Key to Rays-Rangers Game 3?

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David Price's fastball, for starters



No one should be surprised that the Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers are tied at a game apiece. Their A.L. Division Series went the full five games last year and both teams came into the postseason playing their best ball of the season.

What has been unexpected is how the games played out.


First a shocker: Rays rookie Matt Moore, in only his second career start, shut down one of the game's best offenses and beat Rangers ace C.J. Wilson. Then a stunner: Rays ace James Shields, who shut down the Rangers in the regular season, could not overcome a rare bout of wildness as the Rangers won Game 2.

Based on such a start to the series, who knows what Game 3 might bring in Monday's 5:07 p.m. ET start?

Yet another reason to expect the unexpected at Tropicana Field is Rays starter David Price. He is one of the game's best lefty starters, a two-time All-Star at 26 who was the first pick in the 2007 draft. When Price says, "I expect to go nine innings and give up zero runs," you understand. He's that good.

Price also is coming off a disappointing regular season that concluded with two subpar starts in a winless September. And he will be facing the only A.L. team he has not beaten in his four-year career. In eight starts against the Rangers and a lineup dominated by right-handed hitters, he is 0-5 with a 5.48 ERA, including two losses in last year's playoffs.


"It is tough to forget about," Price said Sunday. "It is something that I think about and something that I want to get over with."

Predicting which Price will show up at Tropicana Field is as difficult as figuring out what lineup Rays manager Joe Maddon will devise to face Rangers starter Colby Lewis. But knowing what Price's pitching depends on is as easy as finding a ticket to a Rays' regular-season game. It all comes down to fastball command.

If Price puts his 95 mph four-seamer where he wants, he'll be fine. While true for any pitcher, it applies even more to Price because he relies so heavily on his heater. In one start this season, he threw 112 pitches?and 102 were fastballs. And this was a season in which he learned to mix in his slider and changeup more than ever.

Price was asked the other day if he learned anything from Moore's seven shutout innings of the Rangers in Game 1.

"Yeah, throw strike one," he said. Price repeated himself at a Sunday news conference in speaking of Moore. "He was 0-1 and 0-2 a lot the other night and that calls for some defensive swings. Whenever you can get that out of guys like on a Rangers team, that's what you need."

Maddon has been talking lately about Price needing to rely more on his other "toys in the toy box."

"I think he's gotten away from doing some things on occasion that make him really good," Maddon said. "We'll just talk about it and I have already put it in (pitching coach Jim Hickey's) ear."

Perhaps, but Maddon knows the key to Price's performance. The skipper talks about fastball command before and after most of Price's starts. If it's not there Monday, the Rays could find themselves in a 2-1 hole.

Overcoming that would be a surprise. Only three teams have in 22 Division Series.
 

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Today's lineups: Rangers vs. Rays



As Rangers manager Ron Washington indicated on Sunday, he has Mitch Moreland at first base and Craig Gentry in center field.

Here are the lineups:

RANGERS
2B Ian Kinsler
SS Elvis Andrus
LF Josh Hamilton (L)
DH Michael Young
3B Adrian Beltre
C Mike Napoli
RF Nelson Cruz
1B Mitch Moreland (L)
CF Craig Gentry

RAYS
LF Desmond Jennings
CF B.J. Upton
3B Evan Longoria
RF Matt Joyce (L)
DH Johnny Damon (L)
2B Ben Zobrist (S)
1B Casey Kotchman (L)
C John Jaso (L)
SS Reid Brignac (L)

Maddon said he went with the left-handed hitting because of how good Colby Lewis is against right-handed hitters.

Lewis goes up against LHP David Price
 

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random, assorted thoughts on the game:

David Price has gotten a bad rap for struggling in big games this season, and while I really want to dissuade all that talk as a myth, I also can't ignore this one fact: Price has the lowest Clutch score (-2.0) of any starting pitcher in the majors this season. Part of this could simply be that he pitches in close games frequently, but to have such a dramatic score, it also suggests that he's had trouble pitching once men get on base and in getting good results in important situations. Bad luck? Poor performance? It's impossible to separate the two, but it's likely a bit of both.

Luckily for us, though, clutch performance is in no way predictive. Maybe Price has been bad in high-leverage spots this season, but he was above-average in Clutch last season and around average the season before. In other words: past unclutch performances =/= future unclutch performances.

In general, it's much safer to assume that good pitchers will get good results more often than not, rather than penalizing Price for his seemingly unclutch performance this season. Price has posted a 3.48 ERA and the best peripheral statistics (3.32 FIP, 3.12 SIERA) of his career this season; he's still an ace starter, and one of the best pitchers in the league.

So keep faith in Price, and even if he botches up today, don't overextrapolate the results. It's unfair to label him an unclutch pitcher; the very most we can say is he's having an unclutch season, which may or may not continue.
But seriously, even though Matt Moore succeeded by throwing almost all fastballs, Price needs to break away from the habit of throwing 99% fastballs (I may be exaggerating slightly). Price does have impressive four- and two-seam fastballs, but they haven't gotten the job done all by themselves recently. It's seems like a trite cliche, but hitters can time up a fastball if that's all you throw them, even if that fastball is 95 MPH.

Considering the Rangers' lineup is so heavy with right-handed power hitters, I hope Price uses today as an excuse to break out his curveball and changeup more frequently. Pitches with vertical break are most effective against opposite-handed hitters, and J.C. Mitchell made the great observation last week that the Rangers struggle against curveballs. Moore's curveball saw solid results against Texas, and I imagine Price's curve would as well if he uses it today.




Hey, the Trop suppresses right-handed power by something like 8%. Let's hope that's enough to give the Rangers some struggles.


--DRaysBay - A Tampa Bay Rays Blog: Ball on a Budget
 
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