1st Selection: (11) HIGH FLY (Nicholas Zito/Jerry Bailey)
The majority of pedigree experts loath in handicapping the Kentucky Derby every year. They scrutinize a horse?s breeding in depth and try to reveal whether his breeding along with his current form leading into the Derby will indicate the roses will be presented him in the winner circle on the first Saturday in May. Prior to the 2003 Kentucky Derby, majority of the public along with pedigree handicappers had made the regally bred Empire Maker the favorite to not only win the Kentucky Derby, but also the Triple Crown. By 1990 Kentucky Derby winner, Unbridled, by the champion broodmare Toussand, Empire Maker was hailed by his trainer as the best horse he had ever trained at that moment and the public bet accordingly making him the favorite to win the 129th Run for the Roses. However, it was the rival that he defeated, the New York-bred Funny Cide that defeated to score the 12-1 upset. By Distorted Humor he was ignored by the majority of public because of his pedigree, but based on form, class, speed, and pace, Funny Cide deserved more attention than his odds reflect and thus illustrating the importance of handicapping principles in evaluating this year?s Run for the Roses. This year?s selection embodies the qualities I look for when handicapping the Derby and around 10-1 or higher with the best money rider in the business, I look for High Fly to get first run on the pacesetters and prove tough customer to reel in in the final furlong of the Derby in which has spelled doom to several past Derby favorites in the past.
High Fly made his debut last fall at Calder where he went off as the 8-5 post time favorite and did not disappoint his backers drawing off to a dazzling 9-?-length victory leaving his field well-strung out a sign of a quality victory earning a 102 BRIS Speed Figure that is close to par for this year?s Derby. He returned five weeks later to face winners for the first time and his trainer William White felt the pressure of starting a potential superstar in the making. "I was really feeling the pressure for this one," said White. "He was so impressive and there was so much hullabaloo after he won his first start that I felt like I was saddling a favorite in a stakes race today." After a bit of a slow start, High Fly showed his expected early speed to duel through crisp fractions along with Dazzling Dr. Cevin. He left that rival in wake past the quarter pole and won easily. With his races well spaced, High Fly was pointed for the three-year old stakes at Gulfstream Park with the ultimate goal towards the classics.
The road to the Derby began with the one-mile Aventura Stakes on January 8 at Gulfstream Park and he delivered his third straight victory under a perfect ride with Eddie Castro in the irons. With his excellent tactical speed, High Fly chased the quick early fractions of the pacesetter Magoo?s Magic. He gradually moved up three wide into the teeth of a hot pace to engage the latter on the far turn, took command entering the stretch, and won as much the best illustrating that the ?big numbers were an indication of his true ability since he had never looked a really good horse in the eye,? said his trainer William White. It was considered after his win that he might skip one of the major preps for the Florida Derby and run in either the Fountain of Youth or Holy Bull. "Obviously, our primary object here this winter will be the Florida Derby, so the thought process becomes how to get him from the Aventura to the Kentucky Derby," said White. "The two major races in between are the Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth, and I'd be hesitant to try to run in both of those. Right now I'm leaning more towards skipping the Holy Bull and focusing on the Fountain of Youth." Rather than listen to his own advice, White decided to enter him in the Holy Bull because he was doing well and the timing between races was perfect. The decision to run him in the Holy Bull resulted in not only the colt?s first defeat, but Love Oak Plantation removing their priced Atticus colt from his barn.
In his first start around two turns and at 1-1/8 miles, High Fly suffered a miserable trip leaving from post position eight with a short run to the first turn, he was forced to chase the early leaders while running four paths wide into the first turn and into the backstretch. Continuing to run wide, he commenced a three wide move to engage the pace setters and the three of them were abreast entering the stretch. He continued his bid past mid-stretch but was forced to take up sharply when he drifted in behind the eventual winner in deep stretch. His drifting in was a sign of the difficult wide trip had on him and I believe that this race was inconclusive because of the trip he had to endure. His owners were so displeased by his performance that they transferred High Fly to two-time Derby winner Nicholas Zito and he pointed his new trainee to the Fountain of Youth on March 5 because Zito wanted ?find out where we stand." He dispelled thoughts of his distance limitations with a victory in the latter event.
He broke alertly under new rider Jerry Bailey to chase the uncontested 16-1 pacesetter B.B Best through moderate early fractions. He grabbed the lead from that stubborn foe past mid-stretch and was under drive through the lane to withstand the late rally of Bandini to win by three-quarters of a length.
Though the margin of defeat was small, the strength of that effort and his
105 BRIS Speed Figure was confirmed when the runner-up returned to win the
G1 Blue Grass Stakes, fifth-place finisher returned to run second in the G2 Lane?s End, and the eighth-place finisher returned to run second beaten less than a length in the G1 Santa Anita Derby. With this strong performance under his belt, he was pointed for his final Derby prep in the Florida Derby where he displayed a mirror like performance to his Fountain of Youth win but under different trip.
