Smith to place him in perfect striking position from the outset. Gayego also has trainer Paulo Lobo in his corner. Lobo is a master at having a quality performer dead fit for a peak performance in a major stakes event. Lobo shipped in Farda Amiga to Churchill Downs to upset the odds on favorite Take Charge Lady in the 2002 Kentucky Oaks.
Fifth Selection: (9) PYRO (Asmussen Steven M/Bridgmohan S X)
It is impossible for me to give Pyro a pass after a horrendous performance in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. In his first start over polytrack, he showed me nothing at any point during the race. From start to finish, Pyro lost ground at every call, finishing 10th in a field of 12. This is not the type of race I want to see three weeks before the Derby. Pyro?s lofty reputation was built on two strong second place finishes as a two year old against juvenile champion War Pass as well as two stakes wins at the Fair Grounds this winter. All four races were run on dirt. Does this mean that a return to his preferred surface Saturday is enough to reverse his April 12 debacle into a potential victory? Not in my opinion, but I do believe that he could be finishing strongly enough to pass most of the field and garner a minor award. Even if Pyro won the Blue Grass, I would have felt he was a strong ?bet against? for the win spot in the Kentucky Derby. Both of his graded stakes wins were at 1-1/16 miles. Even though he rated beautifully in both races, and had a strong stretch kick, for some reason, Pyro never gave me the impression that his closing rally would be as effective at the Derby distance. Trainer Steve Asmussen indicated following the Blue Grass that he was concerned Pyro got nothing out of that race. That does concern me, but I also look at Pyro's record of running very well on five different dirt surfaces, ranging from 'fast' to 'good' to 'sloppy', and he must be given a chance to rebound with one of his typical strong performances here over a track where he won his only prior try.
The Remainder of the Field (In order of preference)
(4) COURT VISION (Mott William I/Gomez G K)
At the conclusion of Court Vision?s two year old campaign, I had him penciled in as a serious Kentucky Derby victor. He had reeled off three straight victories, capped off by a game win in the Remson Stakes at Aqueduct. Several winners of this important two year old stake have subsequently gone on to win or run well in past Kentucky Derby?s. As a three year old, Court Vision has not improved enough to consider himself as a Derby winner. He has run third in both starts this year. In the Fountain Of Youth, Court Vision sustained a wide rally. It appeared that the game plan of his Hall Of Fame trainer Billy Mott and jockey Garret Gomez was to ?give him one?. I thought it was a perfect sharpener for the Wood Memorial. I expected a much better performance than what I got in the Wood. Court Vision was taken far off the pace, closing ground through the stretch to miss by 1 ? lengths. His performance was more an optical illusion than the solid effort I was looking for. The final time of the Wood was very slow, especially the last eighth of a mile. Court Vision had every chance to win but he could not get the job done. In a field of twenty, which he will encounter in the Derby, He cannot afford a straw in his path when his rider sets him down in the stretch. In the Derby Court Vision will be equipped with blinkers for the first time, but It?s is too late in the game to be a plus.
(15) ADRIANO (Motion H Graham/Prado E S)
Adriano enters the Derby after a strong win five weeks ago in the Lanes End Stakes over polytrack at Turfway Park. Both his prior victories had come on grass. The question remains, will Adriano run a career best effort over conventional dirt at Churchill Downs? He will need to do so to be considered a major player. I feel he can. Adriano was well beaten in the Fountain Of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park prior to the Lanes End. I am willing to excuse that effort. He was severely compromised breaking from an outside post in a field of twelve. Once Adriano took up on the first turn, for all intensive purposes, he was done. In the Lanes End, Adriano?s performance was visually impressive. He showed improved early speed under new rider Edgar Prado. When Prado pushed the button, Adriano responded effortlessly to take the lead turning for home, winning as much the best. He galloped out strong past the wire, suggesting there should be no problem whatsoever about his ability to relish 1 ? miles in the Derby. His pedigree suggests that the longer he goes, the stronger he will be. Superb horseman Graham Motion is a master at developing horses who are bred to go a distance of ground. It is interesting to note that Prado has elected to stay aboard Adriano in the Derby, rather than ride Monba or Tale Of Etaki. He had ridden both horses to victories in their final Derby prep races. Last Sunday, Adriano worked over the Churchill Downs main track for the first time. He seemed not to handle it very well. For this reason, I downgraded his chances.
(6) Z FORTUNE (Asmussen Steven M/Albarado R J)
If Z Fortune were to win the Kentucky Derby, he would join Funny Cide as one of the only two horses bred in New York State to have won The Run for the Roses. Unfortunately for this colt, it will not be his good fortune. Z Fortune comes into the Derby following three straight defeats. He was easily swallowed up by Pyro when second in the Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds. In the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn, Z Fortune came up empty. He rebounded with a solid second to Gayego in the Arkansas Derby, but had the length of the stretch to run down that rival. Z Fortune possesses excellent tactical speed and agility, but everything I have seen indicates that the 1-1/4 mile Derby distance does not play in his favor.
(8) VISIONAIRE (Matz Michael R/Lezcano Jose)
Visionaire has only run worse than third once in six starts and that was a fifth place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland three weeks ago. Visionaire was making his first start on polytrack that afternoon. On closer inspection, he ran better than it ?looks on paper?. Visionaire had a difficult task overcoming a tough outside post in a field of twelve. He rallied through the stretch racing extremely wide. In the Derby, he will have to step up his game ?big time? to be competitive. At this point in his career, Visionaire has proven to be a cut below his major opposition. Two of his three wins have been at a mile, the lone exception being a victory on wet track at 1 1/16 miles which suggests that the Derby distance is too far for him.
(16) DENIS OF CORK (Carroll David/Borel C H)
Denis Of Cork inspires very little confidence after running poorly as the heavy favorite in the Illinois Derby four weeks ago. His effort was a head scratcher because he had run well in his prior three starts, winning each time at three different racetracks, including a maiden win first time out of the box at Churchill Downs. Denis Of Cork likes to lay back and make one well timed rally. The faster the pace, the better it flatters his running style. Even if I give him a ?pass?, when he ran fifth in The Illinois Derby, he has proven to be a cut below several of his rivals in the Derby. Denis Of Cork also has the looks of a runner with distance limitations. 1-1/4 miles is simply too far for him.
(5) EIGHT BELLES (Jones J Larry/Saez Gabriel)
Eight Belles will attempt to be the fourth filly to win the Kentucky Derby in 133 years. Only Winning Colors in 1988, Genuine Risk in 1980 and Regret in 1915, have won The Run For The Roses. Even though Eight Belles is a quality performer, she is clearly not in the same league as the others. Eight Belles enters the Derby off four straight victories, three in stakes races. In her last two, she raced against fields of three and five. In the Derby, Eight Belles will be facing nineteen males. In her last start in the Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn Park, I expected her to win more impressively than she did as the overwhelming favorite. Eight Belles is a very versatile filly. She can stalk or rally from off the pace. She has shown a tendency to break awkwardly from the gate. If this were to occur in the Derby, it would become a monumental task to recover in such big field. I feel that Eight Belles does have the talent to be competitive against this crop of three year olds. I am concerned about her ability to perform her best at the Derby distance.
(2) TALE OF EKATI (Tagg Barclay/Coa E M)
Tale of Etakai won two races, both sprinting, as a two year old. In his first start as a three year old, he was well beaten by Pyro in the Louisiana Derby. This was Tale of Etaki?s first start around two turns on a dry surface. Off that effort, I found it difficult to select him to win the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in his next start. He surprised me when he went on to defeat last year?s juvenile champion War Pass. Tale of Etaki sat a perfect rail trip through the stretch to run down a tired War Pass. The last three furlongs, as well as the final time, were slow. His weak gallop out past the wire indicated to me that I don?t want him on my short list of major contenders. History has shown that any horse that runs well in the Wood must be considered a danger in the Kentucky Derby. Most years I would agree with this assessment, but this year I am not convinced. Recent Hall Of Fame inductee Edgar Prado opted to ride Adriano over Tale of Etaki, which is also a factor that must be considered in assessing his chances relative to those of others in this field.
(13) BOB BLACK JACK (Kasparoff James M/Migliore R)
Bob Black Jack will be making his first start on a conventional dirt surface after seven starts on polytrack and syntyhetic surfaces in Southern California. All three of his victories have come in sprints. In his last two starts, Bob Black Jack stretched out to two turns and ran better than I expected. His second place finish in the Santa Anita Derby four weeks ago was excellent. He battled tooth and nail, only to be run down in the very late stages by Colonel John. I did not like the fact that he drifted out late after such a grueling effort. Bob Black Jack knows only one way to win and that is the front end. He will be hounded from the start by other front runners and Big Brown waiting to pounce. I can't see him holding on through the final furlong for anything more than a very minor award.
(1) COOL COAL MAN (Zito Nicholas P/Leparoux Julien R)
Cool Coal Man?s claim to fame as a three year old was a victory in the Fountain Of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park. He sat a perfect trip from the advantageous rail post. In his final prep race before the Kentucky Derby, Cool Coal Man flattened out badly, after chasing a slow pace over polytrack in the Blue Grass Stakes three weeks ago. He returns to dirt Saturday, which he clearly prefers. All four career wins have been over a dirt surface, one at Churchill. Cool Coal Man possesses excellent tactical speed, but it is likely that 1-1/4 miles is too long a distance for him.
(17) COWBOY CAL (Pletcher Todd A/Velazquez J R)
Trainer Todd Pletcher has won every award that a horseman can attain in this game, except the most important jewel of them all, The Kentucky Derby. Pletcher has a record of 0-19. On Saturday, he will start two horses, Monba and Cowboy Cal. It is very difficult to separate these two in terms of how I think both will perform in the Derby. As a matter of fact, they squared off three weeks ago on polytrack in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. Monba defeated Cowboy Cal by a short neck. Cowboy Cal has plenty of upside. He has made a lofty reputation for himself on grass with four excellent races. Three were won effortlessly. His lone start on dirt was a seventh place finish in his debut at Saratoga. Although the verdict is still out on how Cowboy Cal will handle Churchill Down?s conventional dirt surface, his biggest obstacle will be Big Brown. Cowboy Cal likes to be on or near the lead from the start. When he gets hooked by Big Brown, he could very likely ?call it a day?.
(11) Z HUMOR (Mott William I/Douglas R R)
Z Humor?s gut wrenching dead heat victory in his final start as a two year old appeared to have taken its toll. Since that effort, his three races this year have shown nothing to suggest that he will be competitive in the Derby. In each of those starts, he has lost ground in the stretch, whether he stalked slow paces, or tried to close on quick fractions. Z Humor clearly has distance limitations. Offspring of his sire Distorted Humor have proven that they are most effective up to 1 1/16 miles. This will be the point in the race when Z Humor begins to pack it in.
(7) BIG TRUCK (Tagg Barclay/Castellano J J)
Big Truck has never given me the impression of being a long distance runner. Even though he won the Tampa Bay Derby two starts back at 1 1/16 miles, Big Truck had a perfect trip against a very weak field. In the Blue Grass Stakes, he was a badly beaten eleventh in his first start over polytrack. All three of his wins have come on dirt which he will return to at Churchill Downs. This is a quality New York Bred who would be better served finding a softer spot at distances no further than a mile.
(3) ANAK NAKAL (Zito Nicholas P/Bejarano R)
Anak Nakal has run on dirt in all six career outings. In his last start as a two year old, he won a Stake at Churchill Downs. Since returning at three, he ran poorly in the Fountain Of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream and the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn. Anak Nakal showed more life, running fifth with blinkers on, in a slowly run Wood Memorial at Aqueduct four weeks ago. He rallied from far off the pace, picking up tired horses late. Anak Nakal has not shown me enough to consider him a threat in the Derby, especially at the 1-1/4 mile distance.
(12) SMOOTH AIR (Stutts Bennie F Jr/Cruz M R)
Smooth Air was a no threat second place finisher to Big Brown in the Florida Derby five weeks ago. Off that alone, he should be competitive in the Derby. The only problem is a major one, which greatly diminishes his chances on Saturday. Last week Smooth Air got sick and lost two days of training with a fever. He went back to the track on Monday, and according to his 70 year old trainer Bernie Stutts, ?its full steam ahead?. When you are asking a three year old to run 1-1/4 miles in the Kentucky Derby after even the slightest illness and missing training time, it is folly to suggest that runner can win, let alone be at his best. If I were the connections of Smooth Air, I would fold my cards now and wait for a better hand.
(18) RECAPTURETHEGLORY (Roussel Louis J Iii/Baird E T)
Recapturetheglory?s claim to fame entering the Kentucky Derby was his decisive front running victory in the Illinois Derby four weeks ago. He was loose on the lead setting slow fractions. Recapturetheglory also benefitted by a track surface which strongly favored inside speed. He is certain not to get his own way in the Derby. Big Brown will see to that.
Wagering Strategy
The most important aspect in winning money at the races is the wagering strategies. Many times you can pick the winner, and either lose money on the race, or not optimize your profit. Every race requires a different strategy. The Kentucky Derby is one of the most difficult races to pick the winner, given the field of 20 horses. Once you determine who your ?key? horse is, a win bet is the first play you want to make. The next wager is deciding if you want to concentrate on exactas, trifectas or superfectas. The super is the hardest wager to make because it requires you to pick the first 4 horses in order. The ten cent super has become popular because it allows the player, especially a small bettor, to make multiple combinations for a small investment. Unfortunately, in this year?s Derby, the cost of a superfecta play is $1.00. I will suggest a win wager on Big Brown and a smaller ?saver? win bet on Colonel John. These are going to be the top two wagering choices. The reason I am making this play is that I like Big Brown. I am making a saver win bet on Colonel John because he will go off at longer odds than what he deserves to be, and he is my second choice. You want to bet enough on Big Brown to show a nice profit, and wager just enough money on Colonel John to break even or make a little money if he wins.
The next play is a small equal exacta box with Big Brown and Colonial John. Even though these are the two betting choices, if the exacta comes in, it will be a decent payoff because of the large field. I don?t want to get too involved in the exactas, because I will be concentrating most on the trifectas, where there is the potential for a big score. There will be no superfecta wagers. On our trifectas we will 'key' either Big Brown or Colonel John on top on each ticket. Three of our trifecta tickets require both of them to finish in the top 3, while two of our trifecta tickets only require that one of those two colts wins the race, regardless of what the other does.
* A win bet on (20)BIG BROWN
.
* A smaller saver win bet on (10)COLONEL JOHN
.
* Exacta box 10-20
.
* Trifecta Wagers (all tickets are in denominations of $1.00):
.
TICKET 1: 10-20 with 10-20 with ALL = $36
TICKET 2: 20 with 9-10-14-19 with 2-4-5-6-8-9-10-13-14-15-16-19 = $44
TICKET 3: 10 with 9-14-19-20 with 2-4-5-6-8-9-13-14-15-16-19-20 = $44
TICKET 4: 20 with 2-4-5-6-8-9-13-14-15-16-19 with 10 = $11
TICKET 5: 10 with 2-4-5-6-8-9-13-14-15-16-19 with 20 = $11
.
TOTAL Trifecta wagers above = $146
WUNDERDOG
CHURCHILL DOWNS Race # (SEVEN) THE CHURCHILL DISTAFF TURF MILE (G3) (3:00 PM Eastern)
(# 2) SHARP SUSAN - Solid runner has a good chance at beating probable heavy favorite "Dreaming of Anna." Likes to stalk and pounce and that would appear to be today's strategy. Lost to "Anna" the only time they met, but this filly had an outside post and a wide trip. Wouldn't be surprised if she's much closer to the top with the cozy post draw. Won her seasonal debut on the turf at Keeneland and the filly she beat (Criminologist) won a stakes at Aqueduct last weekend. Big chance at the win
(# 9) Dreaming of Anna - No major knocks from me as this filly continues to impress with her turf efforts (9-7-2). She's never raced on this infield, but she's won on five different turf courses, all with a "come and catch me style." Training well at Keeneland and she'll be very tough indeed if she's allowed to clear.
(# 8) Ventura - Daughter of "Chester House" was just an average performer in her native England, but has really picked up her game since coming to the states. Two-for-two for Bob Frankel, both sprinting, one on the Santa Anita turf and a recent win on the Keeneland poly surface. Moves back to the grass and keeps Gomez aloft and filly has more room for improvement.
(# 7) Bayou's Lassie - Speed/stalker should help keep "Anna" from stealing away to an easy lead. Solid turf performer (9-5-2-0) appears a bit below the other contenders, but is in the masterful hands of Edgar Prado and she could receive a nice comfortable trip.
CHURCHILL DOWNS Race # (SEVEN) THE CHURCHILL DISTAFF TURF MILE (G3) (3:00 PM Eastern)
(# 2) SHARP SUSAN - Solid runner has a good chance at beating probable heavy favorite "Dreaming of Anna." Likes to stalk and pounce and that would appear to be today's strategy. Lost to "Anna" the only time they met, but this filly had an outside post and a wide trip. Wouldn't be surprised if she's much closer to the top with the cozy post draw. Won her seasonal debut on the turf at Keeneland and the filly she beat (Criminologist) won a stakes at Aqueduct last weekend. Big chance at the win
(# 9) Dreaming of Anna - No major knocks from me as this filly continues to impress with her turf efforts (9-7-2). She's never raced on this infield, but she's won on five different turf courses, all with a "come and catch me style." Training well at Keeneland and she'll be very tough indeed if she's allowed to clear.
(# 8) Ventura - Daughter of "Chester House" was just an average performer in her native England, but has really picked up her game since coming to the states. Two-for-two for Bob Frankel, both sprinting, one on the Santa Anita turf and a recent win on the Keeneland poly surface. Moves back to the grass and keeps Gomez aloft and filly has more room for improvement.
(# 7) Bayou's Lassie - Speed/stalker should help keep "Anna" from stealing away to an easy lead. Solid turf performer (9-5-2-0) appears a bit below the other contenders, but is in the masterful hands of Edgar Prado and she could receive a nice comfortable trip.
Sizing up the Kentucky Derby Field
The Key Contenders
Jeff Frank
Contributing Editor
Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - Most of the buzz this spring has been about Big Brown and his unbelievable performance in the Florida Derby. Add to that the recent comments made by his trainer, Rick Dutrow, and the 134th renewal of the "Run for the Roses" could be a very special two minutes.
If you happened to miss it, here's what Dutrow said. "Until somebody shows me the beast, this is not a tough horse race. I know there's no one going into this race as good as [Big Brown] is right now. If he breaks clean, it's a mismatch to me on paper."
Most trainers usually hold their own horses in high esteem, but rarely does one go public about his feelings towards the quality of the other colts in the race.
It's true Big Brown has been unstoppable in his young career, but another horse three years ago was even faster. Bellamy Road came to Kentucky with four wins in five races, including two straight wins in 2005 by a combined 33 1/4- lengths. His final prep prior to the Derby was a 17 1/2-length score in the Wood Memorial, a race in which he earned a Beyer number of 120. For comparison purposes, the highest figure Big Brown has secured is 106.
Bellamy Road was a front-runner that had to learn how to rate in the Derby after Spanish Chestnut blazed out the first half in 45 1/5 and three quarters in 1:09 2/5. The George Steinbrenner-owned colt was fifth at both points, a position he certainly was not accustomed to, and ended up tiring through the stretch, hitting the wire in seventh place.
The jury is still out on Big Brown if he can rate slightly off the pace. He didn't need the lead in his second start, but also was never more than one length off the top spot at any point in the race either. In his two appearances this year, he ran his first quarter under 23 seconds each time, reached the half below 46 twice, and sped six furlongs no slower than 1:10.
One can only imagine how fast they'll go in the Derby, and based on how loud Big Brown's connections have been about his supposed greatness, you just have to wonder if Kent Desormeaux won't just move him a little too early just to prove his explosiveness. Big Brown will also have to fend off a major challenge from Gayego approaching the far turn, which could soften him up in the stretch drive.
All this may be for naught if he is indeed a "freak of nature," but he will have to prove it against the best of the best this coming Saturday. Remember, the only very good horse he's beaten has been Smooth Air, and even he'll be 30-1 or higher in the Derby.
So why is everyone so much in love with Big Brown? The majority of racing fans feel this crop of three-year-olds is not only much weaker than last year's, but on the slow end when compared to almost every year this decade. Big Brown has been the only horse that has posted a pair of triple-digit Beyers on dirt in 2008, and it's those speed figures that have lifted him onto this high pedestal.
However, the reason his numbers tower over the rest of the field is that "Team Beyer" has not adjusted the figs for synthetic surfaces, giving the false impression that he's much faster than everyone else. Since the Blue Grass and all the races in Southern California have been run over synthetics, the numbers on Monba and Colonel John should be much higher than they appear in the racing form. Something to remember when placing bets next weekend.
THE TOP CHOICES (Prior to the Post Position draw)
It should be noted that Behindatthebar has withdrawn from the race, giving Denis of Cork the opportunity to jump into the field. With the Todd Pletcher- trained horse off the board, Tale of Ekati falls out of my top 10, in a spot now held by Visionaire. Z Fortune drops from eight to nine, so part three of this trilogy begins with the horse with the eighth-best chance of smelling the roses - Pyro.
