We get a weekly here called Gaming Today, and Micheal Katz, a well known boxing scribe made a good point. Seems he feels we can get a better price on Lacy, if he is your choice here, at the British shops. Stands to reason as Brits may bet on their guy. Any thoughts?
Lacy-Calzaghe offshore lines
- Thread starter frank s.
- Start date
From what I've seen the UK books are about the same as ours right now...
Pinnacle -144...5dimes -145
Bet365 -140...Intertops -133 (draw loses)
By fight time the odds may be better at UK books but as of right now they are about the same
gl bl
Pinnacle -144...5dimes -145
Bet365 -140...Intertops -133 (draw loses)
By fight time the odds may be better at UK books but as of right now they are about the same
gl bl
Let me start by saying the best value on this fight is Calzaghe by decision +350. Check out the long list of mediocre fights that have gone 12 rounds with Calzaghe in the recent past...
97 Chris Eubank
99 Robin Reid
99 Rick Thornberry
00 David Starie
02 Charles Brewer
02 Miguel Jimenez
04 Kabary Salem
05 Evans Eshira
If these guys can go the distance with Joe, Lacy should have no problem. And I expect Joe to box Lacy from the outside all night long, and not going for the KO by punching witha puncher.
I think the great gardenweasel has a very good point about Lacy getting in trouble for hitting to the back of the head. Look at the way Lacy has finished his last two fights, he finished Reid and Pemb with wide shots to the side/back of the head. Reid said after the fight that Lacy kept hitting him "cuffing shots" behind the ear and he was absolutely right. These shots are technically legal and will be allowed here in the states, BUT this fight is whole different animal. Like gw said, Lacy could get dq'd. IMO if he hits Calzaghe like he was hitting Reid there's a good chance the ref will warn him, take points, and dq him. There's no doubt in mind that Calzaghe's camp will warn the ref about Lacy's tactics and he will be forced to respond considering the location and promotion of the fight.
I feel the above could play a huge role in this fight, but I'll also give my take on the fight assuming the ref stays out of it.
Calzaghe throws the straighter, sharper punches of the two, he has better boxing skills, he's a slick southpaw with a 3" height advantage and he's never been beat...not even close, and he's fighting in his backyard with Warren behind him.
And those aren't the only positives for Calzaghe, Lacy is very wide with his punches and leaves himself open on a regular basis, something a skilled fighter could easily take advantage of. Lacy has been in several close fights in last few years, and none of them were against fighters the quality of Calzaghe. Lacy had serious problems with Sheika, Williams, Vanderpool, and Wiggens in his last 7 fights. In all of those fights he was losing rounds early and bailed himself out late by catching his opponent with a big shot. Sheika was landing the straight right at will against Lacy, but he got scared held while Lacy outworked him for the close decision.
I'm a Lacy fan, but he needs to work on straighter punches and head movement. Believe me I hope Lacy wins, I've never been a fan of Calzaghe or Warren so a Lacy win would make me happier than cashing a ticket.
A few things Lacy has going for him...he's much younger and has been much more active lately. It might take Calzaghe a few rounds to get going and you know Lacy will start fast considering the situation.
Either way I see big value in Calzaghe by decisiion +350
gl bl
97 Chris Eubank
99 Robin Reid
99 Rick Thornberry
00 David Starie
02 Charles Brewer
02 Miguel Jimenez
04 Kabary Salem
05 Evans Eshira
If these guys can go the distance with Joe, Lacy should have no problem. And I expect Joe to box Lacy from the outside all night long, and not going for the KO by punching witha puncher.
I think the great gardenweasel has a very good point about Lacy getting in trouble for hitting to the back of the head. Look at the way Lacy has finished his last two fights, he finished Reid and Pemb with wide shots to the side/back of the head. Reid said after the fight that Lacy kept hitting him "cuffing shots" behind the ear and he was absolutely right. These shots are technically legal and will be allowed here in the states, BUT this fight is whole different animal. Like gw said, Lacy could get dq'd. IMO if he hits Calzaghe like he was hitting Reid there's a good chance the ref will warn him, take points, and dq him. There's no doubt in mind that Calzaghe's camp will warn the ref about Lacy's tactics and he will be forced to respond considering the location and promotion of the fight.
