Let’s see

[Slumdog]

Parlays lost Monday and Tuesday. -4000 on week. I noticed the books have adjusted. It started last week. I must have not been the only one picking them off with heavy faves. They are really juicing them up and affecting the payouts. What was -900 before is now -1500. Huge difference. I need them to start getting burned now. This strategy won’t work as well at these prices. Not good.

I’ll be back if I think any combo has good value tonight

Good luck madjackers.

 

[Real_Vision]

Interesting… All I will say is the point of abandonment / capitulation is usually when you need to lean the hardest. The fact you have caught on and are cautious is exactly the mechanism for reverse movement.

just putting that out there, doesn’t mean you’re wrong.

Any theories on what’s caused this shift? Seasonality? Or just the books taking more $ off the table because they can (or were getting beat to a degree?) Just curious, I don’t play very heavy favs often, anything above 4.5 / 5 buying points or using ML’s like you have- or waiting to play in game.

i have noticed some juice, and the % between a ML dog and the ML fav expanding. Is that what you are saying too? For example -350 fav +225 on the other side, whereas I’d like to get +260-+275 there. Maybe that’s unrelated, interested but not sure how to account for it

 

[Slumdog]

Yes. The spreads have also widened. They are juicing the faves to higher levels.

I’m sure other players caught on and were cashing the last 4-6 weeks. Many heavy faves didn’t cover the spread but they were regularly winning. Minimal upsets. I cashed many parlays. Books obv noticed. I’m sure many other players were doing the same.

 

[Real_Vision]

crap. My only play so far today a 2-tm ML parlay with a 6 pt fav and a 7.5.

good stuff thank you.

 

[Keyser Soze]

Slum...

A lot of these places use algorithms for each player to see his/her betting tendencies. I "bet" if you opened another account with a different name and contact info, you would get the same lines that you were getting before—just a thought. I have used this workaround in the past.

 

[Real_Vision]

Slum...

A lot of these places use algorithms for each player to see his/her betting tendencies. I "bet" if you opened another account with a different name and contact info, you would get the same lines that you were getting before—just a thought. I have used this workaround in the past.

Now we’re talking… indeed they do, it’s actually kind of “malicious” if you think about it. I don’t think the avg gambler, even some of the experienced, realize the machines learn and adapt, and will try to lure you into the worst possible position at the worst possible payout.

live betting is the epitome of this crap, i have 4 friends & fam logins at 1 place but only bet with the 1. (just kidding web crawlers i love you). My name is Stan Marsh.

and locally they use FOMO to move lines in the hour before a game to pile ppl in at less value. I look for this to take the other side

trying to stay a step ahead is hard dude. But they are at the end of the day idiot machines that show their hands like bad poker players. But as you said its impossible to collaborate at depth or discuss because we are all “handled” differently. I was killing it with unders in nat’l tv nba games for a period this year, over the last months the lines at one book stay dangerously low now, because it knows i won’t bet over and has to make that the only attractive option.

fun and games.

 

[Keith 1]

Yes. The spreads have also widened. They are juicing the faves to higher levels.

I’m sure other players caught on and were cashing the last 4-6 weeks. Many heavy faves didn’t cover the spread but they were regularly winning. Minimal upsets. I cashed many parlays. Books obv noticed. I’m sure many other players were doing the same.

Happens in baseball every year come the "dog days of summer". Lines go through the roof in August/September, with teams routinely priced as favorites of -300, -350 or more ! Those lines almost never happen before the All Star break.

 

[capattack]

Now we’re talking… indeed they do, it’s actually kind of “malicious” if you think about it. I don’t think the avg gambler, even some of the experienced, realize the machines learn and adapt, and will try to lure you into the worst possible position at the worst possible payout.

live betting is the epitome of this crap, i have 4 friends & fam logins at 1 place but only bet with the 1. (just kidding web crawlers i love you). My name is Stan Marsh.

and locally they use FOMO to move lines in the hour before a game to pile ppl in at less value. I look for this to take the other side

I agree with this. I consistently see live lines getting juiced more heavily in the direction that I bet pregame. For example if I took Under 136 pregame I'll see the under live lines consistently at -115 to -125 regardless of the live total

 

[Slumdog]

Slum...

A lot of these places use algorithms for each player to see his/her betting tendencies. I "bet" if you opened another account with a different name and contact info, you would get the same lines that you were getting before—just a thought. I have used this workaround in the past.

Holy crap. I bet you’re right. They must have changed my profile !

 

[Keyser Soze]

Happens in baseball every year come the "dog days of summer". Lines go through the roof in August/September, with teams routinely priced as favorites of -300, -350 or more ! Those lines almost never happen before the All Star break.

That's because teams that are out of the race start playing for draft postion.

 

[Keith 1]

That's because teams that are out of the race start playing for draft postion.