The Risen Star and Louisiana Derby winner went off as the even money favorite in the Blue Grass (on Polytrack) and came up empty with a 10th place finish. It's very easy to dismiss the race by saying he didn't like the surface, but as mentioned in part one of this series, not one horse since 1957 has come back to win the Derby after finishing worse than 4th in his prior start.
It's true there was no such thing as Poly 50 years ago, but there are concerns about his ability to win at 10 furlongs. His dam side is loaded with speed and his sire Pulpit, who finished a tiring fourth in the '97 Derby, has not produced many horses able to win past 1 1/8-miles.
In addition, Pyro has had only one race longer than 1 1/16, if you can call his effort in the Blue Grass a race. Don't forget, his huge last-to-first burst in the Risen Star came all the way back on February 9. He does have talent, but he also could pull a Circular Quay (last year's LA Derby winner from off the pace) and run a non-threatening sixth.
Gayego, the number seven horse on the list, impressed more than a few experts in winning the Arkansas Derby, and with three wins and two seconds in five lifetime starts, he could end up going off the third choice behind Big Brown and Colonel John.
However, one has to wonder if he would have won the Ark Derby if better horses were entered. The race was weak on paper after the first two finishers, and it ended that way with 37-1 shot Tres Borrachos finishing almost five lengths back in third.
It might have been an easy task to sit a length or two off of "The Three Drunks" and be able to withstand the likes of Z Fortune through the stretch, but it will be a completely different story having to chase Big Brown, Recapturetheglory and Bob Black Jack in the early going, and still be able to withstand the presence of Colonel John, Monba and the rest of the closers through the lane.
In addition, if he runs his final three furlongs anywhere close to the 38 3/5 it took him to finish the Arkansas Derby, say goodbye to any realistic chance of winning the Kentucky Derby. He does have tons of talent, already out- running his pedigree, and even if he doesn't hit the board on Saturday, he could be a threat in the Preakness.
Court Vision, the next horse on the list, failed to improve on his two-year- old form with third-place finishes in both the Fountain of Youth and Wood Memorial.
At first glance, it appears he is entirely too slow to win this race, as his Beyer numbers have never topped the 90 mark, even on true dirt. Nevertheless, he does have a stakes win over the track and he's been training fabulously at Churchill the past couple of weeks.
On the negative side, he could be too far back to corral the entire field and win the race. Some might argue that it's been done before, as Giacomo and Street Sense both came from 18th and 17th respectively, after six furlongs to gain the victory, but there's a major difference between how those two performed prior to Kentucky and how Court Vision runs.
Giacomo was never more than four lengths behind the leader after three- quarters in any race leading up to the Derby (excluding his first career race) and the farthest Street Sense had to come from off the pace after six furlongs was 4 1/2-lengths back, not counting his Breeders Cup Juvenile victory. Court Vision, on the other hand, has had to make up 10 lengths at the three-quarter mark in both his three-year-old starts.
That's why Bill Mott sharpened him up with a 46 1/5 bullet work on April 17, hoping to improve his colt's mid-race positioning. If that works, Court Vision could be motoring home through the stretch at Churchill Downs.
THREE THROUGH FIVE (IN REVERSE ORDER)
Denis of Cork has somewhat of a similar running style to Court Vision, but the main difference between the two is that the David Carroll-trained colt has more natural ability. It didn't show in the Illinois Derby, and his fifth- place finish almost kept him out of the most important Derby of them all.
Nevertheless, he had no chance that day based on three factors: the track bias did not favor his come-from-behind style, he stumbled slightly approaching the clubhouse turn, and, most importantly, he might not have been revved up for the race based on the misguided handling that took place by his owner.
Previously, he was undefeated in three starts, including a monster performance in wining the Southwest at Oaklawn Park, and no one, with the possible exception of Colonel John, has looked better at Churchill Downs the past week. Additionally, he is one of six horses with a win over the track.
On the downside, he'll be entering the Derby with only four races under his belt and just one since February 18. Even Big Brown has raced twice since then. In addition, the last time a horse won with four lifetime starts was all the way back in 1918.
One other interesting nugget to chew on. Since Calvin Borel has picked up the mount, it raises a key question: when was the last time a jockey had back-to- back Kentucky Derby victories? You have to go back to 1982-83, when Eddie Delahoussaye won with Gato Del Sol and Sunny's Halo.
Before I announce the name of the horse that's fourth on the list, let me tell you a bit about him. He's a multiple stakes winner and one of only two colts in the field to have won a pair of stakes races around two turns with at least one coming at nine furlongs. The other? Colonel John.
He's recorded three wins and two seconds in his last five starts, including a bang-up second in his lone grade one event, beaten just a neck. In his two races at 1 1/8 miles, his fractional times (from the half to the mile) were 47 3/5 and 48 1/5, numbers faster than almost every horse in the race except for Colonel John. That quickness will help since he'll most likely sit about five to seven lengths off the early pace. He also ran his final three furlongs in 36 1/5 and 36 3/5, with his final eighth coming in 12 1/5 and 12 2/5 in those two events, signaling an outstanding turn of foot as the field moves around the far turn. And, it's at that point of the race where the Derby is usually won.
He is also magnificently bred for the 1 1/4 miles, as his sire was a multiple group one winner in Europe at three, and even came to the states to finish second in the Breeders' Cup Classic on the dirt at Churchill Downs. His dam's mother is a half-sister to Behrens, who won the Suburban Handicap, as well as running second in many other 10-furlong events, such as the Dubai World Cup, Jockey Club Gold Cup and the Travers.
This particular horse will not be one of the favorites. He won't even be 20-1. His expected final odds will range anywhere from 30 to 40-1, giving him the title of the biggest overlay in the race. His only knock (and almost every participant has one) is the fact he's run only once on dirt and finished seventh. But that was his first race and it came all the way back in the summer of 2007. What's not to say he won't like it now after running five more times, including a non-turf, second-place finish last time out?
His name is Cowboy Cal, and he's not getting any respect because he's a turf horse. Well my friends, take a quick look at how some other so-called "turf horses" have done of late.
Last year, Sedgefield, who ran second to Hard Spun on Polytrack in the Lane's End, finished fifth in Kentucky at 58-1 and he wasn't anywhere near as good on turf as Cowboy Cal. In addition, one could argue that last year's Derby field was much tougher than this year's edition.
Two years ago, there was a special turf horse that had won the same two stakes that Cowboy Cal galloped in: the Tropical Park Derby and the Laurel Futurity. His name was Barbaro. There certainly cannot be any comparison between the two horses since Barbaro reeled off a pair of dirt victories prior to the Derby, but don't underestimate Cowboy Cal's second in the Blue Grass. Sure he got away with a slow pace, but it was his first race in almost two months and he still held off 10 dirt and Polytrack horses.
If you're looking for a long shot with a great chance to win, look no further than the "Cowboy."
At the opposite end of the betting spectrum comes Big Brown. Even with all the negatives mentioned above, and I haven't even touched on previous quarter cracks in both front feet, he still must be feared since there is a chance he is that much better than everyone else.
It's true that horses with three career starts do not usually win the Derby (hasn't been done since 1915), but we live in an age where three-year-olds aren't placed on the track 10 to 12 times anymore. In fact, only four of the 20 horses in this year's race have run more than seven times. If you don't care to bet Big Brown, do so because you think he won't be able to sustain constant harassment from the other pacesetters, more than for his lack of experience.
THE TOP TWO
Monba ranks second on the top 10 Derby list after his bounce-back performance in the Blue Grass. The son of Maria's Mon (sire of 2001 Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos) finished last in his only other prep this year, the Fountain of Youth, due to a cut on his right hind leg suffered during the running of the race. He then lost valuable training time, not to mention undergoing throat surgery. But through it all, trainer Todd Pletcher never lost sight of his goal, and Monba returned with an outstanding race at Keeneland.
This horse hasn't all of a sudden jumped onto the scene with his win in the Blue Grass. He toppled 11 other opponents in two different races as a two- year-old, including a victory over recent Derby Trial winner Macho Again at Churchill Downs last November.
However, his most impressive race (up until a few weeks ago) came with an off- the-board finish in the Cash Call Futurity at Hollywood Park. Not many two- year-olds in their third career start (and first around two turns) are able to come home as strongly as he did, running his final 4 1/2 furlongs in under 53 seconds.
That race, incidentally, is turning into the most important prep as both Monba (fourth) and Colonel John (second) have recorded grade one wins in 2008. Even Sierra Sunset (sixth) took home the grade two, Rebel Stakes, and Tres Borrachos (12th), and Indian Sun (fifth) finished third and fourth respectively in the grade one, Arkansas Derby. Not to mention Eaton's Gift (seventh) won the grade two, Swale Stakes, and Into Mischief (winner) ran second to Georgie Boy in the grade two, San Vicente.
There are many horses in this race with impeccable breeding for 10 furlongs, and Monba is certainly one of them. As previously mentioned, his sire, Maria's Mon, has already produced a Kentucky Derby champion (Monarchos) and his broodmare sire, Easy Goer won the 1 1/2 miles Belmont Stakes.
Another reason Monba might be on the way up is the surgery performed on his throat after the Fountain of Youth. Many horses have returned to win back-to- back races after such a procedure, including Alysheba, who won the Blue Grass (although disqualified from the top spot) and then the Derby, and the 2007 champion sprinter Midnight Lute garnered victories in the Forego and Breeders' Cup Sprint.
Monba has shown an ability to run well close to the pace (the Blue Grass) and from out-of-the-clouds (the Cash Call) and that versatility will come in handy in Louisville. However, there are two major negatives he must overcome. First, he worked poorly at Keeneland last Saturday going five furlongs in 1:02 3/5. He has never been a great horse in the mornings, but he did blow out four furlongs right before the Blue Grass in 47 1/5.
Secondly, since he acquired nothing from his last-place finish in the Fountain of Youth, he technically is coming into the Derby off only one prep race this year. It helps a little that his last race of 2007 came in late December, but is he going to be 100% fit with just the Blue Grass as his sole "real" race in '08?
Colonel John is by far and away the top choice to win the 2008 Kentucky Derby. He is the most accomplished horse in the field (the only one without any flaws) and in most years would be the favorite. His only negative - never having run on dirt - has been answered with an effortless 57 4/5 work at Churchill Downs on April 27. His win in the Santa Anita Derby (final furlong in 12 flat) was eye-catching, and if the race had been run on dirt, his Beyer figure would have definitely topped the magical 100 mark.
His sire Tiznow won back-to-back Breeders' Cup Classics and his dam, Sweet Damsel, is by Turkoman, who won the Marlboro Cup and Widener Handicaps at 10 panels, along with finishing second in the 1986 BC Classic and the 1985 Travers. Two other daughters of Turkoman, Turkos Turn and Turkish Tryst, respectively, produced Preakness and Belmont Stakes winner Point Given, and Kentucky Derby and BC Classic runner-up, Hard Spun.
More importantly, almost every horse that has shipped from synthetic surfaces in Southern California has improved dramatically when switched to dirt at other tracks around the country. Gayego went from Santa Anita to Oaklawn, a similar surface to Churchill Downs, and won the Arkansas Derby improving seven Beyer points in the process from 96 to 103. Even the two other California horses in the race, Tres Borrachos and Indian Sun, ran third and fourth.
Sierra Sunset was an average horse in California until he hit Oaklawn to run second to Denis of Cork in the Southwest and win the Rebel. Even four-year-old Monterey Jazz, who posted only one triple-digit Beyer number in 12 career starts (the last two coming at Santa Anita), came to Lone Star Park this past weekend and rolled in the Texas Mile with a 118 Beyer.
Colonel John is bred to run all day, is the class of the race and has a chance to win this race by five lengths.
Of course a lot can change between Tuesday and Saturday, so the selection order is certainly not set in stone. Wednesday's post-position draw will go a long way in determining the outcome of the race, and the weather could play havoc as well, as the early forecast calls for a 60% chance of thunderstorms for Friday night.
The Key Contenders
Jeff Frank
Contributing Editor
Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - Most of the buzz this spring has been about Big Brown and his unbelievable performance in the Florida Derby. Add to that the recent comments made by his trainer, Rick Dutrow, and the 134th renewal of the "Run for the Roses" could be a very special two minutes.
If you happened to miss it, here's what Dutrow said. "Until somebody shows me the beast, this is not a tough horse race. I know there's no one going into this race as good as [Big Brown] is right now. If he breaks clean, it's a mismatch to me on paper."
Most trainers usually hold their own horses in high esteem, but rarely does one go public about his feelings towards the quality of the other colts in the race.
It's true Big Brown has been unstoppable in his young career, but another horse three years ago was even faster. Bellamy Road came to Kentucky with four wins in five races, including two straight wins in 2005 by a combined 33 1/4- lengths. His final prep prior to the Derby was a 17 1/2-length score in the Wood Memorial, a race in which he earned a Beyer number of 120. For comparison purposes, the highest figure Big Brown has secured is 106.
Bellamy Road was a front-runner that had to learn how to rate in the Derby after Spanish Chestnut blazed out the first half in 45 1/5 and three quarters in 1:09 2/5. The George Steinbrenner-owned colt was fifth at both points, a position he certainly was not accustomed to, and ended up tiring through the stretch, hitting the wire in seventh place.
The jury is still out on Big Brown if he can rate slightly off the pace. He didn't need the lead in his second start, but also was never more than one length off the top spot at any point in the race either. In his two appearances this year, he ran his first quarter under 23 seconds each time, reached the half below 46 twice, and sped six furlongs no slower than 1:10.
One can only imagine how fast they'll go in the Derby, and based on how loud Big Brown's connections have been about his supposed greatness, you just have to wonder if Kent Desormeaux won't just move him a little too early just to prove his explosiveness. Big Brown will also have to fend off a major challenge from Gayego approaching the far turn, which could soften him up in the stretch drive.
All this may be for naught if he is indeed a "freak of nature," but he will have to prove it against the best of the best this coming Saturday. Remember, the only very good horse he's beaten has been Smooth Air, and even he'll be 30-1 or higher in the Derby.
So why is everyone so much in love with Big Brown? The majority of racing fans feel this crop of three-year-olds is not only much weaker than last year's, but on the slow end when compared to almost every year this decade. Big Brown has been the only horse that has posted a pair of triple-digit Beyers on dirt in 2008, and it's those speed figures that have lifted him onto this high pedestal.
However, the reason his numbers tower over the rest of the field is that "Team Beyer" has not adjusted the figs for synthetic surfaces, giving the false impression that he's much faster than everyone else. Since the Blue Grass and all the races in Southern California have been run over synthetics, the numbers on Monba and Colonel John should be much higher than they appear in the racing form. Something to remember when placing bets next weekend.
THE TOP CHOICES (Prior to the Post Position draw)
It should be noted that Behindatthebar has withdrawn from the race, giving Denis of Cork the opportunity to jump into the field. With the Todd Pletcher- trained horse off the board, Tale of Ekati falls out of my top 10, in a spot now held by Visionaire. Z Fortune drops from eight to nine, so part three of this trilogy begins with the horse with the eighth-best chance of smelling the roses - Pyro.
The Risen Star and Louisiana Derby winner went off as the even money favorite in the Blue Grass (on Polytrack) and came up empty with a 10th place finish. It's very easy to dismiss the race by saying he didn't like the surface, but as mentioned in part one of this series, not one horse since 1957 has come back to win the Derby after finishing worse than 4th in his prior start.
It's true there was no such thing as Poly 50 years ago, but there are concerns about his ability to win at 10 furlongs. His dam side is loaded with speed and his sire Pulpit, who finished a tiring fourth in the '97 Derby, has not produced many horses able to win past 1 1/8-miles.
In addition, Pyro has had only one race longer than 1 1/16, if you can call his effort in the Blue Grass a race. Don't forget, his huge last-to-first burst in the Risen Star came all the way back on February 9. He does have talent, but he also could pull a Circular Quay (last year's LA Derby winner from off the pace) and run a non-threatening sixth.
Gayego, the number seven horse on the list, impressed more than a few experts in winning the Arkansas Derby, and with three wins and two seconds in five lifetime starts, he could end up going off the third choice behind Big Brown and Colonel John.
However, one has to wonder if he would have won the Ark Derby if better horses were entered. The race was weak on paper after the first two finishers, and it ended that way with 37-1 shot Tres Borrachos finishing almost five lengths back in third.
It might have been an easy task to sit a length or two off of "The Three Drunks" and be able to withstand the likes of Z Fortune through the stretch, but it will be a completely different story having to chase Big Brown, Recapturetheglory and Bob Black Jack in the early going, and still be able to withstand the presence of Colonel John, Monba and the rest of the closers through the lane.
In addition, if he runs his final three furlongs anywhere close to the 38 3/5 it took him to finish the Arkansas Derby, say goodbye to any realistic chance of winning the Kentucky Derby. He does have tons of talent, already out- running his pedigree, and even if he doesn't hit the board on Saturday, he could be a threat in the Preakness.
Court Vision, the next horse on the list, failed to improve on his two-year- old form with third-place finishes in both the Fountain of Youth and Wood Memorial.
At first glance, it appears he is entirely too slow to win this race, as his Beyer numbers have never topped the 90 mark, even on true dirt. Nevertheless, he does have a stakes win over the track and he's been training fabulously at Churchill the past couple of weeks.
On the negative side, he could be too far back to corral the entire field and win the race. Some might argue that it's been done before, as Giacomo and Street Sense both came from 18th and 17th respectively, after six furlongs to gain the victory, but there's a major difference between how those two performed prior to Kentucky and how Court Vision runs.
Giacomo was never more than four lengths behind the leader after three- quarters in any race leading up to the Derby (excluding his first career race) and the farthest Street Sense had to come from off the pace after six furlongs was 4 1/2-lengths back, not counting his Breeders Cup Juvenile victory. Court Vision, on the other hand, has had to make up 10 lengths at the three-quarter mark in both his three-year-old starts.
That's why Bill Mott sharpened him up with a 46 1/5 bullet work on April 17, hoping to improve his colt's mid-race positioning. If that works, Court Vision could be motoring home through the stretch at Churchill Downs.
THREE THROUGH FIVE (IN REVERSE ORDER)
Denis of Cork has somewhat of a similar running style to Court Vision, but the main difference between the two is that the David Carroll-trained colt has more natural ability. It didn't show in the Illinois Derby, and his fifth- place finish almost kept him out of the most important Derby of them all.
Nevertheless, he had no chance that day based on three factors: the track bias did not favor his come-from-behind style, he stumbled slightly approaching the clubhouse turn, and, most importantly, he might not have been revved up for the race based on the misguided handling that took place by his owner.
Previously, he was undefeated in three starts, including a monster performance in wining the Southwest at Oaklawn Park, and no one, with the possible exception of Colonel John, has looked better at Churchill Downs the past week. Additionally, he is one of six horses with a win over the track.
On the downside, he'll be entering the Derby with only four races under his belt and just one since February 18. Even Big Brown has raced twice since then. In addition, the last time a horse won with four lifetime starts was all the way back in 1918.
One other interesting nugget to chew on. Since Calvin Borel has picked up the mount, it raises a key question: when was the last time a jockey had back-to- back Kentucky Derby victories? You have to go back to 1982-83, when Eddie Delahoussaye won with Gato Del Sol and Sunny's Halo.
Before I announce the name of the horse that's fourth on the list, let me tell you a bit about him. He's a multiple stakes winner and one of only two colts in the field to have won a pair of stakes races around two turns with at least one coming at nine furlongs. The other? Colonel John.
He's recorded three wins and two seconds in his last five starts, including a bang-up second in his lone grade one event, beaten just a neck. In his two races at 1 1/8 miles, his fractional times (from the half to the mile) were 47 3/5 and 48 1/5, numbers faster than almost every horse in the race except for Colonel John. That quickness will help since he'll most likely sit about five to seven lengths off the early pace. He also ran his final three furlongs in 36 1/5 and 36 3/5, with his final eighth coming in 12 1/5 and 12 2/5 in those two events, signaling an outstanding turn of foot as the field moves around the far turn. And, it's at that point of the race where the Derby is usually won.
He is also magnificently bred for the 1 1/4 miles, as his sire was a multiple group one winner in Europe at three, and even came to the states to finish second in the Breeders' Cup Classic on the dirt at Churchill Downs. His dam's mother is a half-sister to Behrens, who won the Suburban Handicap, as well as running second in many other 10-furlong events, such as the Dubai World Cup, Jockey Club Gold Cup and the Travers.
This particular horse will not be one of the favorites. He won't even be 20-1. His expected final odds will range anywhere from 30 to 40-1, giving him the title of the biggest overlay in the race. His only knock (and almost every participant has one) is the fact he's run only once on dirt and finished seventh. But that was his first race and it came all the way back in the summer of 2007. What's not to say he won't like it now after running five more times, including a non-turf, second-place finish last time out?
His name is Cowboy Cal, and he's not getting any respect because he's a turf horse. Well my friends, take a quick look at how some other so-called "turf horses" have done of late.
Last year, Sedgefield, who ran second to Hard Spun on Polytrack in the Lane's End, finished fifth in Kentucky at 58-1 and he wasn't anywhere near as good on turf as Cowboy Cal. In addition, one could argue that last year's Derby field was much tougher than this year's edition.
