laa@KC Sat--some red flags on Junis through 2 starts

EXTRAPOLATER

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Feb 22, 2001
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Looking at about a 40% chance of rain at gametime, with snow apparently to follow later in the evening, so this game could very well be postponed.

However, I've been watching Junis in his last start vs Mariners. He has great numbers through 2 go's (1st @the non-existent Tigersticks, whcih I haven't seen). I was curious as he was not drafted in high esteem (29th round in 2011, 876th overall pick), he has not shown tremendous promise during his minor league career, and he is not projected to be very appealing by fangraphs and other prognosticators. He did have a good spring, but that can only carry so far.

Watching him vs M's, the guy couldn't find the plate. His fastball is nothing special and his off-speed stuff is evident from release and generally doesn't know where the strike zone is. I'd be careful getting too excited about the numbers through 2 starts.

Thought at first maybe push my luck on another Angels under (grabbed a piece of that 9.5 a couple days back and was lucky to catch that), but it opened 8.5-111 and its been pushed since to 8.5-120. If played, there is forecasted a massive wind blowing out to right field. Pass on the under, here...over, or laa team total over, maybe.

Richards has looked great in his return through 3 short outings. Probably continue that way--5-6 IP--and laa's BP is still a question mark in my mind, but the only way I could play this is the Angels in a crush-fest, run-line sitting +111, which may be an improvement from the opener as the moneyline opened -153, angels, and I now see -148.

I haven't seen much of Junis and, unfortunately, the line really isn't reflecting his misleading start anyways. If you have some evidence that he's the second coming of whoever then I'd be interested but, again, line ain't reflecting that anyways.

Junis, btw, is more of a fly-ball pitcher than a ground-ball one, so the wind factor comes into play. Angels won't swing at the same shit that M's were swinging at. He did show some control in the minors but also gave up homers, as he did in the bigs last year. I notice he did hit a lot of batters in the minors, and through the first 2 starts this year he has a 3/9 BB/K ratio--decent--but has also hit 3 batters; again, the off-speed stuff looks nowhere to be found.
 
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