This from Bloomberg.com...
trying to explain the frantic changes in election markets....
Kerry Overtakes Bush in Online Futures After Exit Poll Reports
Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Traders reversed bets that George W. Bush would win the U.S. presidential election after Web sites posted what they said were exit polls showing John Kerry leading in battleground states including Florida and Ohio.
Kerry led Bush by 18.1 percentage points in trading on the Iowa Electronic Markets, a not-for-profit political betting system run by the University of Iowa, as of 3:40 p.m. New York time. Kerry held a 16 percentage-point lead on Intrade, an electronic betting exchange based in Dublin known by its Web site TradeSports.com.
Ninety minutes earlier, Bush had a 3.8 percentage-point advantage over Kerry on the Iowa market and a 13.5 lead on Intrade. In Iowa, Bush futures last traded at 38.7 and Kerry was quoted at 56.8. On Intrade, Bush futures were quoted at 42, down from 57 at 2 p.m. Kerry was quoted at 58, up from 43.
Internet gossip columnist Matt Drudge posted what he said were early exit poll results from 14 states at about 2:45 p.m. Washington time showing Kerry held a lead over Bush in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Although Drudge took the numbers off his Web site about 20 minutes later, other Internet sites, including Slate.com and Wonkette.com, have similar figures.