New Mexico +2.5 -110, 4 units
Think the key to this game will be the QB play and turnovers as both teams have pretty solid defenses and good running games. I have never been impressed with Anderson as he makes too many big mistakes and has thrown 23 INTs this season and taken 31 sacks. His completion percentage is also much lower than it should be considering he has one of the top RBs in the nation. Kelly does a much better job taking care of the ball and he also has some mobility which could be a major advantage. Lobos use a lot of blitzes on defense and brings people from all directions so I think they can put some pressure on Anderson and force him into some mistakes. Lobos have done a nice job against the better rush offenses they have faced holding Air Force to 158 yards on 44 carries, UNLV to 74 yards on 49 carries, Utah to 80 yards on 27 carries, Colorado St. to 111 yards on 40 carries, SDSU to 38 yards on 25 carries, and NMS to 106 yards on 38 carries. The only game where their defense really struggled was against Texas Tech which is understandable. Although they gave up 37 to UNLV, they gave up just 229 yds in that game and UNLV's scores were a result of 6 NM turnovers. Lobos were coming off a big win at Utah so had a bit of a letdown for that game. I'm not too impressed with any of OSU's wins this season as their best win was against BSU who I thought was overrated and they won that game only due to some questionable officiating. Lobos played in this bowl last year as well so they should be ready and I expect them to get the win.
Think the key to this game will be the QB play and turnovers as both teams have pretty solid defenses and good running games. I have never been impressed with Anderson as he makes too many big mistakes and has thrown 23 INTs this season and taken 31 sacks. His completion percentage is also much lower than it should be considering he has one of the top RBs in the nation. Kelly does a much better job taking care of the ball and he also has some mobility which could be a major advantage. Lobos use a lot of blitzes on defense and brings people from all directions so I think they can put some pressure on Anderson and force him into some mistakes. Lobos have done a nice job against the better rush offenses they have faced holding Air Force to 158 yards on 44 carries, UNLV to 74 yards on 49 carries, Utah to 80 yards on 27 carries, Colorado St. to 111 yards on 40 carries, SDSU to 38 yards on 25 carries, and NMS to 106 yards on 38 carries. The only game where their defense really struggled was against Texas Tech which is understandable. Although they gave up 37 to UNLV, they gave up just 229 yds in that game and UNLV's scores were a result of 6 NM turnovers. Lobos were coming off a big win at Utah so had a bit of a letdown for that game. I'm not too impressed with any of OSU's wins this season as their best win was against BSU who I thought was overrated and they won that game only due to some questionable officiating. Lobos played in this bowl last year as well so they should be ready and I expect them to get the win.