Two years ago, there was a special turf horse that had won the same two stakes that Cowboy Cal galloped in: the Tropical Park Derby and the Laurel Futurity. His name was Barbaro. There certainly cannot be any comparison between the two horses since Barbaro reeled off a pair of dirt victories prior to the Derby, but don't underestimate Cowboy Cal's second in the Blue Grass. Sure he got away with a slow pace, but it was his first race in almost two months and he still held off 10 dirt and Polytrack horses.
If you're looking for a long shot with a great chance to win, look no further than the "Cowboy."
At the opposite end of the betting spectrum comes Big Brown. Even with all the negatives mentioned above, and I haven't even touched on previous quarter cracks in both front feet, he still must be feared since there is a chance he is that much better than everyone else.
It's true that horses with three career starts do not usually win the Derby (hasn't been done since 1915), but we live in an age where three-year-olds aren't placed on the track 10 to 12 times anymore. In fact, only four of the 20 horses in this year's race have run more than seven times. If you don't care to bet Big Brown, do so because you think he won't be able to sustain constant harassment from the other pacesetters, more than for his lack of experience.
THE TOP TWO
Monba ranks second on the top 10 Derby list after his bounce-back performance in the Blue Grass. The son of Maria's Mon (sire of 2001 Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos) finished last in his only other prep this year, the Fountain of Youth, due to a cut on his right hind leg suffered during the running of the race. He then lost valuable training time, not to mention undergoing throat surgery. But through it all, trainer Todd Pletcher never lost sight of his goal, and Monba returned with an outstanding race at Keeneland.
This horse hasn't all of a sudden jumped onto the scene with his win in the Blue Grass. He toppled 11 other opponents in two different races as a two- year-old, including a victory over recent Derby Trial winner Macho Again at Churchill Downs last November.
However, his most impressive race (up until a few weeks ago) came with an off- the-board finish in the Cash Call Futurity at Hollywood Park. Not many two- year-olds in their third career start (and first around two turns) are able to come home as strongly as he did, running his final 4 1/2 furlongs in under 53 seconds.
That race, incidentally, is turning into the most important prep as both Monba (fourth) and Colonel John (second) have recorded grade one wins in 2008. Even Sierra Sunset (sixth) took home the grade two, Rebel Stakes, and Tres Borrachos (12th), and Indian Sun (fifth) finished third and fourth respectively in the grade one, Arkansas Derby. Not to mention Eaton's Gift (seventh) won the grade two, Swale Stakes, and Into Mischief (winner) ran second to Georgie Boy in the grade two, San Vicente.
There are many horses in this race with impeccable breeding for 10 furlongs, and Monba is certainly one of them. As previously mentioned, his sire, Maria's Mon, has already produced a Kentucky Derby champion (Monarchos) and his broodmare sire, Easy Goer won the 1 1/2 miles Belmont Stakes.
Another reason Monba might be on the way up is the surgery performed on his throat after the Fountain of Youth. Many horses have returned to win back-to- back races after such a procedure, including Alysheba, who won the Blue Grass (although disqualified from the top spot) and then the Derby, and the 2007 champion sprinter Midnight Lute garnered victories in the Forego and Breeders' Cup Sprint.
Monba has shown an ability to run well close to the pace (the Blue Grass) and from out-of-the-clouds (the Cash Call) and that versatility will come in handy in Louisville. However, there are two major negatives he must overcome. First, he worked poorly at Keeneland last Saturday going five furlongs in 1:02 3/5. He has never been a great horse in the mornings, but he did blow out four furlongs right before the Blue Grass in 47 1/5.
Secondly, since he acquired nothing from his last-place finish in the Fountain of Youth, he technically is coming into the Derby off only one prep race this year. It helps a little that his last race of 2007 came in late December, but is he going to be 100% fit with just the Blue Grass as his sole "real" race in '08?
Colonel John is by far and away the top choice to win the 2008 Kentucky Derby. He is the most accomplished horse in the field (the only one without any flaws) and in most years would be the favorite. His only negative - never having run on dirt - has been answered with an effortless 57 4/5 work at Churchill Downs on April 27. His win in the Santa Anita Derby (final furlong in 12 flat) was eye-catching, and if the race had been run on dirt, his Beyer figure would have definitely topped the magical 100 mark.
His sire Tiznow won back-to-back Breeders' Cup Classics and his dam, Sweet Damsel, is by Turkoman, who won the Marlboro Cup and Widener Handicaps at 10 panels, along with finishing second in the 1986 BC Classic and the 1985 Travers. Two other daughters of Turkoman, Turkos Turn and Turkish Tryst, respectively, produced Preakness and Belmont Stakes winner Point Given, and Kentucky Derby and BC Classic runner-up, Hard Spun.
More importantly, almost every horse that has shipped from synthetic surfaces in Southern California has improved dramatically when switched to dirt at other tracks around the country. Gayego went from Santa Anita to Oaklawn, a similar surface to Churchill Downs, and won the Arkansas Derby improving seven Beyer points in the process from 96 to 103. Even the two other California horses in the race, Tres Borrachos and Indian Sun, ran third and fourth.
Sierra Sunset was an average horse in California until he hit Oaklawn to run second to Denis of Cork in the Southwest and win the Rebel. Even four-year-old Monterey Jazz, who posted only one triple-digit Beyer number in 12 career starts (the last two coming at Santa Anita), came to Lone Star Park this past weekend and rolled in the Texas Mile with a 118 Beyer.
Colonel John is bred to run all day, is the class of the race and has a chance to win this race by five lengths.
Of course a lot can change between Tuesday and Saturday, so the selection order is certainly not set in stone. Wednesday's post-position draw will go a long way in determining the outcome of the race, and the weather could play havoc as well, as the early forecast calls for a 60% chance of thunderstorms for Friday night.
Richard Dutrow
Big Brown buck Derby trends
As a rule, a 2-year-old maiden race on turf at Saratoga is not the launchpad for the Kentucky Derby, but trainer Rick Dutrow has never been accused of being overly concerned with the rules.
Following an improbable path that most recently featured a resounding victory in the March 29 Florida Derby, Big Brown is now among the favorites for America's most famous horse race, which is now just over one month away.
Big Brown began his career on the turf at Saratoga Sept. 3 for owner Paul Pompa and trainer Patrick Reynolds, who we hope managed to cash a ticket or two when the son of Boundary tow-roped a 10-horse field of maidens, drawing off down the stretch to win by an eye-opening 11 1/4 lengths and paying $31.40 to win.
The victory was on the Spa's closing-day card, when the Bill Mott-trained Majestic Warrior won the featured Hopeful Stakes by 2 1/4 lengths and moved to the forefront of early contenders for the 2008 Kentucky Derby.
Both horses attracted the attention of some of the industry's most discerning eyes. John Magnier's Coolmore operation, always on the lookout for future stallion prospects, cut a deal with New York Yankees boss George Steinbrenner, Majestic Warrior's owner and breeder, to buy a half-interest in the son of A.P. Indy shortly after that Grade 1 triumph. No price was disclosed, but the buzz around the deal put the value of the colt well in excess of $20 million. Majestic Warrior remained under the care of Mott, who despite his Hall of Fame credentials has never had a serious candidate for the Kentucky Derby.
Less than two weeks after his maiden win, a majority interest in Big Brown was purchased by IEAH Stables and the colt was turned over to Dutrow, who would likely need to climb over a number of dead bodies before joining Mott in the Hall of Fame at the National Museum of Racing in Saratoga Springs, N.Y. Big Brown's price was not disclosed, either, but it most assuredly was far less than what Coolmore paid for its half interest in Majestic Warrior.
Since Sept. 3, Big Brown has taken both of his subsequent starts: an off-the-turf mile allowance race March 5 at Gulfstream Park that he won by 12 3/4 lengths, and the Florida Derby, which resulted in a five-length wire-to-wire victory.
Majestic Warrior, on the other hand, has gone 0-for-3 since being sold, failing to hit the board and suffering double-digit losses in the Champagne, Louisiana Derby, and Florida Derby.
Big Brown has been plagued with quarter cracks in two feet that caused Dutrow to detour him from his original goals: the Pilgrim Stakes on the turf at Belmont last Sept. 29 and the inaugural Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf at Monmouth Park Oct. 26. But after some time off, the colt began picking up his feet in miraculous fashion while training at Palm Meadows in South Florida this winter, even outworking the graded stakes winner Diamond Stripes on one occasion. The latter, incidentally, buoyed Big Brown's Florida Derby chances when he won the Group 1 Godolphin Mile on the Dubai World Cup program earlier in the day March 29.
Following Big Brown's huge allowance win at Gulfstream, Dutrow and the IEAH management team decided to point the colt for the Florida Derby, which came up weak and included only two graded stakes winners: the aforementioned Majestic Warrior and Grade 2 Hutcheson Stakes winner Smooth Air.
Big Brown overcame the outside post position in the field of 12, with jockey Kent Desormeaux gunning the colt toward the front in a very short run to the first turn. He set extremely fast fractions and kept on going without ever being serious threatened. If Dutrow and his veterinarian can keep Big Brown healthy, the colt will be a serious threat to win the Kentucky Derby, despite his relative lack of racing experience.
Dutrow has plenty of big-time experience, having won three Breeders' Cup races, including the 2005 Classic with Horse of the Year Saint Liam. The 48-year-old son of the late Maryland trainer Dick Dutrow has had several run-ins with racing officials, however, and served a 60-day suspension in 2005 for breaking medication and claiming rules. Last year, he was suspended 14 days for violating the terms of that 2005 suspension.
For owners who want results, Dutrow is as good as they come. He is consistently ranked among the trainers with the highest winning percentage, and has a knack for moving horses up after acquiring them from other trainers.
You might not like Rick Dutrow, but you've got to respect his chances to break through May 3 with Big Brown in the Kentucky Derby.
ADRIANO:
Strengths: He might be one of the best candidates to get the mile and a quarter on Saturday. He has never raced at less than 1 1/16 miles in his seven career starts, giving him a good foundation for the distance demands. He also is a fresh horse, as he will be making his first start since his March 22 win in the Grade 2 Lane?s End on Polytrack at Turfway Park. Edgar Prado, who won the Kentucky Derby in 2006 with Barbaro, partnered with Adriano for the first time in the Lane?s End and has chosen to stick with him over Grade 1 Blue Grass winner Monba.
Weaknesses: He has not won on conventional dirt. In his one start on it, he finished ninth in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park, a 1 1/8-mile race that went in a modest time of 1:50. As for his Lane?s End, the effort was not flattered by runner-up Halo Najib nor third-place finisher Medjool, who came back in their next starts to run a respective seventh and eighth in the Blue Grass.
Strategy: Adriano needs a ground-saving trip Saturday, as well as good pace up front to fuel his late run. It appears the fractions should be honest, at the very least, courtesy of such quick rivals as Big Brown, Bob Black Jack, Gayego, Recapturetheglory, and perhaps the filly Eight Belles.
Value: Adriano needs a ground-saving trip Saturday, as well as good pace up front to fuel his late run. It appears the fractions should be honest, at the very least, courtesy of such quick rivals as Big Brown, Bob Black Jack, Gayego, Recapturetheglory, and perhaps the filly Eight Belles.
Anak Nakal
Strengths: He has moved forward in his last two starts and could be coming up to a peak effort in the Derby. Sharp half-mile work here April 25 is another positive sign that he could be coming around at just the right time. He ran the best race of his career here as a 2-year-old, and from the looks of his latest work, he appears to thrive on this surface. His pedigree is a big plus as it strongly suggests that 10 furlongs will be well within his range.
Weaknesses: The Wood set up perfectly for him, but despite a painfully slow final eighth, he wasn?t able to make much of an impact in the stretch. That was also a pretty weak field he beat in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club last year, and he really hasn?t proved that he can compete with the top horses in this division. His career-best Beyer Figure is also quite a bit below what the prominent players in the field have posted.
Strategy: He did show a bit more tactical speed the last time he ran here, and with the sharp work on display, Leparoux should have him a bit closer than he was in the Wood.
Value: The price is going to be deservedly huge, and I won?t have any tickets with him on top. The ?all? option for the bottom half of the exotics is the only place I will consider using him in any of my tickets.
BIG BROWN
Strengths: Appears to be the fastest 3-year-old based on his Florida Derby romp, where he paired up 106 Beyer Speed Figures. Accomplished his graded stakes debut victory from impossible post position 12. Had a brilliant workout after the Florida Derby. Kent Desormeaux seeks his third Kentucky Derby-winning ride (2 for 14), while trainer Richard Dutrow Jr. has been full of confidence about the colt, sold for $3 million after winning his career debut by more than 11 lengths on the Saratoga turf. ?If he breaks clean, it?s a mismatch to me on paper, said Dutrow.
Weaknesses: Like Curlin, who entered last year?s Derby 3 for 3 and finished third, Big Brown gives away racing experience and seasoning to the field. Having only two races as a 3-year-old worked out well for Street Sense last year, but 3-year-olds with only two prep races are 2 for the last 55. Has never been worse than second at the first call in any of his three races, and a quick start from the gate is a must. The 1915 Derby winner, Regret, is the last runner to win with just three career races before the Derby ? interesting that the Derby was just the first race of her 3-year-old season. He also enters off more than a 30-day layoff; Barbaro was able to accomplish the feat, but he was the first to win the Derby off a similar layoff since Needles in 1956.
Strategy: Wants to be on or near the lead; clearly having the 2-year-old champion and super-fast-from-the-gate War Pass not in this race has to help his pace chances. He sat just off the lead in his Gulfstream allowance laugher, but was used early through strong fractions from a difficult draw in the Florida Derby, but then kept on going and going, opening up the advantage with every stride; should be a force from start to finish.
Value: The betting favorite in a 20-horse wagering event means you get a better price than the typical chalk. The betting favorite never used to win the Kentucky Derby, but last year Street Sense was the favored winner, and in 2004 Smarty Jones was the bettors? choice (2 for last 4). Considering the trainer stated he?s going ?all in,? and since he looked unbeatable in the Florida Derby with the best Beyer Speed Figures in the field, he projects to be the biggest-bet Derby favorite since 2000, when Big Brown?s rider Desormeaux won with 2.60-1 Fusaichi Pegasus.
BIG TRUCK
Strengths: Here?s a New York-bred trained by Barclay Tagg ? ring a bell? Trainer of Funny Cide, the 2003 Derby hero, saddles this runner who began his career in promising fashion in New York. Colt?s only open-company win came in a Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby best remembered for champion War Pass?s major flop as the 1-20 favorite. Respect the fact that he has learned to rate/finish effectively at 3, and if many can dismiss Pyro?s Blue Grass defeat on Polytrack, why can?t they do the same for Big Truck when he was also making his synthetic-surface debut?
Weaknesses: Since beginning his career with two victories over fellow statebreds, Big Truck has yet to deliver upon the confidence expressed by his trainer early on. The Blue Grass 11th-place finisher will be ridden by Javier Castellano as regular rider Eibar Coa opts for the barn?s other Derby starter, Tale of Ekati. Tampa Bay Derby score can be criticized since War Pass simply didn?t fire and the runner he outgamed (Atoned) came back to finish off the board in both the Lexington (8th) and Illinois Derby (4th).
Strategy: A slow pace appears essential for this Derby longshot to contend. Castellano will likely look to establish forward position in fourth or fifth, perhaps three or four lengths off the lead, and hope to grind out a piece of the $2 million purse by getting the jump on the deep closers.
Value: Big Truck will be a longer price than stablemate Tale of Ekati, perhaps in the neighborhood of 40-1. Those projecting a soft pace and fast footing may bank on him injecting value into the trifecta or superfecta, although an outright upset appears out of reach.
Bob Black Jack
Strengths: He?s fast and has shown he can carry it. He was fast enough to set a six-furlong track record at Santa Anita this winter, but classy and versatile enough to be a close second going 1 1/8 miles in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby.
Weaknesses: While he?s got speed, if they try to be up on the pace things could get dicey as there?s plenty of other zip signed up. His three wins have all come sprinting, so while he?s run well in his two routes he remains winless routing. As with a few other West Coast raiders, this will mark his first attempt on a traditional dirt surface.
Strategy: He?s got speed, to be sure, and his natural speed has had him right up on the pace. In the Santa Anita Derby his speed had him pressing the issue, but he showed he could settle and maintain a nice gallop. That left him with gas in the tank to continue on well for a fine Santa Anita Derby finish. Even so, he?ll need to save a lot as furlong No. 10, particularly if he prompts a brisk pace, could get a little tough for him.
Value: Seems to be very much under the radar, despite some quality work and his proximity to Colonel John at the end of the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby (beaten just a half-length). Despite that he figures to be ignored in the wagering and could easily be over 20-1 despite a number of items on the asset side of his ledger.
Colonel John
Strengths: His is without question the leader of the West Coast ranks, having won the Grade 3 Sham and Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. He?s bred to relish this trip ? sire Tiznow was a two-time winner of the Grade 1 Breeders? Cup Classic at 1 1/4 miles and damsire Turkoman was a champion handicap horse who did his best work at 10 furlongs. While there are questions about his ability to handle this surface, he dispelled much of that with a dizzying 57.80-second breeze here Monday.
Weaknesses: He has never raced on dirt, but he is bred for it and has handled the Churchill track well in the mornings. He also has just two preps as a 3-year-old ? only two of the last 53 to try that have won the Derby ? Sunny?s Halo and Street Sense.
Strategy: While he usually sits back and make a run, his Sham win, when he was right up on the pace, albeit a slow one, shows he?s not a one-dimensional deep closer. He sprinted quite nicely at age 2, showing speed on those occasions so that versatility gives rider Corey Nakatani a chance to get position where he pleases, likely in midpack.
Value: His bandwagon has gotten a bit more crowded in recent weeks, particularly off his strong works since the Santa Anita Derby. He may still be second choice behind Big Brown, probably around 5-1, so don?t expect to get rich if he win . . . unless you get the right ones into those exotic supporting spots.
COOL COAL MAN
Strengths: Owns a win over the Churchill main track, and that was one of his better efforts. That was an entry-level allowance but he beat Derby hopeful Recapturetheglory in that one, and he did it despite race-long pressure on the lead. He threw in a clunker in his latest but Keeneland's synthetic surface provides an easy excuse, and that sharp work on April 24 indicates he?s in fine form, fueling the theory that he just didn?t handle the track in the Blue Grass. The 98 Beyer he earned in the Fountain of Youth two back gives him strong credibility and his trainer knows how to win this race.
Weaknesses: Best Beyers have come at Gulfstream, and that includes his top effort in terms of figures, when he won the Fountain of Youth with the aid of a perfect trip. He comes off a weak effort in the Blue Grass, his first try against Grade 1 company, and that was despite a forward trip on top of some slow fractions. He likes to be close-up early on, and if there are quick fractions in the Derby that could cost him, because he?s unlikely to stave off the closers if he?s asked to stay close to a up-tempo pace.
Strategy: Hasn?t shown that he can come from well out of it, and at this extended distance he figures to be involved early, stalking the leaders. He will look to get first run on the leaders, before the closers begin mounting a stretch try.
Value: That dull Blue Grass try in his latest ensures a playable price in the Derby but he figures to have a tough time lasting late after pushing the likes of Big Brown from the start.
Court Vision
Strengths: He has been tested for class, as he exits the Grade 1 Wood Memorial in which he finished a close third to Tale of Ekati and 2-year-old champion War Pass. He also brings surface success to the table. In his lone start at Churchill Downs, he won the Grade 3 Iroquois. Court Vision?s consistency also stands out. He has won 3 of 6 career starts, and has never finished worse than third. His wins include the Grade 2 Remsen at 1 1/8 miles at Aqueduct last November. Just two months later, the prominent ownership group IEAH Stable bought an interest in the colt, who will be ridden by Eclipse Award winner Garrett Gomez.
Weaknesses: He is a closer, making him dependent on pace and a decent trip in the large field of 20. He also has yet to crack triple digits on the Beyer Speed Figure scale, with the career-best 90 he earned in the Wood rating 16 points lower than the 106 earned by probable Kentucky Derby favorite Big Brown in his final prep, the Florida Derby.
Strategy: He could get a great pace to run at down Churchill?s long stretch, thanks to front-runners Big Brown, Bob Black Jack, Gayego, Recapturetheglory, and perhaps the filly Eight Belles.
Value: There is reason to believe he could be coming into a peak race for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott in his third start off the layoff. But win backers should get good value on him with the betting focus expected to be on horses who won major preps in their final starts before the Kentucky Derby.
COWBOY CAT
Strengths: His Blue Grass effort was fine, especially considering the two-month layoff, and his tactical speed gives him a great shot at a good trip in the big Derby field. No real doubts about his ability to get 10 furlongs, since he has ample stamina on both sides of his pedigree, and he hails from a powerhouse barn. Both works at Keeneland were strong, and he finished and galloped out strongly last Saturday. Seems to be coming up to the Derby in prime form.
Weaknesses: He has no dirt form at all, and Pletcher compounded the problem for handicappers by giving him his last two workouts on Polytrack. His Beyers are low, so he will need a breakthrough effort to be competitive, and the barn, for all its accomplishments, has yet to solve the Derby puzzle.
Strategy: Don?t really see him going to the front with other, probably superior speed in the field, but he won?t be far away in the early going and he has demonstrated a passing gear on turf. Look for him to be among the top four early, and he should be within easy striking distance when they turn for home.
