Outright plays (total stake per play: 2pts)
Morris Hatalsky to win 20/1 e.w. @ Bet365 and Ladbrokes
Simple pick to make. Hatalsky has finishes of 1st, 2nd and 4th in his last five starts and has finished in the top-10, including a best of 3rd place, in the three years that this event has been staged at The Hills. With a similarly impressive record in other events in Texas, this looks a solid play.
Brad Bryant to win 25/1 e.w. @ Bet365, William Hill and Ladbrokes
Bryant can also count a win and a 2nd place in his last five starts and a similarly impressive record on this course, so this is a very similar pick to Hatalsky. He finished 5th on his debut on this course last year and finished 4th in his other start in Texas last year (Administaff Small Business Classic) despite holding the lead with one round to play. He was born in Amarillo, Texas , so that should be another advantage and closed with a 66 in the final round last week, so there are no concerns about his form either. So, just like Hatalsky, a rather predictable pick, though there is value at these odds.
Jerry Pate to win 33/1 e.w. @ Bet365, William Hill and Ladbrokes
It has taken some time for Pate to look very competitive on this Tour. He did lose out on the Senior PGA Championship via a playoff last year, but he has never really put any form together until this year. Now he can lay claim to a win, a 6th place and a 7th place finish in his last four starts and his 6th place finish looks all week as though it would be a lot higher, but playing in the final group, he played poorly in the opening nine holes on Sunday and never recovered. He did play this course in his Tour rookie season (2004) and finished 27th, but he had yet to finish in the top-10 on Tour and this year will be a different proposition. He did finish 6th in his sole start in Texas last year (SBC Championship) and a similarly high finish is expected this year.
Larry Nelson to win 66/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes
Adding a fourth play with more bookies offering five places this week andthis event being rather open. And while Nelson may be considered a player past his prime, there has been a marked improvement in his form this season with four top-15 finishes and a 6th place finish last week that would have been a top-5 finish but for a bogey on the final hole. That means he may be more competitive again and it is no accident that it has occurred when the players are allowed to use carts again - Nelson is a player who has struggled more than most with his back. If he is becoming competitive again, then it is a very good time for him to be playing in Texas. Not only is he a former winner of this event (2004), but he has won four times on this Tour in Texas since 2000 and finished 2nd on one other occasion, from a total of 12 starts in that period. That's an impressive record in the Lone Star State.
Morris Hatalsky to win 20/1 e.w. @ Bet365 and Ladbrokes
Simple pick to make. Hatalsky has finishes of 1st, 2nd and 4th in his last five starts and has finished in the top-10, including a best of 3rd place, in the three years that this event has been staged at The Hills. With a similarly impressive record in other events in Texas, this looks a solid play.
Brad Bryant to win 25/1 e.w. @ Bet365, William Hill and Ladbrokes
Bryant can also count a win and a 2nd place in his last five starts and a similarly impressive record on this course, so this is a very similar pick to Hatalsky. He finished 5th on his debut on this course last year and finished 4th in his other start in Texas last year (Administaff Small Business Classic) despite holding the lead with one round to play. He was born in Amarillo, Texas , so that should be another advantage and closed with a 66 in the final round last week, so there are no concerns about his form either. So, just like Hatalsky, a rather predictable pick, though there is value at these odds.
Jerry Pate to win 33/1 e.w. @ Bet365, William Hill and Ladbrokes
It has taken some time for Pate to look very competitive on this Tour. He did lose out on the Senior PGA Championship via a playoff last year, but he has never really put any form together until this year. Now he can lay claim to a win, a 6th place and a 7th place finish in his last four starts and his 6th place finish looks all week as though it would be a lot higher, but playing in the final group, he played poorly in the opening nine holes on Sunday and never recovered. He did play this course in his Tour rookie season (2004) and finished 27th, but he had yet to finish in the top-10 on Tour and this year will be a different proposition. He did finish 6th in his sole start in Texas last year (SBC Championship) and a similarly high finish is expected this year.
Larry Nelson to win 66/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes
Adding a fourth play with more bookies offering five places this week andthis event being rather open. And while Nelson may be considered a player past his prime, there has been a marked improvement in his form this season with four top-15 finishes and a 6th place finish last week that would have been a top-5 finish but for a bogey on the final hole. That means he may be more competitive again and it is no accident that it has occurred when the players are allowed to use carts again - Nelson is a player who has struggled more than most with his back. If he is becoming competitive again, then it is a very good time for him to be playing in Texas. Not only is he a former winner of this event (2004), but he has won four times on this Tour in Texas since 2000 and finished 2nd on one other occasion, from a total of 12 starts in that period. That's an impressive record in the Lone Star State.
