Cbb: 169-158 (+9.2units)
** 5x **
Fresno State -2.5
JUST MISSED THE DANCE
There's no question that a bid to the NIT is a consolation prize for teams not invited to the Big Dance. It can be especially discouraging for a team who just missed a win in their conference tourney and must no go out on the road to face another equally disappointed team. Where is the edge? It lies with the home team. Starting with the idea that this road team would just as soon get it's season over with, we looked at all NIT opening round teams who lost in their conference tournament. Those teams were 54-67 against the spread. Here's the basic angle and the accumulating parameters with records in progression.
PLAY ON any NIT Round 1 home team if their opponent lost their previous game in a conference tournament.
That starts you off, as I said, with 67 winners in 121 tries for 55.4%.
ADD: We are an underdog or favored by 8 or less = 58-42; 58.0%
ADD: We failed to cover our last game = 44-28; 61.1%
ADD: Opponent lost his conference tourney game by 6 or less = 22-8; 73.3%
And the final touch gives us this sweet NIT Tourney system:
PLAY ON any NIT home underdog or favorite of -8 or less if he failed to cover his last game and his opponent is off a conference tourney loss of six or less in which he allowed more than 70 points.
That system is 12-3 for 80% winners and, in tonight's NIT action, gives us FRESNO STATE minus the points over Temple.
** 5x **
Fresno State -2.5
JUST MISSED THE DANCE
There's no question that a bid to the NIT is a consolation prize for teams not invited to the Big Dance. It can be especially discouraging for a team who just missed a win in their conference tourney and must no go out on the road to face another equally disappointed team. Where is the edge? It lies with the home team. Starting with the idea that this road team would just as soon get it's season over with, we looked at all NIT opening round teams who lost in their conference tournament. Those teams were 54-67 against the spread. Here's the basic angle and the accumulating parameters with records in progression.
PLAY ON any NIT Round 1 home team if their opponent lost their previous game in a conference tournament.
That starts you off, as I said, with 67 winners in 121 tries for 55.4%.
ADD: We are an underdog or favored by 8 or less = 58-42; 58.0%
ADD: We failed to cover our last game = 44-28; 61.1%
ADD: Opponent lost his conference tourney game by 6 or less = 22-8; 73.3%
And the final touch gives us this sweet NIT Tourney system:
PLAY ON any NIT home underdog or favorite of -8 or less if he failed to cover his last game and his opponent is off a conference tourney loss of six or less in which he allowed more than 70 points.
That system is 12-3 for 80% winners and, in tonight's NIT action, gives us FRESNO STATE minus the points over Temple.
