klitschko/peter...saturday night...discussion...

[gardenweasel]

i just started this off the cuff...in another place...figured i`d throw it out there...get the ball rolling...

guys....

personally,i don`t see how this thing goes 12(it`s listed as a 12`er).....

several thoughts come to mind..

.we have no idea as to whether or not peter has decent whiskers....

i do know that vitali hasn`t finished in any of his 3 losses...

you have a 6`6" tall guy vs a 6` even guy...makes you realize that peter will have to take shots to get close enough to do damage..brewster was belabored by vitali...it still amazes me that he was able to withstand the early beating.....and come back to stop vitali.....brewster does have a serious beard....and real heart....

..brewster was also a short heavyweight....much like peter...

several questions seem obvious...

1)does peter have a decent chin?....and can he sustain in a very difficult fight if we make it to the middle rounds?...i don`t recall seeing peter vs an offensive fighter the caliber of vitali....i don`t recall him fighting through fatigue in a tough fight...he hasn`t been in any....

2)vitali`s chin is ????....does vitali have any stamina????....does he have heart vs really dangerous opponents that aren`t intimidated by him?....can he sustain vs an offensive minded brutal puncher like peter?.....


these questions led me to believe that there`s very little chance that this thing goes to the cards....the only scenario i see that could lead to this going 12 is that both guys miss whiff early and just become exhausted....

but,i really don`t see that happening...peter doesn`t really seem concerned with defense....he won`t be hard to find...

i think that wlad will HAVE to make peter respect him early....he`ll have to keep peter at a distance and punish him....make him not want to close distance.....

i know that wlad has been criticized because of his alleged lack of stamina and heart....

it seems that brother vitali has that indefinable will to win...the heart.....i honestly believe that wlad is the more talented....i think he`s the bigger puncher....

but,i have to say that when the going gets tough,he has taken a cab several times....that`s just how i see it...

maybe it`s a bad rap...we`ll see saturday...he can resurrect his career with a big win...

all that said,i have "the fight won`t go the distance" prop at -440 parlayed with everything from the "corrales/castillo doesn`t go the distance" prop to " o.j. doesn`t find nicole`s real killer".....everything...

the "wins by 12 round decision" props are +1515 and +1575 respectively.....you get the drift...

i`ll take a real beating if this goes 12....i`l lose a good chunk of what i`ve won this year in boxing...and that will hurt....

it`s so obvious to me,that it actually scares me....these are the kinds of wagers that make guys swear off gambling....

i`m interested in hearing differing opinions...or similar ones...with rationale if possible.....

this one piques my interest....

g.l.

 

[amhlilhaus]

I agree with what you say, wladimir and his 'champion' brother have always looked terrified when someone threw a punch back at them, the difference is vitali has a solid chin, and wladimir doesn't. this is such a sure thing I can't bet on it, because I'd overdo it and then they would score a double knockdown and spend the rest of the fight looking at each other in clinches, while I slowly go insane watching my money go down the drain.

good luck to you though.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

As you know, I played the "fight won't go distance" straight up at -440. I can't see this fight going the distance, unless the ref allows constant holding and clinching, which is possible.


With the 12 round decision props as high as they are, I scalped my play setting up free money on the fight not going the distance.


gl on the parlays

 

[gardenweasel]

yeah...as i said in my e mail,i did the same....+1575 and +1515....whew....

those odds alone speak volumes about what the oddsmakers think....

b.l....tony montana seems to think that wlad`s stamina,chin and heart are not problems....

is he whistling past the graveyard?......after purrity,sanders,and brewster...as much as i respect him,i suspect that may be the case...

not to say that he can`t beat peter...i think he can....absolutely, it could swing either way...peter isn`t very skilled...and he hasn`t been in as tough as this...and we have no inkling as to what kind of chin he has...or how he`ll react to someone punching back that`s as big and punches as hard as klit....this isn`t jeremy williams....

this one is verrrry interesting...

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Absolutely

Wlad went 12 with Chris Byrd

Wlad went 10 with McCline before Jam's corner threw in the towel, Wlad was obviously still affective at that point.

I don't blame Wlad for being exhausted after 5 rounds against Brewster, you can only beat a guy for so long before your arms get tired.

I played Wlad +220 and could scalp it with Peter -150 but I'm letting it ride. I have a feeling Wlad will be too tall, too long, too experienced, and too offensively too offensively skilled for the untested Peter.

Tony said this is one of his biggest wagers in a while, that means a lot coming from him, solid boxing guy.

I also played the under 6.5 at +125 but I might scalp it getting +125 on the over now.

gl bl

 

[Sonny Palermo]

I got "does not go the distance" at -440 too,
just looked again - it's at -900 now.

 

[badjab]

I agree that this one should not make the scorecards...now, picking a winner for this fight is another thing. Wlad has the edge with experience, height, boxing skills...BUT...there is no discounting the fact that he just can't take a heavyweight punch. I think in his earlier fights, Klitschko brought with him an intimidation factor because of his huge size and he was able to fight from a distance. Peter appears to be the real deal...BUT...he has yet to fight anyone anywhere close to the top 10 of the heavyweight division. If Wlad can keep Peter at bay with his jab and some well timed right hands, this could be an easy fight for him. If it degenerates into an all out slugfest, odds are Wlad will be looking up at the ref. That said, I think the Russian will be properly motivated (trained) for this fight and be ready to exchange without catching a flush punch and getting cold-cocked like Williams. In a pick 'em fight, I'll take the Wlad at +140 and the under 7.5.