Las Vegas Invitational

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1 unit):

Jim Furyk to win 11/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
Clearly the headline player in this week's field and deserving of his favourite's tag. He has retained his consistency throughout the season and has won two of his last nine events. With no other player having amassed as much money in this event - his takings are also double that of Love in 2nd place - he should certainly feel optimistic that he can secure his 4th Las Vegas Invitational title this week.

Stuart Appleby to win 25/1 e.w. @ Bet365, Victor Chandler and BlueSq
Having good experience of this event is imperative because of the pro-am format and while Appleby cannot claim to have won this title in the past, he did finish 2nd to Phil Tataurangi by a single shot last year. That seems to be the order of the day as he has managed to finish 2nd in his last two starts, including the American Express Championship last week. Winning may be a little problematic, but it is difficult to ignore this form.

Jonathan Kaye to win 50/1 e.w. @ Stan James, BetInternet and UKBetting
Also looked closely at Darren Clarke, but it is this price that is difficult to ignore. Whereas Clarke has not played in this event, Kaye crucially managed two top-3 finishes in 1999 and 2000, the first behind Furyk by a single shot. He has won this year (Buick Classic) and finished 2nd in the previous WGC event, the NEC Invitational, in August. A top-20 finish last week was a promising return after a five-week layoff and he certainly doesn't warrant that price this week.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

outrights to place only @ skybet

Kelly 9/1
Not a lot of pro stats here other than 4 top 5 and 9 top 10's in 26 events in a somewhat decimated field. Played decent last week and generally does well in pro-am format. Putts per green in reg 51st.

McCarron 12/1 Good form here with 2 top 5's last 3 here. Good pro-am record and putters have been leading indicator of winners on past events last month or so and Mc not to shabby at 27th .

Stankowski 12/1 another good pro am record with decent form here (6-mc-17th-46th 9th last 5) and good current form with 2 top 5's last 4--and another with putts per green in reg in top 50.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
adding to place at Boyles
Cink 10/1 Ditto course and current and pro am stats and ranks 11 putts/Gir's

 

[lal2000]

I've been quite silent this past year but watching and learning from you pros. A few thoughts of my own.

On the outrights, I quite like Robert Gamez to win 100/1 ew @ Sporting Odds & Victor Chandler. A longshot, but he's a local Vegas man who ranks 5th in eagles and 11th in birdies. His last good round was a tie for second at Wachovia in May, but he has apprently been practicing alot at the courses in Vegas so he may be in with a chance.

I have also done three small stake (.20 unit) E/W doubles pairing Gamez with Jimenez, Davis & Karlsson in the Dutch Open.

 

[He Hate Me]

Dont forget Chris Riley is UNLV alumni, and dont forget Phil always plays well here.

 

[He Hate Me]

another reason to like Furyk here is this tourney is 5 rounds.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

72 holes
McCarron -115 over Cejka @ 5 Dimes
Cink-110 over Cejka 365 (ties lose)
Stankowski -115 over Ogilvy @ 5 Dimes
Clarke -120 over Garcia @ $plays
Appleby -111 over Mick @ B&W

Basically fading Cejka with 2 that play well here and school is still out on Cejka in pro ams format.

Will have to throw normal fade in on Garcia and Mick who has been fading prop since Duval, however a bit scared on Mick as errant drives should be no prob here.Had several quality players to fade with here but will go officially with one. Garcia may not fair so well as in most pro ams as his etrocious putting can get on ones nerves with the distractions. He is leading tour in 3putts and final rd scor ave if he gets there is almost dead last on tour.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1 unit):

Robert Allenby to beat Rory Sabbatini -110 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Good performances in the last two years in this event by Sabbatini, but not in the best of form at the moment: Allenby has finished ahead of him in seven of their last eight common events across all Tours.

Jim Furyk to beat Stuart Appleby -137 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Appleby's 2nd place finish last week was the first time in five common events across all Tours that he had finished ahead of Furyk. With Furyk's record-breaking performances in this event, it is hard to see him make it two from six.
(available generally)

Joe Durant to beat Tommy Armour -130 @ Five Dimes
First time back in action since the career-changing win at the Texas Open, I fully expect Armour to extend his run of missed cuts in this event to four.

