Lets work together and nail MNF!!! Post your best bet here!

[Nickelback]

I'll add my two cents:

First off, I'm not very lucky with playing the totals and I'm really not sure about this one. . . perhaps a slight lean to the over.

So that leaves me to picking a side since my book doesn't have any props up yet. At first glance, I think the easy selection to make is the Vikings while the more difficult selection is the Giants. To my surprise, it appears there is a slight public lean to the Giants.

Reasons why I will be taking the "easier selection" this time:

The Vikings are a completely different team at home as I'm sure most of you know.

Revenge from the NFC Championship game.

Giants are similar to the Bucs and Packers who have more of an advantage when playing on grass instead of an artificial surface. Vikings have already taken down the Bucs and Packers at home. . . Giants have only played one game on an artificial surface this season (correct me if I'm wrong!).

Finally, the Vikings are one of the worst at running the ball but one of the best at passing. The Giants are one of the best defensive rush teams, but less than average against the Pass. This should fall right into the hands of the Vikings and perhaps open up the run as the game wears on.

Only reason to be concerned:

Giants lost by only a point at St Louis, covering the spread and appearing to be able to handle their own on an artificial surface.

I'm considering an average size wager on the Vikings which is my best bet up to this point. Lets work together on this game and post your best bet (only one best bet please) for the game under this thread (preferably a wager on the total or side). For those of you who do not want to look through the entire thread, I'll edit this message throughout the day and post the numbers below for an easy consensus:

After 9 posts:

# of cappers on the over: 0
# of cappers on the under: 2
# of cappers on the Viks: 3
# of cappers on the Giants: 3

Feel free to post your reasons for your best bet (if you wish) and those who are interested can scroll down and read them.


[This message has been edited by Nickelback (edited 11-19-2001).]

[This message has been edited by Nickelback (edited 11-19-2001).]

 

[GM]

I handicap using a combination of situational and statistical methods. I prefer situational handicapping; I find I get better results. But on this game I am getting a STRONG STRONG statistical indicator on the Giants.

This game lines up similarly to how Minny/Philly lined up last week. According to my system, teams that play a series of tough defensive teams in a row (4 games or more), and then play a soft defence just explode on offence. I can't/won't explain how I come up with my rankings. Suffice to say I have a good system, but the majority of the time I only give it heed if the situational factors line up FIRST. These two cases are the exceptions....

Last week: Philly had played the defences ranked #9, 11, 17 and 9 again in the prior four weeks...and then faced #31 Minnesota. This is a huge disparity and is worthy of consideration of a play on it's own, without situational factors. Sure enough, Philly scored 41 pts after putting up an average of 15 pts the previous four weeks.

This week the Giants look even stronger. In the previous six weeks the Giants have played defences #5, 3, 2, 5, 7 and 9, and now face #31. In the time I have been running this system I have never seen a team face so many Top 10 defences in succession, and then immediately face the absolute worst.

So I think I am going to have to go with NYG here, and maybe the Over as well. I can't ignore the stats, though they are not always perfect. Sorry about the long writeup but I really feel this is an exceptionally strong play.

 

[GM]

To add a little bit...

1) I am a pretty much a non-believer in "revenge". I think it's one of the most overused and misused angles in handicapping and rarely translates into wins. For that matter, I am also a non-beleiver in "must-wins". If anything I find teams in must-win situations to be great bet-againsts. So for me, the 41-0 playoff thrashing the G-Men gave Minny last year is not much of a factor.

2) I LOVE the way the Vikings players, in particular Randy Moss, have been sniping at each other. The Vikings strike me as a time bomb ready to go off at any time, and I think if they get a bit frustrated and get down by 10 or so they could just self-destruct. At least, I hope that's the case.

 

[Double Two]

I like under 44 as the Vikings on Monday Night have gone under 4 of their last 5. The G-Men play tough defense and run the ball so Minny will not have as many chances to score. Looking for a close game with the score around 17-13. Good Luck!!!

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Don't know if posting link is cosher(despite being free pick site) so will just post write up. It is by Minnesota Mike whom I have followed for years.Will add to till of tonights stuff since he has 10 week monday night win streak on line.With that being said I have not bet a Monday night play

and will pass tonight.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


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SUN 11/18/01
Jets vs Dolphins: Jets win streak against Miami has to end sometime but until it does well take the Jets getting 6 pts.
Take the Jets.


Bears vs Bucs: Bucs are barely scraping along. Bears came up much closer than final score. Inside the 20, down by 8 with under 2 minutes to go the rally fell short. Packers are well above Bucs and if Bears want to contend for title they'll need some road wins. They aren't getting much respect and have been scortching ATS. I like them getting anything over 3 and currently they are getting 6.
Take the Bears.


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SNF
Rams vs Patriots: Rams made the Panthers (and me) look like a fools LW. The Panthers are that bad and the Rams almost as good as they were made to look. This is the toughest spot for Rams. Outdoors with the weather turning colder, especially a night game. Don't underestimate the night factor. Day or night looks the same in a dome but outdoors its whole nother world. Patriots defense has been doing a great job of forcing the T.O.s. Rams are vulnerable to T.O.s as exposed by the Saints. QB Brady playing great. Pats need this to stay in the div race. Like the Pats getting 8 @ home. Call it a dog day Sunday.
Take the Patriots.


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MON 11/19/01
Giants vs Vikings: My 10 game MNF win streak is on the line here! Yes, MNF has been good going 10-0. Which Vikings will show up? The one that beat the Packers or the pathetic excuse of a team that has been losing 40 something to 10 something? I've rarely seen such poor defense. Players just watching everyone else expecting someone else to make the tackle. Another blowout by Giants would be good and then maybe Vikings could pressure HC Green to get out. The problem with Green is he is never accountable. He always has excuses. Only Vikings wins have been vs div foes. I doubt they'll win a non-division game. I doubt they'll get revenge for LY PO loss. Giants have been flat since loss to Eagles. They were fortunate to pull out win vs Cowboys and didn't pull away from Cards despite controlling the line of scrimmage. I don't expect a shootout here. Ball control on both sides will be the strategy. Not willing to take the Vikings favored over anyone.
Take the Under.



[This message has been edited by DOGS THAT BARK (edited 11-19-2001).]

 

[JSMOOTH]

What business do the Vikings have giving anybody points?

Sorry, I don't time to post more thoughts on the game, but I'm on MINN-2.

BTW- after a 10-2-1 run in the NFL...I went 4-5 this week.

 

[nyraider]

minny 5-units

 

[4bubba]

MNF
As everyone remembers it was
NY GIANTS (41) @ MIN (00)

Revenge is for good teams, the Vikings are not good. the only way the Vikings can win this game is if the GIA dont take the game seriously, which wont be the case. The GIA have not looked good lately and need this game.

The GIA showed earlier this year that their defense can stop any offense ( @STL -- in a dome).

MIN defense cannot stop anyone.

And the GIA are an underdog!

Large play on N.Y.


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indecision is the KEY to flexibility

[This message has been edited by 4bubba (edited 11-19-2001).]

 

[CryBoy]

NYG +2.5

playoff bound vs. homeward bound

we'll go with the playoff team in this spot