Baseball ? Respectfully of course, I am not so sure I agree with that. Even the crappiest team in baseball will win 60+ games. I don't think anyone is tanking. If anything, I think guys are trying to pad their stats to use in salary arbitrations and to try to obtain bigger free agency contracts.

 

[Real_Vision]

Holy crap. I bet you’re right. They must have changed my profile !

And the worst part lies here. Sharing information becomes more difficult because we all have unique experiences to a degree. That’s why , no offense to you SD, nothing personal, but it’s worth questioning / digging deeper anytime we come across what you found, because the perception and reality are tricky nowadays.

The funny part is as they juice favs, the inevitable outcome is either less transactions or more pt spread underdog bets, which will just deflate those payouts and round n round n round…

 

[Real_Vision]

Baseball ? Respectfully of course, I am not so sure I agree with that. Even the crappiest team in baseball will win 60+ games. I don't think anyone is tanking. If anything, I think guys are trying to pad their stats to use in salary arbitrations and to try to obtain bigger free agency contracts.

Correct. I had a side bet with a friend on my fav team to lose 100 games in 2015 or 2016 (somewhere before Hoskins and close to Ryan Sandberg? ) and i think they lost 99. Not like close to 99, exactly 99

 

[Keyser Soze]

Baseball ? Respectfully of course, I am not so sure I agree with that. Even the crappiest team in baseball will win 60+ games. I don't think anyone is tanking. If anything, I think guys are trying to pad their stats to use in salary arbitrations and to try to obtain bigger free agency contracts.

We can agree to disagree, but if you look closely at those -350's, you'll see the correlation with cellar dweller teams. They bring up prospects to get AB's, expand rosters, and have likely traded most of their studs at the trade deadline, so their current lineup doesn't come close to their opening-day lineup.

 

[Keith 1]

We can agree to disagree, but if you look closely at those -350's, you'll see the correlation with cellar dweller teams. They bring up prospects to get AB's, expand rosters, and have likely traded most of their studs at the trade deadline, so their current lineup doesn't come close to their opening-day lineup.

There is no MLB team that should be -350 (or more) over any other MLB team. Ever. And so it is not just against teams with triple A call-ups. It is anytime the Yankees (with Cole) or the Dodgers (with Kershaw) play any under .500 team. After August. Not before. And I don't think that a few different players justifies the line going from -185 in May to -360 in August. If for no other reason than the fact that some of these call-ups are the team's best prospects, and are many times better than the guys who were in the Opening Day lineup.

 

[Keyser Soze]

There is no MLB team that should be -350 (or more) over any other MLB team. Ever. And so it is not just against teams with triple A call-ups. It is anytime the Yankees (with Cole) or the Dodgers (with Kershaw) play any under .500 team. After August. Not before. And I don't think that a few different players justifies the line going from -185 in May to -360 in August. If for no other reason than the fact that some of these call-ups are the team's best prospects, and are many times better than the guys who were in the Opening Day lineup.

Well, then I guess you are loading up on those plus 300's? Hey, I agree the numbers are inflated, but if they weren't getting any action, they wouldn't set them there.

 

[Keith 1]

Well, then I guess you are loading up on those plus 300's? Hey, I agree the numbers are inflated, but if they weren't getting any action, they wouldn't set them there.

I stay away from those games as best as I can. A team that is +300 is usually (although not always) that way for a reason. LOL.

 

[Smitty]

There is no MLB team that should be -350 (or more) over any other MLB team. Ever.

Last year was the first time I regularly bet baseball, and I definitely saw a lot more games at -300 or higher in the 2nd half of the season. I think it's just by that point in the season, we have learned which teams are really, really bad. The lines probably gradually adjust through the season. It just becomes more noticeable once you hit that -300 mark.

That said, I started tracking it some time around mid-season. Betting against every fav that was at least -300 was profitable. We'll see if that continues this year. But what you said here was exactly my line of thinking. No MLB team should EVER be -300 or higher. Especially in today's game, where even the top starting pitchers rarely go more than 7 innings (if that).

 

[Slumdog]

Just going to play it out this week. My strategy no longer has value. Now have to include more spread bets ti get the payouts I would get on -8 and above moneyline home faves.

 

[Four Corners]

Parlays lost Monday and Tuesday. -4000 on week. I noticed the books have adjusted. It started last week. I must have not been the only one picking them off with heavy faves. They are really juicing them up and affecting the payouts. What was -900 before is now -1500. Huge difference. I need them to start getting burned now. This strategy won’t work as well at these prices. Not good.

I’ll be back if I think any combo has good value tonight

Good luck madjackers.

If I recall you use publicly traded books? DK and such. My main book is offshore and a MJ sponsored site and am generally happy with. They do not post/offer ML odds if spread is 14 or higher. I live in NC and DK isn't legal here...yet! Any other sites (preferably MJ sponsored) that allow higher ML offers?