Chad Campbell to beat Scott McCarron -110 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Campbell has finished ahead of McCarron in four of their last five common starts (all Tours) and in 15 of 20 on the PGA Tour in the past year. This is not an even matchup.

Jim Furyk to beat Sergio Garcia -190 @ Pinnacle
And nor is this! Furyk holds a 10-1-1 h2h record against Garcia on the PGA Tour in the past week and with these pro-ams turning into putting contests, Garcia will surely struggle given last week's failings with the short stick.
(also available at Olympic, Aces, Sirbet and Five Dimes)

Billy Mayfair to beat Steve Lowery -125 @ WWTS
With just one cut made from his last five starts, Lowery is very opposable. Mayfair has only missed one of his last five and can boast two 2nd place finishes in this event in the past decade; Lowery has yet to finish in the top-15 in as many years.

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

I'll ride along with Kaye........what the hell lets throw DA in too.

Kaye 50-1 win; 9-1 top 5 .5 each (PGA)
Weibring 12-1 1/4 1234 .5 ew (Beards)
Howell 18-1 1/4 12345 .5 ew (Euro)

GL

 

[bombercoops]

Going to play my countryman with you stanley against sabbatini. Allenby looks like a good bet here.

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

I have a feeling about Kaye. I'm adding a healthy amount at 40/50-1. :shrug:

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

1st rd plays @ 5 dimes
C Campbell -110 over Estes
Kelly -104 over Garcia
Howell -115 over Allenby

All plays have am/pm adv on same course and all have significant before the cut scoring ave. Does not appear we will get wind adv on T Times however with all these amatuers dragging there feet and tromping on greens we should have putting adv.Shooting for 2 out of 3 on these.

 

[lostinamerica]

I'll try:

Chris Riley(40/1) for 0.40* e.w. @ 5 dimes

Flesch(+100) over Estes (Tournament) for 1* @ Olympic

GL

 

[sports student]

1sr round parlay at 5 dimes

Mediate over Faxon
Tway over Faxon

pays 2.43-1

5 dimes very seldom lets you play with or against the same person twice in one parlay, but it is possible today. Taking a shot against Faxon who is rated very low on Stan's compatability chart this week.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

1st rd results 3-0
C Campbell -110 over Estes win
Kelly -104 over Garcia win
Howell -115 over Allenby win

No plays today on yesterday angles as all tees are in sync however $play and Wsex no lines up yet.Also not many stats listed for yesterdays rds and playing LC&P at Highlands because of sparse grass However will try an eyeball a few.

Sabbatini -115 over Ogivey @ 5 dimes
Lickliter -127 over Armour @ 5 Dimes
Mick -111 over Garcia @ Pinnacle

Faded Ogilvey in 72 holes for lack of current play and cuts here in both prior attempts will try him again with Sab who usually does well in these shootouts.

Laying some heavy chalk on Lickliter who didnot play well yesterday however thisis strickly fade on Armour who likes the tables @ Vegas and has prob been donating some earnings from his past win.

Saw this Mick/Garcia match and had to laugh as I intially want to fade both but seriously would have passed if match was @ highlands with LC&P but @ Canyons little risk for errant drive and will come down to putting between these 2 and I have to favor Mick.

 

[lostinamerica]

Adding:

Chad Campbell(16/1) for 0.40* e.w. @ Bet365
I was on him the last two weeks . . . Those with significant local connections often have a tough time getting untracked, but their is often good value in backing those with pedigree once they get in the mix. Before logging on my computer this morning, I was favoring some action on Rich Beem, but 28/1 vs. 16/1 on Campbell quickly ruled that out . . . Even though the desert winds were down yesterday, the difference between morning and afternoon scores yesterday appears more like the difference between night and day. I hope the forecast for light winds again this afternoon doesn't get blown out of the water.

Dogs - Enjoy The Golf Channel - I know I do.

GL

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

2nd rd results 3-0

Sabbatini -115 over Ogivey @ 5 dimes win
Lickliter -127 over Armour @ 5 Dimes win
Mick -111 over Garcia @ Pinnacle win

Note 5 dimes incorrectly graded Sabb/Ogilvey as loss so if you happened to make wager,better check your results.