Value: The fact that he is unproven on dirt and the need for a substantial Beyer boost to contend should make him upwards of 20-1, and that?s pretty enticing for a runner who has been in the exacta in 5 of 6 starts. Unlikely to win, but he could enliven the exotics
Denis of Cork
Strengths: He?s lightly raced so there?s plenty of upside to him. He returns to the scene of his debut maiden score and he has been working extremely well over the track, which gives him an edge over many of his Derby rivals. His sire was a Grade 1 winner going long and his dam?s sire, Unbridled, won the Kentucky Derby back in 1990. His jockey, Calvin Borel, won this race on Street Sense last year and is used to the hype surrounding the event.
Weaknesses: His winning streak came to an end last out in the Illinois Derby and history has shown that it?s difficult to overcome a lackluster effort in a final Kentucky Derby prep. He runs better from well off the pace and in such a big field he could find trouble as he commences his rally. He still hasn?t run very fast and will need a career best effort to have a say in the outcome.
Strategy: He is best when taken back and allowed to make one late run so he would probably be best positioned towards the outside to avoid traffic. While the pace doesn?t figure to be too quick, it should be contested and that will help his late kick.
Value: He figures to be in the neighborhood of 30-1, watch is a far cry from the even-money price at which he was offered in the Illinois Derby. A case can be made that he will be better in his return to Churchill and if the change in scenery does indeed perk him up then he will represent excellent value.
Eight Belles
Strengths: She is in the midst of a four-race win streak, during which she earned an average Beyer Speed Figure of 96.5. Like the other fillies who have won the Derby, she is large in stature, and she might be able to regroup if she gets bumped in the early going. Her trainer sent out Hard Spun to finish second in the 2007 Derby, so he knows the ropes.
Weaknesses: After breaking awkwardly, she was all out to collar a little-known front-runner while heavily favored in the Grade 2 Fantasy Stakes. Her two most recent scores at Oaklawn both came in small fields against mediocre opposition, and she has never faced anything close to the caliber of competition that she is about to meet. Her dam was a sprinter, and her sire was the beaten favorite in the 1996 Derby.
Strategy: She has done most of her optimum running after stalking tepid fractions, and will probably have to deal with a more taxing pace scenario in the Derby than what she?s used to. Judging by the quick fractions she set in her recent work at Churchill, her connections want don?t want her too far off the front end ? she could end up being in the first flight.
Value: Because she?s a sharp filly who has gotten plenty of media attention, she figures to be overbet in a race that has yielded just three female winners. She should be considered fair value only at more than 20-1.
GAYEGO
Strengths: His combination of speed, versatility, and gameness reminds one of Hard Spun, who had much to like at distances up to nine furlongs. Gayego passed the dirt test with flying colors in the Arkansas Derby, and he worked very well over the Churchill surface while suggesting that a wet track won?t diminish his chances. His underappreciated connections are rock-solid, and he is in sharp and improving form.
Weaknesses: His pedigree doesn?t really support the 10-furlong distance, as juvenile champion Gilded Time was a middle-distance horse at most, and he has proven to be a middle distance sire at most. His damsire won the Preakness, but mom was untried beyond 1 1/16 miles. She did win at that distance, though, and her Tomlinson number for 1 1/4 miles was an impressive 421.
Strategy: He has terrific tactical speed, and jockey Mike Smith figures to make good use of that asset by sitting just off the leader if the pace is honest. If the fractions are very fast, he?ll be just as happy five or six lengths back, and if it is unexpectedly slow he can show the way. It?s great to have a heady veteran making the decisions.
Value: The odds may not drift high enough to overcome doubts about his distance ability, and that makes him a tough sell on the win end. He is too tough to completely fall apart through the stretch, though, so we?ll include him in all of the exotics.
MONBA
Strengths: Versatility is very important in a 20-horse field, and Monba appears to be capable of either stalking or making a late move from well off the pace. You have to love his pedigree for the distance. Maria?s Mon sired the 2001 Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos, and Monba?s damsire, Easy Goer, won the Belmont. Monba also appears to be comfortable on both Polytrack and dirt, as demonstrated by his win at Churchill Downs last year. His connections are rock solid, plus trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey Ramon Dominguez teamed up to finish second with Bluegrass Cat at 30-1 in the 2006 Derby.
Weaknesses: It?s easy to see him bouncing off of his hard-fought win in the Blue Grass and his career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 92 comes up a bit light compared to some of the heavy hitters. He has had only two starts this year, and it had to set him back a little when he was injured in the Fountain of Youth.
Strategy: The pace figures to be lively, and you can expect Dominguez to try and let him settle mid-pack before making a bid approaching the quarter pole. In the unlikely event they aren?t going too fast up front, Dominguez has the option of putting him in the race a little earlier.
Value: There is a good chance he will move forward off of his strong performance in the Blue Grass, but maybe not enough to key on top. He will be prominent in all exotic tickets, and considering that the price will be generous, there will be a couple of small savers with him on top.
PYRO
Strengths: Churchill Downs debut graduate Pyro has proven he?s one of the best of his generation. He was a triple-digit Beyer-Figure runner-up to then-undefeated champion War Pass in both the Grade 1 Champagne and BC Juvenile. A son of Grade winner Pulpit, he overcame slow paces to win two graded Louisiana stakes, so he could still rally strongly if the fractions aren?t quick. He has known no rider except Shaun Bridgmohan and is handled by perennial top trainer Steve Asmussen, fresh off top-three finishes with Horse of the Year Curlin in the 2007 Triple Crown. Polytrack could be a valid excuse for his Blue Grass flop, the first off-the-board finish of his career.
Weaknesses: No trainer wants his horse entering the Derby off his worst performance, but that?s what Asmussen faces after Pyro?s 10th-place finish in the Blue Grass. Pyro lacks a nine-furlong victory and has yet to return to the Beyer heights he reached as a juvenile. This trainer/jockey combo wound up 12th with Zanjero in last year?s Derby and 15th with Private Vow in 2006.
Strategy: Pyro is likely to drop back 10 or 12 lengths off the pace under Bridgmohan before attempting to launch his patented late bid. Like all closers, especially in a 20-horse field, Pyro needs racing luck but should be moving well in the stretch if on his A game.
Value: To the dismay of those holding future pool tickets at 5-1 or less, Pyro should go be 6-1 or slightly higher. The emergence of Big Brown, and to a lesser degree Colonel John, likely relegates him to third choice. Believers in the rebound-minded late-runner will gladly take a swing at that price.
Recapturetheglory
Strengths: He ran the race of his life in capturing the Illinois Derby, but he was aided by a great rail, an outstanding ride, and even fractions. His greatest strengths may be that he ran an excellent race over the Churchill Downs surface as a juvenile and that he has shown more than one style of running. Recent breezes at Louisville are steady also.
Weaknesses: He has only the one graded stakes attempt to his name, and it is most unlikely he will be able to set or press a similar pace as was the case at Hawthorne. When forced to rate, which seems inevitable in this year?s Derby, it is doubtful that he can equal or surpass that Illinois Derby Beyer Speed Figure of 102.
Strategy: Recapturetheglory may have to deal with much swifter internal fractions on Derby Day, and that might put him at a huge disadvantage. As a result, the rider must avoid moving too early and yet, if he finds himself too far off the pacesetting brigade, he will be taking his horse out of his preferred running style.
Value: Even though he is one of the few horses in the field to crack the 100 Beyer mark, a lot of bettors will downplay Recapturetheglory?s last score because of the rail advantage he enjoyed throughout. As a result, he will be a healthy price once again. On the plus side, his experience over the Churchill surface is one of the more underrated factors in handicapping the Derby, something that cannot be underestimated. He is, therefore, worth minor use at the bottom of your exotic plans.
Smooth Air
Strengths: He is coming off his best effort yet in terms of Beyer Speed Figures, closing for the place in the Florida Derby behind Kentucky Derby favorite Big Brown. He?s in line for a career-top figure if he moves forward here, and that would put him in the hunt as far as Beyers go. Running style should suit, as the pace is likely to be quick, and if he gets a clean trip he should be picking up horses late.
Weaknesses: A slight fever the week of a race is more than a slight concern, much more so when the race is the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Bennie Stutts Jr. has been very cautious with this colt, and he wouldn?t be in the race if Stutts felt the horse was compromised. But given the fact that he would need to run the race of his life to win, this it?s certainly a concern if he?s not at his best. His best Beyer came in his last race, the Florida Derby, but he was still five lengths behind Big Brown in that one despite a fast pace up front. He?ll need to run even faster here, and though there?s speed in the race, the fractions don?t figure to be much quicker than what he got there. Two of his three wins have come over wet tracks; over dry strips, he has 1 win in 5 starts. Also, he?s winless in two starts going two turns.
Strategy: He?ll take back off the pace and hope for quick fractions and a clean trip. If he has any run, he?ll look to make use of it into the final turn.
Value: He looms a big price and is worth using in exotics, as he?s an exacta threat if there?s a pace meltdown.
Tale of Ekati
Strengths: He?s a Grade 1 stakes winner around two turns and his dam?s sire won the Kentucky Derby back in 1989. The colt resides in the Barclay Tagg barn as did 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide, so his trainer has already walked this walk successfully.
Weaknesses: He benefited from War Pass?s quick pace in the Wood Memorial and he was just able to get up through a slow final furlong in a race where no one else did much running. He?s yet to reach the Beyer Speed Figure zenith he established as a juvenile and just has not run that fast in his two starts this year. While he picks up the services of jockey Eibar Coa who has won twice on him, Edgar Prado, who had the mount in the Wood Memorial, chooses to ride elsewhere. With just two preps under his belt, the Kentucky Derby comes up rather quickly.
Strategy: His style is to sit within striking range of the leaders early, and given a clean break, he should be able to do just that here. If that type of trip does present itself, he will have every chance to prove he?s good enough to win the Kentucky Derby.
Value: While he was a mild surprise at 8-1 in the Wood Memorial, he figures to be roughly twice that price Saturday. For those who believe he?s a true Grade 1 talent, the price will suffice, and maybe he?s up to the big move forward he?ll need to win this. But given his true chances of winning, he probably won?t offer a lot of value for the wagering dollar.
Visionaire
Strengths: The trainer scored here with Barbaro. Visionaire appears to have no distance limitations based on his late-running style. He rallied from last in the Blue Grass to pass more than half the field and appeared to be screaming out for more distance. He raced too close to the pace when finishing evenly behind Pyro and Z Fortune in the Risen Star, but reverted back to his late-closing style when scoring his Gotham photo victory, posting a new Beyer Speed Figure top over a sloppy track. He is about the only one hoping for rainy skies and a less than fast track on Derby Day.
Weaknesses: Not sure what to make of this year?s edition of the Blue Grass, since so many horses just did not run their race. He rallied 10-wide from post 12 in that event. His Risen Star effort, finishing third behind Pyro and Z Fortune leads us to believe he is a ranked a notch below that group and meets a whole new set of shooters Saturday. He could get shuffled back and need traffic help being a deep closer in a 20-horse field.
Strategy: Regular rider Jose Lezcano has ridden him four straight times, so he knows him well. He obviously prefers to settle from far back and make one huge run. sometimes that works in the Derby, especially if there?s a pace meltdown, but clearly he will need a favorable trip with things breaking the right way after rallying from so far back.
Value: Has never been under 4-1 odds and was not a highly-bet commodity in the Blue Grass. He should be 30-1 odds or more on a fast track; wet-track 98 Beyer is the best in the field and soars his betting value and exotics chances if the track comes up wet.
Z FORTUNE
Strengths: He ran a personal best Beyer Speed Figure in the last placing in the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby, a strong effort considering the extra-wide path and post involved. This was a strikingly similar try to the one in the Grade 3 Risen Star when he was a close second to the well-regarded Pyro. The gray is peaking at the right time, however, and has one of the most successful trainers in the game in his corner.
Weaknesses: He has yet to compete at the Grade 1 level, a definite knock, and his recent workout pattern over the Churchill Downs surface has been modest so far (although Monday?s breeze was done effortlessly). Despite showing some gate speed early in his career, he is a confirmed midpack stylist and may be a victim of an ordinary pace in this year?s Derby. Unless he draws a much more favorable post position than in recent starts, he may have too much work to do.
Strategy: Predicting the pace in this year?s Derby is no easy task, but Z Fortune cannot afford to drop too far back off the early leaders. If he does, he might find himself in a logjam of runners, waiting for the turn for home. The middle move must be timed perfectly in order for him to pull off the upset.
Value: Z Fortune will likely go to post at the highest odds of his career, although it is unsure how the betting public will react to his latest, and vastly improved, speed figure. It is a curious thing how few of the runners in this massive field have reached the triple-digit Beyer plateau. With only one non-exacta finish to his name, Z Fortune is recommended for the superfecta frame.
Z HUMOR
Strengths: He was awarded a 96 Beyer Speed Figure while dead-heating for the win after pressing a sizzling pace in the Grade 3 Delta Jackpot. He?s earned improving Beyers this year and could be poised for a peak effort. He?s by the sire of 2003 Derby winner Funny Cide and out of an A.P. Indy mare.
Weaknesses: He was rank on the first turn in the Grade 2 Illinois Derby and then switched to his left lead nearing the sixteenth pole, before ending up third after an ideal stalking trip. His best race was in the Delta Jackpot, but the opposition was weak ? the co-winner, Turf War, finished up the track in each of his next three starts, and the third runner also came back to disappoint.
Strategy: He must rate kindly, if he?s going to have any chance traveling this far, and his rider might be wise to try to get him covered up well before they reach the first turn. The huge, noisy crowd probably won?t be to his benefit.
Value: At 70-1 or higher, he might be worth a flyer, but the fourth slot in the superfecta is about all that he has a realistic chance of attaining.
Kentucky Derby Horse-by-Horse Capsules
1. Cool Coal Man Jockey: Julien Leparoux Trainer: Nick Zito Odds: 20-1
After a surprising win in the Fountain of Youth, he tired in the stretch in finishing ninth in the Blue Grass; has four wins and second in eight career starts; could be one of the pacesetters. Zito has Derby wins with Strike the Gold (1991) and Go For Gin (1994).
2. Tale of Ekati Jockey: Eibar Coa Trainer: Barclay Tagg Odds: 15-1
Ran down one-time Derby contender War Pass in the final yards en route to winning the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 5; in two prior races to that big effort, was fourth in the Breeders? Cup Juvenile and sixth in the Louisiana Derby; has three wins and a second in six career starts.
3. Anak Nakal Jockey: Raphael Bejarano Trainer: Nick Zito Odds: 30-1
Would be surprised to see anything out of this colt; has been fifth, seventh and eighth in his last three starts; has not won since capturing the Kentucky Jockey Gold Cup on November 24, 2007; while he has struggled, Anak Nakal does have a strong pedigree; his sire, Victory Gallop, finished second in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness before foiling the Triple Crown bid of Real Quiet in 1998.
4. Court Vision Jockey: Garrett Gomez Trainer: Bill Mott Odds: 20-1
Has been a model of consistency, hitting the board in each of his six starts with three wins, one second and two thirds; came from way back to finish third in last start in the Wood Memorial; Court Vision is by Gulch, whose most memorable performance may have been his closing victory in the 1988 Breeders? Cup Sprint at Churchill Downs that ensured him the title of champion sprinter that year.
5. Eight Belles Jockey: Gabriel Saez Trainer: Larry Jones Odds: 15-1
Comes to Churchill Downs in the midst of a four-race winning streak; however, the competition this filly has faced is extremely questionable; heavily raced, with five wins, two seconds and a third in nine career starts; has shown the ability to handle two turns.
6. Z Fortune Jockey: Robby Albarado Trainer: Steve Asmussen Odds: 15-1
Endured a rough trip when he was wide throughout but made a run in the stretch to finish second to Gayego in the Arkansas Derby; has three wins and two seconds in six career starts; could surprise here with the right trip.
7. Big Truck Jockey: Javier Castellano Trainer: Barclay Tagg Odds: 50-1
Never a factor in finishing 11th in the Blue Grass; won the Tampa Derby in March; has three wins, one second and one third in eight career starts; distance may be a problem; Street Sense won from post seven last year.
8. Visionaire Jockey: Jose Lezcano Trainer: Michael Matz Odds: 20-1
Started poorly en route to finishing fifth in the Blue Grass; in his previous race, rallied in the stretch to win the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct; has three wins, one second and one third in six career starts; pedigree suggests he could struggle at this distance; Matz won the 2006 Derby with Barbaro.
9. Pyro Jockey: Shaun Bridgmohan Trainer: Steve Asmussen Odds: 6-1
Started the year in impressive fashion with wins in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby before finishing a disappointing 10th in the Blue Grass Stakes on April 12; has three wins, two seconds and a third in seven career starts; is a son of Pulpit, the 1997 Blue Grass winner who led the Kentucky Derby before fading to finish fourth behind Silver Charm.
10. Colonel John Jockey: Corey Nakatani Trainer: Eoin Harty Odds: 4-1
Rallied in the stretch to win Santa Anita Derby in final prep of April 5; also got up late to win the Sham Stakes on March 1; has four wins and two seconds in six career starts; boasts strong pedigree for 1 1/2 miles; his sire Tiznow was a 3-year-old champion and the 2000 Horse of the Year.
11. Z Humor Jockey: Rene Douglas Trainer: Bill Mott Odds: 30-1
Hard to imagine much from this colt; did hit the board when he finished third in the Illinois Derby on April 5, but was fourth at the Fountain of Youth Stakes and fifth in the Sam F. Davis Stakes in his two prior races; also was fifth in the Breeders? Cup Juvenile in October; has two wins and three thirds in eight career starts.
Big Brown buck Derby trends
As a rule, a 2-year-old maiden race on turf at Saratoga is not the launchpad for the Kentucky Derby, but trainer Rick Dutrow has never been accused of being overly concerned with the rules.
Following an improbable path that most recently featured a resounding victory in the March 29 Florida Derby, Big Brown is now among the favorites for America's most famous horse race, which is now just over one month away.
Big Brown began his career on the turf at Saratoga Sept. 3 for owner Paul Pompa and trainer Patrick Reynolds, who we hope managed to cash a ticket or two when the son of Boundary tow-roped a 10-horse field of maidens, drawing off down the stretch to win by an eye-opening 11 1/4 lengths and paying $31.40 to win.
The victory was on the Spa's closing-day card, when the Bill Mott-trained Majestic Warrior won the featured Hopeful Stakes by 2 1/4 lengths and moved to the forefront of early contenders for the 2008 Kentucky Derby.
Both horses attracted the attention of some of the industry's most discerning eyes. John Magnier's Coolmore operation, always on the lookout for future stallion prospects, cut a deal with New York Yankees boss George Steinbrenner, Majestic Warrior's owner and breeder, to buy a half-interest in the son of A.P. Indy shortly after that Grade 1 triumph. No price was disclosed, but the buzz around the deal put the value of the colt well in excess of $20 million. Majestic Warrior remained under the care of Mott, who despite his Hall of Fame credentials has never had a serious candidate for the Kentucky Derby.
Less than two weeks after his maiden win, a majority interest in Big Brown was purchased by IEAH Stables and the colt was turned over to Dutrow, who would likely need to climb over a number of dead bodies before joining Mott in the Hall of Fame at the National Museum of Racing in Saratoga Springs, N.Y. Big Brown's price was not disclosed, either, but it most assuredly was far less than what Coolmore paid for its half interest in Majestic Warrior.
Since Sept. 3, Big Brown has taken both of his subsequent starts: an off-the-turf mile allowance race March 5 at Gulfstream Park that he won by 12 3/4 lengths, and the Florida Derby, which resulted in a five-length wire-to-wire victory.
Majestic Warrior, on the other hand, has gone 0-for-3 since being sold, failing to hit the board and suffering double-digit losses in the Champagne, Louisiana Derby, and Florida Derby.
Big Brown has been plagued with quarter cracks in two feet that caused Dutrow to detour him from his original goals: the Pilgrim Stakes on the turf at Belmont last Sept. 29 and the inaugural Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf at Monmouth Park Oct. 26. But after some time off, the colt began picking up his feet in miraculous fashion while training at Palm Meadows in South Florida this winter, even outworking the graded stakes winner Diamond Stripes on one occasion. The latter, incidentally, buoyed Big Brown's Florida Derby chances when he won the Group 1 Godolphin Mile on the Dubai World Cup program earlier in the day March 29.
Following Big Brown's huge allowance win at Gulfstream, Dutrow and the IEAH management team decided to point the colt for the Florida Derby, which came up weak and included only two graded stakes winners: the aforementioned Majestic Warrior and Grade 2 Hutcheson Stakes winner Smooth Air.
Big Brown overcame the outside post position in the field of 12, with jockey Kent Desormeaux gunning the colt toward the front in a very short run to the first turn. He set extremely fast fractions and kept on going without ever being serious threatened. If Dutrow and his veterinarian can keep Big Brown healthy, the colt will be a serious threat to win the Kentucky Derby, despite his relative lack of racing experience.
Dutrow has plenty of big-time experience, having won three Breeders' Cup races, including the 2005 Classic with Horse of the Year Saint Liam. The 48-year-old son of the late Maryland trainer Dick Dutrow has had several run-ins with racing officials, however, and served a 60-day suspension in 2005 for breaking medication and claiming rules. Last year, he was suspended 14 days for violating the terms of that 2005 suspension.
