Lesson For 2nd Half Bettors

[ESQAJM]

I couldn't believe my eyes when I read all the posts at dr. freeze's thread "get this 2nd half" regarding who to play in the 2nd half of the Phil/Dallas game. Everyone wanted to play Phil -6.5 to 7.5 to continue their domination of Dallas in the 2nd half.
Out of all the posts no one picked Dallas plus the points.

One thing I have learned in 40 years of betting is, don't bet that a team giving its opponent a whupping at 1/2 time will continue doing the same thing in the 2nd half. I posted a message saying don't bet Phil in the 2nd 1/2 as they will not want to embarass Dallas and will probably run the ball the entire 2nd half. I was wrong for the first series of plays in which Phil passed the ball and got a TD. After that for the rest of the 2nd half they ran the ball, even on third and long. They took out their starters and played 2nd and 3rd stringers. Dallas won the second half and actually outscored Phil. A Dallas bettor didn't even need the points. I hope my post saved some of you some money by talking you out of a Phil bet. But the thing that still mystifies me is how all of the sofisticated bettors posting messages on the thread could have been so overwhelmingly in favor of Phil for the 2nd half.

 

[Patience]

You missed my thread

 

[yyz]

It's called, "gambling".

Dallas showed nothing. A couple of freak plays, which can happen, got them on the board.

Philly didn't need to score anymore, and that was the chance we took. I'm sure that I wasn't the only one who stated that Philly would rest the starters, but still....I thought it was a worth while wager.

What I find hard to believe, is that you would come in here and make this post after Philly -'6 lost.

I would think with your 40 years of experience, you would know better.

 

[dr. freeze]

no kidding.....

everyone is an expert after the game is over.....

 

[ESQAJM]

First of all I made the post at half time of the game, not after the game. I strongly said don't bet Philly and give 7.5. I also said don't take the Over which happened to win by a last second cover. That was just the luck factor.

The purpose of my post was to point out that I learned certain things over 40 years of betting and one of the things is, don't back a second half favorite when it is whupping its opponent at half-time. Maybe it will save some of you guys money next time. I wasn't saying "I told you so". That's all.