~Lazy*Locks~..(wed) Big Play..

ironlock

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CBB...(59-52)...+12.6 units

4$=Loyola Chicago+15

Check it out and tell me I'm wrong here.....only thing against us here is Butler's ATS record after a loss...but 15, come on...
 
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superbook

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Butler has won last seven match-ups vs. Loyola.

Butler is the defending champion (last two years of the Horizon) and they're now 3-3 in league play while Loyola is 6-0. Perhaps a little of the "old show them who's still boss" play tonite?

Butler is coming off a bad one point loss at home in their last game.

Ironlock -- if you get a chance, check my thread for my play on this game. I think you'll like it.

gl
 

nighthorse

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This looks like a play for Captain Obvious!! I'll bite....Butler can still show em who's boss and win by 12. The Sag rates are rarely this off. Loy-Chi playing well. Too many pts. to turn down. Will keep your 2nd half angle in mind Super.
 

superbook

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Just a couple more facts to consider:

Loyola is 7-1 ATS on the road, but this is the same team that was picked to finish last in the Horizon in the pre-season coaches poll. Butler has won the conference title the last two years.

Before winning 3 of their last 4 on the road, Loyola had lost 25 straight.


Maybe they're getting their ATS wins by backdoor covers and opponents who take them too lightly. One of those three road wins was at St. Mary's!

I agree that Loyola is an improved team but at 6-0 in the conference I think they're overrated and at 3-3 Butler is underrated.

My lean would be to Butler, but I'm going to save my money for my second half play on Loyola.

If the line looks too good to be true it probably is.
 

ironlock

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Also, you are correct in saying when it looks too good, it is usually....but any real student can figure that there are many reasons to play Butler here, some of which you have already pointed out..., I simply believe that Butler can still act tough, be mad about losing its last game, or whatever, and still win by less than 15.....

You have also been a bit decieving in your pro-butler points, you state that they have won the last six, but fail to point out that loyola covered 5 of those 7....

Loyola has a 33.2 to 29.2 rebounding edge...
Loyola is 7-1 ats on the road.
Butler has lost two of thier last three home games to teams comparable, if not worse than Loyola (in fact, Loyola knocked off Wisc-Mil on the road), the win came against resident powerhouse wisconsin GB)

Like I said, there are many justifications for Butler here, they have consitently covered following a loss, they have to be motivated facing the conference leader, Loyolay has weak defensive numbers on the road...etc...

15 is simply alot of points to be giving a team as good as Loyola...

Do I think this is a lock, hell no, just a play that will win 60% of the time....
 

Valuist

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Going back to the 99-00 season to now, Butler is 6-5-2 ATS after a loss. If you like Loyola, don't let this Butler # stand in the way.
 

redsfann

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not only does Loyola keep this close,

not only does Loyola keep this close,

but they have a great chance of winning this one outright. Have seen both these teams twice this season, and like Superlock says, I believe Loyola is a bit overrated, while Butler is a bit underrated.
For Butler to cover this number, they are going to have to score somewheres around 70 points. Butler only gives up 57.4 points per game in league play--- so if they give up their avg. tonight-- they have to score 71.
On the other hand, Loyola is giving up an avg. of 65 points in league play-- which leads me to believe thats how Vegas came up with the 14.5 point line.

What really has me liking Loyola plus the points tonight, though is David Bailey. He is the Horizon League's leading scorer at 22.8 points per game while standing a generously listed 5 foot 8 inches-- as if anyone listed at 5'8" could be listed generously. I say hes no more that 5'6"
Anyway, to make a short story long; and to get out of Ironlock's thread before he gets P.O'd at me...;)

Take the Ramblers plus the generous points and cash a winning ticket tonight........:D
 

superbook

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From Fletcher's post:

after playing poor against wis mil and losing on home court,the word is out that butler will make some-one pay that loss was a shot to there man hood. they were in the gym at 4:30 each morning since that lose well as a coach i can tell you players hate it when you do that to them after they need a kick in the ass,and they know the only way out of the dog house is to put a hurt on someone and butlers coach has no problem in running score up if he gets a chance.

Ironlock -- yes I think Butler might be up by 15 or more at the half and that is when I will be looking to make my second half play.

gl
 

djv

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Gooood stuff

Gooood stuff

This kind of give and take is what gets my attetion. Win or loose the reason for playing Loyola seem the way to go. Now we have others going the other way. But only one way we will all find out is let-em play the game. It does seem reasons for Loyola are stronger.
 

ironlock

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Well Call me a sucker...!



The secret to handicapping is finding a line that seems absolutely rediculous, and then bet it that other way.....complete mindf*ck.

2$=Iowa State+11.
 
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