For owners who want results, Dutrow is as good as they come. He is consistently ranked among the trainers with the highest winning percentage, and has a knack for moving horses up after acquiring them from other trainers.
You might not like Rick Dutrow, but you've got to respect his chances to break through May 3 with Big Brown in the Kentucky Derby.
ADRIANO:
Strengths: He might be one of the best candidates to get the mile and a quarter on Saturday. He has never raced at less than 1 1/16 miles in his seven career starts, giving him a good foundation for the distance demands. He also is a fresh horse, as he will be making his first start since his March 22 win in the Grade 2 Lane?s End on Polytrack at Turfway Park. Edgar Prado, who won the Kentucky Derby in 2006 with Barbaro, partnered with Adriano for the first time in the Lane?s End and has chosen to stick with him over Grade 1 Blue Grass winner Monba.
Weaknesses: He has not won on conventional dirt. In his one start on it, he finished ninth in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park, a 1 1/8-mile race that went in a modest time of 1:50. As for his Lane?s End, the effort was not flattered by runner-up Halo Najib nor third-place finisher Medjool, who came back in their next starts to run a respective seventh and eighth in the Blue Grass.
Strategy: Adriano needs a ground-saving trip Saturday, as well as good pace up front to fuel his late run. It appears the fractions should be honest, at the very least, courtesy of such quick rivals as Big Brown, Bob Black Jack, Gayego, Recapturetheglory, and perhaps the filly Eight Belles.
Value: Adriano needs a ground-saving trip Saturday, as well as good pace up front to fuel his late run. It appears the fractions should be honest, at the very least, courtesy of such quick rivals as Big Brown, Bob Black Jack, Gayego, Recapturetheglory, and perhaps the filly Eight Belles.
Anak Nakal
Strengths: He has moved forward in his last two starts and could be coming up to a peak effort in the Derby. Sharp half-mile work here April 25 is another positive sign that he could be coming around at just the right time. He ran the best race of his career here as a 2-year-old, and from the looks of his latest work, he appears to thrive on this surface. His pedigree is a big plus as it strongly suggests that 10 furlongs will be well within his range.
Weaknesses: The Wood set up perfectly for him, but despite a painfully slow final eighth, he wasn?t able to make much of an impact in the stretch. That was also a pretty weak field he beat in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club last year, and he really hasn?t proved that he can compete with the top horses in this division. His career-best Beyer Figure is also quite a bit below what the prominent players in the field have posted.
Strategy: He did show a bit more tactical speed the last time he ran here, and with the sharp work on display, Leparoux should have him a bit closer than he was in the Wood.
Value: The price is going to be deservedly huge, and I won?t have any tickets with him on top. The ?all? option for the bottom half of the exotics is the only place I will consider using him in any of my tickets.
BIG BROWN
Strengths: Appears to be the fastest 3-year-old based on his Florida Derby romp, where he paired up 106 Beyer Speed Figures. Accomplished his graded stakes debut victory from impossible post position 12. Had a brilliant workout after the Florida Derby. Kent Desormeaux seeks his third Kentucky Derby-winning ride (2 for 14), while trainer Richard Dutrow Jr. has been full of confidence about the colt, sold for $3 million after winning his career debut by more than 11 lengths on the Saratoga turf. ?If he breaks clean, it?s a mismatch to me on paper, said Dutrow.
Weaknesses: Like Curlin, who entered last year?s Derby 3 for 3 and finished third, Big Brown gives away racing experience and seasoning to the field. Having only two races as a 3-year-old worked out well for Street Sense last year, but 3-year-olds with only two prep races are 2 for the last 55. Has never been worse than second at the first call in any of his three races, and a quick start from the gate is a must. The 1915 Derby winner, Regret, is the last runner to win with just three career races before the Derby ? interesting that the Derby was just the first race of her 3-year-old season. He also enters off more than a 30-day layoff; Barbaro was able to accomplish the feat, but he was the first to win the Derby off a similar layoff since Needles in 1956.
Strategy: Wants to be on or near the lead; clearly having the 2-year-old champion and super-fast-from-the-gate War Pass not in this race has to help his pace chances. He sat just off the lead in his Gulfstream allowance laugher, but was used early through strong fractions from a difficult draw in the Florida Derby, but then kept on going and going, opening up the advantage with every stride; should be a force from start to finish.
Value: The betting favorite in a 20-horse wagering event means you get a better price than the typical chalk. The betting favorite never used to win the Kentucky Derby, but last year Street Sense was the favored winner, and in 2004 Smarty Jones was the bettors? choice (2 for last 4). Considering the trainer stated he?s going ?all in,? and since he looked unbeatable in the Florida Derby with the best Beyer Speed Figures in the field, he projects to be the biggest-bet Derby favorite since 2000, when Big Brown?s rider Desormeaux won with 2.60-1 Fusaichi Pegasus.
BIG TRUCK
Strengths: Here?s a New York-bred trained by Barclay Tagg ? ring a bell? Trainer of Funny Cide, the 2003 Derby hero, saddles this runner who began his career in promising fashion in New York. Colt?s only open-company win came in a Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby best remembered for champion War Pass?s major flop as the 1-20 favorite. Respect the fact that he has learned to rate/finish effectively at 3, and if many can dismiss Pyro?s Blue Grass defeat on Polytrack, why can?t they do the same for Big Truck when he was also making his synthetic-surface debut?
Weaknesses: Since beginning his career with two victories over fellow statebreds, Big Truck has yet to deliver upon the confidence expressed by his trainer early on. The Blue Grass 11th-place finisher will be ridden by Javier Castellano as regular rider Eibar Coa opts for the barn?s other Derby starter, Tale of Ekati. Tampa Bay Derby score can be criticized since War Pass simply didn?t fire and the runner he outgamed (Atoned) came back to finish off the board in both the Lexington (8th) and Illinois Derby (4th).
Strategy: A slow pace appears essential for this Derby longshot to contend. Castellano will likely look to establish forward position in fourth or fifth, perhaps three or four lengths off the lead, and hope to grind out a piece of the $2 million purse by getting the jump on the deep closers.
Value: Big Truck will be a longer price than stablemate Tale of Ekati, perhaps in the neighborhood of 40-1. Those projecting a soft pace and fast footing may bank on him injecting value into the trifecta or superfecta, although an outright upset appears out of reach.
Bob Black Jack
Strengths: He?s fast and has shown he can carry it. He was fast enough to set a six-furlong track record at Santa Anita this winter, but classy and versatile enough to be a close second going 1 1/8 miles in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby.
Weaknesses: While he?s got speed, if they try to be up on the pace things could get dicey as there?s plenty of other zip signed up. His three wins have all come sprinting, so while he?s run well in his two routes he remains winless routing. As with a few other West Coast raiders, this will mark his first attempt on a traditional dirt surface.
Strategy: He?s got speed, to be sure, and his natural speed has had him right up on the pace. In the Santa Anita Derby his speed had him pressing the issue, but he showed he could settle and maintain a nice gallop. That left him with gas in the tank to continue on well for a fine Santa Anita Derby finish. Even so, he?ll need to save a lot as furlong No. 10, particularly if he prompts a brisk pace, could get a little tough for him.
Value: Seems to be very much under the radar, despite some quality work and his proximity to Colonel John at the end of the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby (beaten just a half-length). Despite that he figures to be ignored in the wagering and could easily be over 20-1 despite a number of items on the asset side of his ledger.
Colonel John
Strengths: His is without question the leader of the West Coast ranks, having won the Grade 3 Sham and Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. He?s bred to relish this trip ? sire Tiznow was a two-time winner of the Grade 1 Breeders? Cup Classic at 1 1/4 miles and damsire Turkoman was a champion handicap horse who did his best work at 10 furlongs. While there are questions about his ability to handle this surface, he dispelled much of that with a dizzying 57.80-second breeze here Monday.
Weaknesses: He has never raced on dirt, but he is bred for it and has handled the Churchill track well in the mornings. He also has just two preps as a 3-year-old ? only two of the last 53 to try that have won the Derby ? Sunny?s Halo and Street Sense.
Strategy: While he usually sits back and make a run, his Sham win, when he was right up on the pace, albeit a slow one, shows he?s not a one-dimensional deep closer. He sprinted quite nicely at age 2, showing speed on those occasions so that versatility gives rider Corey Nakatani a chance to get position where he pleases, likely in midpack.
Value: His bandwagon has gotten a bit more crowded in recent weeks, particularly off his strong works since the Santa Anita Derby. He may still be second choice behind Big Brown, probably around 5-1, so don?t expect to get rich if he win . . . unless you get the right ones into those exotic supporting spots.
COOL COAL MAN
Strengths: Owns a win over the Churchill main track, and that was one of his better efforts. That was an entry-level allowance but he beat Derby hopeful Recapturetheglory in that one, and he did it despite race-long pressure on the lead. He threw in a clunker in his latest but Keeneland's synthetic surface provides an easy excuse, and that sharp work on April 24 indicates he?s in fine form, fueling the theory that he just didn?t handle the track in the Blue Grass. The 98 Beyer he earned in the Fountain of Youth two back gives him strong credibility and his trainer knows how to win this race.
Weaknesses: Best Beyers have come at Gulfstream, and that includes his top effort in terms of figures, when he won the Fountain of Youth with the aid of a perfect trip. He comes off a weak effort in the Blue Grass, his first try against Grade 1 company, and that was despite a forward trip on top of some slow fractions. He likes to be close-up early on, and if there are quick fractions in the Derby that could cost him, because he?s unlikely to stave off the closers if he?s asked to stay close to a up-tempo pace.
Strategy: Hasn?t shown that he can come from well out of it, and at this extended distance he figures to be involved early, stalking the leaders. He will look to get first run on the leaders, before the closers begin mounting a stretch try.
Value: That dull Blue Grass try in his latest ensures a playable price in the Derby but he figures to have a tough time lasting late after pushing the likes of Big Brown from the start.
Court Vision
Strengths: He has been tested for class, as he exits the Grade 1 Wood Memorial in which he finished a close third to Tale of Ekati and 2-year-old champion War Pass. He also brings surface success to the table. In his lone start at Churchill Downs, he won the Grade 3 Iroquois. Court Vision?s consistency also stands out. He has won 3 of 6 career starts, and has never finished worse than third. His wins include the Grade 2 Remsen at 1 1/8 miles at Aqueduct last November. Just two months later, the prominent ownership group IEAH Stable bought an interest in the colt, who will be ridden by Eclipse Award winner Garrett Gomez.
Weaknesses: He is a closer, making him dependent on pace and a decent trip in the large field of 20. He also has yet to crack triple digits on the Beyer Speed Figure scale, with the career-best 90 he earned in the Wood rating 16 points lower than the 106 earned by probable Kentucky Derby favorite Big Brown in his final prep, the Florida Derby.
Strategy: He could get a great pace to run at down Churchill?s long stretch, thanks to front-runners Big Brown, Bob Black Jack, Gayego, Recapturetheglory, and perhaps the filly Eight Belles.
Value: There is reason to believe he could be coming into a peak race for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott in his third start off the layoff. But win backers should get good value on him with the betting focus expected to be on horses who won major preps in their final starts before the Kentucky Derby.
COWBOY CAT
Strengths: His Blue Grass effort was fine, especially considering the two-month layoff, and his tactical speed gives him a great shot at a good trip in the big Derby field. No real doubts about his ability to get 10 furlongs, since he has ample stamina on both sides of his pedigree, and he hails from a powerhouse barn. Both works at Keeneland were strong, and he finished and galloped out strongly last Saturday. Seems to be coming up to the Derby in prime form.
Weaknesses: He has no dirt form at all, and Pletcher compounded the problem for handicappers by giving him his last two workouts on Polytrack. His Beyers are low, so he will need a breakthrough effort to be competitive, and the barn, for all its accomplishments, has yet to solve the Derby puzzle.
Strategy: Don?t really see him going to the front with other, probably superior speed in the field, but he won?t be far away in the early going and he has demonstrated a passing gear on turf. Look for him to be among the top four early, and he should be within easy striking distance when they turn for home.
Value: The fact that he is unproven on dirt and the need for a substantial Beyer boost to contend should make him upwards of 20-1, and that?s pretty enticing for a runner who has been in the exacta in 5 of 6 starts. Unlikely to win, but he could enliven the exotics
Denis of Cork
Strengths: He?s lightly raced so there?s plenty of upside to him. He returns to the scene of his debut maiden score and he has been working extremely well over the track, which gives him an edge over many of his Derby rivals. His sire was a Grade 1 winner going long and his dam?s sire, Unbridled, won the Kentucky Derby back in 1990. His jockey, Calvin Borel, won this race on Street Sense last year and is used to the hype surrounding the event.
Weaknesses: His winning streak came to an end last out in the Illinois Derby and history has shown that it?s difficult to overcome a lackluster effort in a final Kentucky Derby prep. He runs better from well off the pace and in such a big field he could find trouble as he commences his rally. He still hasn?t run very fast and will need a career best effort to have a say in the outcome.
Strategy: He is best when taken back and allowed to make one late run so he would probably be best positioned towards the outside to avoid traffic. While the pace doesn?t figure to be too quick, it should be contested and that will help his late kick.
Value: He figures to be in the neighborhood of 30-1, watch is a far cry from the even-money price at which he was offered in the Illinois Derby. A case can be made that he will be better in his return to Churchill and if the change in scenery does indeed perk him up then he will represent excellent value.
Eight Belles
Strengths: She is in the midst of a four-race win streak, during which she earned an average Beyer Speed Figure of 96.5. Like the other fillies who have won the Derby, she is large in stature, and she might be able to regroup if she gets bumped in the early going. Her trainer sent out Hard Spun to finish second in the 2007 Derby, so he knows the ropes.
Weaknesses: After breaking awkwardly, she was all out to collar a little-known front-runner while heavily favored in the Grade 2 Fantasy Stakes. Her two most recent scores at Oaklawn both came in small fields against mediocre opposition, and she has never faced anything close to the caliber of competition that she is about to meet. Her dam was a sprinter, and her sire was the beaten favorite in the 1996 Derby.
Strategy: She has done most of her optimum running after stalking tepid fractions, and will probably have to deal with a more taxing pace scenario in the Derby than what she?s used to. Judging by the quick fractions she set in her recent work at Churchill, her connections want don?t want her too far off the front end ? she could end up being in the first flight.
Value: Because she?s a sharp filly who has gotten plenty of media attention, she figures to be overbet in a race that has yielded just three female winners. She should be considered fair value only at more than 20-1.
GAYEGO
Strengths: His combination of speed, versatility, and gameness reminds one of Hard Spun, who had much to like at distances up to nine furlongs. Gayego passed the dirt test with flying colors in the Arkansas Derby, and he worked very well over the Churchill surface while suggesting that a wet track won?t diminish his chances. His underappreciated connections are rock-solid, and he is in sharp and improving form.
Weaknesses: His pedigree doesn?t really support the 10-furlong distance, as juvenile champion Gilded Time was a middle-distance horse at most, and he has proven to be a middle distance sire at most. His damsire won the Preakness, but mom was untried beyond 1 1/16 miles. She did win at that distance, though, and her Tomlinson number for 1 1/4 miles was an impressive 421.
Strategy: He has terrific tactical speed, and jockey Mike Smith figures to make good use of that asset by sitting just off the leader if the pace is honest. If the fractions are very fast, he?ll be just as happy five or six lengths back, and if it is unexpectedly slow he can show the way. It?s great to have a heady veteran making the decisions.
Value: The odds may not drift high enough to overcome doubts about his distance ability, and that makes him a tough sell on the win end. He is too tough to completely fall apart through the stretch, though, so we?ll include him in all of the exotics.
MONBA
Strengths: Versatility is very important in a 20-horse field, and Monba appears to be capable of either stalking or making a late move from well off the pace. You have to love his pedigree for the distance. Maria?s Mon sired the 2001 Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos, and Monba?s damsire, Easy Goer, won the Belmont. Monba also appears to be comfortable on both Polytrack and dirt, as demonstrated by his win at Churchill Downs last year. His connections are rock solid, plus trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey Ramon Dominguez teamed up to finish second with Bluegrass Cat at 30-1 in the 2006 Derby.
Weaknesses: It?s easy to see him bouncing off of his hard-fought win in the Blue Grass and his career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 92 comes up a bit light compared to some of the heavy hitters. He has had only two starts this year, and it had to set him back a little when he was injured in the Fountain of Youth.
Strategy: The pace figures to be lively, and you can expect Dominguez to try and let him settle mid-pack before making a bid approaching the quarter pole. In the unlikely event they aren?t going too fast up front, Dominguez has the option of putting him in the race a little earlier.
Value: There is a good chance he will move forward off of his strong performance in the Blue Grass, but maybe not enough to key on top. He will be prominent in all exotic tickets, and considering that the price will be generous, there will be a couple of small savers with him on top.
PYRO
Strengths: Churchill Downs debut graduate Pyro has proven he?s one of the best of his generation. He was a triple-digit Beyer-Figure runner-up to then-undefeated champion War Pass in both the Grade 1 Champagne and BC Juvenile. A son of Grade winner Pulpit, he overcame slow paces to win two graded Louisiana stakes, so he could still rally strongly if the fractions aren?t quick. He has known no rider except Shaun Bridgmohan and is handled by perennial top trainer Steve Asmussen, fresh off top-three finishes with Horse of the Year Curlin in the 2007 Triple Crown. Polytrack could be a valid excuse for his Blue Grass flop, the first off-the-board finish of his career.
Weaknesses: No trainer wants his horse entering the Derby off his worst performance, but that?s what Asmussen faces after Pyro?s 10th-place finish in the Blue Grass. Pyro lacks a nine-furlong victory and has yet to return to the Beyer heights he reached as a juvenile. This trainer/jockey combo wound up 12th with Zanjero in last year?s Derby and 15th with Private Vow in 2006.
Strategy: Pyro is likely to drop back 10 or 12 lengths off the pace under Bridgmohan before attempting to launch his patented late bid. Like all closers, especially in a 20-horse field, Pyro needs racing luck but should be moving well in the stretch if on his A game.
Value: To the dismay of those holding future pool tickets at 5-1 or less, Pyro should go be 6-1 or slightly higher. The emergence of Big Brown, and to a lesser degree Colonel John, likely relegates him to third choice. Believers in the rebound-minded late-runner will gladly take a swing at that price.
Recapturetheglory
Strengths: He ran the race of his life in capturing the Illinois Derby, but he was aided by a great rail, an outstanding ride, and even fractions. His greatest strengths may be that he ran an excellent race over the Churchill Downs surface as a juvenile and that he has shown more than one style of running. Recent breezes at Louisville are steady also.
Weaknesses: He has only the one graded stakes attempt to his name, and it is most unlikely he will be able to set or press a similar pace as was the case at Hawthorne. When forced to rate, which seems inevitable in this year?s Derby, it is doubtful that he can equal or surpass that Illinois Derby Beyer Speed Figure of 102.
Strategy: Recapturetheglory may have to deal with much swifter internal fractions on Derby Day, and that might put him at a huge disadvantage. As a result, the rider must avoid moving too early and yet, if he finds himself too far off the pacesetting brigade, he will be taking his horse out of his preferred running style.
Value: Even though he is one of the few horses in the field to crack the 100 Beyer mark, a lot of bettors will downplay Recapturetheglory?s last score because of the rail advantage he enjoyed throughout. As a result, he will be a healthy price once again. On the plus side, his experience over the Churchill surface is one of the more underrated factors in handicapping the Derby, something that cannot be underestimated. He is, therefore, worth minor use at the bottom of your exotic plans.
Smooth Air
Strengths: He is coming off his best effort yet in terms of Beyer Speed Figures, closing for the place in the Florida Derby behind Kentucky Derby favorite Big Brown. He?s in line for a career-top figure if he moves forward here, and that would put him in the hunt as far as Beyers go. Running style should suit, as the pace is likely to be quick, and if he gets a clean trip he should be picking up horses late.
Weaknesses: A slight fever the week of a race is more than a slight concern, much more so when the race is the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Bennie Stutts Jr. has been very cautious with this colt, and he wouldn?t be in the race if Stutts felt the horse was compromised. But given the fact that he would need to run the race of his life to win, this it?s certainly a concern if he?s not at his best. His best Beyer came in his last race, the Florida Derby, but he was still five lengths behind Big Brown in that one despite a fast pace up front. He?ll need to run even faster here, and though there?s speed in the race, the fractions don?t figure to be much quicker than what he got there. Two of his three wins have come over wet tracks; over dry strips, he has 1 win in 5 starts. Also, he?s winless in two starts going two turns.
Strategy: He?ll take back off the pace and hope for quick fractions and a clean trip. If he has any run, he?ll look to make use of it into the final turn.
Value: He looms a big price and is worth using in exotics, as he?s an exacta threat if there?s a pace meltdown.
Tale of Ekati
Strengths: He?s a Grade 1 stakes winner around two turns and his dam?s sire won the Kentucky Derby back in 1989. The colt resides in the Barclay Tagg barn as did 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide, so his trainer has already walked this walk successfully.
Weaknesses: He benefited from War Pass?s quick pace in the Wood Memorial and he was just able to get up through a slow final furlong in a race where no one else did much running. He?s yet to reach the Beyer Speed Figure zenith he established as a juvenile and just has not run that fast in his two starts this year. While he picks up the services of jockey Eibar Coa who has won twice on him, Edgar Prado, who had the mount in the Wood Memorial, chooses to ride elsewhere. With just two preps under his belt, the Kentucky Derby comes up rather quickly.
