Key numbers

[tchism]

I read a thread earlier where someone was asking about line movements....so I read a few interesting articles about line movements. The articles mentioned "key numbers" several times...but I'm not sure what the key numbers are. I've read Nolan refer to key numbers several times....but I never actually tried to figure out all the key numbers or logic behind each number.

If someone has a quick reference or old article explaining all key numbers.....I would appreciate it.

tc

 

[buckeye]

http://www.thelogicalapproach.com/key_numbers.htm
http://www.footballinsider.com/handicapping/BuyingTheHalfPoint.htm

 

[tchism]

Thanks!

tc

 

[dawgball]

Great articles, buckeye! Once again I have been proven to be terrible at gambling logic. I was just thinking of this subject over the weekend talking to a very inexperienced gambler. he was talking about buying 1/2 points everywhere. I never make suggestions about gambling until I find someone else that says it so I kept my mouth shut. But, I completely disagreed with him.

In my best logic, it would be most profitable to buy onto a key number compared to buying off of a key nubmer. I figured it would be better to buy yourself out of a loss than into a win. By that I mean--if the line is at 2' and I buy the half--I have it at 3 which is the most likely outcome in NFL. This gives me the chance to push at 3--All other outcomes would not be affected. I feel like that would be like hedging my bet for that 3 point margin with an additional 10% juice.

If I buy off of the 3, then I feel like I am hoping that it lands on 3.

This probably does not make sense because I think I have confused myself. If anyone can make anything out of this, please explain it to me.

Thanks, and sorry for trasing up this thread.

------------------
Sic 'em
dawgball

 

[buckeye]

dawg,
I found these articles INVALUABLE. I have read many pros post about knowing the value of a half point and I didn't want to hand compile years worth of data to figure it out. Between the two articles, they answered most of my questions. One key point is that the "2" has made a major difference and changed the keys. I had read posts to the contrary, and erroneously believed the posters knew what they were talking about - they didn't!

As for on vs off, I don't differentiate. It is either statistically sound, based on historic data, or not. Which direction isn't as important as "how much is it LIKELY worth?". I feel it is a numbers game. There are different "mentalities" in hedging against a number vs rooting for it to "validate" the extra juice, but I focus on the math - not the "rooting" interest. What will help boost profits over the course of the year, not just this game.

The concept is very important with teasers, as crossing the on and off of the two key numbers of 3 and 7 maximizes the value of "buying" 6 or 7 points. While most I've seen talk about them seem to advocate against it, I am not so sure that a 7 ptr from -3.5 to +3.5 isn't also worth considering when teasing.

GL