High Fly showed his keen tactical speed to be up with the early pace between rivals through a crisp 22.94-second opening quarter. Sensing the pace was too fast, jockey Jerry Bailey eased off and allowed him to chase B.B Best spirited splits of 45.89 and 1:09.92-seconds earning him above par BRIS E1 and E2 pace figures. He moved up to engage that rival approaching the quarter pole, put him away, and was under a driving finish to pull clear from the closing rally of his stable mate Noble Causeway earning a BRIS Speed Figure that is faster than par. Since that victory five weeks ago, a lot has been made of the hiatus between his latest victory and his start in the Derby but I believe that the spacing between starts is non factor considering his campaign this year.
He has four starts this year as a three-year old and three of them were at
1-1/8 miles with a total combined 35 furlongs (8+9+9+9) suggesting that he comes into this Derby in solid condition and with plenty of foundation for the Derby itself. Although his Tomlinson distance rating of 262 is very low, it must be noted that last year?s Derby one-two of Smarty Jones and Lion Heart had Tomlinson distance ratings of 257 and 286 respectively. In addition, he has the one aspect that makes horses such as High Fly dangerous and that is tactical speed. He has consistently shown the ability to sit off the early leaders, reach contention on the turn, and pounce on his rivals in the stretch with game determination to not quit in the heat of the battle.
As rider Jerry Bailey put it ? "I think the positive thing for me as a rider is that he's got multiple moves. He breaks well, first of all. He's forwardly placed, but does not have to be on or right up at the lead, and he's showing me that he has multiple gears so I can move him and place him at different points at the race as I see fit as the race unfolds and that's a big plus."
Though he has yet to run outside of his native Florida, trainer Nick Zito has given this colt plenty of time to acclimate to Churchill Downs including a race like work on May 1. Moreover, he gets two-time Derby winning rider Jerry Bailey to remain in the irons. As the forgotten part of Zito?s five horse uncoupled entry, I look for this home-bred colt to having something to say about this year?s Run for the Roses at a price that will be more than fair to compensate for the risk.
2nd Selection: (15) BANDINI (Todd Pletcher/John Velasquez)
I believe and like many other handicappers that the Florida-based three-year olds at Gulfstream Park where the elite of their group. The performances of High Fly, Bellamy Road, Flower Alley, and Coin Silver verify the notion that this year?s Derby winner could likely come out of Florida.
One three-year old that showed gradual improvement to reach the starting gate on the first Saturday is Bandini. A beautiful dark bay son of 2000 Kentucky Derby winner, Fusaichi Pegasus, Bandini has shown maturity in each of his four starts this year and has learn to harness his deadly early speed to stalk the leaders and strong stretch punch that can help his Eclipse Award winning trainer and jockey their first Kentucky Derby victory.
The majority of pedigree experts loath in handicapping the Kentucky Derby every year. They scrutinize a horse?s breeding in depth and try to reveal whether his breeding along with his current form leading into the Derby will indicate the roses will be presented him in the winner circle on the first Saturday in May. Prior to the 2003 Kentucky Derby, majority of the public along with pedigree handicappers had made the regally bred Empire Maker the favorite to not only win the Kentucky Derby, but also the Triple Crown. By 1990 Kentucky Derby winner, Unbridled, by the champion broodmare Toussand, Empire Maker was hailed by his trainer as the best horse he had ever trained at that moment and the public bet accordingly making him the favorite to win the 129th Run for the Roses. However, it was the rival that he defeated, the New York-bred Funny Cide that defeated to score the 12-1 upset. By Distorted Humor he was ignored by the majority of public because of his pedigree, but based on form, class, speed, and pace, Funny Cide deserved more attention than his odds reflect and thus illustrating the importance of handicapping principles in evaluating this year?s Run for the Roses. This year?s selection embodies the qualities I look for when handicapping the Derby and around 10-1 or higher with the best money rider in the business, I look for High Fly to get first run on the pacesetters and prove tough customer to reel in in the final furlong of the Derby in which has spelled doom to several past Derby favorites in the past.
High Fly made his debut last fall at Calder where he went off as the 8-5 post time favorite and did not disappoint his backers drawing off to a dazzling 9-?-length victory leaving his field well-strung out a sign of a quality victory earning a 102 BRIS Speed Figure that is close to par for this year?s Derby. He returned five weeks later to face winners for the first time and his trainer William White felt the pressure of starting a potential superstar in the making. "I was really feeling the pressure for this one," said White. "He was so impressive and there was so much hullabaloo after he won his first start that I felt like I was saddling a favorite in a stakes race today." After a bit of a slow start, High Fly showed his expected early speed to duel through crisp fractions along with Dazzling Dr. Cevin. He left that rival in wake past the quarter pole and won easily. With his races well spaced, High Fly was pointed for the three-year old stakes at Gulfstream Park with the ultimate goal towards the classics.