Strategy: His style is to sit within striking range of the leaders early, and given a clean break, he should be able to do just that here. If that type of trip does present itself, he will have every chance to prove he?s good enough to win the Kentucky Derby.
Value: While he was a mild surprise at 8-1 in the Wood Memorial, he figures to be roughly twice that price Saturday. For those who believe he?s a true Grade 1 talent, the price will suffice, and maybe he?s up to the big move forward he?ll need to win this. But given his true chances of winning, he probably won?t offer a lot of value for the wagering dollar.
Visionaire
Strengths: The trainer scored here with Barbaro. Visionaire appears to have no distance limitations based on his late-running style. He rallied from last in the Blue Grass to pass more than half the field and appeared to be screaming out for more distance. He raced too close to the pace when finishing evenly behind Pyro and Z Fortune in the Risen Star, but reverted back to his late-closing style when scoring his Gotham photo victory, posting a new Beyer Speed Figure top over a sloppy track. He is about the only one hoping for rainy skies and a less than fast track on Derby Day.
Weaknesses: Not sure what to make of this year?s edition of the Blue Grass, since so many horses just did not run their race. He rallied 10-wide from post 12 in that event. His Risen Star effort, finishing third behind Pyro and Z Fortune leads us to believe he is a ranked a notch below that group and meets a whole new set of shooters Saturday. He could get shuffled back and need traffic help being a deep closer in a 20-horse field.
Strategy: Regular rider Jose Lezcano has ridden him four straight times, so he knows him well. He obviously prefers to settle from far back and make one huge run. sometimes that works in the Derby, especially if there?s a pace meltdown, but clearly he will need a favorable trip with things breaking the right way after rallying from so far back.
Value: Has never been under 4-1 odds and was not a highly-bet commodity in the Blue Grass. He should be 30-1 odds or more on a fast track; wet-track 98 Beyer is the best in the field and soars his betting value and exotics chances if the track comes up wet.
Z FORTUNE
Strengths: He ran a personal best Beyer Speed Figure in the last placing in the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby, a strong effort considering the extra-wide path and post involved. This was a strikingly similar try to the one in the Grade 3 Risen Star when he was a close second to the well-regarded Pyro. The gray is peaking at the right time, however, and has one of the most successful trainers in the game in his corner.
Weaknesses: He has yet to compete at the Grade 1 level, a definite knock, and his recent workout pattern over the Churchill Downs surface has been modest so far (although Monday?s breeze was done effortlessly). Despite showing some gate speed early in his career, he is a confirmed midpack stylist and may be a victim of an ordinary pace in this year?s Derby. Unless he draws a much more favorable post position than in recent starts, he may have too much work to do.
Strategy: Predicting the pace in this year?s Derby is no easy task, but Z Fortune cannot afford to drop too far back off the early leaders. If he does, he might find himself in a logjam of runners, waiting for the turn for home. The middle move must be timed perfectly in order for him to pull off the upset.
Value: Z Fortune will likely go to post at the highest odds of his career, although it is unsure how the betting public will react to his latest, and vastly improved, speed figure. It is a curious thing how few of the runners in this massive field have reached the triple-digit Beyer plateau. With only one non-exacta finish to his name, Z Fortune is recommended for the superfecta frame.
Z HUMOR
Strengths: He was awarded a 96 Beyer Speed Figure while dead-heating for the win after pressing a sizzling pace in the Grade 3 Delta Jackpot. He?s earned improving Beyers this year and could be poised for a peak effort. He?s by the sire of 2003 Derby winner Funny Cide and out of an A.P. Indy mare.
Weaknesses: He was rank on the first turn in the Grade 2 Illinois Derby and then switched to his left lead nearing the sixteenth pole, before ending up third after an ideal stalking trip. His best race was in the Delta Jackpot, but the opposition was weak ? the co-winner, Turf War, finished up the track in each of his next three starts, and the third runner also came back to disappoint.
Strategy: He must rate kindly, if he?s going to have any chance traveling this far, and his rider might be wise to try to get him covered up well before they reach the first turn. The huge, noisy crowd probably won?t be to his benefit.
Value: At 70-1 or higher, he might be worth a flyer, but the fourth slot in the superfecta is about all that he has a realistic chance of attaining.
Kentucky Derby Horse-by-Horse Capsules
1. Cool Coal Man Jockey: Julien Leparoux Trainer: Nick Zito Odds: 20-1
After a surprising win in the Fountain of Youth, he tired in the stretch in finishing ninth in the Blue Grass; has four wins and second in eight career starts; could be one of the pacesetters. Zito has Derby wins with Strike the Gold (1991) and Go For Gin (1994).
2. Tale of Ekati Jockey: Eibar Coa Trainer: Barclay Tagg Odds: 15-1
Ran down one-time Derby contender War Pass in the final yards en route to winning the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 5; in two prior races to that big effort, was fourth in the Breeders? Cup Juvenile and sixth in the Louisiana Derby; has three wins and a second in six career starts.
3. Anak Nakal Jockey: Raphael Bejarano Trainer: Nick Zito Odds: 30-1
Would be surprised to see anything out of this colt; has been fifth, seventh and eighth in his last three starts; has not won since capturing the Kentucky Jockey Gold Cup on November 24, 2007; while he has struggled, Anak Nakal does have a strong pedigree; his sire, Victory Gallop, finished second in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness before foiling the Triple Crown bid of Real Quiet in 1998.
4. Court Vision Jockey: Garrett Gomez Trainer: Bill Mott Odds: 20-1
Has been a model of consistency, hitting the board in each of his six starts with three wins, one second and two thirds; came from way back to finish third in last start in the Wood Memorial; Court Vision is by Gulch, whose most memorable performance may have been his closing victory in the 1988 Breeders? Cup Sprint at Churchill Downs that ensured him the title of champion sprinter that year.
5. Eight Belles Jockey: Gabriel Saez Trainer: Larry Jones Odds: 15-1
Comes to Churchill Downs in the midst of a four-race winning streak; however, the competition this filly has faced is extremely questionable; heavily raced, with five wins, two seconds and a third in nine career starts; has shown the ability to handle two turns.
6. Z Fortune Jockey: Robby Albarado Trainer: Steve Asmussen Odds: 15-1
Endured a rough trip when he was wide throughout but made a run in the stretch to finish second to Gayego in the Arkansas Derby; has three wins and two seconds in six career starts; could surprise here with the right trip.
7. Big Truck Jockey: Javier Castellano Trainer: Barclay Tagg Odds: 50-1
Never a factor in finishing 11th in the Blue Grass; won the Tampa Derby in March; has three wins, one second and one third in eight career starts; distance may be a problem; Street Sense won from post seven last year.
8. Visionaire Jockey: Jose Lezcano Trainer: Michael Matz Odds: 20-1
Started poorly en route to finishing fifth in the Blue Grass; in his previous race, rallied in the stretch to win the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct; has three wins, one second and one third in six career starts; pedigree suggests he could struggle at this distance; Matz won the 2006 Derby with Barbaro.
9. Pyro Jockey: Shaun Bridgmohan Trainer: Steve Asmussen Odds: 6-1
Started the year in impressive fashion with wins in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby before finishing a disappointing 10th in the Blue Grass Stakes on April 12; has three wins, two seconds and a third in seven career starts; is a son of Pulpit, the 1997 Blue Grass winner who led the Kentucky Derby before fading to finish fourth behind Silver Charm.
10. Colonel John Jockey: Corey Nakatani Trainer: Eoin Harty Odds: 4-1
Rallied in the stretch to win Santa Anita Derby in final prep of April 5; also got up late to win the Sham Stakes on March 1; has four wins and two seconds in six career starts; boasts strong pedigree for 1 1/2 miles; his sire Tiznow was a 3-year-old champion and the 2000 Horse of the Year.
11. Z Humor Jockey: Rene Douglas Trainer: Bill Mott Odds: 30-1
Hard to imagine much from this colt; did hit the board when he finished third in the Illinois Derby on April 5, but was fourth at the Fountain of Youth Stakes and fifth in the Sam F. Davis Stakes in his two prior races; also was fifth in the Breeders? Cup Juvenile in October; has two wins and three thirds in eight career starts.
Richard Dutrow Continued
12. Smooth Air Jockey: Manoel Cruz Trainer: Bennie Stutts Jr. Odds: 20-1
Never was factor but was running late as he finished second in the Florida Derby, well back to Big Brown; has been consistent, hitting the board in all seven career starts with three wins, two seconds and two thirds; pedigree shows that he is not bred for 1 1/4 miles.
13. Bob Black Jack Jockey: Richard Migliore Trainer: James Kasparoff Odds: 20-1
Was the near the front from the outset before being caught by Colonel John in the final yards of the Santa Anita Derby; has hit the board in six of seven career starts, with three wins, two seconds and a third; distance should not be a problem.
14. Monba Jockey: Ramon Dominguez Trainer: Todd Pletcher Odds: 15-1
After finishing 12th in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, Monba pulled a major surprise by edging Cowboy Cal to win the Blue Grass Stakes; has three wins in five career starts; is bred to handle 1 1/4 miles. Monba is sired by Maria?s Mon, the champion 2-year-old colt of 1995 who captured the 1 1/16-mile Champagne, but missed starts in the Breeders? Cup Juvenile and the following year?s Triple Crown due to injury; Pletcher is 0-for-19 in his career in the Kentucky Derby; failed to hit the board with any of his five starters last year; Dominguez was second in the 2006 Derby aboard Bluegrass Cat.
15. Adriano Jockey: Edgar Prado Trainer: Graham Motion Odds: 30-1
Has not raced since winning the Lane?s End by 2 1/2 lengths on March 22; has three wins and a second in seven career starts; is by two-time leading sire A.P. Indy, a son of legendary Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew who hails from the terrific Secretariat mare Weekend Surprise; Prado won the 2006 Derby aboard Barbaro.
16. Denis of Cork Jockey: Calvin Borel Trainer: David Carroll Odds: 20-1
Started his career with three straight wins; never was a factor in finishing fifth in the Illinois Derby in his last start; owns a strong pedigree to handle this distance; Borel will try to make it consecutive Derby triumphs after winning last year aboard Street Sense.
17. Cowboy Cal Jockey: John Velazquez Trainer: Todd Pletcher Odds: 20-1
Set a slow pace in the Blue Grass, then held gamely in finishing second to Monba; owns three wins and two seconds in six career starts; is by Giant?s Causeway, who was nicknamed the ?Iron Horse? after he won five Group 1 races in England and Ireland within a time period of 10 weeks in the summer of 2000.
18. Recapturetheglory Jockey: E.T. Baird Trainer: Louie J. Roussel III Odds: 20-1
Pulled off a surprise with a comfortable four-length victory in the Illinois Derby on April 5; has two wins, a second and two thirds in six career starts; likely to show some early speed.
19. Gayego Jockey: Mike Smith Trainer: Paul Lobo Odds: 15-1
Solidified his credentials as a legitimate contender at Churchill Downs by winning the Arkansas Derby on April 12; was racing on a dirt track for the first time after running on Santa Anita?s synthetic surface in his previous three races; winning the Arkansas Derby also has proved a good omen; some past winners include 2007 Horse of the Year Curlin, Afleet Alex (2005 Preakness and Belmont winner) and Smarty Jones (2004 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner); has three wins and two seconds in five career starts; Smith won the 2005 Kentucky Derby aboard 50-1 long shot Giacomo.
20. Big Brown Jockey: Kent Desormeaux Trainer: Richard Dutrow Jr. Odds: 3-1
Should go off as the favorite; is 3-for-3 in his career, winning by a combined 29 lengths; starting from the far outside No. 12 post proved no obstacle, as he won the Florida Derby by five lengths on March 29; no horse from the 11th or 12th post had won a 1 1/8-race since Gulfstream was reconfigured four years ago; Desormeaux won the 2003 Kentucky Derby aboard Fusaichi Pegasus.
12. Smooth Air Jockey: Manoel Cruz Trainer: Bennie Stutts Jr. Odds: 20-1
Never was factor but was running late as he finished second in the Florida Derby, well back to Big Brown; has been consistent, hitting the board in all seven career starts with three wins, two seconds and two thirds; pedigree shows that he is not bred for 1 1/4 miles.
13. Bob Black Jack Jockey: Richard Migliore Trainer: James Kasparoff Odds: 20-1
Was the near the front from the outset before being caught by Colonel John in the final yards of the Santa Anita Derby; has hit the board in six of seven career starts, with three wins, two seconds and a third; distance should not be a problem.
14. Monba Jockey: Ramon Dominguez Trainer: Todd Pletcher Odds: 15-1
After finishing 12th in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, Monba pulled a major surprise by edging Cowboy Cal to win the Blue Grass Stakes; has three wins in five career starts; is bred to handle 1 1/4 miles. Monba is sired by Maria?s Mon, the champion 2-year-old colt of 1995 who captured the 1 1/16-mile Champagne, but missed starts in the Breeders? Cup Juvenile and the following year?s Triple Crown due to injury; Pletcher is 0-for-19 in his career in the Kentucky Derby; failed to hit the board with any of his five starters last year; Dominguez was second in the 2006 Derby aboard Bluegrass Cat.
15. Adriano Jockey: Edgar Prado Trainer: Graham Motion Odds: 30-1
Has not raced since winning the Lane?s End by 2 1/2 lengths on March 22; has three wins and a second in seven career starts; is by two-time leading sire A.P. Indy, a son of legendary Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew who hails from the terrific Secretariat mare Weekend Surprise; Prado won the 2006 Derby aboard Barbaro.
16. Denis of Cork Jockey: Calvin Borel Trainer: David Carroll Odds: 20-1
Started his career with three straight wins; never was a factor in finishing fifth in the Illinois Derby in his last start; owns a strong pedigree to handle this distance; Borel will try to make it consecutive Derby triumphs after winning last year aboard Street Sense.
17. Cowboy Cal Jockey: John Velazquez Trainer: Todd Pletcher Odds: 20-1
Set a slow pace in the Blue Grass, then held gamely in finishing second to Monba; owns three wins and two seconds in six career starts; is by Giant?s Causeway, who was nicknamed the ?Iron Horse? after he won five Group 1 races in England and Ireland within a time period of 10 weeks in the summer of 2000.
18. Recapturetheglory Jockey: E.T. Baird Trainer: Louie J. Roussel III Odds: 20-1
Pulled off a surprise with a comfortable four-length victory in the Illinois Derby on April 5; has two wins, a second and two thirds in six career starts; likely to show some early speed.
19. Gayego Jockey: Mike Smith Trainer: Paul Lobo Odds: 15-1
Solidified his credentials as a legitimate contender at Churchill Downs by winning the Arkansas Derby on April 12; was racing on a dirt track for the first time after running on Santa Anita?s synthetic surface in his previous three races; winning the Arkansas Derby also has proved a good omen; some past winners include 2007 Horse of the Year Curlin, Afleet Alex (2005 Preakness and Belmont winner) and Smarty Jones (2004 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner); has three wins and two seconds in five career starts; Smith won the 2005 Kentucky Derby aboard 50-1 long shot Giacomo.
20. Big Brown Jockey: Kent Desormeaux Trainer: Richard Dutrow Jr. Odds: 3-1
Should go off as the favorite; is 3-for-3 in his career, winning by a combined 29 lengths; starting from the far outside No. 12 post proved no obstacle, as he won the Florida Derby by five lengths on March 29; no horse from the 11th or 12th post had won a 1 1/8-race since Gulfstream was reconfigured four years ago; Desormeaux won the 2003 Kentucky Derby aboard Fusaichi Pegasus.
MICHAEL NUNAMAKER
CHURCHILL DOWNS (races 5-12)
Race #5
Proficiency: Samples=8797 W%=35.2 Net=1.88 Net4+=2.51
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
2 THOUSAND WORDS (GB) 7-2 79 87 0.00
1 ELITE SQUADRON 9-2 82 92 0.64
6 HEWITTS 8-1 79 94 1.57
4 JUNIOR COLLEGE 8-1 85 92 1.65
3 NOONMARK 10-1 75 89 2.06
8 WANDERIN BOY 11-1 76 93 2.37
7 CARNACKS CHOICE 14-1 80 90 2.76
9 SPOTSGONE 15-1 75 84 2.89
5 ISLAND WARRIOR 30-1 77 87 3.98
Commentary
THOUSAND WORDS (GB) Bid but hung in last. ELITE SQUADRON Slight back speed advantage. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. HEWITTS The recent 5F workout looks great. Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class raise will be hard. JUNIOR COLLEGE Modest pace advantage. Modest speed advantage. Long workout is almost as good as an extra race. Three consecutive good finishes. NOONMARK Three consecutive good finishes. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
Race #6
Proficiency: Samples=8797 W%=35.2 Net=1.88 Net4+=2.51
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
6 KEEP THE PEACE 3-1 78 88 0.00
4 GAME FACE 7-2 76 92 0.40
5 INFORMED DECISION 7-1 73 89 1.80
7 ALINA 7-1 69 78 1.80
2 AMERICAN COUNTY 10-1 78 92 2.48
1 SECRET GYPSY 12-1 77 94 3.07
3 COLOR ME UP 79-1 70 81 5.87
9 MINEWANDER 115-1 73 85 6.32
8 TIZ TO DREAM 121-1 65 78 6.43
Commentary
KEEP THE PEACE A well worked out horse. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating! GAME FACE Three consecutive good finishes. INFORMED DECISION The recent 5F workout looks great. Huge class raise will be hard. ALINA Modest back speed advantage. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. AMERICAN COUNTY Slight pace advantage. Modest speed advantage. Looks to have an early speed advantage. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
Race #7
Proficiency: Samples=3717 W%=30.6 Net=1.97 Net4+=2.49
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
9 DREAMING OF ANNA 3-1 84 81 0.00
8 VENTURA 9-2 76 90 0.70
3 DANZON 5-1 81 75 0.86
2 SHARP SUSAN 8-1 78 68 1.82
4 LADY CARLOCK 10-1 73 80 2.42
7 BAYOU'S LASSIE 11-1 80 82 2.60
1 YOU GO WEST GIRL 15-1 73 77 3.04
5 NEW EDITION 27-1 74 75 4.04
6 V. I. P. PRINCESS 999-1 78 87 9.99
Commentary
DREAMING OF ANNA Modest pace advantage. Three consecutive good finishes. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating! VENTURA Modest speed advantage. Three consecutive good finishes. DANZON Modest back speed advantage. Showed surprise early speed in last. Huge class raise will be hard. Three consecutive decreases in speed rating! SHARP SUSAN Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Huge class raise will be hard. LADY CARLOCK Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and this horse has it. Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class raise will be hard.
Race #8
Proficiency: Samples=8797 W%=35.2 Net=1.88 Net4+=2.51
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
1 HYSTERICALADY 6-5 77 86 0.00
5 SUGAR SWIRL 7-1 74 93 3.60
9 INTANGAROO 7-1 82 94 3.75
7 MIRACULOUS MISS 10-1 75 88 4.51
4 MISS MACY SUE 11-1 77 88 4.66
2 CHANGE UP 38-1 80 89 6.53
3 GRAEME SIX 38-1 75 88 6.58
8 BARONESS THATCHER 79-1 80 89 7.67
6 WINDYINDY 95-1 74 84 7.98
Commentary
HYSTERICALADY Slight back speed advantage. The long workout makes me feel good about this one. SUGAR SWIRL Long recent workout is a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. INTANGAROO Modest pace advantage. Modest speed advantage. Three consecutive good finishes. MIRACULOUS MISS The long workout makes me feel good about this one. Three consecutive good finishes. MISS MACY SUE The recent 5F workout looks great. Many many wins. A great sign. Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class raise will be hard.
Race #9
Proficiency: Samples=3717 W%=30.6 Net=1.97 Net4+=2.49
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
5 EINSTEIN (BRZ) 3-1 88 84 0.00
8 ARTISTE ROYAL (IRE) 6-1 88 94 1.28
2 WAR MONGER 6-1 86 87 1.33
1 OUT OF CONTROL (BRZ) 6-1 88 87 1.35
3 GOLDEN BALLS (IRE) 8-1 85 94 1.96
4 THORN SONG 11-1 88 86 2.71
7 DUVEEN 49-1 71 71 5.08
6 YATE'S BLACK CAT 77-1 80 88 5.59
Commentary
EINSTEIN (BRZ) Looks to have an early speed advantage. ARTISTE ROYAL (IRE) Slight speed advantage. Long recent workout is a good sign. Showed surprise early speed in last. Huge class raise will be hard. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. WAR MONGER Bid but hung in last. OUT OF CONTROL (BRZ) Modest back speed advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. GOLDEN BALLS (IRE) Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class raise will be hard.
