Also, you are correct in saying when it looks too good, it is usually....but any real student can figure that there are many reasons to play Butler here, some of which you have already pointed out..., I simply believe that Butler can still act tough, be mad about losing its last game, or whatever, and still win by less than 15.....
You have also been a bit decieving in your pro-butler points, you state that they have won the last six, but fail to point out that loyola covered 5 of those 7....
Loyola has a 33.2 to 29.2 rebounding edge...
Loyola is 7-1 ats on the road.
Butler has lost two of thier last three home games to teams comparable, if not worse than Loyola (in fact, Loyola knocked off Wisc-Mil on the road), the win came against resident powerhouse wisconsin GB)
Like I said, there are many justifications for Butler here, they have consitently covered following a loss, they have to be motivated facing the conference leader, Loyolay has weak defensive numbers on the road...etc...
15 is simply alot of points to be giving a team as good as Loyola...
Do I think this is a lock, hell no, just a play that will win 60% of the time....