The road to the Derby began with the one-mile Aventura Stakes on January 8 at Gulfstream Park and he delivered his third straight victory under a perfect ride with Eddie Castro in the irons. With his excellent tactical speed, High Fly chased the quick early fractions of the pacesetter Magoo?s Magic. He gradually moved up three wide into the teeth of a hot pace to engage the latter on the far turn, took command entering the stretch, and won as much the best illustrating that the ?big numbers were an indication of his true ability since he had never looked a really good horse in the eye,? said his trainer William White. It was considered after his win that he might skip one of the major preps for the Florida Derby and run in either the Fountain of Youth or Holy Bull. "Obviously, our primary object here this winter will be the Florida Derby, so the thought process becomes how to get him from the Aventura to the Kentucky Derby," said White. "The two major races in between are the Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth, and I'd be hesitant to try to run in both of those. Right now I'm leaning more towards skipping the Holy Bull and focusing on the Fountain of Youth." Rather than listen to his own advice, White decided to enter him in the Holy Bull because he was doing well and the timing between races was perfect. The decision to run him in the Holy Bull resulted in not only the colt?s first defeat, but Love Oak Plantation removing their priced Atticus colt from his barn.
In his first start around two turns and at 1-1/8 miles, High Fly suffered a miserable trip leaving from post position eight with a short run to the first turn, he was forced to chase the early leaders while running four paths wide into the first turn and into the backstretch. Continuing to run wide, he commenced a three wide move to engage the pace setters and the three of them were abreast entering the stretch. He continued his bid past mid-stretch but was forced to take up sharply when he drifted in behind the eventual winner in deep stretch. His drifting in was a sign of the difficult wide trip had on him and I believe that this race was inconclusive because of the trip he had to endure. His owners were so displeased by his performance that they transferred High Fly to two-time Derby winner Nicholas Zito and he pointed his new trainee to the Fountain of Youth on March 5 because Zito wanted ?find out where we stand." He dispelled thoughts of his distance limitations with a victory in the latter event.
He broke alertly under new rider Jerry Bailey to chase the uncontested 16-1 pacesetter B.B Best through moderate early fractions. He grabbed the lead from that stubborn foe past mid-stretch and was under drive through the lane to withstand the late rally of Bandini to win by three-quarters of a length.
Though the margin of defeat was small, the strength of that effort and his
105 BRIS Speed Figure was confirmed when the runner-up returned to win the
G1 Blue Grass Stakes, fifth-place finisher returned to run second in the G2 Lane?s End, and the eighth-place finisher returned to run second beaten less than a length in the G1 Santa Anita Derby. With this strong performance under his belt, he was pointed for his final Derby prep in the Florida Derby where he displayed a mirror like performance to his Fountain of Youth win but under different trip.
High Fly showed his keen tactical speed to be up with the early pace between rivals through a crisp 22.94-second opening quarter. Sensing the pace was too fast, jockey Jerry Bailey eased off and allowed him to chase B.B Best spirited splits of 45.89 and 1:09.92-seconds earning him above par BRIS E1 and E2 pace figures. He moved up to engage that rival approaching the quarter pole, put him away, and was under a driving finish to pull clear from the closing rally of his stable mate Noble Causeway earning a BRIS Speed Figure that is faster than par. Since that victory five weeks ago, a lot has been made of the hiatus between his latest victory and his start in the Derby but I believe that the spacing between starts is non factor considering his campaign this year.
He has four starts this year as a three-year old and three of them were at
1-1/8 miles with a total combined 35 furlongs (8+9+9+9) suggesting that he comes into this Derby in solid condition and with plenty of foundation for the Derby itself. Although his Tomlinson distance rating of 262 is very low, it must be noted that last year?s Derby one-two of Smarty Jones and Lion Heart had Tomlinson distance ratings of 257 and 286 respectively. In addition, he has the one aspect that makes horses such as High Fly dangerous and that is tactical speed. He has consistently shown the ability to sit off the early leaders, reach contention on the turn, and pounce on his rivals in the stretch with game determination to not quit in the heat of the battle.
As rider Jerry Bailey put it ? "I think the positive thing for me as a rider is that he's got multiple moves. He breaks well, first of all. He's forwardly placed, but does not have to be on or right up at the lead, and he's showing me that he has multiple gears so I can move him and place him at different points at the race as I see fit as the race unfolds and that's a big plus."
Though he has yet to run outside of his native Florida, trainer Nick Zito has given this colt plenty of time to acclimate to Churchill Downs including a race like work on May 1. Moreover, he gets two-time Derby winning rider Jerry Bailey to remain in the irons. As the forgotten part of Zito?s five horse uncoupled entry, I look for this home-bred colt to having something to say about this year?s Run for the Roses at a price that will be more than fair to compensate for the risk.
2nd Selection: (15) BANDINI (Todd Pletcher/John Velasquez)
I believe and like many other handicappers that the Florida-based three-year olds at Gulfstream Park where the elite of their group. The performances of High Fly, Bellamy Road, Flower Alley, and Coin Silver verify the notion that this year?s Derby winner could likely come out of Florida.
One three-year old that showed gradual improvement to reach the starting gate on the first Saturday is Bandini. A beautiful dark bay son of 2000 Kentucky Derby winner, Fusaichi Pegasus, Bandini has shown maturity in each of his four starts this year and has learn to harness his deadly early speed to stalk the leaders and strong stretch punch that can help his Eclipse Award winning trainer and jockey their first Kentucky Derby victory.