Race #10
Proficiency: Samples=7664 W%=35.4 Net=1.82 Net4+=2.52
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
20 BIG BROWN 3-2 82 94 0.00
10 COLONEL JOHN 5-1 75 84 3.25
17 COWBOY CAL 11-1 83 96 4.94
19 GAYEGO 11-1 81 86 4.99
14 MONBA 17-1 75 80 5.56
9 PYRO 17-1 77 72 5.70
12 SMOOTH AIR 23-1 81 82 6.04
2 TALE OF EKATI 34-1 80 71 6.61
13 BOB BLACK JACK 48-1 83 88 7.12
6 Z FORTUNE 64-1 74 78 7.46
4 COURT VISION 88-1 76 86 7.88
5 EIGHT BELLES 111-1 74 77 8.15
8 VISIONAIRE 162-1 72 51 8.55
18 RECAPTURETHEGLORY 181-1 77 73 8.73
1 COOL COAL MAN 233-1 81 83 9.02
11 Z HUMOR 551-1 76 80 9.91
16 DENIS OF CORK 580-1 75 79 9.99
7 BIG TRUCK 779-1 78 84 10.29
3 ANAK NAKAL 999-1 81 82 11.01
15 ADRIANO 999-1 75 89 11.16
Commentary
BIG BROWN Modest speed advantage. Modest back speed advantage. Three consecutive good finishes. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. COLONEL JOHN The recent 5F workout looks great. Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class raise will be hard. COWBOY CAL Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and this horse has it. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class raise will be hard. GAYEGO Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. MONBA Long workout is almost as good as an extra race. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Showed surprise early speed in last. Huge class raise will be hard.
Race #11
Proficiency: Samples=7664 W%=35.4 Net=1.82 Net4+=2.52
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
1 SOLEMN PROMISE 7-2 71 81 0.00
4 ADMIRALITY 7-1 80 89 1.55
10 SONOMA CAT 8-1 75 78 1.70
11 TIZ NOW TIZ THEN 9-1 76 77 1.83
12 EVADE 10-1 77 73 2.14
Commentary
SOLEMN PROMISE Modest back speed advantage. You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts. Three consecutive decreases in speed rating! ADMIRALITY Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. SONOMA CAT Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed advantage. TIZ NOW TIZ THEN You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating! EVADE Was closer to the lead in last. Three consecutive good finishes.
Race #12
Proficiency: Samples=4753 W%=34.9 Net=1.99 Net4+=2.14
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
3 PIOUS ASHLEY 3-1 76 85 0.00
10 QUIET MOVER 4-1 76 87 0.80
5 MAIARA 5-1 77 90 1.17
12 WIND ME UP 8-1 79 90 2.08
8 DREAM RIDE 16-1 72 82 3.60
Commentary
PIOUS ASHLEY Speed advantage. QUIET MOVER No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Bid but hung in last. MAIARA Back speed advantage. Long workout is almost as good as an extra race. WIND ME UP Pace advantage
CHURCHILL DOWNS (races 5-12)
Race #5
Proficiency: Samples=8797 W%=35.2 Net=1.88 Net4+=2.51
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
2 THOUSAND WORDS (GB) 7-2 79 87 0.00
1 ELITE SQUADRON 9-2 82 92 0.64
6 HEWITTS 8-1 79 94 1.57
4 JUNIOR COLLEGE 8-1 85 92 1.65
3 NOONMARK 10-1 75 89 2.06
8 WANDERIN BOY 11-1 76 93 2.37
7 CARNACKS CHOICE 14-1 80 90 2.76
9 SPOTSGONE 15-1 75 84 2.89
5 ISLAND WARRIOR 30-1 77 87 3.98
Commentary
THOUSAND WORDS (GB) Bid but hung in last. ELITE SQUADRON Slight back speed advantage. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. HEWITTS The recent 5F workout looks great. Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class raise will be hard. JUNIOR COLLEGE Modest pace advantage. Modest speed advantage. Long workout is almost as good as an extra race. Three consecutive good finishes. NOONMARK Three consecutive good finishes. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
Race #6
Proficiency: Samples=8797 W%=35.2 Net=1.88 Net4+=2.51
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
6 KEEP THE PEACE 3-1 78 88 0.00
4 GAME FACE 7-2 76 92 0.40
5 INFORMED DECISION 7-1 73 89 1.80
7 ALINA 7-1 69 78 1.80
2 AMERICAN COUNTY 10-1 78 92 2.48
1 SECRET GYPSY 12-1 77 94 3.07
3 COLOR ME UP 79-1 70 81 5.87
9 MINEWANDER 115-1 73 85 6.32
8 TIZ TO DREAM 121-1 65 78 6.43
Commentary
KEEP THE PEACE A well worked out horse. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating! GAME FACE Three consecutive good finishes. INFORMED DECISION The recent 5F workout looks great. Huge class raise will be hard. ALINA Modest back speed advantage. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. AMERICAN COUNTY Slight pace advantage. Modest speed advantage. Looks to have an early speed advantage. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
Race #7
Proficiency: Samples=3717 W%=30.6 Net=1.97 Net4+=2.49
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
9 DREAMING OF ANNA 3-1 84 81 0.00
8 VENTURA 9-2 76 90 0.70
3 DANZON 5-1 81 75 0.86
2 SHARP SUSAN 8-1 78 68 1.82
4 LADY CARLOCK 10-1 73 80 2.42
7 BAYOU'S LASSIE 11-1 80 82 2.60
1 YOU GO WEST GIRL 15-1 73 77 3.04
5 NEW EDITION 27-1 74 75 4.04
6 V. I. P. PRINCESS 999-1 78 87 9.99
Commentary
DREAMING OF ANNA Modest pace advantage. Three consecutive good finishes. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating! VENTURA Modest speed advantage. Three consecutive good finishes. DANZON Modest back speed advantage. Showed surprise early speed in last. Huge class raise will be hard. Three consecutive decreases in speed rating! SHARP SUSAN Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Huge class raise will be hard. LADY CARLOCK Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and this horse has it. Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class raise will be hard.
Race #8
Proficiency: Samples=8797 W%=35.2 Net=1.88 Net4+=2.51
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
1 HYSTERICALADY 6-5 77 86 0.00
5 SUGAR SWIRL 7-1 74 93 3.60
9 INTANGAROO 7-1 82 94 3.75
7 MIRACULOUS MISS 10-1 75 88 4.51
4 MISS MACY SUE 11-1 77 88 4.66
2 CHANGE UP 38-1 80 89 6.53
3 GRAEME SIX 38-1 75 88 6.58
8 BARONESS THATCHER 79-1 80 89 7.67
6 WINDYINDY 95-1 74 84 7.98
Commentary
HYSTERICALADY Slight back speed advantage. The long workout makes me feel good about this one. SUGAR SWIRL Long recent workout is a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. INTANGAROO Modest pace advantage. Modest speed advantage. Three consecutive good finishes. MIRACULOUS MISS The long workout makes me feel good about this one. Three consecutive good finishes. MISS MACY SUE The recent 5F workout looks great. Many many wins. A great sign. Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class raise will be hard.
Race #9
Proficiency: Samples=3717 W%=30.6 Net=1.97 Net4+=2.49
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
5 EINSTEIN (BRZ) 3-1 88 84 0.00
8 ARTISTE ROYAL (IRE) 6-1 88 94 1.28
2 WAR MONGER 6-1 86 87 1.33
1 OUT OF CONTROL (BRZ) 6-1 88 87 1.35
3 GOLDEN BALLS (IRE) 8-1 85 94 1.96
4 THORN SONG 11-1 88 86 2.71
7 DUVEEN 49-1 71 71 5.08
6 YATE'S BLACK CAT 77-1 80 88 5.59
Commentary
EINSTEIN (BRZ) Looks to have an early speed advantage. ARTISTE ROYAL (IRE) Slight speed advantage. Long recent workout is a good sign. Showed surprise early speed in last. Huge class raise will be hard. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. WAR MONGER Bid but hung in last. OUT OF CONTROL (BRZ) Modest back speed advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. GOLDEN BALLS (IRE) Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class raise will be hard.
Race #10
Proficiency: Samples=7664 W%=35.4 Net=1.82 Net4+=2.52
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
20 BIG BROWN 3-2 82 94 0.00
10 COLONEL JOHN 5-1 75 84 3.25
17 COWBOY CAL 11-1 83 96 4.94
19 GAYEGO 11-1 81 86 4.99
14 MONBA 17-1 75 80 5.56
9 PYRO 17-1 77 72 5.70
12 SMOOTH AIR 23-1 81 82 6.04
2 TALE OF EKATI 34-1 80 71 6.61
13 BOB BLACK JACK 48-1 83 88 7.12
6 Z FORTUNE 64-1 74 78 7.46
4 COURT VISION 88-1 76 86 7.88
5 EIGHT BELLES 111-1 74 77 8.15
8 VISIONAIRE 162-1 72 51 8.55
18 RECAPTURETHEGLORY 181-1 77 73 8.73
1 COOL COAL MAN 233-1 81 83 9.02
11 Z HUMOR 551-1 76 80 9.91
16 DENIS OF CORK 580-1 75 79 9.99
7 BIG TRUCK 779-1 78 84 10.29
3 ANAK NAKAL 999-1 81 82 11.01
15 ADRIANO 999-1 75 89 11.16
Commentary
BIG BROWN Modest speed advantage. Modest back speed advantage. Three consecutive good finishes. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. COLONEL JOHN The recent 5F workout looks great. Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class raise will be hard. COWBOY CAL Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and this horse has it. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class raise will be hard. GAYEGO Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. MONBA Long workout is almost as good as an extra race. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Showed surprise early speed in last. Huge class raise will be hard.
Race #11
Proficiency: Samples=7664 W%=35.4 Net=1.82 Net4+=2.52
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
1 SOLEMN PROMISE 7-2 71 81 0.00
4 ADMIRALITY 7-1 80 89 1.55
10 SONOMA CAT 8-1 75 78 1.70
11 TIZ NOW TIZ THEN 9-1 76 77 1.83
12 EVADE 10-1 77 73 2.14
Commentary
SOLEMN PROMISE Modest back speed advantage. You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts. Three consecutive decreases in speed rating! ADMIRALITY Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. SONOMA CAT Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed advantage. TIZ NOW TIZ THEN You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating! EVADE Was closer to the lead in last. Three consecutive good finishes.
Race #12
Proficiency: Samples=4753 W%=34.9 Net=1.99 Net4+=2.14
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
3 PIOUS ASHLEY 3-1 76 85 0.00
10 QUIET MOVER 4-1 76 87 0.80
5 MAIARA 5-1 77 90 1.17
12 WIND ME UP 8-1 79 90 2.08
8 DREAM RIDE 16-1 72 82 3.60
Commentary
PIOUS ASHLEY Speed advantage. QUIET MOVER No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Bid but hung in last. MAIARA Back speed advantage. Long workout is almost as good as an extra race. WIND ME UP Pace advantage
On Track
Johnny D
KENTUCKY DERBY ANALYSIS
Any analysis of this year?s Kentucky Derby has to begin with the favorite Big Brown and his pluses and minuses. We?re taking a stand against him on the win end of things based upon his inexperience and outside post position (see Big Brown analysis below for more). So, we are then left with the question: If we don?t like Big Brown, who do we like?
We rank Colonel John, Pyro and Denis of Cork as horses we expect to run well. We also give long looks to Visionaire and Court Vision as horses that might outrun their odds to get a piece of the exotics. Will we ignore Big Brown? No. Not if we learned anything from last year?s Derby when we left a horse named Curlin off our tickets because we didn?t think he could win the race. We were right in one respect, but painfully wrong when it came to the three-hole in the Superfecta. We?ll include Big Brown somewhere on our tickets.
Suggested $1 Derby Superfecta ($84)
First: 9, 10
Second: 9, 10, 16
Third: 8, 9, 10, 16, 20
Fourth: 1, 3, 4, 6, 8, 9, 10, 15, 16, 20
Below is a horse-by-horse look at this year?s Kentucky Derby lineup in post position order with morning-line odds. And remember, opinions are like noses?everybody?s got one.
1-COOL COAL MAN (20-1)
Positives: He defeated Elysium Fields and Court Vision in the Fountain of Youth. That effort put him squarely in the Derby picture. He then ran poorly over Polytrack in his next start in the Blue Grass. Toss that race out and he?s a legitimate contender. He also has a win at Churchill Downs.
Negatives: Even if you ignore the poor Blue Grass performance, Cool Coal Man still has just one stakes win. That shouldn?t be good enough to win the Derby.
Analysis: Cool Coal Man has a stalking running style that seems to fit in this year?s Derby, but just like with fans of Pyro this one will have to be forgiven off a poor Blue Grass effort. He can be used in the fourth spot in Supers and in other exotic wagers at a big price, however.
2- TALE OF EKATI (15-1)
Positives: He broke through with a Grade I win in the Wood Memorial over 2-year-old champ War Pass. He has a grinding, even-paced style which should be effective in the Derby.
Negatives: He really didn?t step up as a 3-year-old until the Wood. That suggests he may not be as talented as the foes he?ll meet in the Derby. The Wood win was a perfect set-up race for him as War Pass was hooked on the early pace and figured to fade at the end. ?Ekati was in the right spot, that?s it. Jockey Edgar Prado passed on this mount for the Derby and chose to ride the untested Adriano instead.
Analysis: ?Ekati is a steady runner with credentials to be around for a minor spot. It?s hard to imagine him actually winning or finishing second. He just doesn?t seem talented enough. The pace picture favors him picking up some pieces at the end, though. Limit his use to Super tickets only, if that.
3- ANAK NAKAL (30-1)
Positives: He won a Grade II stakes at Churchill as a 2-year-old around two turns.
Negatives: Anak Nakal has been unspectacular in three starts this season, including one with blinkers last out.
Analysis: We?ll pass on this one in the prime spots and may use him only in the fourth hole.
4- COURT VISION (20-1)
Positives: He has won half of his starts?three for six?and seems to be coming into form right now. He should be closing at the end of the Derby while picking up some tired foes. His closing style may work well as the Derby figures to have a contested early pace. He was too far back in the Fountain of Youth and then didn?t handle a drying out track in the Wood. He won the Iroquois at Churchill last year around one turn. He will add blinkers for the Derby and had an uncharacteristically fast recent work at Churchill.
Negatives: Court Vision has had just two races this season and, while he?s closed ground in each of those races, neither was very impressive. He never has run a really fast race.
Analysis: Court Vision is a longshot to win the Derby. He just hasn?t done enough to be considered a legitimate challenger on the ?win? end. However, his closing style should give him a chance at hitting the bottom slots in Supers and Tris. Trainer Bill Mott and a patient ride from Garrett Gomez give this one a fighting chance to hit the exotic ticket at a big price.
5- EIGHT BELLES (20-1)
Positives: She?s a talented filly in a year with a less-than-stellar group of colts. She has won five of nine races, including her last four starts. Her connections plan to enter her in the Oaks and Derby, and if they choose to run in the Derby you know they?re serious about her chances. She?s big, strong and fast.
Negatives: Fillies seldom win the Kentucky Derby. Despite her outstanding record against her sex, the Kentucky Derby represents a completely different challenge. She has never raced past a mile and one-sixteenth and will be asked to go a mile and one-quarter in the Derby. Her running style should have her in the second flight and she?ll really have to kick it in to pass the colts in the lane. She also lugged in while winning her last race.
Analysis: We?ll have to challenge her to beat us. She?s a top filly, no doubt, but facing colts at a mile and one-quarter is another matter.
6- Z FORTUNE (15-1)
Positives: He ran well to finish second to Gayego in the Arkansas Derby and a repeat of that effort figures to put him in the Derby mix. He was wide on both turns while the winner saved ground. His second to Pyro in the Risen Star also was a good try.
Negatives: Z Fortune?s Arkansas Derby effort was so much better than anything else he?s done in his career that it?s difficult to expect him to repeat it on Derby day. Pyro ran by him like he was standing still in the Risen Star earlier this year.
Analysis: What to do with Z Fortune is a real problem. He?s in good form, that?s for sure, but can he duplicate his Arkansas Derby effort in the Kentucky version? We?re going to use him in the minor spots in exotics and leave him off the ?win? end of things.
7- BIG TRUCK (50-1)
Positives: He upset the Tampa Bay Derby field when War Pass failed to fire and he was second in the Sam F. Davis, also at Tampa Bay, just before that. Toss his poor effort in the Blue Grass over Polytrack.
Negatives: His early success came against fellow New York-breds before he was fourth to Court Vision in the Remsen. He finished lapped on Smooth Air when second in the Sam F. Davis, and outlasted Atoned in the Tampa Bay Derby. Neither of those runners are listed as ?ones to beat? in here.
Analysis: Overall Big Truck would need to step up his game to compete for the major spots in this race. He?s another we?ll look to leave off of our tickets.
8- VISIONAIRE (20-1)
Positives: He?s coming up to this race nicely with a win in the Gotham Stakes before a well-beaten fifth in the Blue Grass over Poly. He was third to Pyro in the Risen Star before the Gotham win. He comes from off the pace and that?s a good place to be in this year?s Derby.
Negatives: Although he has a Grade III win and third-place finish to his credit, he really hasn?t faced top competition in his career.
Analysis: If you?re looking for a nice-priced runner to use in Supers and Tris, this could be your guy. He has a great closing style, which should work well in the Derby and he?s been improving nicely for trainer Michael Matz, who conditioned Barbaro to win the Derby two years ago.
9-PYRO 6-1
Positives: He?s won three of seven starts and over $1 million in purses. Based on two strong wins in the Risen Star and Lousiana Derby he was the early-season favorite to win the Derby. However, the emergence of Big Brown and a subsequent flat performance by Pyro in the Blue Grass at Keeneland saw support diminish for the son of Pulpit. Pyro is trained by Steve Asmussen (one of the best in the business) likes Churchill Downs (where he broke his maiden in his first start) and was second to 2-year-old champ War Pass twice last year, including once in the Breeders? Cup Juvenile.
Negatives: His Blue Grass performance at Keeneland was uninspiring. Some will dismiss Pyro solely based on that race. Critics also argue that his Beyer speed figures from this year are too slow to win the Derby. Historically, it has been nearly impossible for a horse who finished worse than fourth to come back to win the Derby in his next start.
Analysis: Pyro?s?s a definite ?use? on our ticket. Forgiving handicappers will toss the Blue Grass based on the assumption that Pyro didn?t handle Polytrack. During the Keeneland meeting, some horses failed to make the transition from dirt or other synthetic surfaces to that particular artificial surface. Pyro?s talented, battled-tested and capable of winning this race. There should be plenty of pace for him to stalk and he?s shown a decent late kick. If you ignore the Blue Grass at Keeneland, it?s hard to imagine Pyro off the board based on his credentials.
10- COLONEL JOHN (4-1)
Positives: Four wins in six starts and $825k in earnings say it all. He won the Santa Anita Derby in his last start and should have no trouble handling the mile-and-one-quarter Derby distance. He will be making his first start on dirt after racing on synthetic surfaces in California, but several runners have made a successful transition to dirt recently and there?s no reason to think John won?t do it too. California form seems to have held up well in the prep races. He worked in :57 and change over the Churchill surface and trained over it as a 2-year-old.
Negatives: There?s the previously-mentioned surface switch, for starters. How do we really know he?ll handle dirt? He also inexplicably dropped back a bit on the final turn in the Santa Anita Derby before rallying to win. A temporary lapse in concentration like that in the Derby will be difficult to overcome.
Analysis: Colonel John has so many things going for him that?s it?s impossible to toss him from the picture. He?s by Tiznow, won the Santa Anita Derby and should be in a great mid-pack position. Count him ?in? whatever you do.
11- Z HUMOR (30-1)
Positives: He dead-heated for the win in the Delta Jackpot and is trained by Bill Mott, a top conditioner.
Negatives: He has just two wins in eight lifetime starts and hasn?t really stepped up yet against top competition. Other than in the Delta Jackpot he hasn?t distinguished himself.
Analysis: We?ll pass on this one.
12- SMOOTH AIR (20-1)
Positives: He finished a well-beaten second to Big Brown in the Florida Derby, but was seven and one-half lengths in front of the third horse Tomcito. He?s had plenty of experience and is bred to get the distance.
Negatives: He recently battled a slight fever and despite the fact that his 70-year-old trainer says the horse is fine, that?s not a good sign going into the Kentucky Derby. Other than his runner-up effort to Big Brown, he hasn?t faced any of the top contenders.
Analysis: Smooth Air was on the improve heading into the Florida Derby and figured to run well that day. He?s a hard-knocking type we would have really liked to round out the exotic spots before he got sick in Louisville. How much will the fever take out of him? We?ll guess enough to keep him out of the top three spots at least.
13- BOB BLACK JACK (20-1)
Positives: He finished right with Colonel John in the Santa Anita Derby and alongside Gayego in the San Felipe?both highly-regarded foes in decent races. He is tough and game in the lane and will give you everything he?s got to the wire.
Negatives: Bob Black Jack?s running style is a real problem in this race. He likes to go to the lead and battle it out in the stretch. That?s going to be difficult with several other speed horses signed on. Also, there?s lots of doubt about how far this one wants to run. A mile and one-quarter figures to be out of his reach. We?ll keep him off our tickets.
14- MONBA (15-1)
Positives: Pulled off a nice upset in the Blue Grass to earn his way into the Derby field and he finished close to Colonel John when fourth in the Cash Call Futurity at Hollywood Park last season. He seems to be peaking at the right time. He also has a win over the Churchill Downs main track.
Negatives: He has made just two starts as a 3-year-old and one of them was a troubled performance in the Fountain of Youth. From where we sit that?s just not enough preparation for the rigors of the Kentucky Derby.