I feel the above could play a huge role in this fight, but I'll also give my take on the fight assuming the ref stays out of it.
Calzaghe throws the straighter, sharper punches of the two, he has better boxing skills, he's a slick southpaw with a 3" height advantage and he's never been beat...not even close, and he's fighting in his backyard with Warren behind him.
And those aren't the only positives for Calzaghe, Lacy is very wide with his punches and leaves himself open on a regular basis, something a skilled fighter could easily take advantage of. Lacy has been in several close fights in last few years, and none of them were against fighters the quality of Calzaghe. Lacy had serious problems with Sheika, Williams, Vanderpool, and Wiggens in his last 7 fights. In all of those fights he was losing rounds early and bailed himself out late by catching his opponent with a big shot. Sheika was landing the straight right at will against Lacy, but he got scared held while Lacy outworked him for the close decision.
I'm a Lacy fan, but he needs to work on straighter punches and head movement. Believe me I hope Lacy wins, I've never been a fan of Calzaghe or Warren so a Lacy win would make me happier than cashing a ticket.
A few things Lacy has going for him...he's much younger and has been much more active lately. It might take Calzaghe a few rounds to get going and you know Lacy will start fast considering the situation.
Either way I see big value in Calzaghe by decisiion +350
gl bl
Thanks for the insight. Lacy did fight at MEN back in 2003. Also as Katz has stated, Lacy is getting somewhat better at slipping punches. The Warren issue is of concern. This guy is a real piece of work. I honestly feel Lacy wants this fight just that much more than Calzaghe. It's time has come though, and it's probably a very nice payday for Joe. Lets face it, Lacy is still a little rough around the edges, and is a rough and tumble type of fighter which probably accounts for the "cuff" punches. I still feel Calzaghe, if Jeff fights a smart fight, will crack under relentless pressure. This fight, to me, is a who wants it more affair, and Lacy is, as Lawrence Taylor the middlelinebacker used to say, a "crazed dog"! MEN will be the house of pain on that day. I understand your value play at +350, but we've been seeing guys who were never stopped getting stopped. Dan Cunningham is the true road warrior trainer. He is also very smart. His charge will be well schooled in what needs to be done in this fight.
I hope you're right frankie
Sorry if my post was one sided and made it look like I'm predicting a Calzaghe win. As posted in my futures for the last month (and now in this weeks thread) I also played Lacy inside distance +170 as a very possible outcome and value play. I can't see Lacy winning a decision here, if he lands enough punches to win on the judges scorecards Calzaghe won't make it 12 rounds. Anything close goes to Calzaghe for sure, so its Lacy inside distance or nothing imo.
Calzaghe injured his hand in his last fight, another reason why I like Joe by decision. He knows he has the location and promotional advantage here, not to mention all the other advantages that would make it easy to outbox Lacy. He'd have to be a complete moron to trade with Lacy once in this fight, let alone often.
The way I see it...Lacy inside distance +170 or Calzaghe by decision +350 are the only options here. So I'm playing both and rooting for Lacy to bring it home
gl bl
Sorry if my post was one sided and made it look like I'm predicting a Calzaghe win. As posted in my futures for the last month (and now in this weeks thread) I also played Lacy inside distance +170 as a very possible outcome and value play. I can't see Lacy winning a decision here, if he lands enough punches to win on the judges scorecards Calzaghe won't make it 12 rounds. Anything close goes to Calzaghe for sure, so its Lacy inside distance or nothing imo.
Calzaghe injured his hand in his last fight, another reason why I like Joe by decision. He knows he has the location and promotional advantage here, not to mention all the other advantages that would make it easy to outbox Lacy. He'd have to be a complete moron to trade with Lacy once in this fight, let alone often.
The way I see it...Lacy inside distance +170 or Calzaghe by decision +350 are the only options here. So I'm playing both and rooting for Lacy to bring it home
gl bl
I understand your logic completely. Would agree these seem like the only two outcomes. But stranger things have happened. I don't LOVE Lacy here, just a strong lean. I feel Lacy is a work in progress, and if there ever was a more determined fighter going in, well, I don't know of one. Lacy, I feel, fits the description not of boxer-puncher, but of brawler-puncher-boxer. Maybe HE will see the canvas! GL to all.