3rd rd
Don't see much as most these lines have been adjusted however no lines up at $plays or WSEX,maybe they will have some later.
Will play one however.

Mick -129 over Garcia @ Pinnacle

They have corrected this somewhat from yesterdays -111 but will still go at this price.Just how bad is his putting? Yesterday he ave323 off tee hit in high 80's% in fairways hit and GIR's and shot 1 under??He will have to shoot around 7 under today to make cut by my calculation and as day wears on will lose interest.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
To their credit 5 dimes had error corrected within 35 minutes of sending email:yup

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

at the cut 3rd rd 0-1 72 holes 4-0

3rd rd Mick/Garcia loss

72 holes
McCarron -115 over Cejka @ 5 Dimes Win
Cink-110 over Cejka 365 (ties lose) Win
Stankowski -115 over Ogilvy @ 5 Dimes Win
Clarke -120 over Garcia @ $plays Win
pending
Appleby -111 over Mick @ B&W 7 up

Outrights Kelly and McCarron inside top 10 Stank, and Cink down the board.

4th rd
Stankowski -122 over Parney @ Pinnacle

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

4th rd results 1-0
Stankowski -122 over Parney Win

5th rd
Furyk -135 over Howell @ $plays

Pushing the limits on odds I'll give but been lucky this week and lots of history on this play. 1st Furyk has made more money here than anyone and in almost equal events played has 10 top 5's vs Howells 1 this year. Biggest factor in this stat is final rd stats where Furyk (5th 69.9)comes on strong and Howell (126th 71.43)fades. Howell so far has it in that mode with rds of 63-65-70-69. We'll see if it continues.
++++++++++++++
correction Line is @ $plays

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

finals 5th rd 1-0 remaining 72 hole 1-0
5th
Furyk/Howell win
72 hole
Appleby/Mick win

Matches week 13-1 ytd 259-177
units week +11.71 ytd + 68.38

Outrights Mccarron (in playoff)Kelly 10th-Cink-18th-Stankowski 47th

Week+ 9units ytd +44.8

Playoff just beginning and I'll be pulling for Appleby with ya Stan.He left it short dead inthe jaws on 18.

Was a very lucky week as I don't generally like these shootouts,was fortunate to fade a few players pretty heavy and they all dumped. Was week nothing could go wrong as Flesch slaps at 3 incher and misses and lets Verplank (an unofficial last player discard)slip in a place

O/10101267/0000111
Single $10.00 Las Vegas Place Only Betting
Verplank S @ 16/1
O/10101267/0000110
Single $10.00 Las Vegas Place Only Betting
McCarron S @ 12/1
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
He got home--Nice one Stan:thumb:

 

[Stanley]

Cheers DTB Lucky or not, 13-1 in the matchups and a +20 units week is very impressive :clap:

Final update:

Matchups: 2-4-0; -2.82 units

Allenby/Sabbatini TIED (Loss)
Furyk/Appleby LOST by 9
Durant/Armour WON by 11
Campbell/McCarron LOST by 19
Furyk/Garcia WON by 8
Mayfair/Lowery LOST by 19

Outrights: 1-2; +13.63 units

Furyk 13th
Appleby 1st
Kaye mc

When Appleby bogeyed the last hole on Saturday night to half his lead from two shots to one, I knew that Sunday would be a tense affair ... and it was. McCarron was very impressive, but Appleby still had the upper hand until he dropped a shot on the 17th. It then became a matter of who could putt on the 18th green and luckily it was Appleby who prevailed when they returned for the first extra hole. Certainly made amends for Allenby's antics on the last hole when a triple-bogey seven meant a three-shot lead over Sabbatini evaporated into a losing tie. It he had just made double-bogey it would have been an impressive break-even return from the six matchups in which three were opposing the players were finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd in the championship!

PGA Tour ytd
Matchups: 141-88; +39.65 units
18-holes: 107-115; -43.67 units
Outrights: 33-96; +77.54 units

All Tours ytd
Matchups: 371-267; +147.17 units
18-holes: 291-265; -20.15 units
Outrights: 87-330; +15.53 units