Analysis: He?s a toss off our ticket. Trainer Todd Pletcher has run far more accomplished horses than this one in the Derby and come away empty. There?s no indication Monba is a special runner and we?ll guess that the funky Blue Grass really played into his strengths. The Derby will be much tougher.
15- ADRIANO (30-1)
Positives: He won the Lane?s End at Turfway in dominating fashion. He is the choice of Kentucky Derby-winning jockey Edgar Prado for the race over two other runners.
Negatives: He has tried main track dirt once in his career and that was a troubled performance in the Fountain of Youth. He has had four turf starts and one Polytrack effort. Last time we checked the Derby was on natural dirt.
Analysis: Adriano could be the poster boy for this season?s Kentucky Derby. He?s talented, has raced on a variety of surfaces, is handled by top connections and is hard to figure out. Which Adriano will show up for the Kentucky Derby-- the winner of the Lane?s End or the one that finished ninth in the Fountain of Youth after early trouble? Those were his last two races this season, respectively. He?s better than his Fountain of Youth effort, but it?s a leap of faith to guess that he?ll handle the main track in this race on this day. Limit his use to minor exotic tickets and keep an eye on him in the paddock; he tends to get a bit stirred up before his races.
16- DENIS OF CORK (20-1)
Positives: He won the first three races of his career before failing in the Illinois Derby. He?s lightly raced and has room to improve. His victory in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn was very impressive, so it appears he has enough talent to act with these. He also has won at Churchill Downs going seven furlongs. He worked very well at Churchill during Derby week and has emerged as a bit of a ?wsie-guy? choice in the Derby.
Negatives: It?s difficult to imagine a runner rebounding off such a poor performance in the Illinois Derby without much excuse. His Derby prep schedule was shuffled around to include the Illinois Derby and that?s never a good sign.
Analysis: He has talent, no doubt. How much talent is difficult to judge off just four lifetime starts. He?s liable to be a big price and probably is a question mark worth an investment based on his trio of races before the Illinois Derby. We expect him to run well in here at a decent price.
17- COWBOY CAL (20-1)
Positives: Cowboy Cal ran second to stable-mate Monba in the Blue Grass. He has finished either first or second in six lifetime starts.
Negatives: He has had all of his success on turf or Polytrack. He likes to race on or near the lead and that figures to be a contentious area code in the Derby. It?s not unreasonable to suggest that a Derby contender have at least one win on the main track (either Poly or dirt) and Cowboy Cal doesn?t.
Analysis: We?ll leave this one off our tickets in all positions.
18- RECAPTURETHEGLORY (20-1)
Positives: He went wire-to- wire to win the Illinois Derby and posted a competitive speed figure. His owner/trainer team has been to the Derby before.
Negatives: Before the Illinois Derby he hadn?t done anything to suggest he could compete with this Derby field. One race does not make a Derby winner.
Analysis: We?ll pass on this one because his style and previous accomplishments are negatives.
19- GAYEGO (15-1)
Positives: He has won three of five lifetime starts, including the Arkansas Derby last out. He has never been worse than second, including a runner-up effort to the subsequently-injured Georgie Boy in the San Felipe. Derby-winning jock Mike Smith has ridden Gayego in every start. His speed figures fit with the competition and he?s already handled the switch from synthetic to natural dirt.
Negatives: Based on his breeding and running style, he?ll have a difficult time carrying his speed a mile and one-quarter. Also, the pace of the race should not favor him. He?s a front-running pacesetter who should find plenty of company early in the Derby.
Analysis: This is a nice horse, trained to the minute by a capable, but low-profile trainer--Paulo Lobo. However, the Kentucky Derby doesn?t seem to be the type of race to suit him. The distance and pace picture appear to be stacked against him and those are two negatives he won?t overcome. Toss him.
20- BIG BROWN (3-1)
Positives: He?s undefeated, and has won all three lifetime starts by a combined 29 lengths. He?s got speed to stay clear of the equine maelstrom that is the mosh-pit of the Kentucky Derby. Rick Dutrow is his conditioner and Hall of Fame jock Kent Desormeaux is in the saddle?both are on hot streaks. Big Brown worked in :58 and change in Florida before shipping to Churchill and then galloped nicely around the Louisville oval before blowing out nicely Thursday of Derby week.
Negatives: He has had only three overall career starts and just two this year. That?s a serious lack of experience for a Kentucky Derby favorite. Big Brown had quarter-crack troubles early in his career which kept him from making more starts. His trainer is quoted as describing the Derby as ?not a tough race.? The racing gods traditionally frown on such blasphemy. What will Brown do for you if he breaks slowly or finds traffic in the Kentucky Derby? We don?t know; he?s never experienced anything like what he?ll face on the first Saturday in May. And we really don?t like so many good questions surrounding a favorite in a 20-horse field breaking from the far outside post position.
Analysis: If you think you?re looking at the greatest horse to come along in about a half-century, by all means key Big Brown on top in whatever you do. Plenty of experts feel he?s a cinch to win this race, partly because he?s so talented and partly because this year?s 3-year-old crop seems a bit weak. On paper there?s lots to like about Big Brown. However, in this corner, we?ll challenge him to beat us on the win end and use him with many others in the minor positions. The benefit to be gained by having Big Brown out of the first spot in the exotics far outweighs the reward for having him in those positions. Truthfully, he could be off the board or win by five lengths. We?re looking for the former.
Johnny D
KENTUCKY DERBY ANALYSIS
Any analysis of this year?s Kentucky Derby has to begin with the favorite Big Brown and his pluses and minuses. We?re taking a stand against him on the win end of things based upon his inexperience and outside post position (see Big Brown analysis below for more). So, we are then left with the question: If we don?t like Big Brown, who do we like?
We rank Colonel John, Pyro and Denis of Cork as horses we expect to run well. We also give long looks to Visionaire and Court Vision as horses that might outrun their odds to get a piece of the exotics. Will we ignore Big Brown? No. Not if we learned anything from last year?s Derby when we left a horse named Curlin off our tickets because we didn?t think he could win the race. We were right in one respect, but painfully wrong when it came to the three-hole in the Superfecta. We?ll include Big Brown somewhere on our tickets.
Suggested $1 Derby Superfecta ($84)
First: 9, 10
Second: 9, 10, 16
Third: 8, 9, 10, 16, 20
Fourth: 1, 3, 4, 6, 8, 9, 10, 15, 16, 20
Below is a horse-by-horse look at this year?s Kentucky Derby lineup in post position order with morning-line odds. And remember, opinions are like noses?everybody?s got one.
1-COOL COAL MAN (20-1)
Positives: He defeated Elysium Fields and Court Vision in the Fountain of Youth. That effort put him squarely in the Derby picture. He then ran poorly over Polytrack in his next start in the Blue Grass. Toss that race out and he?s a legitimate contender. He also has a win at Churchill Downs.
Negatives: Even if you ignore the poor Blue Grass performance, Cool Coal Man still has just one stakes win. That shouldn?t be good enough to win the Derby.
Analysis: Cool Coal Man has a stalking running style that seems to fit in this year?s Derby, but just like with fans of Pyro this one will have to be forgiven off a poor Blue Grass effort. He can be used in the fourth spot in Supers and in other exotic wagers at a big price, however.
2- TALE OF EKATI (15-1)
Positives: He broke through with a Grade I win in the Wood Memorial over 2-year-old champ War Pass. He has a grinding, even-paced style which should be effective in the Derby.
Negatives: He really didn?t step up as a 3-year-old until the Wood. That suggests he may not be as talented as the foes he?ll meet in the Derby. The Wood win was a perfect set-up race for him as War Pass was hooked on the early pace and figured to fade at the end. ?Ekati was in the right spot, that?s it. Jockey Edgar Prado passed on this mount for the Derby and chose to ride the untested Adriano instead.
Analysis: ?Ekati is a steady runner with credentials to be around for a minor spot. It?s hard to imagine him actually winning or finishing second. He just doesn?t seem talented enough. The pace picture favors him picking up some pieces at the end, though. Limit his use to Super tickets only, if that.
3- ANAK NAKAL (30-1)
Positives: He won a Grade II stakes at Churchill as a 2-year-old around two turns.
Negatives: Anak Nakal has been unspectacular in three starts this season, including one with blinkers last out.
Analysis: We?ll pass on this one in the prime spots and may use him only in the fourth hole.
4- COURT VISION (20-1)
Positives: He has won half of his starts?three for six?and seems to be coming into form right now. He should be closing at the end of the Derby while picking up some tired foes. His closing style may work well as the Derby figures to have a contested early pace. He was too far back in the Fountain of Youth and then didn?t handle a drying out track in the Wood. He won the Iroquois at Churchill last year around one turn. He will add blinkers for the Derby and had an uncharacteristically fast recent work at Churchill.
Negatives: Court Vision has had just two races this season and, while he?s closed ground in each of those races, neither was very impressive. He never has run a really fast race.
Analysis: Court Vision is a longshot to win the Derby. He just hasn?t done enough to be considered a legitimate challenger on the ?win? end. However, his closing style should give him a chance at hitting the bottom slots in Supers and Tris. Trainer Bill Mott and a patient ride from Garrett Gomez give this one a fighting chance to hit the exotic ticket at a big price.
5- EIGHT BELLES (20-1)
Positives: She?s a talented filly in a year with a less-than-stellar group of colts. She has won five of nine races, including her last four starts. Her connections plan to enter her in the Oaks and Derby, and if they choose to run in the Derby you know they?re serious about her chances. She?s big, strong and fast.
Negatives: Fillies seldom win the Kentucky Derby. Despite her outstanding record against her sex, the Kentucky Derby represents a completely different challenge. She has never raced past a mile and one-sixteenth and will be asked to go a mile and one-quarter in the Derby. Her running style should have her in the second flight and she?ll really have to kick it in to pass the colts in the lane. She also lugged in while winning her last race.
Analysis: We?ll have to challenge her to beat us. She?s a top filly, no doubt, but facing colts at a mile and one-quarter is another matter.
6- Z FORTUNE (15-1)
Positives: He ran well to finish second to Gayego in the Arkansas Derby and a repeat of that effort figures to put him in the Derby mix. He was wide on both turns while the winner saved ground. His second to Pyro in the Risen Star also was a good try.
Negatives: Z Fortune?s Arkansas Derby effort was so much better than anything else he?s done in his career that it?s difficult to expect him to repeat it on Derby day. Pyro ran by him like he was standing still in the Risen Star earlier this year.
Analysis: What to do with Z Fortune is a real problem. He?s in good form, that?s for sure, but can he duplicate his Arkansas Derby effort in the Kentucky version? We?re going to use him in the minor spots in exotics and leave him off the ?win? end of things.
7- BIG TRUCK (50-1)
Positives: He upset the Tampa Bay Derby field when War Pass failed to fire and he was second in the Sam F. Davis, also at Tampa Bay, just before that. Toss his poor effort in the Blue Grass over Polytrack.
Negatives: His early success came against fellow New York-breds before he was fourth to Court Vision in the Remsen. He finished lapped on Smooth Air when second in the Sam F. Davis, and outlasted Atoned in the Tampa Bay Derby. Neither of those runners are listed as ?ones to beat? in here.
Analysis: Overall Big Truck would need to step up his game to compete for the major spots in this race. He?s another we?ll look to leave off of our tickets.
8- VISIONAIRE (20-1)
Positives: He?s coming up to this race nicely with a win in the Gotham Stakes before a well-beaten fifth in the Blue Grass over Poly. He was third to Pyro in the Risen Star before the Gotham win. He comes from off the pace and that?s a good place to be in this year?s Derby.
Negatives: Although he has a Grade III win and third-place finish to his credit, he really hasn?t faced top competition in his career.
Analysis: If you?re looking for a nice-priced runner to use in Supers and Tris, this could be your guy. He has a great closing style, which should work well in the Derby and he?s been improving nicely for trainer Michael Matz, who conditioned Barbaro to win the Derby two years ago.
9-PYRO 6-1
Positives: He?s won three of seven starts and over $1 million in purses. Based on two strong wins in the Risen Star and Lousiana Derby he was the early-season favorite to win the Derby. However, the emergence of Big Brown and a subsequent flat performance by Pyro in the Blue Grass at Keeneland saw support diminish for the son of Pulpit. Pyro is trained by Steve Asmussen (one of the best in the business) likes Churchill Downs (where he broke his maiden in his first start) and was second to 2-year-old champ War Pass twice last year, including once in the Breeders? Cup Juvenile.
Negatives: His Blue Grass performance at Keeneland was uninspiring. Some will dismiss Pyro solely based on that race. Critics also argue that his Beyer speed figures from this year are too slow to win the Derby. Historically, it has been nearly impossible for a horse who finished worse than fourth to come back to win the Derby in his next start.
Analysis: Pyro?s?s a definite ?use? on our ticket. Forgiving handicappers will toss the Blue Grass based on the assumption that Pyro didn?t handle Polytrack. During the Keeneland meeting, some horses failed to make the transition from dirt or other synthetic surfaces to that particular artificial surface. Pyro?s talented, battled-tested and capable of winning this race. There should be plenty of pace for him to stalk and he?s shown a decent late kick. If you ignore the Blue Grass at Keeneland, it?s hard to imagine Pyro off the board based on his credentials.
10- COLONEL JOHN (4-1)
Positives: Four wins in six starts and $825k in earnings say it all. He won the Santa Anita Derby in his last start and should have no trouble handling the mile-and-one-quarter Derby distance. He will be making his first start on dirt after racing on synthetic surfaces in California, but several runners have made a successful transition to dirt recently and there?s no reason to think John won?t do it too. California form seems to have held up well in the prep races. He worked in :57 and change over the Churchill surface and trained over it as a 2-year-old.
Negatives: There?s the previously-mentioned surface switch, for starters. How do we really know he?ll handle dirt? He also inexplicably dropped back a bit on the final turn in the Santa Anita Derby before rallying to win. A temporary lapse in concentration like that in the Derby will be difficult to overcome.
Analysis: Colonel John has so many things going for him that?s it?s impossible to toss him from the picture. He?s by Tiznow, won the Santa Anita Derby and should be in a great mid-pack position. Count him ?in? whatever you do.
11- Z HUMOR (30-1)
Positives: He dead-heated for the win in the Delta Jackpot and is trained by Bill Mott, a top conditioner.
Negatives: He has just two wins in eight lifetime starts and hasn?t really stepped up yet against top competition. Other than in the Delta Jackpot he hasn?t distinguished himself.
Analysis: We?ll pass on this one.
12- SMOOTH AIR (20-1)
Positives: He finished a well-beaten second to Big Brown in the Florida Derby, but was seven and one-half lengths in front of the third horse Tomcito. He?s had plenty of experience and is bred to get the distance.
Negatives: He recently battled a slight fever and despite the fact that his 70-year-old trainer says the horse is fine, that?s not a good sign going into the Kentucky Derby. Other than his runner-up effort to Big Brown, he hasn?t faced any of the top contenders.
Analysis: Smooth Air was on the improve heading into the Florida Derby and figured to run well that day. He?s a hard-knocking type we would have really liked to round out the exotic spots before he got sick in Louisville. How much will the fever take out of him? We?ll guess enough to keep him out of the top three spots at least.
13- BOB BLACK JACK (20-1)
Positives: He finished right with Colonel John in the Santa Anita Derby and alongside Gayego in the San Felipe?both highly-regarded foes in decent races. He is tough and game in the lane and will give you everything he?s got to the wire.
Negatives: Bob Black Jack?s running style is a real problem in this race. He likes to go to the lead and battle it out in the stretch. That?s going to be difficult with several other speed horses signed on. Also, there?s lots of doubt about how far this one wants to run. A mile and one-quarter figures to be out of his reach. We?ll keep him off our tickets.
14- MONBA (15-1)
Positives: Pulled off a nice upset in the Blue Grass to earn his way into the Derby field and he finished close to Colonel John when fourth in the Cash Call Futurity at Hollywood Park last season. He seems to be peaking at the right time. He also has a win over the Churchill Downs main track.
Negatives: He has made just two starts as a 3-year-old and one of them was a troubled performance in the Fountain of Youth. From where we sit that?s just not enough preparation for the rigors of the Kentucky Derby.
Analysis: He?s a toss off our ticket. Trainer Todd Pletcher has run far more accomplished horses than this one in the Derby and come away empty. There?s no indication Monba is a special runner and we?ll guess that the funky Blue Grass really played into his strengths. The Derby will be much tougher.
15- ADRIANO (30-1)
Positives: He won the Lane?s End at Turfway in dominating fashion. He is the choice of Kentucky Derby-winning jockey Edgar Prado for the race over two other runners.
Negatives: He has tried main track dirt once in his career and that was a troubled performance in the Fountain of Youth. He has had four turf starts and one Polytrack effort. Last time we checked the Derby was on natural dirt.
Analysis: Adriano could be the poster boy for this season?s Kentucky Derby. He?s talented, has raced on a variety of surfaces, is handled by top connections and is hard to figure out. Which Adriano will show up for the Kentucky Derby-- the winner of the Lane?s End or the one that finished ninth in the Fountain of Youth after early trouble? Those were his last two races this season, respectively. He?s better than his Fountain of Youth effort, but it?s a leap of faith to guess that he?ll handle the main track in this race on this day. Limit his use to minor exotic tickets and keep an eye on him in the paddock; he tends to get a bit stirred up before his races.
16- DENIS OF CORK (20-1)
Positives: He won the first three races of his career before failing in the Illinois Derby. He?s lightly raced and has room to improve. His victory in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn was very impressive, so it appears he has enough talent to act with these. He also has won at Churchill Downs going seven furlongs. He worked very well at Churchill during Derby week and has emerged as a bit of a ?wsie-guy? choice in the Derby.
Negatives: It?s difficult to imagine a runner rebounding off such a poor performance in the Illinois Derby without much excuse. His Derby prep schedule was shuffled around to include the Illinois Derby and that?s never a good sign.
Analysis: He has talent, no doubt. How much talent is difficult to judge off just four lifetime starts. He?s liable to be a big price and probably is a question mark worth an investment based on his trio of races before the Illinois Derby. We expect him to run well in here at a decent price.
17- COWBOY CAL (20-1)
Positives: Cowboy Cal ran second to stable-mate Monba in the Blue Grass. He has finished either first or second in six lifetime starts.
Negatives: He has had all of his success on turf or Polytrack. He likes to race on or near the lead and that figures to be a contentious area code in the Derby. It?s not unreasonable to suggest that a Derby contender have at least one win on the main track (either Poly or dirt) and Cowboy Cal doesn?t.
Analysis: We?ll leave this one off our tickets in all positions.
18- RECAPTURETHEGLORY (20-1)
Positives: He went wire-to- wire to win the Illinois Derby and posted a competitive speed figure. His owner/trainer team has been to the Derby before.
Negatives: Before the Illinois Derby he hadn?t done anything to suggest he could compete with this Derby field. One race does not make a Derby winner.
Analysis: We?ll pass on this one because his style and previous accomplishments are negatives.
19- GAYEGO (15-1)
Positives: He has won three of five lifetime starts, including the Arkansas Derby last out. He has never been worse than second, including a runner-up effort to the subsequently-injured Georgie Boy in the San Felipe. Derby-winning jock Mike Smith has ridden Gayego in every start. His speed figures fit with the competition and he?s already handled the switch from synthetic to natural dirt.
Negatives: Based on his breeding and running style, he?ll have a difficult time carrying his speed a mile and one-quarter. Also, the pace of the race should not favor him. He?s a front-running pacesetter who should find plenty of company early in the Derby.
Analysis: This is a nice horse, trained to the minute by a capable, but low-profile trainer--Paulo Lobo. However, the Kentucky Derby doesn?t seem to be the type of race to suit him. The distance and pace picture appear to be stacked against him and those are two negatives he won?t overcome. Toss him.
20- BIG BROWN (3-1)
Positives: He?s undefeated, and has won all three lifetime starts by a combined 29 lengths. He?s got speed to stay clear of the equine maelstrom that is the mosh-pit of the Kentucky Derby. Rick Dutrow is his conditioner and Hall of Fame jock Kent Desormeaux is in the saddle?both are on hot streaks. Big Brown worked in :58 and change in Florida before shipping to Churchill and then galloped nicely around the Louisville oval before blowing out nicely Thursday of Derby week.
Negatives: He has had only three overall career starts and just two this year. That?s a serious lack of experience for a Kentucky Derby favorite. Big Brown had quarter-crack troubles early in his career which kept him from making more starts. His trainer is quoted as describing the Derby as ?not a tough race.? The racing gods traditionally frown on such blasphemy. What will Brown do for you if he breaks slowly or finds traffic in the Kentucky Derby? We don?t know; he?s never experienced anything like what he?ll face on the first Saturday in May. And we really don?t like so many good questions surrounding a favorite in a 20-horse field breaking from the far outside post position.
Analysis: If you think you?re looking at the greatest horse to come along in about a half-century, by all means key Big Brown on top in whatever you do. Plenty of experts feel he?s a cinch to win this race, partly because he?s so talented and partly because this year?s 3-year-old crop seems a bit weak. On paper there?s lots to like about Big Brown. However, in this corner, we?ll challenge him to beat us on the win end and use him with many others in the minor positions. The benefit to be gained by having Big Brown out of the first spot in the exotics far outweighs the reward for having him in those positions. Truthfully, he could be off the board or win by five lengths. We?re looking for the former.